[Signing] Flames sign James Neal (5 years, 5.75 AAV)

[GioforPM]

Originally Posted by Hot_Flatus

Funny, you could say similar things about Sam Bennett, who I would suggest he is the worst offender on the team for lack of production based on opportunity given on the second line. Neal is certainly having a bad year and producing like a fourth liner but he still draws a lot of attention on the ice and is a useful player. I would still not bet against him finishing with 12-15 goals and 30-35 points. Not ideal, but given he's a third liner right now, there's not much more you can expect out of him.

This is very true. He doesn't seem to get open much and that's in part due to the fact he's seen as the most dangerous guy on his line, when he's playing with Jankowski and some other winger. And he's not exactly elusive to make up for it. The point about Haula and Perron was right - they hold the puck long enough to draw a defender or two to them. Jankowski looks to pass to Neal from the mopment he crosses the blue line. He needs to drive and then dish.

[GreenLantern2814]

Originally Posted by GioforPM

Well, I don;t see it as covering his shortcomings as opposed to meshing well with his strengths (he potted goals).

There are players who like having the puck on this team though. However, neither Jankowski or Ryan are in that group. I often think Jankowski passes too soon. And Ryan isn't a great passer. The trouble is, all the puck hogs are on other, more set, lines.

The best centre solution for Neal, aside from a trade, is Lindholm and that has costs which might outweigh the benefits.

Put Neal with Backlund and Tkachuk and leave him there.

Brad Treliving couldn't have possibly signed James Neal expecting him to be able to create on his own. That's not his game and it's never been his game. He finds open space and has a deadly shot.

For all the talk of Neal's struggles, he still only has three fewer points than Bennett, who at times has appeared to be saving his career.

Let Backlund and Tkachuk get him the biscuit. He shouldn't have any trouble keeping up with those two, and even Brouwer was a 0.5 PPG player during the 9 or 10 contests he got with them last year.

[Classic_Sniper]

Originally Posted by Zulu29

Completely different positions and roles of responsibility, but since you brought it up I’ll bite. How many times has James Neal directly contributed to a loss?

Well obviously no forward in this league could cost a team games like a goaltender could. But relatively speaking, James Neal is easily the worst value per dollar player on this team and it’s not close. He has scored exactly 1 meaningful goal through 34 games which also happens to be the last goal he scored 48 days ago. Then you look at all the bad penalties, the poor defensive play and the missed opportunities that his minutes could’ve went towards, then yes, he definitely hurts this team especially because he’s signed for another 5 years.

Originally Posted by Zulu29

Which is why it would make sense for the team to try and get him going rather than trade him for junk or another team. I’m not happy with his play, but I’d rather give him the season to figure it out that make a knee jerk reaction right now.

The way Neal currently is playing is junk. Expensive junk. Honestly, Stockton Heat call up Alan Quine is tied him in goals while playing only 9 minutes a game. I just don’t see what more this team can do to get him going. They’ve played him with every ppg player on the team, every center, every line and every situation. Patience was preached 2 months ago and nothing has changed. People can keep hoping and praying, but like I said, if losses start to mount here and he continues at this current play, this thread will get ugly.

[Classic_Sniper]

Originally Posted by GioforPM

This is very true. He doesn't seem to get open much and that's in part due to the fact he's seen as the most dangerous guy on his line, when he's playing with Jankowski and some other winger. And he's not exactly elusive to make up for it. The point about Haula and Perron was right - they hold the puck long enough to draw a defender or two to them. Jankowski looks to pass to Neal from the mopment he crosses the blue line. He needs to drive and then dish.

They're playing Neal man to man, nothing special. He's not particular quick, so getting open wide open is a problem right now. If Neal is getting paid nearly $6M and has no ability to create his own shot, that's a fail right there because we'd have to spend an equal amount of money for a playmaker who can break down defenses, draw defenders and then dish to an open Neal.

The Flames don't have the cap space to entertain this option, nor do the Flames have a center capable of doing this for Neal. Asking Jankowski to do what Johnny Gaudreau essentially does isn't even fair. If Jankowski had this ability, he wouldn't cost you $1.75m, more like double or triple that.

[Zulu29]

Originally Posted by Classic_Sniper

They're playing Neal man to man, nothing special. He's not particular quick, so getting open wide open is a problem right now. If Neal is getting paid nearly $6M and has no ability to create his own shot, that's a fail right there because we'd have to spend an equal amount of money for a playmaker who can break down defenses, draw defenders and then dish to an open Neal.

The Flames don't have the cap space to entertain this option, nor do the Flames have a center capable of doing this for Neal. Asking Jankowski to do what Johnny Gaudreau essentially does isn't even fair. If Jankowski had this ability, he wouldn't cost you $1.75m, more like double or triple that.

I’m not disputing that he’s playing god awful, all I’m saying is that he’s a big cap hit and he’s gonna be damn near impossible to move other than taking an equally bad contract. So it’s the devil you know vs the devil you don’t. At least he seems to be positive and a leader.

[CanadaMatt]

Originally Posted by 442scotty

Neal not playing tonight... upper body injury which in his case maybe it’s an injury to an area of the brain governing intensity and loss of hockey IQ

This has “healthy scratch” written all over it

[Textcritic]

Originally Posted by CanadaMatt

This has “healthy scratch” written all over it

Except that would be a pretty flagrant violation of League rules. Teams can't just publicize whatever the hell they want regarding a player's roster status.

[FBI]

Semi-healthy scratch

[Classic_Sniper]

Originally Posted by Zulu29

I’m not disputing that he’s playing god awful, all I’m saying is that he’s a big cap hit and he’s gonna be damn near impossible to move other than taking an equally bad contract. So it’s the devil you know vs the devil you don’t. At least he seems to be positive and a leader.

Fair enough. But I do remember people saying the same thing about Troy Brouwer and he was ran straight out of town. Brouwer's leadership skills, intangibles and playoff pedigree all ended up being completely useless here.

Personally, I've seen enough of James Neal here, it's not a good fit. I expect the next 48 games to look exactly like the last 34 games we've seen unless something drastically changes like a trade or Mark Jankowski becomes the next Jumbo Joe Thornton.

[Enoch Root]

Originally Posted by Classic_Sniper

Fair enough. But I do remember people saying the same thing about Troy Brouwer and he was ran straight out of town. Brouwer's leadership skills, intangibles and playoff pedigree all ended up being completely useless here.

Personally, I've seen enough of James Neal here, it's not a good fit. I expect the next 48 games to look exactly like the last 34 games we've seen unless something drastically changes like a trade or Mark Jankowski becomes the next Jumbo Joe Thornton.

The same things were said about Hamonic last year. The team can afford to be patient.

[Itse]

Originally Posted by Enoch Root

The same things were said about Hamonic last year. The team can afford to be patient.

I don't remember this. People (myself included) didn't like what we gave up for him in a trade, but he was never a bad contract in isolation.

[Enoch Root]

Originally Posted by Itse

I don't remember this. People (myself included) didn't like what we gave up for him in a trade, but he was never a bad contract in isolation.

Lots of people talked about him not fitting in, being putrid defensively, being over-rated based on one good year on the Island, can't skate, no offense, can't pass, etc.

As another example, go back and review fan reactions to Hamilton in his first 20 games. Brutal stuff.

[GreenLantern2814]

Originally Posted by Classic_Sniper

Fair enough. But I do remember people saying the same thing about Troy Brouwer and he was ran straight out of town. Brouwer's leadership skills, intangibles and playoff pedigree all ended up being completely useless here.

Personally, I've seen enough of James Neal here, it's not a good fit. I expect the next 48 games to look exactly like the last 34 games we've seen unless something drastically changes like a trade or Mark Jankowski becomes the next Jumbo Joe Thornton.

Neal is shooting 4.0% on 75 shots. He has three goals. For his career, Neal shoots 11.8% - if he shoots even 10% for the year, he has eight goals. A whopping 5 more than now.

Neal has taken 200+ shots every year since 2013-14, and he's on pace for a little less than that this year, around 180. If he were to actually score 20 this year, it would be because he shot 11.6% on those 180 shots.

Put him with Backlund and Tkachuk, and they'll figure it out.

[Classic_Sniper]

Originally Posted by Enoch Root

The same things were said about Hamonic last year. The team can afford to be patient.

I don't think it was necessarily Hamonic who was the issue last season. Brodie definitely dragged that pairing down with his play. Hanifin has done a considerably better job this season as Hamonic's partner which in turn has helped Hamonic's game.

It's not like I think Neal has lost his game. He has 10 straight 20 goal seasons. I've just seen enough of him on this particular team. I keep saying it's just not a good fit. The styles clash. We don't have the right players that can help make Neal successful and it would be too costly and not worth it to find those guys for him.

There's a reason Elias Lindholm who's never even sniffed 20 goals before has been leaps and bounds better than Neal this season. He plays a certain style that happens to suit this team whereas I don't think Neal does and numbers certainly speak for themselves. Lindholm is on pace for 41 goals while Neal is on pace for 7. That's worlds apart.

[Classic_Sniper]

Originally Posted by GreenLantern2814

Neal is shooting 4.0% on 75 shots. He has three goals. For his career, Neal shoots 11.8% - if he shoots even 10% for the year, he has eight goals. A whopping 5 more than now.

Neal has taken 200+ shots every year since 2013-14, and he's on pace for a little less than that this year, around 180. If he were to actually score 20 this year, it would be because he shot 11.6% on those 180 shots.

Put him with Backlund and Tkachuk, and they'll figure it out.

Honestly ask yourself, how many of those 75 shots have truly been dangerous? How many posts and crossbars has he hit or how many goaltenders have robbed him of sure fire goals? It hasn't been a lot. I'd argue that the muffin he scored in the blowout loss to Murray shouldn't have even went in. The 1st one vs St. Louis was also a pretty fortunate one. If we're going to do a deep dive, then we might has well look at it from both ways.

I honestly wasn't impressed on him We've seen him with Backlund and Tkachuk and there hasn't been much there. That's why Neal keeps getting moved around, because there's no traction, no progression. To just say play him with these guys and maybe one day they'll figure it out is just not good coaching. Winning is ultimately more important than any one player. If he's struggling and losses start to mount, Neal's minutes will dial back. The team and fanbase have the luxury of patience right now, but Troy Brouwer didn't have that luxury and he was crushed in this place. Who's to say Neal won't get that same treatment. The scenario is very similar, the only difference is the situation.

[CanadaMatt]

Originally Posted by Textcritic

Except that would be a pretty flagrant violation of League rules. Teams can't just publicize whatever the hell they want regarding a player's roster status.

That’s a little naive on you part, and by a ‘little’, I really mean a ‘lot’

[Strange Brew]

Originally Posted by Textcritic

Except that would be a pretty flagrant violation of League rules. Teams can't just publicize whatever the hell they want regarding a player's roster status.

Every player in the league is playing with an injury. A flagrant violation is overstating things rather dramatically IMO.

[troutman]

Brouwer just scored his 7th.

[Aarongavey]

Originally Posted by GreenLantern2814

Neal is shooting 4.0% on 75 shots. He has three goals. For his career, Neal shoots 11.8% - if he shoots even 10% for the year, he has eight goals. A whopping 5 more than now.

Neal has taken 200+ shots every year since 2013-14, and he's on pace for a little less than that this year, around 180. If he were to actually score 20 this year, it would be because he shot 11.6% on those 180 shots.

Put him with Backlund and Tkachuk, and they'll figure it out.

Neal's regression is outside the normal regression but not necessarily unexpected. I ran the numbers for 20 NHL players who averaged over 20 goals per 82 games from the age of 21-30 (Brown, Pavelski, Thornton, Carter, Nash, Callahan, Pominville, Marleau, Backes, Bergeron, Plekanec, Vanek, Parise, Staal, Spezza, Steen, Kesler, Getzlaf, Eriksson, Ovechkin)

Of that list of 20 players, only two averaged more goals per 82 games after turning 31 than they did before (Pavelski and Bergeron). The other 18 were worse in terms of goals per 82 games.

Of that list only two players averaged more shots per game after 31 than before (Bergeron and Marleau)

Of that list only four had a higher shooting percentage after turning 31 than before (Pavelski, Staal, Steen and Ovechkin)

On average those players scored 22.5% fewer goals per 82 games played after 31 than they did before they turned 31.

On average those players had 14.4% fewer shots per game after 31 than before 31. And on average those players had a 11.8% lower shooting percentage after 31 than before 31.

Neal averaged 254 shots per 82 games before 31 with a 12.1% shooting percentage.

If Neal was the average player after the age of 31, based on his pre-31 numbers he would take approximately 217 shots this year, he would score on approximately 10.6% of them for 23 goals (all averaged over 82 games)

Unfortunately for us, Neal's current numbers are off the charts, shooting percentage down 67%, shots on goal down 28.7% and goals down 77.4%. Even I think those numbers are unsustainable.

My worry is that his numbers are closer to the bottom 5 players on that list, who had a 33.4% drop in their shooting percentage and a 30.3% drop in their number of shots. If that is the James Neal we have his numbers over 82 games would be

Shots - 177
Shooting Percentage - 8%
Goals - 15

That is the player over 82 games that I suspect we have. But comparing what he did before 31 and assuming he will continue it is unlikely based on what other similar players have accomplished in their 30's in the NHL. The good news is that he will be better, the bad news is that he is likely never going to be a consistent 20 goal man again (both because of regression and his inability to stay healthy historically).

But any NHL GM would pay a forward in his 30's with an expectation that they will score less goals, take less shots and have a lower shooting percentage than they did in their 20's. If they didn't they were not looking at the historical averages. For most forwards over the age of 31 it is the perfect storm of a lower shooting percentage and much fewer shots on goal which leads to a significant drop in the number of goals they score.

[GreenLantern2814]

^First of all, great work. I agree that Neal is probably not likely to return to his pre-30 averages, but I'm optimistic for a middle ground.

At this point, if Neal is a 15/15 guy who has decent playoff performances for the rest of this contract, I can live with it. All he needs to be is a top-9 NHL forward, and everything I've watched indicates he's still that.

To watch Troy Brouwer was to question 'why is this man in the NHL?'

I can see what Neal brings. I can see that it's not clicking yet, but I don't doubt that he belongs in the league. Five years is a long time. All you can do is wait for him to work out of it.

I would actually bet Neal scores 20 next year, if only next year. The guy has been a reliable producer on four different teams; he can't possibly shoot 4% forever. His shot is too good.