Canadian Federal Politics Thread v5

[opendoor]

Originally Posted by Azure

https://www.theglobeandmail.com/opin...nearly-enough/

This is why I think interest rates alone are not a good way to control inflation, and it seems like the dunceheads at BoC don't realize that.

We are effectively creating a supply issue for a 'product' that is in high demand, and then we're surprised when that 'product' becomes extremely expensive and when that affects the entire economy.

I don't know, in the last decade the number of households in Canada has gone up by 1.6M. In that same time period, there have been 2.3M new housing completions. Demolitions of existing units lessen the gap somewhat, but the growth of new housing units in the last decade still exceeds the growth in households by a decent margin.

That would point to supply not being used appropriately, more than a lack of it. Investors using units for short-term rentals or leaving them unoccupied would probably be the biggest issues in that regard. And fixing that is a lot easier, faster, and cheaper, than trying to force the entire construction industry to increase its production significantly.

[redforever]

Originally Posted by KootenayFlamesFan

I'm old enough to remember when people respected Jamie Sale.

What a nutjob she's turned into.

Well, I believe she also skated with Theoren Fleury on Blades on Ice or whatever it was called, the show that matched a figure skater with a hockey player. I don't know if they still keep in touch or if he has had any influence on her.

[Locke]

Originally Posted by redforever

Well, I believe she also skated with Theoren Fleury on Blades on Ice or whatever it was called, the show that matched a figure skater with a hockey player. I don't know if they still keep in touch or if he has had any influence on her.

I dont know if 'Q Crazy' is technically contagious.

[Puppet Guy]

Originally Posted by Locke

I dont know if 'Q Crazy' is technically contagious.

NSFW!

[SebC]

Originally Posted by opendoor

I don't know, in the last decade the number of households in Canada has gone up by 1.6M. In that same time period, there have been 2.3M new housing completions.

We are multiple decades behind.

[opendoor]

Originally Posted by SebC

We are multiple decades behind.

The same math holds true for the last 30-40 years. The number of housing unit completions has exceeded the increase in the number of households over the last 10, 20, 30, and 40 years. And even if that wasn't true, housing was pretty affordable 20 years ago; if lack of existing units is driving high prices now, then why didn't it then?

There's plenty of data out of the US that shows that there isn't a whole lot of correlation between an increase in per capita housing units and lower increases in rental prices in metro areas. That's not to say that we don't need more supply. But trying to incentivize home builders to build more supply in order to reduce the amount of money they're making per unit is a difficult proposition, and a long-term one. Particularly in comparison to potentially bringing supply into the market by restricting residential units being used for short-term rentals or speculation.

[Azure]

The federal government says it's dropping all COVID-19 measures at borders on Saturday, meaning travellers will no longer need to provide proof of vaccination when entering Canada or wear masks on planes and trains.

As of Oct. 1, all travellers, regardless of citizenship, will no longer have to:

Submit public health information through the ArriveCAN app or website;
Provide proof of vaccination;
Undergo pre- or on-arrival testing;
Carry out COVID-19-related quarantine or isolation;
Monitor and report if they develop signs or symptoms of COVID-19 upon arriving to Canada;
Undergo health checks for travel on air and rail;
Or wear masks on planes and trains.

Health Minister Jean-Yves Duclos said Monday's decision is not a sign Canada is out of the pandemic, but said the government's data showed the importation of new variants was no longer having an effect on the evolution of the virus in country.

https://www.cbc.ca/news/politics/arr...-end-1.6595710

[Azure]

Originally Posted by opendoor

The same math holds true for the last 30-40 years. The number of housing unit completions has exceeded the increase in the number of households over the last 10, 20, 30, and 40 years. And even if that wasn't true, housing was pretty affordable 20 years ago; if lack of existing units is driving high prices now, then why didn't it then?

There's plenty of data out of the US that shows that there isn't a whole lot of correlation between an increase in per capita housing units and lower increases in rental prices in metro areas. That's not to say that we don't need more supply. But trying to incentivize home builders to build more supply in order to reduce the amount of money they're making per unit is a difficult proposition, and a long-term one. Particularly in comparison to potentially bringing supply into the market by restricting residential units being used for short-term rentals or speculation.

Well for one there is a big labor shortage. Hard not to talk to a single person working in the industry who isn't dealing with some issue relating to either hiring, or finding sub-contractors to do work for them.

The government has promised to build about 400,000 homes annually for the next decade.

There’s just one problem: It’s not clear there are enough workers to build them.

“The reality is, they’re dealing with labour shortages, they’re dealing with material shortages, they’re dealing with all kinds of challenges in obtaining the material that they need to build homes,” said Jean-François Perrault, chief economist at Scotiabank.

“So it’s not even clear that you’d be able to increase the (construction) pace significantly, given how challenging a labour and a material situation is facing the industry…right now.”

https://globalnews.ca/news/8752010/h...ge-cost-homes/

[Locke]

Originally Posted by Azure

Well for one there is a big labor shortage. Hard not to talk to a single person working in the industry who isn't dealing with some issue relating to either hiring, or finding sub-contractors to do work for them.



https://globalnews.ca/news/8752010/h...ge-cost-homes/

What did they do with all those FEMA Tents from the Fyre Festival?

[Fuzz]

Originally Posted by Azure

Well for one there is a big labor shortage. Hard not to talk to a single person working in the industry who isn't dealing with some issue relating to either hiring, or finding sub-contractors to do work for them.

https://globalnews.ca/news/8752010/h...ge-cost-homes/

Hrmm, maybe if we just increase immigration we can have more workers to fill the labour shortages...

[Azure]

Originally Posted by Fuzz

Hrmm, maybe if we just increase immigration we can have more workers to fill the labour shortages...

That is absolutely the strategy right now, and regardless of how one might feel about immigration, the fact is that even outside of the housing economy, immigrants are filling a LOT of jobs that would otherwise not be filled.

But at the same time, our inability to build more cost effective homes is creating a shortage. We simply need more multi-unit places built. Its insane how much restriction there is that prohibits it.

[PeteMoss]

Originally Posted by Azure

That is absolutely the strategy right now, and regardless of how one might feel about immigration, the fact is that even outside of the housing economy, immigrants are filling a LOT of jobs that would otherwise not be filled.

But at the same time, our inability to build more cost effective homes is creating a shortage. We simply need more multi-unit places built. Its insane how much restriction there is that prohibits it.

In a lot of cases - even when the rules allow it - the Nimbys will fly in and get the project cut down because it doesn't "fit the neighbourhood' or whatever.

That said - you drive to Toronto and they are building up condo buildings like wild and prices there don't go down.

[SebC]

Originally Posted by opendoor

Particularly in comparison to potentially bringing supply into the market by restricting residential units being used for short-term rentals or speculation.

Short-term rentals are also necessary both for residents in transitions and for bringing in tourist dollars (which both helps the economy and adds vibrancy through supporting commerce). Cutting that sector to prop up long-term rental is not necessarily a bad trade off, but it's certainly a costly measure, compared to getting rid of NIMBY zoning rules.

Of course the other side of the affordability coin bears looking at as well. Increasing income inequality thanks to the wealthy capturing the benefits of most of the productivity growth in the economy certainly isn't helping the middle class afford homes.

[Mr.Coffee]

Originally Posted by Azure

That is absolutely the strategy right now, and regardless of how one might feel about immigration, the fact is that even outside of the housing economy, immigrants are filling a LOT of jobs that would otherwise not be filled.

But at the same time, our inability to build more cost effective homes is creating a shortage. We simply need more multi-unit places built. Its insane how much restriction there is that prohibits it.

I'd be VERY interested to know what the profit margins of these businesses typically are, and what the wages / compensation plans that are being offered to workers look like.

[Fuzzy14]

Issue with relying on immigration to solve our problem with shortages of skilled labour is twofold: 1) immigration processing times right now are INSANE. Good candidates wait years to get their case reviewed by IRCC, and 2) there is a serious lack of affordable housing to house these individuals once they arrive in Canada.

[cal_guy]

Originally Posted by opendoor

I don't know, in the last decade the number of households in Canada has gone up by 1.6M. In that same time period, there have been 2.3M new housing completions. Demolitions of existing units lessen the gap somewhat, but the growth of new housing units in the last decade still exceeds the growth in households by a decent margin.

That would point to supply not being used appropriately, more than a lack of it. Investors using units for short-term rentals or leaving them unoccupied would probably be the biggest issues in that regard. And fixing that is a lot easier, faster, and cheaper, than trying to force the entire construction industry to increase its production significantly.

This article from Mike Moffatt address housing completions exceeding household formation among other things. The basic gist is that you need a house to from a new household so naturally completions lead new households.

https://mikepmoffatt.medium.com/debu...t-2ae48fb44e3e

[SebC]

Originally Posted by cal_guy

This article from Mike Moffatt address housing completions exceeding household formation among other things. The basic gist is that you need a house to from a new household so naturally completions lead new households.

https://mikepmoffatt.medium.com/debu...ment-2ae48fb44

Well it would, if this were your link.

https://mikepmoffatt.medium.com/debu...t-2ae48fb44e3e

[Azure]

Originally Posted by Fuzzy14

Issue with relying on immigration to solve our problem with shortages of skilled labour is twofold: 1) immigration processing times right now are INSANE. Good candidates wait years to get their case reviewed by IRCC, and 2) there is a serious lack of affordable housing to house these individuals once they arrive in Canada.

Both of these things can not be emphasized enough.

Even if you pay an immigrant worker a $20 per hour starting wage, there is no way they can afford a $500k house or a $2000 month condo.

We need short term multi unit housing, and in most cases more actual subsidized low income housing. That means getting zoning approvals, but also developers that commit to building these types of projects.

[calculoso]

Uhm. Wow. The MP in the video. NotSureIfSerious

https://twitter.com/user/status/1574849785294688259

[Fuzz]

CPC, showing Canadians they have the intelligence of a cob of corn. The Rebel will eat it up, though.