12-05-2018, 08:16 AM
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#81
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Owner
Join Date: Dec 2001
Location: Calgary
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Update on Team Metrics vs Standings (Differentials)
Disclaimer: Not suggesting the metrics are more important than the standings. Not suggesting every team with good metrics will eventually win. Not suggesting every team with bad metrics will eventually lose. Just an interesting look at where teams are either hinting that change could be coming or where the system of analytics is breaking down.
Code:
Team Rk Stats Diff
New Jersey Devils 29 9 20
Philadelphia Flyers 27 8 19
Carolina Hurricanes 20 4 16
Vegas Golden Knights 15 1 14
San Jose Sharks 16 3 13
Pittsburgh Penguins 24 11 13
Florida Panthers 25 12 13
Los Angeles Kings 31 19 12
St Louis Blues 30 22 8
Minnesota Wild 12 5 7
Montreal Canadiens 14 7 7
Chicago Blackhawks 28 21 7
Edmonton Oilers 22 18 4
Calgary Flames 7 6 1
Tampa Bay Lightning 1 2 -1
Arizona Coyotes 19 20 -1
Vancouver Canucks 26 27 -1
Boston Bruins 11 13 -2
Columbus Blue Jackets 13 16 -3
Nashville Predators 3 10 -7
New York Islanders 17 24 -7
Ottawa Senators 23 30 -7
Detroit Red Wings 21 29 -8
Colorado Avalanche 5 14 -9
Winnipeg Jets 6 15 -9
New York Rangers 18 28 -10
Dallas Stars 10 23 -13
Toronto Maple Leafs 2 17 -15
Washington Capitals 9 25 -16
Buffalo Sabres 4 26 -22
Anaheim Ducks 8 31 -23
My picks:
Teams Due to Fall:
1. Buffalo - sliding now, won ten in a row but only three in regulation. 22 spot disparity.
2. Ducks - riding the goalie far too much and he's injury prone. Ducks are ranked between 28th and 31st in all six indices. 23 spot disparity
3. Rangers - just too thin, ranked 25+ in all defensive measures with an old goaltender.
Teams Due to Rise:
1. Pittsburgh - good offensively, above average defensively but goaltending and shooting percentage is lagging. 13 spot disparity.
2. Philadelphia - very good defensively, but average netminding as per every year.
3. Vegas - single digit in every single category ranking and on a tear of late. Will be a top ten standings team soon.
Teams that Break the Model:
1. Carolina - when you're shooting percentage is breaking away from the pack on the down side you start to wonder why they lead the league in all three shot generation metrics. Fishy.
2. Toronto - unlikely to fall with high end forward skill and an all world goaltender. They don't need to control 60 minutes and generate favourable numbers to win.
3. Washington - throw back heavy team that may be seeing the league moving past them, but have the goaltending and skill to stick with the contenders.
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12-05-2018, 08:19 AM
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#82
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Franchise Player
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Bingo
Update on Team Metrics vs Standings (Differentials)
Disclaimer: Not suggesting the metrics are more important than the standings. Not suggesting every team with good metrics will eventually win. Not suggesting every team with bad metrics will eventually lose. Just an interesting look at where teams are either hinting that change could be coming or where the system of analytics is breaking down.
Code:
Team Rk Stats Diff
New Jersey Devils 29 9 20
Philadelphia Flyers 27 8 19
Carolina Hurricanes 20 4 16
Vegas Golden Knights 15 1 14
San Jose Sharks 16 3 13
Pittsburgh Penguins 24 11 13
Florida Panthers 25 12 13
Los Angeles Kings 31 19 12
St Louis Blues 30 22 8
Minnesota Wild 12 5 7
Montreal Canadiens 14 7 7
Chicago Blackhawks 28 21 7
Edmonton Oilers 22 18 4
Calgary Flames 7 6 1
Tampa Bay Lightning 1 2 -1
Arizona Coyotes 19 20 -1
Vancouver Canucks 26 27 -1
Boston Bruins 11 13 -2
Columbus Blue Jackets 13 16 -3
Nashville Predators 3 10 -7
New York Islanders 17 24 -7
Ottawa Senators 23 30 -7
Detroit Red Wings 21 29 -8
Colorado Avalanche 5 14 -9
Winnipeg Jets 6 15 -9
New York Rangers 18 28 -10
Dallas Stars 10 23 -13
Toronto Maple Leafs 2 17 -15
Washington Capitals 9 25 -16
Buffalo Sabres 4 26 -22
Anaheim Ducks 8 31 -23
My picks:
Teams Due to Fall:
1. Buffalo - sliding now, won ten in a row but only three in regulation. 22 spot disparity.
2. Ducks - riding the goalie far too much and he's injury prone. Ducks are ranked between 28th and 31st in all six indices. 23 spot disparity
3. Rangers - just too thin, ranked 25+ in all defensive measures with an old goaltender.
Teams Due to Rise:
1. Pittsburgh - good offensively, above average defensively but goaltending and shooting percentage is lagging. 13 spot disparity.
2. Philadelphia - very good defensively, but average netminding as per every year.
3. Vegas - single digit in every single category ranking and on a tear of late. Will be a top ten standings team soon.
Teams that Break the Model:
1. Carolina - when you're shooting percentage is breaking away from the pack on the down side you start to wonder why they lead the league in all three shot generation metrics. Fishy.
2. Toronto - unlikely to fall with high end forward skill and an all world goaltender. They don't need to control 60 minutes and generate favourable numbers to win.
3. Washington - throw back heavy team that may be seeing the league moving past them, but have the goaltending and skill to stick with the contenders.
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Great post, thanks.
The Devils have the greatest disparity, between stats and rank—. Haven’t watched them at all, is there a storyline with why they’re an outlier too?
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12-05-2018, 08:26 AM
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#83
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Owner
Join Date: Dec 2001
Location: Calgary
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Quote:
Originally Posted by cam_wmh
Great post, thanks.
The Devils have the greatest disparity, between stats and rank—. Haven’t watched them at all, is there a storyline with why they’re an outlier too?
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New Jersey is a middling team or worse in shot metrics, but very good in high danger splits. Seems like a team maybe playing not to lose as opposed to having the depth to generate the pace of the game.
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12-05-2018, 09:12 AM
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#84
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Franchise Player
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Quote:
Originally Posted by cam_wmh
Great post, thanks.
The Devils have the greatest disparity, between stats and rank—. Haven’t watched them at all, is there a storyline with why they’re an outlier too?
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Anaheim (at -23) and Buffalo (at -22) have the greatest disparity.
As far as ANA goes, I think they do a good job of playing possum, because they know 1) that they have great goaltending, and 2) that they can score when they get the chances. So they are playing to that style, and I don't think they are poised to fall as much as some do.
BUF is getting enough goals, and enough timely goals, to keep them in games, but they only have 10 regulation wins, along with 4 in OT and 4 in SOs. To me, they seem more poised to settle back down to their stats somewhat. (i.e. they have been somewhat fortunate to date)
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12-05-2018, 09:33 AM
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#85
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Owner
Join Date: Dec 2001
Location: Calgary
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Enoch Root
Anaheim (at -23) and Buffalo (at -22) have the greatest disparity.
As far as ANA goes, I think they do a good job of playing possum, because they know 1) that they have great goaltending, and 2) that they can score when they get the chances. So they are playing to that style, and I don't think they are poised to fall as much as some do.
BUF is getting enough goals, and enough timely goals, to keep them in games, but they only have 10 regulation wins, along with 4 in OT and 4 in SOs. To me, they seem more poised to settle back down to their stats somewhat. (i.e. they have been somewhat fortunate to date)
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Yeah I had Buffalo at #1.
Anaheim will wear Gibson out, and he's already injury prone, playing the way they're playing.
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12-05-2018, 09:33 AM
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#86
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Franchise Player
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Carolina is an interesting story. Similar story as last year, yet significant changes in personnel and a new head coach.
I'm with you on Vegas, they just look good on the ice right now.
I think the Sharks will be sticking around all year. They have enough talent to improve their underlying numbers.
As for the Ducks, they have to be happy with their results to date and I think what we are going to see is they start to improve their underlying numbers as the year goes on. That organization has figured out how to win hockey games.
The Flames are doing great at making hay right now. Keep improving, avoid losing streaks and the division is well within reach. Goaltending though...
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12-09-2018, 10:57 AM
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#87
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Owner
Join Date: Dec 2001
Location: Calgary
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Update on team differentials:
Interesting to see the Flames move into the unsustainable group to an extent ... moved up in the standings three spots in the last five days while moving down in metrics the same.
Code:
Team Rk Stats Diff
New Jersey Devils 28 9 19
Carolina Hurricanes 20 3 17
Philadelphia Flyers 27 11 16
Vegas Golden Knights 15 1 14
Florida Panthers 25 12 13
Los Angeles Kings 31 18 13
Pittsburgh Penguins 21 8 13
Minnesota Wild 16 5 11
Chicago Blackhawks 30 20 10
Montreal Canadiens 14 4 10
St Louis Blues 29 22 7
Arizona Coyotes 24 21 3
San Jose Sharks 9 6 3
Edmonton Oilers 17 15 2
Boston Bruins 13 13 0
Tampa Bay Lightning 1 2 -1
Nashville Predators 5 7 -2
Vancouver Canucks 26 29 -3
Columbus Blue Jackets 12 16 -4
New York Islanders 18 23 -5
Detroit Red Wings 22 28 -6
Winnipeg Jets 8 14 -6
Calgary Flames 3 10 -7
Ottawa Senators 23 30 -7
New York Rangers 19 27 -8
Dallas Stars 11 24 -13
Colorado Avalanche 4 19 -15
Toronto Maple Leafs 2 17 -15
Washington Capitals 7 25 -18
Buffalo Sabres 6 26 -20
Anaheim Ducks 10 31 -21
Buffalo has now lost five straight, one my picks in the top ten in standings that shouldn't hold up. Anaheim continues to win on Gibson.
Toronto amazing offensive metrics and the skill to finish, while giving up way too much. I do wonder if that bites them in the ass.
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12-16-2018, 09:40 AM
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#88
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Owner
Join Date: Dec 2001
Location: Calgary
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The win yesterday was an interesting one for the Flames in that they didn't give up a lot but also didn't generate as much as they usually do.
Having guys that can finish has been a boon this year, as they're scoring goals at a pretty high rate.
Before updating the regular stuff, here are the team rankings since the Pittsburgh loss (up to that point the Flames were giving up too much.
Prevention:
Shot attempts 1st
Scoring Chances 1st
High Danger Chances 6th
Creation:
Shot attempts 14th
Scoring Chances 11th
High Danger Chances 13th
They've become a very good defensive team with weapons that let them get by without having to dominate player to generate enough scoring chances to win.
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12-16-2018, 09:53 AM
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#89
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Owner
Join Date: Dec 2001
Location: Calgary
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Regular Update:
Team standings vs metrics
Code:
Team Rk Stats Diff
Philadelphia Flyers 29 9 20
Carolina Hurricanes 21 5 16
Vegas Golden Knights 17 1 16
Los Angeles Kings 31 16 15
New Jersey Devils 27 13 14
Chicago Blackhawks 30 20 10
San Jose Sharks 13 4 9
Montreal Canadiens 11 3 8
Florida Panthers 24 17 7
Minnesota Wild 15 8 7
St Louis Blues 28 23 5
Pittsburgh Penguins 16 11 5
Arizona Coyotes 25 21 4
Columbus Blue Jackets 14 14 0
New York Islanders 18 19 -1
Calgary Flames 6 7 -1
Tampa Bay Lightning 1 2 -1
Boston Bruins 10 12 -2
Ottawa Senators 26 29 -3
Nashville Predators 3 6 -3
Vancouver Canucks 22 28 -6
New York Rangers 20 27 -7
Detroit Red Wings 23 30 -7
Dallas Stars 19 26 -7
Colorado Avalanche 8 15 -7
Winnipeg Jets 2 10 -8
Edmonton Oilers 12 22 -10
Toronto Maple Leafs 5 18 -13
Buffalo Sabres 7 25 -18
Washington Capitals 4 24 -20
Anaheim Ducks 9 31 -22
Good Numbers - No Results:
1. Philly imploding - don't generate much, but stingy, goaltending letting them down
2. Hurricanes - not great defending, put everything on net, don't finish
3. Sharks - big blemish is high danger against. They're the Flames from October without the correction.
Bad Numbers - Good Results
1. Toronto - great attack numbers, terrible defensively. Bailed out by Andersson
2. Buffalo - weak attack numbers in totals, but the best finishers of high danger chances in the league to date.
3. Edmonton - With Hitchcock they've moved into the unsustainable group. 19th, 19th and 22nd in terms of generation. 14th, 21st and 21st in terms of prevention. Tick tick tick
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12-16-2018, 11:06 AM
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#90
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Franchise Player
Join Date: Nov 2006
Location: Salmon with Arms
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Anaheim is unbelievably lucky
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12-16-2018, 12:44 PM
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#91
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Franchise Player
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Bingo
The win yesterday was an interesting one for the Flames in that they didn't give up a lot but also didn't generate as much as they usually do.
Having guys that can finish has been a boon this year, as they're scoring goals at a pretty high rate.
Before updating the regular stuff, here are the team rankings since the Pittsburgh loss (up to that point the Flames were giving up too much.
Prevention:
Shot attempts 1st
Scoring Chances 1st
High Danger Chances 6th
Creation:
Shot attempts 14th
Scoring Chances 11th
High Danger Chances 13th
They've become a very good defensive team with weapons that let them get by without having to dominate player to generate enough scoring chances to win.
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Just posted in the Peters thread, but since the PIT game, the Flames are #1 in GA and #1 in SAPG.
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02-14-2019, 01:40 PM
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#92
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Owner
Join Date: Dec 2001
Location: Calgary
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Flames Team Metrics by Month
February
What's working?
-Five on five shot attempts, scoring chances and high danger chances for at season high
-Powerplay creating more than at any point in the season
-Goalies stopping more pucks shorthanded
What's broken?
-Team five on five shooting percentage is down, but not to Oct/Nov levels
-Team save percentage down considerably five on five
-PP shooting percentage at season lows
-Giving up for shot attempts and scoring chances than even October five on five and shorthanded
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02-28-2019, 03:17 PM
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#93
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Owner
Join Date: Dec 2001
Location: Calgary
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Literally zero reaction to this last time I posted but I'll give it another shot.
Summary: Five on Five
- More puck to the net in February than any other month
- Against in line with Dec and Jan, not as stingy as November.
- Other shooting metrics all up
- Shooting percentage well off from Dec and Jan
- after a slow start, PDO back to 101 range (slightly lucky)
Summary: PK
- still allowing way too much
- improved PK almost all on goaltending
Summary: PP
- Huge jump in shot attempts, but a drop in quality
- Huge drop in pp shooting percentage after off the charts January
Bottom line more sustainable winning than the month of January brought.
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02-28-2019, 03:59 PM
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#94
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Franchise Player
Join Date: Sep 2003
Location: Calgary, AB
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Thanks Bingo. I always read these and digest them. Appreciate you putting the work in.
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