Russia invades Ukraine

[undercoverbrother]

Originally Posted by burn_this_city

Good representation of how the Russians advance at a tremendous cost.

https://twitter.com/user/status/1781332809061142915

Good

Die ####ers

[Huntingwhale]

Originally Posted by burn_this_city

https://twitter.com/user/status/1781176770739228813

Sweet god damn justice on this one, considering this is supposedly the bomber responsible for decimating the Dnipro train station a few hours ago. Russian telegram says the pilot surivived, but since they lie with every word, hopefully that sack of #### war criminal was eliminated.

In a first for Ukraine during the invasion, Kyiv's air force commander and military spy agency said they had shot down a Russian Tu-22M3 strategic bomber that had fired missiles at Ukraine during the overnight attack.
The warplane, they said, had been flying in Russian airspace 300 km from the Ukrainian border.
An intelligence source told Reuters that Kyiv had used a modified S-200 air defence missile for the attack, but did not say where it had been fired from. The S-200 is a Soviet-era long-range surface-to-air missile system.

Watched some pretty destressing videos of this attack. I was married in Dnipro 3 years ago and remember this plaza quite well. A cool circualr tram rail system in the middle, cafes and restaurants on the side, the train station as the backdrop. Dnipro is such a cool city and I was pleasantly surprised how many people spoke English there. Much more than Kharkiv.

I know some people whine when we celebrate russian deaths, but considering the destruction and straight up murder that pilot put forth on civilians, #### that guy and rot it hell.

[Cheese]

BREAKING: Ukraine launched a major drone swarm against Russia this morning, striking 2 power substations in the Kaluga and Bryansk regions, as well as an oil refinery near Smolensk.

https://twitter.com/user/status/1781587263417139252

https://twitter.com/user/status/1781637569072996797


Zelensky: "Believe me, Putin is very afraid of us. I am sure of that. Because he is an insecure person. Because confident people, with a large army, a large state, with capabilities such as nuclear weapons do not threaten the world

https://twitter.com/user/status/1781683893571047892


I guarantee you that right now, at this very moment, there are very many desperate calls, emails, and meeting requests arriving from russia to its plants in Congress and elsewhere in the system Trying to do whatever they can to delay or derail the aid package to

https://twitter.com/user/status/1781591677209059724


What is said to be a temporary free flat given by the Russian council to an "SMO veteran". Previous owners, the pigeons, had to be kicked out with force.

https://twitter.com/user/status/1781627123054018775


Russian servicemen complaining about the quality of old and rusted 152 mm shells they receive.

https://twitter.com/user/status/1781588438304641209

https://twitter.com/user/status/1781660733052207461

[karl262]

Originally Posted by Huntingwhale

Sweet god damn justice on this one, considering this is supposedly the bomber responsible for decimating the Dnipro train station a few hours ago. Russian telegram says the pilot surivived, but since they lie with every word, hopefully that sack of #### war criminal was eliminated.



Watched some pretty destressing videos of this attack. I was married in Dnipro 3 years ago and remember this plaza quite well. A cool circualr tram rail system in the middle, cafes and restaurants on the side, the train station as the backdrop. Dnipro is such a cool city and I was pleasantly surprised how many people spoke English there. Much more than Kharkiv.

I know some people whine when we celebrate russian deaths, but considering the destruction and straight up murder that pilot put forth on civilians, #### that guy and rot it hell.

The Backfire being eliminated is an interesting one. Shot down 300 km's inside Russian territory is basically the max range of an S200 sitting right at the border, so it would be a long missile flight with radar warnings going bonkers in the cockpit. So you'd think the pilots would get moving as fast as possible away from the threat? But the way it's falling from the sky it doesn't seem like a plane moving as fast as possible was hit? More like a plane cruising along without a care in the world being taken completely by surprise to me. But I have no idea.

Maybe Ukraine has AA assets on Russian territory? Russia is so f***ed.

[burn_this_city]

After nearly 500 days since the last aid bill, the US house just passed $60B more of aid to Ukraine. Makes you wonder if Avdiivka and other places could have been held if this wasn't blocked by Republicans for the last 6 months.

https://twitter.com/user/status/1781743652987138465

[Reggie28]

$61 Billion Ukraine aid bill just passed.

$23B to replenish U.S weaponry
$13.8B to buy advanced weapons systems
$9B in economic assistance

Hopefully it’s enough to turn the tide.

[Francis's Hairpiece]

Oh. It's on now, you ####ing Orcs.

[Fuzz]

Wow, that's worse than I thought. Putin has 112 Republicans blackmailed? Was he running his own Epstein island for them?

[Cheese]

Slava Ukraini!! I hope it's enough to push the bastards back to their own border and keep them there!

[Snuffleupagus]

Originally Posted by Fuzz

Wow, that's worse than I thought. Putin has 112 Republicans blackmailed? Was he running his own Epstein island for them?

No just one, Trump has the other 112

[curves2000]

I guess we will see what the US and the west ends up providing to Ukraine as part of this package and the EU package as well. I remain hopeful Ukraine get's the equipment they need.

If it's kinda the same thing, equipment that is being requested but denied, then I don't know if it will make a difference.

Holding out and defending the line is not the same thing as having the equipment to inflict losses and regain enough ground that it change things. Ukraine needs the later and they need it in a big way. Everything else is smokescreen

[Itse]

Just as a reminder: a lot of countries are doing quite bit of bilateral support too. Especially the Nordic and Baltic countries, but also for example Germany. Financial aid is also super important. In part because that financial aid helps Ukrainians own arms manufacturing and arms purchases, and just generally helps keep everything functioning.

The West aren't a monolith, nor is EU.

[karl262]

Originally Posted by curves2000

I guess we will see what the US and the west ends up providing to Ukraine as part of this package and the EU package as well. I remain hopeful Ukraine get's the equipment they need.

If it's kinda the same thing, equipment that is being requested but denied, then I don't know if it will make a difference.

Holding out and defending the line is not the same thing as having the equipment to inflict losses and regain enough ground that it change things. Ukraine needs the later and they need it in a big way. Everything else is smokescreen

When being zergrushed you never leave your bunkers or un-seige your tanks. Let them take horrific losses with these meat wave attacks until they run out of units. Let them keep losing airplanes, ships and logistics hubs until they're no longer an effective fighting force. Keep hitting refineries and export terminals, any soft target in their energy infrastructure is fair game. Destroy the Kerch bridge with a swarm of attack dolphins! Get creative!

The aid package was always going to come. I expect Boeing kit will be heavily represented.

[Street Pharmacist]

Some caution added to the news yesterday

https://twitter.com/user/status/1781923869529633115

[Cheese]

True to above, it doesnt seem to mention that part of the bill allows for the grabbing of Russian monies held up by sanctions. That, the USA money and the 100B being put together by Europe should help immensely.

[Cheese]

In addition to direct assistance, the Russians are very concerned about the сonfiscation of frozen assets. It's nearly the most important topic for discussion.

https://twitter.com/user/status/1781949630487396696


#Ukrainian strike on #Russian Navy base at Sevastopol in Crimea appears to have damaged, possibly seriously (TBC), the submarine support ship Kommuna

https://twitter.com/user/status/1781974115605504165


Military aid, including long-range missiles, will be sent to Ukraine by the end of next week

https://twitter.com/user/status/1782075229231087938


Someone asked me: “how long before Ukraine gets the equipment?

https://twitter.com/user/status/1782069213097554143

https://twitter.com/user/status/1781793762282189140

[Itse]

Originally Posted by Street Pharmacist

Some caution added to the news yesterday

https://twitter.com/user/status/1781923869529633115

Eh, who cares, this means nothing. The US political establishment has no memory, and no one knows what they’ll think next year.

[curves2000]

Originally Posted by Itse

Eh, who cares, this means nothing. The US political establishment has no memory, and no one knows what they’ll think next year.

I take it to mean that we are at a fork in the road from a large western support perspective. They will see what this package may be able to achieve on the battlefield but perhaps after this, it will be more of a European/Ukraine responsibility on the large things. I don't agree with that stance in a lot of ways but in a lot of ways, when Ukraine mentioned they need A, B, C , D and more in these quantities, and they get a lot less of everything, it makes you wonder. They wanted F16 and 3000 tanks, they got 300, a lot of which was blown up quickly and are awaiting a few f16's by the summer, maybe.

If it looks like Biden will lose the next election, it may be time then to help Ukraine with getting the best deal possible as opposed to what Trump may offer.

The days of the US providing tens of billions of dollars and continuing their level of involvement to these degree may be coming to an end in relatively quick fashion. That is why I am hoping that the US and the west send the required equipment to make enough of a dent to actual change things in Ukraine's favor

[Itse]

Originally Posted by curves2000

I take it to mean that we are at a fork in the road from a large western support perspective. They will see what this package may be able to achieve on the battlefield but perhaps after this, it will be more of a European/Ukraine responsibility on the large things. I don't agree with that stance in a lot of ways but in a lot of ways, when Ukraine mentioned they need A, B, C , D and more in these quantities, and they get a lot less of everything, it makes you wonder. They wanted F16 and 3000 tanks, they got 300, a lot of which was blown up quickly and are awaiting a few f16's by the summer, maybe.

If it looks like Biden will lose the next election, it may be time then to help Ukraine with getting the best deal possible as opposed to what Trump may offer.

The days of the US providing tens of billions of dollars and continuing their level of involvement to these degree may be coming to an end in relatively quick fashion. That is why I am hoping that the US and the west send the required equipment to make enough of a dent to actual change things in Ukraine's favor

Who knows.

For comparison, the US budget cost of Afghanistan was at it's lowest at the 3rd-6th year period, about 15-20 billion per year, and at it's highest around the 10th-13th year period, at around 100 billion per year. Likewise in Iraq the US spending went up and down during that whole operation.

Point being, just because the interest in and willingness to spend on wars in far away places is down in the US right now, that doesn't mean the pendulum can't or won't swing another way just as easily. In fact it's almost guaranteed to do so.

I also think it's to some extent just political strategy to not try to push through these huge packages all at once. If you cut future packages into smaller pieces and generally make less noise about them, those pieces become less attractive targets for partisan grandstanding, and thus possible easier to push through.

At the end of the day, the war in Ukraine has been an absolute rainmaker for the US arms industry, and an opportunity for many militaries around the world to modernize their own equipment by eagerly sending the old equipment to Ukraine. That dynamic isn't about to change soon. Everywhere in the world, new weapons factories and production lines are being built, and once they are up and running they will want to keep churning. Since the war in Ukraine is good for the military-industrial complex, they will keep supporting it.

The West is also really still just getting into this fight. The packages promised earlier are still in the process of being delivered, and investments are starting to turn into producrs. Rheinmetal for example is currently building three new weapons factories (of unspecified type) in Ukraine, while both in Europe and in the US new production lines for artillery ammunition are still under construction. Western governments aren't going to let investments like that go to waste after they come online.

You are right that there doesn't seem to be a huge appetite for sending certain things to Ukraine, especially fighter jets and tanks, but really in a large scale attritional war like this, they aren't necessarily the most important weapons categories, especially if the air space remains contested. (Maybe if Ukraine would get them in massive numbers, but that was never going to happen.)

As things are right now, quantity mostly trumps quality at the Ukrainian frontlines. Bullets, artillery shells, drones, those are being spent in six figure numbers every month, and the most important hi-tech aid type is probably air defense.

Air defense is really the one category where US support is most crucial, as Europe doesn't really have much local air defense production. (An issue I think many European militaries are currently thinking about.) That's the most important thing in this package that already passed, and this package should last for a while.

The way I see it, it was already clear a year ago that this war isn't likely to be decided on the battlefield. Russia is however currently trying VERY hard to do just that, spending huge amounts of men and equipment to push the frontline on a level which is barely noticeable on the map.

I believe this is because Putin knows the Russian economy is on the clock, and will eventually suffer a collapse of some kind. Ukraine also knows this, which is why they've switched to targeting the Russian economy with attacks on Russian refineries. (They've managed to shut down an estimated 10-20% of Russian refinery capacity, which is definitely going to be felt in Russia, one way or another.)

So, I think the current level of support, especially after this package, is enough for Ukraine to stand their ground and keep grinding away. They will help immensely in stopping the next Russian offenses.

That already approved weapons aid also just saves Ukrainian lives, and helps make Russians pay even more for every inch of Ukrainian soil.

...and if it at any point it starts to look like the Russian economy can't keep up with the war, the appetite for sending new weapon types from the West might also go back up again.

I guess this was all a very longwinded way to say: the attention span and memory of US politicians are shorter than the events of this war. Sure, there's reason to worry about the future, as you said. However, by the time the next rounds of aid are being decided, the situation at the front will once again be different, and things said now will already be forgotten by then.

Meanwhile, the western support actually delivered is going to go up in the near future, as decisions already made a while back are just starting to turn into reality.

The West is just so superior to Russia economically, that even lukewarm support for Ukraine is enough to eventually crush Russia.

[Firebot]

It's been reported that Johnson's turnaround had a lot to do with a CIA call in how dire things are for Ukraine and the repercussions extreme should the US not act now.

https://edition.cnn.com/2024/04/21/p...wan/index.html

And more recently, Johnson received a key intelligence briefing from CIA Director Bill Burns, who painted a picture of the dire situation on the battlefield in Ukraine and the global consequences of inaction, according to multiple sources with knowledge of the situation. The briefing left a lasting impression, and Johnson became increasingly convinced the fate of Western democracy was on his shoulders, sources close to him said.

Another factor that sources say weighed heavily on his decision-making: Johnson’s oldest son was recently accepted into the Naval Academy.

“To put it bluntly, I would rather send bullets to Ukraine than American boys. My son is going to begin in the Naval Academy this fall. This is a live-fire exercise for me as it is so many American families,” Johnson told reporters. “This is not a game, this is not a joke.”

Ultimately, it's clear as day that Putin's goals do not stop at Ukraine even this far into the war, he will not be appeased with the territory he has gained so far and would likely get in an inevitable confrontation with NATO. Whether the west wants it or not, this is a global conflict that has everlasting repercussions that will escalate no matter what, the only difference is right now Ukraine is a buffer, which it may not be in the future. It's time to take it seriously. It's extremely cheap to aid Ukraine militarily compared to what a future without aiding Ukraine may look like.