Official (Alberta) Oil Discussion Thread - Page 318 - Calgarypuck Forums - The Unofficial Calgary Flames Fan Community

Tron_fdc · 10-14-2021, 10:29 AM

Yep. Oil is soaring, fuel prices in the US are surging and it's comical what Biden is doing.

https://oilprice.com/Energy/Energy-G...ne-Prices.html

If only they had a way to bring on another 600 000bpd......

burn_this_city · 10-14-2021, 10:47 AM

KXL wasn't going to be in service until at least 23/24. Biden can't really do much, US producers are beholden to shareholder returns and OPEC is producing below their quotas. People blaming the President for a 100mbdp oil market don't really understand the market.

Azure · 10-14-2021, 10:58 AM

US is saying to expect to pay 57% more for heating this year due to rise in energy prices.

But inflation is NOT real. Goodness.

I agree on the President thing. You have numerous states that have shuttered nuclear (looking at you California). Numerous states that have not properly made sure gas is a viable and working option. Numerous states where hopes and dreams were expected to provide energy. I'm the biggest proponent of renewables, but you gotta make sure things are looked after before you start kicking fossil fuels to the curb.

Can't blame POTUS or the feds if the states are making those mistakes.

Table 5 · 10-14-2021, 11:16 AM

I don't think you can solely blame Biden, as this situation took years to lead up to, with people many levels involved. There has been lack of long-term foresight amongst many.

However, I do think you can blame his administration for how they have handled things so far...ie the general deflection of the issue, and then begging OPEC to solve the problem. After the decade+ long underinvestment and vilification of the industry, this is not something that can be solved quickly, but at least involve your damn countrymen (and neighbours!) when looking to solve the issue.

Azure · 10-14-2021, 03:06 PM

Yeah, the Biden Admin is looking rather pathetic right now in their efforts, which of course wasn't that hard to see happening with the stupidity of their campaign.

But, at the end of the day the feds are forcing California to shut down their nuclear & fossil fuel energy plants.

All the states love to claim 'state power', but many of them have been more incompetent about the energy issue than the federal government.

CliffFletcher · 10-14-2021, 03:59 PM

From today’s Economist:

The first big energy shock of the green era

Quote:

The panic is a reminder that modern life needs abundant energy: without it, bills become unaffordable, homes freeze and businesses stall. The panic has also exposed deeper problems as the world shifts to a cleaner energy system, including inadequate investment in renewables and some transition fossil fuels, rising geopolitical risks and flimsy safety buffers in power markets. Without rapid reforms there will be more energy crises and, perhaps, a popular revolt against climate policies...

Table 5 · 10-14-2021, 04:27 PM

Funny coming from the Economist, when this was their cover not even a year ago.

Spoiler!

Not that I'm a big coal guy or anything, but these magazines are always great at calling tops and bottoms.

Azure · 10-14-2021, 04:32 PM

And then running and acting like they never said anything in the first place.

bizaro86 · 10-14-2021, 04:49 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Table 5

Funny coming from the Economist, when this was their cover not even a year ago.

Spoiler!

Not that I'm a big coal guy or anything, but these magazines are always great at calling tops and bottoms.

Magazine covers are great contrary indicators. The Businessweek "End of Equities" cover was the start of the greatest equity bull market ever nearly to the day.

Tron_fdc · 10-14-2021, 06:48 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by burn_this_city

KXL wasn't going to be in service until at least 23/24. Biden can't really do much, US producers are beholden to shareholder returns and OPEC is producing below their quotas. People blaming the President for a 100mbdp oil market don't really understand the market.

I’m not at all blaming Biden for the status of the market. But I find it ridiculous that Biden is appealing for more off shore production, when the Democrats have twice now canceled a pipeline with a 600000 bpd capacity out of Canada in favour of Saudi or Russian oil. It’s absurd.

burn_this_city · 10-14-2021, 08:42 PM

OPEC is sitting on 5Mbpd of cut capacity, they're the only ones driving the bus now.

I get the overall sentiment, but until this year they weren't even buying anything from SA and Russia. North America was largely energy self sufficient in 2019/2020. A ton has changed in the last 18 months, shale freight train that made us look redundant is no longer rolling.

Mr.Coffee · 10-14-2021, 08:57 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Tron_fdc

I’m not at all blaming Biden for the status of the market. But I find it ridiculous that Biden is appealing for more off shore production, when the Democrats have twice now canceled a pipeline with a 600000 bpd capacity out of Canada in favour of Saudi or Russian oil. It’s absurd.

There are better descriptors than “absurd”.

Frequitude · 10-14-2021, 09:03 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Tron_fdc

I’m not at all blaming Biden for the status of the market. But I find it ridiculous that Biden is appealing for more off shore production, when the Democrats have twice now canceled a pipeline with a 600000 bpd capacity out of Canada in favour of Saudi or Russian oil. It’s absurd.

I kinda get it unfortunately.

It’s not that it was a pipeline with 600kbpd of capacity. It’s that it was a pipeline with 600kbpd of capacity for many many decades. That’s strategically inconvenient when you want to get as many of your own drops out of the ground as possible in the meantime. The economics of boats are much easier to turn off on a relative whim.

And it’s probably more Venezuelan heavy that we woulda displaced, not Saudi or Russian. But I’ve been out of the loop for a few years so anyone feel free to correct.

Suave · 10-15-2021, 07:28 AM

Nothing changes is we have KXL running right now, we have extra takeaway capacity and more coming. Investors right now don't want production to grow, they want dividend increases, share buybacks and debt repaid. Oil over $80 for a couple months will probably change some minds but budgets are being set for next year and most aren't increasing.

Frankly not running up and trying to bring on as much production as you can when prices spike is better for the industry. We need to level out the boom and bust.

Azure · 10-15-2021, 07:32 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Tron_fdc

I’m not at all blaming Biden for the status of the market. But I find it ridiculous that Biden is appealing for more off shore production, when the Democrats have twice now canceled a pipeline with a 600000 bpd capacity out of Canada in favour of Saudi or Russian oil. It’s absurd.

Appealing to the woke, green party of the political spectrum.

Everyone knows the ideas are not based in reality, but here we are.

Northendzone · 10-15-2021, 07:49 AM

this was a sobering article to read and seems to pick up on some of themes above

https://financialpost.com/commoditie...itre-in-canada

i follow dan the gas price wizard on twitter, and believe most of what he says is reasonable - but i am open to hearing any counterpoints

Macman · 10-15-2021, 08:07 AM

https://www.reuters.com/business/ene...ns-2021-10-15/

And Europe is looking to Russia for their LNG supply. That has to be good for us here somehow. We're a long way from eliminating fossil fuels.

edslunch · 10-15-2021, 08:11 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Northendzone

this was a sobering article to read and seems to pick up on some of themes above

https://financialpost.com/commoditie...itre-in-canada

i follow dan the gas price wizard on twitter, and believe most of what he says is reasonable - but i am open to hearing any counterpoints

$2/litre would hurt a lot of people. On the other hand, we need to be burning less of the stuff - is this enough to change people’s behaviour? Drive less, trade down to a more efficient vehicle, lower your thermostat a few degrees, do some energy renovations…

Northendzone · 10-15-2021, 08:40 AM

would the vehicle marketplace not become really distorted in terms of value of vehicle being traded in? and the availability of more efficient vehicles? the car market is already messy due to the chip shortage.

the impact on the price of food will be something else that will be harder to side step.

CliffFletcher · 10-15-2021, 08:41 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Macman

https://www.reuters.com/business/ene...ns-2021-10-15/

And Europe is looking to Russia for their LNG supply. That has to be good for us here somehow. We're a long way from eliminating fossil fuels.

Europe is fine with sourcing its vital hydrocarbon needs from autocracies like Russia, Saudi Arabia, and Libya, so long as they don’t sully their own hands by developing the filthy stuff themselves.

Germany, in particular, is proving utterly naive and spineless. They’ve basically dropped their pants, presented their balls to Russia, and meekly asked Putin not to squeeze too hard.