2021 Expansion Draft Discussion

[powderjunkie]

We can leave the Seattle thread to be more specific to that franchise. It's way too early to do this as rosters will change tremendously, but it's fun to see which teams will face tough situations and which won't, and how signings may be structured between now and then with this draft in mind.

From sureloss in the other thread:

Expansion Draft

Seattle will follow the same rules for the 2021 Expansion Draft as Vegas did in 2017:

Regulations Relating to Seattle Expansion Franchise

* The Seattle franchise must select one player from each presently existing club – all except Vegas – for a total of 30 players (not including additional players who may be acquired as the result of violations of the Expansion Draft rules).

* The Seattle franchise must select the following number of players at each position: 14 forwards, nine defensemen and three goaltenders.

* The Seattle franchise must select a minimum of 20 players who are under contract for the 2021‑22 season.

* The Seattle franchise must select players with an aggregate Expansion Draft value that is between 60-100 percent of the prior season’s upper limit for the salary cap.

* The Seattle franchise may not buy out any of the players selected in the Expansion Draft earlier than the summer following its first season.


Protected Lists

* Clubs will have two options for players they wish to protect in the Expansion Draft:

a) Seven forwards, three defensemen and one goaltender

b) Eight skaters (forwards/defensemen) and one goaltender

* All players who have currently effective and continuing “No Movement” clauses at the time of the Expansion Draft (and who decline to waive such clauses) must be protected (and will be counted toward their club’s applicable protection limits).

* All first- and second-year professionals, as well as all unsigned draft choices, will be exempt from selection (and will not be counted toward their club’s applicable protection limits).


Player Exposure Requirements

* All clubs must meet the following minimum requirements regarding players exposed for selection in the Expansion Draft:

i) One defenseman who is a) under contract in 2021-22 and b) played in 40 or more NHL games the prior season OR played in 70 or more NHL games in the prior two seasons.

ii) Two forwards who are a) under contract in 2021-22 and b) played in 40 or more NHL games the prior season OR played in 70 or more NHL games in the prior two seasons.

iii) One goaltender who is under contract in 2021-22 or will be a restricted free agent at the expiration of his current contract immediately prior to 2021-22. If the club elects to make a restricted free agent goaltender available in order to meet this requirement, that goaltender must have received his qualifying offer prior to the submission of the club’s protected list.

* Players with potential career-ending injuries who have missed more than the previous 60 consecutive games (or who otherwise have been confirmed to have a career-threatening injury) may not be used to satisfy a club’s player exposure requirements, unless approval is received from the NHL. Such players also may be deemed exempt from selection by the League.

[AC]

Interesting trying to project for fall 2021 in a couple places.

1. Gaudreau
2. Monahan
3. Lindholm
4. Tkachuk
5. Backlund
6. Bennett
7. Janko / Dube (depends who has stepped up the most by 2021)

1. Hanifin
2. Valimaki
3. Giordano

1. Rittich

Trade to protect Andersson? Kylington, Mangiapane, one of Janko or Dube will all be available and could be established young talents. Brodie and Hamonic too, damn.

[Eric Vail]

So, this means everyone we currently have in the AHL and NHL will need to be protected, and anyone currently drafted that plays pro next season?

I think the Flames are going to lose a better player this time around. It is too hard to predict who that will be. All we know is that Backlund and Giordano will be protected due to their no-movement clauses.

[Jason14h]

Originally Posted by Eric Vail

So, this means everyone we currently have in the AHL and NHL will need to be protected, and anyone currently drafted that plays pro next season?

I think the Flames are going to lose a better player this time around. It is too hard to predict who that will be. All we know is that Backlund and Giordano will be protected due to their no-movement clauses.

Well we lost a UFA, so I can almost guarantee we loose a better player

[transplant99]

Originally Posted by AC

Interesting trying to project for fall 2021 in a couple places.

1. Gaudreau
2. Monahan
3. Lindholm
4. Tkachuk
5. Backlund
6. Bennett
7. Janko / Dube (depends who has stepped up the most by 2021)

1. Hanifin
2. Valimaki
3. Giordano

1. Rittich

Trade to protect Andersson? Kylington, Mangiapane, one of Janko or Dube will all be available and could be established young talents. Brodie and Hamonic too, damn.

One of those 2 will be long gone by June of 2021.

I know this is just a fun exercise but there will be so many changes to circumstances with the roster between now and then, projecting anything out that far is pure folly.

Though I can see this leading to some heated debates about the value of certain players.

[420since1974]

Actually, at this point in time, no Calgary Flame has a NMC.
Backlund and Giordano have NTCs and do not HAVE to be protected.

[powderjunkie]

At present, Calgary is set up really, really well for this.

Five main forwards, still young/in their prime on decent contracts. No apparent boat anchors with NMC's

Age (2021) 2021-2022 Yrs Remaining
28 Gaudreau 6.75 0
27 Monahan 6.375 1
23 Tkachuk TBD
32 Backlund 5.35 2
27 Lindholm 4.85 2

Leaving two spots for:
27 Jankowski RFA 1 yr prior
25 Bennett RFA 2 yrs prior
28 Czarnik UFA 1 yr prior
23 Dube (RFA that same summer)
Any other young guys who excel (of course, it's almost certain that the roster in these areas will change between now and then)


On D, it's presently very simple:
24 Hanifin 4.95 2

Leaving two spots for:
25 Andersson RFA -1 (1 yr prior)
24 Kylington RFA -1
31 Hamonic UFA -1
31 Brodie UFA -1
38 Giordano (last year of 6.75) - just here for posterity/reference, I can't imagine any reason to use a protection slot on him at that point

If we were to move forward with either Hamonic and/or Brodie, perhaps backloading their deals to be cash heavier on the back end could help protect them without requiring a slot.

And total uncertainty, but flexibility in net. We would be so lucky to find ourselves in an MAF/Murray type situation by then...hopefully we have at least established one obvious guy to hold down the cage in the long-term.

[transplant99]

Originally Posted by Eric Vail

So, this means everyone we currently have in the AHL and NHL will need to be protected, and anyone currently drafted that plays pro next season?

I think the Flames are going to lose a better player this time around. It is too hard to predict who that will be. All we know is that Backlund and Giordano will be protected due to their no-movement clauses.

Niether has a NMC.

Both have NTC, but I dont know if that applies to the expansion draft unless Seattle is specifically listed as a team they wont go to.

[Regorium]

This one is going to be rough for us I think. Backlund and Giordano needing to be protected completely screws us. Ideally both of them would be exposed.

Gaudreau
Monahan
Lindholm
Tkachuk
Backlund
+ 2 forwards that step up over the next two years (Bennett, Janko, Dube etc.)

Hanifin
Valimaki
Giordano

Rittich

We'd probably lose Brodie.

[GC91]

Probably better to discuss 'What If' the draft was at the end of this year or next. This is way too far down the road to project anything realistic.

[Kovaz]

From a Flames perspective, IMO the key factor is how our D corps develops. How do Hanifin, Valimaki, Andersson, and Kylington develop over the next 3 years? What do we do with Brodie and Hamonic when their current contracts expire? How good will Giordano be when he's 39? It could come down to our 4th best D-man vs. Backlund for a protection spot.

One really interesting wrinkle in this is Vegas being exempt from the draft. If a team feels Seattle isn't giving them a fair shake in pre-draft trade negotiations they'll have the additional option of trading draft-eligible players to Vegas for exempt players/draft picks. For example, if we've got 4 D we want to protect (say: Hanifin, Valimaki, Hamonic, Brodie) we'll have the option to trade Brodie to Vegas for a 1st and protect 7F 3D and leave Seattle with nothing.

[AC]

Originally Posted by powderjunkie

38 Giordano (last year of 6.75) - just here for posterity/reference, I can't imagine any reason to use a protection slot on him at that point

I don't see it that way. What are the odds we don't protect our captain?

Even if he's passed his C to Monahan or Tkachuk at that point, I still don't see us leaving him unprotected. Which is why I think a trade for protection scenario is most likely for the 4th D.

[FlamesAddiction]

Originally Posted by Kovaz

From a Flames perspective, IMO the key factor is how our D corps develops. How do Hanifin, Valimaki, Andersson, and Kylington develop over the next 3 years? What do we do with Brodie and Hamonic when their current contracts expire? How good will Giordano be when he's 39? It could come down to our 4th best D-man vs. Backlund for a protection spot.

One really interesting wrinkle in this is Vegas being exempt from the draft. If a team feels Seattle isn't giving them a fair shake in pre-draft trade negotiations they'll have the additional option of trading draft-eligible players to Vegas for exempt players/draft picks. For example, if we've got 4 D we want to protect (say: Hanifin, Valimaki, Hamonic, Brodie) we'll have the option to trade Brodie to Vegas for a 1st and protect 7F 3D and leave Seattle with nothing.

Vegas will have 29 other teams all trying to do that and will have them all by the balls. They won't be giving up a 1st for a player like Brodie under those circumstances (IMO). I would think knowing our situation, we would be lucky to get a 2nd.

Then you have to consider that we would lose another player instead. Say Jankowski, Dube or Andersson. So going out would be one of those players and Brodie, but coming back would be a 2nd rounder. Or we could lose Brodie and keep one of those other players instead of getting a draft pick.

[rohara66]

Originally Posted by powderjunkie

38 Giordano (last year of 6.75) - just here for posterity/reference, I can't imagine any reason to use a protection slot on him at that point

Maybe he's still a really good defenseman?

[GioforPM]

I doubt Gio gets protected, frankly.

But I would expect they'd still have to do a deal to protect Andersson, Hamonic and Brodie. I could see Kylington and, say, Mangiapane offered, and I could live with it.

[SeanCharles]

Gaudreau
Monahan
Tkachuk
Lindholm
Backlund
Bennett
Dube

Valimaki
Hanifin
Andersson

Pending

[d_phaneuf]

Originally Posted by FlamesAddiction

Vegas will have 29 other teams all trying to do that and will have them all by the balls. They won't be giving up a 1st for a player like Brodie under those circumstances (IMO). I would think knowing our situation, we would be lucky to get a 2nd

I dont even know that high, not based on brodie or value

Just the fact that vegas is going to be in an incredibly advantageous situation, especially with eastern conference teams, since there is still a whole idea of dont trade in conference among some GMs

But for every team that is in a situation where they have 1 extra f or d that is way above market value to give up in expansion, vegas can offer draft picks, they could offer young players (of which they will have a ton with all the draft picks they acquired at their expansion draft who would be coming into the league in the next few seasons) and help themselvesnto big improvements, while also helping that other team keep value

[Eric Vail]

Originally Posted by d_phaneuf

I dont even know that high, not based on brodie or value

Just the fact that vegas is going to be in an incredibly advantageous situation, especially with eastern conference teams, since there is still a whole idea of dont trade in conference among some GMs

But for every team that is in a situation where they have 1 extra f or d that is way above market value to give up in expansion, vegas can offer draft picks, they could offer young players (of which they will have a ton with all the draft picks they acquired at their expansion draft who would be coming into the league in the next few seasons) and help themselvesnto big improvements, while also helping that other team keep value

The problem is if a team like the Flames decides not to protect two good defensemen, say Brodie and Harmonic and they decide to trade one to Vegas for a third round pick. Well, Seattle drafts the other one and the Flames are out two good defensemen and only have a 3rd rounder to show for it. They may as well not make the trade and let Seattle take one of them and be left with the other.

The trade scenario only works if you just have one good player left after your protected guys and the rest is garbage. With the Flames depth, they are going to lose a good player.

[The Boy Wonder]

Sorry but anyone saying you protect Gio or Backlund at that point in time are likely not seeing how far in the future this expansion draft is.

Love him but a 37 year old Gio should not be protected over a kylington or Andersson

[Geeoff]

Every team that gave Vegas multiple assets got ####ed IMO. I say just let Seattle take a player.