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Old 10-12-2021, 11:10 AM   #6321
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Our current energy crisis is a warning to listening to zealots like David Suzuki over pragmatism.

Green Hydrogen is great but impractical. How does a company make money when their inputs rely on the wind blowing and sun shining all the time?

I see Blue as a viable way forward to address climate and maintain the economy.

Not saying I don’t share your worry when the Trudeau’s of the world are maintaining power. CERB for everyone!
I still don't understand why Canadian produced LNG is not seen as a solution going forward.

On the emissions side it is drastically lower than almost all other world produced fossil fuel sources.
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Old 10-12-2021, 11:35 AM   #6322
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It’s because Canadians are quite ignorant about all things energy.

It has become such a reliable staple, supplied so easily, cheaply and robustly that its total value to society has been deleted from the broad societal conscience. This is also a failure of the energy industry for not defending itself properly, and the War Room in no way is an adequate platform to do so.

In Canada we just flick on a light, a tap or go to a relatively inexpensive gas station to fill up. Our homes are all just plugged in and connected to historically cheap natural gas to heat them. We don’t even think about it and yet we definitely expect it while the energy industry gets viewed as pariahs. It’s actually disgusting to be honest how this nation has treated the industry, exhibited such disdain for it while not even having a rats ass clue about how all this #### works.

Why just today I saw another NBF update, which showed an excerpt from a Bloomberg article by Javier Blas, here is the quote (sorry for length):

The climate crisis is real, and energy transition is a necessity, and we must accelerate it — but it’s not a flick of a switch,” said Amos Hochstein, U.S.’s top energy diplomat. “If we want to solve climate change we need to do so while at the same time insulating the global economy from extreme energy shocks.”

For several years, the world has grown complacent about fossil fuel consumption. From oil to coal, peak demand has been the buzzword, always about to happen, but never actually materializing. Then many assumed that some of the drop in consumption during the pandemic was structural, driven by social changes like work-from-home and the hope of a greener recovery. But outside jet-fuel, still hamstrung by travel restrictions, oil demand is today higher than it was in 2019.

The demand surge has challenged many assumptions about how quickly the world would decabornize.

“I’m concerned hydrocarbon demand is not falling fast enough to match the potential under investment in fossil fuels,” said Jason Bordoff, dean of the Columbia Climate School and a former senior energy official in the Obama administration.

Oil is another case where hopes of an early peak in demand are quickly fading
.”

And an economic / energy shock is literally what all Canadians are asking for. Look at the NDP, Green and even Liberal parties’ approach to things, which I can only surmise is a simple reflection of focus groups and what will appeal to the broader Canadian public.

Life is going to get worse in Canada, unless broad attitudes change pretty ####ing quickly.

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Old 10-12-2021, 11:44 AM   #6323
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I still don't understand why Canadian produced LNG is not seen as a solution going forward.

On the emissions side it is drastically lower than almost all other world produced fossil fuel sources.
A dismaying number of Canadians believe we can transition now, today, to renewable energy. And that removing any more fossil fuels from the ground is unnecessary and immoral. They don’t make up a majority, but they’re highly motivated and highly visible.

It will be interesting to see if the coming spike in energy costs opens up Canadians’ eyes about the price we’ll pay to keep those fossil fuels in the ground.
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Old 10-12-2021, 11:49 AM   #6324
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I think North America will be largely spared the worst of the fallout. Canada is shielded by a petro currency and should benefit from the commodity boom. Gas might spike for a bit, but there is so much here that I don't think it will sustain in North America.

Oil is trickier since it seems like shale is shackled by wall street and OPEC is seemingly struggling bring their cuts back. Would expect at some point in 2022 the narrative will change in shale and some players will return to "smart" growth.
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Old 10-12-2021, 12:13 PM   #6325
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Originally Posted by burn_this_city View Post
I think North America will be largely spared the worst of the fallout. Canada is shielded by a petro currency and should benefit from the commodity boom. Gas might spike for a bit, but there is so much here that I don't think it will sustain in North America.

Oil is trickier since it seems like shale is shackled by wall street and OPEC is seemingly struggling bring their cuts back. Would expect at some point in 2022 the narrative will change in shale and some players will return to "smart" growth.
Agreed and those investments will be supported by prices, which are going up. Investing in Canadian energy equities is generally a good idea right now I think.

It’s also supporting green / cleaner energy transitional investments depending on the right companies, which to be frank will be the only sensible way forward.
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Old 10-12-2021, 12:17 PM   #6326
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I think we should dump a bunch of science into clean aviation.. that's a dirty, dirty ass business right now
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Old 10-12-2021, 12:23 PM   #6327
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After a near death experience I think most companies are just happy printing money for the time being. With so much pressure to decarbonize I don't think anyone will throw down $10B on long cycle growth projects. Every project going forward in Alberta will likely have carbon capture from day 1. If demand doesn't peak in next 5 years there will be a struggle to cover the growth.

High prices going forward might be a feature not a bug of the energy transition. Industry will need the capital to sort out the technology to capture the emissions and higher prices will force consumers off of fossil fuels.
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Old 10-12-2021, 12:25 PM   #6328
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I think we should dump a bunch of science into clean aviation.. that's a dirty, dirty ass business right now
That's going to be one of the toughest, last industries to change. You just can't beat the power density of liquid fuels like that. Maybe if they make "green" fuels to replace them, but they often turn out to not be as green as they claim.


Global shipping is a much easier more approachable problem, if you just want to target one industry like that.
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Old 10-12-2021, 12:27 PM   #6329
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I think we should dump a bunch of science into clean aviation.. that's a dirty, dirty ass business right now

I think we need to solve this issue with creative solutions. I think cloning pterodactyls and mounting passenger cabins on them is the way to go.
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Old 10-12-2021, 12:34 PM   #6330
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Quote:
Originally Posted by burn_this_city View Post
After a near death experience I think most companies are just happy printing money for the time being. With so much pressure to decarbonize I don't think anyone will throw down $10B on long cycle growth projects. Every project going forward in Alberta will likely have carbon capture from day 1. If demand doesn't peak in next 5 years there will be a struggle to cover the growth.

High prices going forward might be a feature not a bug of the energy transition. Industry will need the capital to sort out the technology to capture the emissions and higher prices will force consumers off of fossil fuels.
The absence of capital has been a result in North American markets of a refusal to support unadulterated non-sensical / wasteful growth as was the norm over the last few years.

But if companies seek to invest in new technologies they’ll get external capital delivered to them, they won’t only have to rely on higher oil and gas prices (which always go up and down over long term trends anyway). The days of 4-5 guys popping off to just fire up a new junior oil company to then sell for a few million in a few years are over though, unless they have some novel idea for new technologies to test out in things like hydrogen, CCS or renewable tech. But that might be tough to do.
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Old 10-12-2021, 12:35 PM   #6331
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I think we should dump a bunch of science into clean aviation.. that's a dirty, dirty ass business right now
There are a lot worse offenders, a cruise ship passenger is about 4x the greenhouse gas emissions of a commercial airline passenger. One in a necessary mode of travel, the other is rampant waste.
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Old 10-12-2021, 12:37 PM   #6332
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There is work going on in aviation in regards to cleaner fuels, use of electric and such.

https://www.boeing.com/principles/en...tor/index.page

https://www.airbus.com/newsroom/news...explained.html

At one point I believe Airbus was looking at the feasibility of putting an electric motor on the nose gear to taxi the aircraft to and from the runway. Thus saving fuel for those parts of the flight.
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Old 10-12-2021, 12:41 PM   #6333
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The absence of capital has been a result in North American markets of a refusal to support unadulterated non-sensical / wasteful growth as was the norm over the last few years.

But if companies seek to invest in new technologies they’ll get external capital delivered to them, they won’t only have to rely on higher oil and gas prices (which always go up and down over long term trends anyway). The days of 4-5 guys popping off to just fire up a new junior oil company to then sell for a few million in a few years are over though, unless they have some novel idea for new technologies to test out in things like hydrogen, CCS or renewable tech. But that might be tough to do.
I think the junior game has been dead for a while now. You need significantly deeper pockets now and all the easy stuff is gone. Everything else requires significant technology and money. Only one of interest I've seen is the Proton Technologies stuff but they aren't even public and already have industry backing. I think it will be like tech, angel investors or producers will scoop up the good ones before they even list on the venture exchange.
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Old 10-12-2021, 12:41 PM   #6334
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There is work going on in aviation in regards to cleaner fuels, use of electric and such.

https://www.boeing.com/principles/en...tor/index.page

https://www.airbus.com/newsroom/news...explained.html

At one point I believe Airbus was looking at the feasibility of putting an electric motor on the nose gear to taxi the aircraft to and from the runway. Thus saving fuel for those parts of the flight.

Maybe some ford ecoboost needed?

I guess nuclear aviation would be a tad risky

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Old 10-12-2021, 04:06 PM   #6335
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One would think it would be possible to develop cleaner fuels for both ships & planes without disrupting too much?

I know, I know, it isn't as sexy as eating less beef cause those damn cows fart too much, but from a practical sense I would imagine it is feasible.
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Old 10-12-2021, 04:32 PM   #6336
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Originally Posted by burn_this_city View Post
After a near death experience I think most companies are just happy printing money for the time being. With so much pressure to decarbonize I don't think anyone will throw down $10B on long cycle growth projects. Every project going forward in Alberta will likely have carbon capture from day 1. If demand doesn't peak in next 5 years there will be a struggle to cover the growth.

High prices going forward might be a feature not a bug of the energy transition. Industry will need the capital to sort out the technology to capture the emissions and higher prices will force consumers off of fossil fuels.
Previous behaviour suggests that even after a near death experience companies will be reluctant to innovate
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Old 10-12-2021, 04:33 PM   #6337
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Maybe some ford ecoboost needed?

I guess nuclear aviation would be a tad risky
Virgin just towed the planes out to the start of the runway rather than have them burn jet fuel to push them on the ground. So simple
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Old 10-12-2021, 04:46 PM   #6338
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Our port recently welcomed the world’s first hybrid car carrier ship that is equipped with a hybrid electric power supply. Electricity is generated by a solar power generator. The generator is shut off while the ship is in berth while it runs on the lithium-ion batteries. Pretty cool technology
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Old 10-14-2021, 08:42 AM   #6339
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Over $100 CAD for WTI today. ($81x1.24)

Have to think the Canadian dollar is lagging where it should be relative to oil.
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Old 10-14-2021, 09:27 AM   #6340
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Over $100 CAD for WTI today. ($81x1.24)

Have to think the Canadian dollar is lagging where it should be relative to oil.
See! Trudeau was right! Budgets do balance themselves....
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