"Take that Calgary Puck!" — SN960 and Calgary sports media discussion

[GranteedEV]

Originally Posted by GreenLantern2814

I think it's apparent that both are wrong about the goaltending. Smith isn't the answer, Rittich isn't either.

34 GP 20-5-5 with a 2.66 GAA and a .911 save percentage.

vs

34 GP 15-9-3 2.60 GAA and a .912 save percentage.

One is David Rittich, the other is Karri Ramo (14/15). So unless you're one of those people who thought Ramo was the answer, you shouldn't think Rittich is either. He's a good half of a platoon.

Goaltending remains the team's Achillies tendon.

What you are missing is that League AVG% has droppes from .911 that year to .904 this year DESPITE more consistency with respect to weak rollers being considered shots these days. This is because of equipment changes.

A .911 has Rittich tied with Hellebuyck at 10th of the 23 goalies who have started at least as many games.

Of the top 23 goalies in starts in 2014-15, the 10th best SV% was Luongo at .921

So that is who you should compare Rittich to.

Ramo was 29th of 37 who started as many games.

Not close.

[DeluxeMoustache]

Originally Posted by transplant99

Ummmmmm

Since November 25th

Rittich 12-3 2.99 GAA .901 save%

Smith 11-4 2.73 GAA .905 save%

Not cherry picking dates, but looking at the whole year.

Rittich in 31 starts has let in 4 or more goals a total of 5 times.
Twice in regulation: 5 vs SJ and 6 vs TB.
The other three times, he has let in the 4th goal in OT.

Smith has let in 4 or more 11 times in 28 starts (Cherry picking dates, 3 of his last 5, 5 of his last 10)

Opposition: Arizona is a bad team that has scored 5 goals 8 out of 60. Meanwhile, TB has scored 5+ in 22 of their last 41 (!)

The team is giving Smith starts to get his confidence up. They need to. It’s not a bad thing.

[transplant99]

Originally Posted by DeluxeMoustache

Not cherry picking dates, but looking at the whole year.

Rittich in 31 starts has let in 4 or more goals a total of 5 times.
Twice in regulation: 5 vs SJ and 6 vs TB.
The other three times, he has let in the 4th goal in OT.

Smith has let in 4 or more 11 times in 28 starts (Cherry picking dates, 3 of his last 5, 5 of his last 10)

Opposition: Arizona is a bad team that has scored 5 goals 8 out of 60. Meanwhile, TB has scored 5+ in 22 of their last 41 (!)

The team is giving Smith starts to get his confidence up. They need to. It’s not a bad thing.

No question Rittich WAS better...by a lot.

We are talking about now...and moving forward, there most certainly is a debate as to who is playing better.

[djsFlames]

Let's see Rittich draw in against teams that aren't Tampa Bay and we'll see then what the gap is.

When his last game was against a team that is pretty much an automatic loss for any club in the league right now on what was a poor 200ft effort by the team it's pretty hard to gauge anything.

But I suspect it's Smith yet again tomorrow so we won't know anything for a bit yet.

[GreenLantern2814]

Originally Posted by GranteedEV

What you are missing is that League AVG% has droppes from .911 that year to .904 this year DESPITE more consistency with respect to weak rollers being considered shots these days. This is because of equipment changes.

A .911 has Rittich tied with Hellebuyck at 10th of the 23 goalies who have started at least as many games.

Of the top 23 goalies in starts in 2014-15, the 10th best SV% was Luongo at .921

So that is who you should compare Rittich to.

Ramo was 29th of 37 who started as many games.

Not close.

In 14-15, the Flames ranked 14th in goals against.

This year they rank 13th. They just also happen to be 3rd in goals for, which means they have a legit shot to win it all.

But this is goaltending of about the same consistency as 14/15. At times brilliant, often competent, and sometimes head scratchingly bad. Times two guys.

It's going to be on Peters to sense who's hot and know when to change them out, but as this point I don't think either guy deserves much leash.

[DeluxeMoustache]

Originally Posted by transplant99

No question Rittich WAS better...by a lot.

We are talking about now...and moving forward, there most certainly is a debate as to who is playing better.

Yeah, I understand what you are trying to say and like that people think Smith is finding his mojo.

Quality of competition actually matters a whole bunch here. Each goal affects save percentage in a small sample by a lot.

I was at the Arizona game, pretty close to the net and saw lotsa muffins off the blocker. That’s a bad team. And that’s fine, he did what he had to do, but he wasn’t challenged by any means.

Rittich has definitely allowed 11 goals on his last 58 shots, which really is the thing making this any kind of debate in the minds of some. Recency bias and all, stats without context.

He has faced 608 shots total since your chosen date of Nov 25 (cherry picked with Smith’s hot streak included and Rittich’s worst games bookended) and allowed 60, right?

It would be .911 in your date range if you exclude the last 3 games.

I just don’t see anything Smith has faced that was remotely like Tampa (who has scored 5+ in 22 of their last 41), in terms of offense and in terms of the Flames basically being destroyed by a greatly superior opponent.

Washington had to sit Ovechkin, and still got 4. Florida is not a good team. Arizona looked barely like a NHL team.

I think it’s arguably as simple as this. If Smith got the Tampa game, the stats aren’t close and there is no ‘controversy’

[Northendzone]

this morning they were playing the exchange between pinder and wills. i thought pinder was argumentative.

boomer seemed to be mocking him a bit after the clip was done.

the reality is that the flames goaltending appears to be their achilles heal. and the chances of them finding a definitive answer by the trade deadline seem low. So you will jsut have to roll with smith and BSD and hope for the best

[Toonage]

#teampinder

[manwiches]

Originally Posted by Northendzone

this morning they were playing the exchange between pinder and wills. i thought pinder was argumentative.

boomer seemed to be mocking him a bit after the clip was done.

the reality is that the flames goaltending appears to be their achilles heal. and the chances of them finding a definitive answer by the trade deadline seem low. So you will jsut have to roll with smith and BSD and hope for the best

I get the impressions Pinder rubs guys the wrong way. He's a borderline bully I feel.

Relistening this morning, I think Pinder had the needle in his hand yesterday, and was ready to needle Wills a bit. Wills wasn't having it, and fought back.

I'm not disagreeing with either guys point, but I feel Wills had finally had enough of Pinder's crap

[heep223]

Not a fan of Wills at all. If Pinder wasn’t around all the boys would just be blowing smoke up each other and the team’s ass. Count me as a major Pinder supporter. I’ve also talked to him at length in person and he’s a really good guy.

[Classic_Sniper]

Originally Posted by manwiches

I get the impressions Pinder rubs guys the wrong way. He's a borderline bully I feel.

Relistening this morning, I think Pinder had the needle in his hand yesterday, and was ready to needle Wills a bit. Wills wasn't having it, and fought back.

I'm not disagreeing with either guys point, but I feel Wills had finally had enough of Pinder's crap

I actually thought Wills took it to a personal place there. The whole "even you must feel Smith has been Pinder" comment started the whole thing. Then the personal shot that he has a hard time giving Smith credit or the final "here's the difference between you and me" stuff was very unnecessary. I don't think anything that Pinder said was incorrect though. He seems to have very high standards and wants to see more of this before anointing that Smith is back.

I'm in a similar boat. Smith has had 3 good games, but he hasn't proven to me that he's back yet. We've seen Smith have a good stretch and then fall off completely after. I'd keep giving Smith games to see what we actually have though. The concern to me all season and still to this date hasn't been Smith's overall game, that's been pretty good, its been his leaky goals through his 6 and 7 hole. I want to see him figure that out before the season is over. Once that has been tested and proven to be adequate, I'll be more than confident in him going into the playoffs.

[Toonage]

No one likes to hear the truth. Especially when its delivered confidently & measured. Pinder knows how to debate, and he isn't wrong that the point of creating these arguments and having these discussions is to entertain and fill airtime. His counterparts seem to have trouble with this, mostly because they have paper thin skin to match their arguments.

[The Boy Wonder]

Originally Posted by GreenLantern2814

And who's got better GSAA? Rittich or Smith?

So the Goals Saved Above Average essentially takes the league average save percentage and then apply it to the amount of shots a particular goalie has faced. Think WAR in baseball but for goalies.

It doesn't account for strength of opponent but it is a much better way of looking at GAA and SV%. Also doesn't account for GSAA/60mins which would even out based on number of games played a little better, and doesn't account for 5v5 or PK. Doesn't account for shot quality either.

This year so far Rittich is at 2.72 (after being as high as 13 earlier this season)
and Smith is at -12.66 (which is a decline from earlier strangely, when he was only -11 something.)


Rittich ranks 26th out of 69 qualified goalies so far this season while smith still sits in 66th.

notably still sitting below smith is Martin Jones

you can't draw too much from this other than essentially what pinder was saying yesterday "Rittich is getting worse, but that doesn't mean smith has improved so drastically to a point where he is even close to league average."

End of the day both goalies need to be better, but Pinder seems to at least look at stats before forming his opinion while Wills is still stuck using stats that really don't tell the whole story, like +/- for skaters, and he is arguing sentimentally whether he realizes it or not.

[Vinny01]

Yeah I am big time backing Pinder for both the arguments he got into with Wills and Nault. No denying there is some bias there as I can’t really stand Wills or Nault so it is easy to side against both of them but they were clearly unprofessional in their attack and could have avoided the personal shots that made it somewhat cringe worthy to listen to

[Robbob]

Originally Posted by djsFlames

Let's see Rittich draw in against teams that aren't Tampa Bay and we'll see then what the gap is.

When his last game was against a team that is pretty much an automatic loss for any club in the league right now on what was a poor 200ft effort by the team it's pretty hard to gauge anything.

But I suspect it's Smith yet again tomorrow so we won't know anything for a bit yet.

The thing that makes me hesitate with Rittich is when the game is talked up like the SJ game, he came out flat. I don't know if he is trying to do more and it causes him to chase the puck rather than letting the game come to him, similar to Smith when he was struggling.

I think maybe he lost a little confidence and swagger and the team is probably trying to ensure there isn't a repeat of the stumble last year.

In regards to the entire argument on the goalie, I just want the team to win. I don't care who is in the net. It is all about right now, not October, November or December. Play whoever is the better goalie right now. If the coaches think that is Smith, then all the power to them. Looking at the record this year I am confident they they know what they are doing.

[Textcritic]

Originally Posted by DeluxeMoustache

...I just don’t see anything Smith has faced that was remotely like Tampa (who has scored 5+ in 22 of their last 41), in terms of offense and in terms of the Flames basically being destroyed by a greatly superior opponent.



Washington had to sit Ovechkin, and still got 4. Florida is not a good team. Arizona looked barely like a NHL team.



I think it’s arguably as simple as this. If Smith got the Tampa game, the stats aren’t close and there is no ‘controversy’

Mike Smith stopped 31 of 32 shots at even strength vs Pittsburgh. How convenient of you to ignore that game. David Rittich stopped 18 of 22 in Tampa.

I don’t know if Smith would have fared much better vs the top team in the NHL, but I am certain that he was better in the Pittsburgh game than Rittich has played in his last two.


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[Textcritic]

Originally Posted by djsFlames

Let's see Rittich draw in against teams that aren't Tampa Bay and we'll see then what the gap is...

You mean like Vancouver?

Rittich was not bad in that game, but he sure wasn’t great. The Flames should have won that one running away, and he was nowhere nearly as good as the guy playing on the other end.


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[Bingo]

Originally Posted by DeluxeMoustache

Yeah, I understand what you are trying to say and like that people think Smith is finding his mojo.

Quality of competition actually matters a whole bunch here. Each goal affects save percentage in a small sample by a lot.

I was at the Arizona game, pretty close to the net and saw lotsa muffins off the blocker. That’s a bad team. And that’s fine, he did what he had to do, but he wasn’t challenged by any means.

Rittich has definitely allowed 11 goals on his last 58 shots, which really is the thing making this any kind of debate in the minds of some. Recency bias and all, stats without context.

He has faced 608 shots total since your chosen date of Nov 25 (cherry picked with Smith’s hot streak included and Rittich’s worst games bookended) and allowed 60, right?

It would be .911 in your date range if you exclude the last 3 games.

I just don’t see anything Smith has faced that was remotely like Tampa (who has scored 5+ in 22 of their last 41), in terms of offense and in terms of the Flames basically being destroyed by a greatly superior opponent.

Washington had to sit Ovechkin, and still got 4. Florida is not a good team. Arizona looked barely like a NHL team.

I think it’s arguably as simple as this. If Smith got the Tampa game, the stats aren’t close and there is no ‘controversy’

Rittich isn't the goalie he was in the first quarter of the season. That's pretty easy to see when you boil down stats.

That doesn't mean that Smith is the answer though.

Really Calgary went from having one of the best starters and the worst backup, to basically having two average backups in the last two plus months.

Is what it is. Hopefully one of them step up and take the job.

[transplant99]

Originally Posted by Bingo

Rittich isn't the goalie he was in the first quarter of the season. That's pretty easy to see when you boil down stats.

That doesn't mean that Smith is the answer though.

Really Calgary went from having one of the best starters and the worst backup, to basically having two average backups in the last two plus months.

Is what it is. Hopefully one of them step up and take the job.

Exactly.....but he might be.

I keep reading how Rittich is undisputedly better and should be the guy going into the playoffs. That simply is not the case.

Unfortunately its a lot more to do with Rittich regressing than it is Smith finding his mojo again, but as you say, here we are.

They have about a month to figure it out right now and a whole whack of games in that time.

I dont care which guy it is, but certainly wish that one of them just figures it out and rolls into the post season with a swagger and confidence, something we are not seeing much of from either at this point.

As for the Wills/Pinder thing from yesterday...anyone want to point out anything Wills said that was incorrect? Pinder moved the goalposts when they were talking about save% as to who was better etc, and thats what he does. He doesnt care about accuracy or integrity towards the subject. He cares about being controversial and having a different take. Nothing wrong with that but the way he goes about it and his condescending/smarmy ways are what get to the guys he works to everyday. He comes across as "im smarter than you" and people really don't like it.

[Textcritic]

Originally Posted by transplant99

...As for the Wills/Pinder thing from yesterday...anyone want to point out anything Wills said that was incorrect? Pinder moved the goalposts when they were talking about save% as to who was better etc, and thats what he does. He doesnt care about accuracy or integrity towards the subject. He cares about being controversial and having a different take. Nothing wrong with that but the way he goes about it and his condescending/smarmy ways are what get to the guys he works to everyday. He comes across as "im smarter than you" and people really don't like it.

There was nothing technically wrong with what Wills said, save for his suggestion that Mike Smith has wrestled back the starting job with a couple decent performances. I thought that was jumping the gun, and attributed it to his overtly favourable view of Smith. But where Wills erred was in taking it personal. He was clearly rattled, and the moment he said “the difference between you and me...” I thought he had lost the debate.




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