Disney and the future of streaming

[CliffFletcher]

Provocative article in the Atlantic this week about Disney and the future of streaming.

Disneyflix Is Coming. And Netflix Should Be Scared.

Disney's streaming service will be a real threat to Netflix. But it will also be a real threat to Disney's TV and movie arms. Will Disney take a huge leap, and a huge risk, by opening major movies on its streaming service?

What if Disney bypassed the middlemen and put a highly anticipated film like Black Panther on its streaming service the same day it opened in theaters—or made the film exclusive to subscribers? In the short term, sacrificing all those onetime ticket buyers might seem financially ruinous. But the lifetime value of subscriptions—which renew automatically until actively canceled—quickly becomes profound. If the film’s debut encouraged just over 4 million people to sign up for an annual subscription to a $10-a-month Disneyflix product—about the same number of subscribers that Netflix added the quarter it debuted its original series House of Cards—Disney would earn a net revenue of nearly $500 million in just the first year. Black Panther was a massive hit as a theatrical release; it could have been even bigger had it been used to transform onetime moviegoers into multiyear Disneyflix subscribers.

Such a move would be another nail in the coffin of the theatrical movie business. But maybe Disney is willing to make that sacrifice to make a big leap in digital subscriptions, which are the future of digital entertainment.

[KTrain]

It's definitely interesting. With the properties they own, I'll probably subscribe. I love the Netflix originals but Disney originals for the streaming service make it a no-brainer. Jon Favreau on Star Wars?!

It'll also be interesting to see how they phase in their library. They could easily add everything all at once but then they'd have less to add later. Do they bring things in for a bit and then remove them like Netflix? They don't have to worry about the licensing like Netflix does so they wouldn't really have an excuse for removing content once it's on there.

I enjoy going to the movies but I would be fine with new releases coming directly to streaming.

It wouldn't surprise to me to have them build in an extra charge for day-of releases for new movies.

[Finger Cookin]

I wonder if there's much benefit to Disney trying its own thing from scratch or just tweaking Hulu now that it's about to be the majority owner of that service.

[#-3]

Originally Posted by KTrain

It's definitely interesting. With the properties they own, I'll probably subscribe. I love the Netflix originals but Disney originals for the streaming service make it a no-brainer. Jon Favreau on Star Wars?!

It'll also be interesting to see how they phase in their library. They could easily add everything all at once but then they'd have less to add later. Do they bring things in for a bit and then remove them like Netflix? They don't have to worry about the licensing like Netflix does so they wouldn't really have an excuse for removing content once it's on there.

I enjoy going to the movies but I would be fine with new releases coming directly to streaming.

It wouldn't surprise to me to have them build in an extra charge for day-of releases for new movies.

As the inventors of the Disney vault game, you will certainly see title go up and down. They were doing it on home video, long before Netflix was doing it on streaming.

[Northendzone]

It will be interesting to see where movie theatres are in 5 yrs. personally, I love going to the Thayer - big screen, big sound - but the big spend.

I sometimes find streaming frustrating cause last night for example we were going to o watch something, and our apple box was buffering and then did not want to work.

[kermitology]

Originally Posted by Northendzone

It will be interesting to see where movie theatres are in 5 yrs. personally, I love going to the Thayer - big screen, big sound - but the big spend.

I sometimes find streaming frustrating cause last night for example we were going to o watch something, and our apple box was buffering and then did not want to work.

This is a frustration I have with Apple. They believe that media should be enjoyed in full quality and don’t do adaptive bitrate streaming. Most of the time I won’t notice the quality dip, just make the playback seamless.

[CliffFletcher]

Originally Posted by Northendzone

It will be interesting to see where movie theatres are in 5 yrs. personally, I love going to the Thayer - big screen, big sound - but the big spend.

My guess is it's going to get moreso - better experience (seats, technology), higher cost. The article used the comparison with sports - most people will watch it at home, but some will want to pay extra for the atmosphere and social experience of the live event.

[Erick Estrada]

People still like to go to the theatre as dinner and a movie has been a staple date in our culture forever. Also even with a big TV and home theatre system you can't replicate the movie theatre experience. That said I don't think theatres have done themselves any favours by gouging customers for food and beverage as it's become quite expensive to take the family out to see a movie. I doubt movie theatres will ever go away and I think streaming and theatres can co-exist. There are so many substandard movies released annually that straight to home releases like Cloverfield Paradox is a positive trend seeing theatres would be largely empty after the first week of release for such a movie anyway. Maybe the trend will be theatres with less screens but bigger and better experiences for the big budget and theatre worthy films?

[CliffFletcher]

Originally Posted by Erick Estrada

People still like to go to the theatre as dinner and a movie has been a staple date in our culture forever.

It looks like that's changing, though, especially for younger people. From the article:

Among the key demographic of 18-to-24-year-olds, North American movie-theater attendance has declined 17 percent since 2012.

The rise of the foreign market has masked the fact that fewer and fewer North Americans go to the movies.

Originally Posted by Erick Estrada

Also even with a big TV and home theatre system you can't replicate the movie theatre experience.

And watching sports on TV can't replicate the live experience. And yet far more people watch sports on TV than go to live games.

Originally Posted by Erick Estrada

That said I don't think theatres have done themselves any favours by gouging customers for food and beverage as it's become quite expensive to take the family out to see a movie.

Don't expect that to change. In fact, it's looking like the industry is moving to a model of people going to fewer movies, but spending more. So going to a movie will be more like going to a music concert or a live sporting event - a big event that you pay a lot for, instead of a routine family experience.

[Wastedyouth]

I don't know about you guys, but I get pretty annoyed almost every time I go to the theatre. People seem to be even more obnoxious now than ever. I've had to loudly tell people to STFU almost everytime I go.

I for one welcome the prospective change of not needing to go to the theatre to see big movies.

[SuperMatt18]

Originally Posted by Wastedyouth

I don't know about you guys, but I get pretty annoyed almost every time I go to the theatre. People seem to be even more obnoxious now than ever. I've had to loudly tell people to STFU almost everytime I go.

I for one welcome the prospective change of not needing to go to the theatre to see big movies.

Honestly I've never had this problem.

I always hear about it but whenever I'm in a theatre people are always are quiet and attentive. Maybe you get the odd whisper but never anything that requires somebody telling somebody else to be quiet.

[Itse]

Originally Posted by CliffFletcher

Provocative article in the Atlantic this week about Disney and the future of streaming.

Disneyflix Is Coming. And Netflix Should Be Scared.

Disney's streaming service will be a real threat to Netflix. But it will also be a real threat to Disney's TV and movie arms. Will Disney take a huge leap, and a huge risk, by opening major movies on its streaming service?

Such a move would be another nail in the coffin of the theatrical movie business. But maybe Disney is willing to make that sacrifice to make a big leap in digital subscriptions, which are the future of digital entertainment.

I don't see that happening. Why have just one lucrative business when you can have two? It would be such a risky business strategy.

Let's also remember that a major reason why Disney is the king of everything in movies is because they can suck out such a big portion of the attention and money in the theater business. If they start giving up those prime release dates and theater spots in favor of a streaming service, other studios will be extremely grateful for the new opportunities.

[GordonBlue]

wonder if steaming will get so fragmented with specific genres of programming it will cost as much to have all these subscriptions as it many people now pay for cable.

[KTrain]

That's already happening in my opinion. Especially if you want any "day of release" content. All the networks have their own streaming service at this point I think. If you want the various sports packages, you're definitely going over your regular cable package.

[CliffFletcher]

Originally Posted by GordonBlue

wonder if steaming will get so fragmented with specific genres of programming it will cost as much to have all these subscriptions as it many people now pay for cable.

Almost certainly. The heyday of spending $8-12 a month for an enormous amount of content from a wide variety of providers is drawing to a close. That's why Netflix is creating its own content at an astonishing rate - they see the writing on the wall and recognize that in a few years almost nobody else will sell their content to Netflix, so Netflix will need to have a library of enough of their own content to make a subscription worthwhile.