[CP Story] Are the Flames Poised to Break Out?

[Bingo]

Are the Flames poised to break out?

A look at the Flames underlying numbers and why a run up the standings is just around the corner.

[CroFlames]

Good article Darcy. How much are the Flames paying you to spread their propaganda? I kid.

I'm still not convinced. The very stats you are citing in your article are what kept giving me hope in the 2nd half of last year and so far this year.

But this team is missing that feeling or x-factor for me. They appear to come out flat or sleeping more often than not. Why is this? This group was built the right way by the GM, but I fear this is not the right coach to lead them and get the most out of them. They are falling short of expectations in almost all categories, not least the standings. I would have expected the underlying stats that point towards more success come to fruition by now. Enough minutes of hockey have been played, yet they are still well below expectations.

I hope I'm wrong and they do turn it around, but I'm not confident it since we're almost 40% done the season.

[madmike]

Great piece. I've found it frustrating that on paper, the Flames are everything Treliving wanted them to be - a possession-based team that consistently out-chances opponents - but they aren't able to translate that into points. Hopefully that changes soon.

[transplant99]

Optimism reigns supreme!!

Hope you are right and all the fancy stats actually have some value.

Without understanding much of what those charts show, i certainly agree the team seems to be snakebitten when it comes to bounces for and against. (Scoring vs just missing and bounces in their own net that normally wouldnt happen)

Lot's of tough games upcoming so i think we will have a handle on what the club is by this time in January.

Hopefully its all good, we deserve it if for no other reason than we aren't Edmonton.

[nfotiu]

There's definitely something up with their home play. There are only 6 teams in the league with a worse home record than us and only 4 teams with a better home record. I think we started last season like that as well before it evened out. Probably some kind of luck over a small sample size at home that will correct itself is a probable explanation even without analysis to back it up.

Hopefully their road play is more indicative of who they are, and the home record corrects to correlate with their road record vs the other way around.

[theg69]

Excellent analysis - it actually confirms my suspicion that Mike Smith has been subpar on home ice this season.

He has been dynamite on the road (stealing us a few games) - but on home ice, he definitely has struggled apart from that recent shutout against the Coyotes. I think if he plays as well at home as on the road, the home record will begin to improve.

I looked up the stats:

Home: 7-7, .896 save percentage, and 3.11 GAA
Road: 6-2-3, .944 save percentage, and 1.95 GAA

Wow - they are even more discrepant that I thought...

[Itse]

I wish I could share your positive feelings about the team feeling better.

Which is somewhat odd, rationally. I think the roster is undeniably better than last season, and much as I've lost my faith in Gulutzan I don't think he's somehow worse than before, so I should be expecting better results. But looking at them play I just don't.

"PDO" as a measurement of "luck" is still ridiculous.

[corporatejay]

If the flames play the way they have since the Toronto game they will climb quickly. They are playing as sound defensively as they ever have and the offense will break out.

[cofias]

Originally Posted by Itse

I wish I could share your positive feelings about the team feeling better.

Which is somewhat odd, rationally. I think the roster is undeniably better than last season, and much as I've lost my faith in Gulutzan I don't think he's somehow worse than before, so I should be expecting better results. But looking at them play I just don't.

"PDO" as a measurement of "luck" is still ridiculous.

PDO is a dumb stat, but the Flames' awful shooting % and the fact that they are heavily outchancing opponents is a pretty solid indicator that they are unlucky and not receiving the results they "deserve" based on their play, especially since they have generally decent goaltending this season. The Flames have many players who have previously been good at finishing so in my opinion it comes down to luck.

[Bingo]

To me the GM is in charge of putting a roster together that looks good on paper.

The coach is charge of putting them on lines and configurations that allow them to out chance and out play the opposition.

The players are in charge of execution and finish.

This is all on the players right now, the numbers say the Flames are a top ten team with two left feet.

[Itse]

Originally Posted by cofias

PDO is a dumb stat, but the Flames' awful shooting % and the fact that they are heavily outchancing opponents is a pretty solid indicator that they are unlucky and not receiving the results they "deserve" based on their play, especially since they have generally decent goaltending this season. The Flames have many players who have previously been good at finishing so in my opinion it comes down to luck.

I'm not a huge believer in those "outchancing" numbers either. Really most hockey stats IMO seem pretty dubious to me. When I watch the games, I see a team that's been getting about the results they have deserved.

I think they can play better, but that's what it's going to take to win more. I don't think they're in any way due.

[transplant99]

Originally Posted by Bingo

To me the GM is in charge of putting a roster together that looks good on paper.

The coach is charge of putting them on lines and configurations that allow them to out chance and out player the opposition.

The players are in charge of execution and finish.

This is all on the players right now, the numbers say the Flames are a top ten team with two left feet.

Might be the best breakdown of how it works i have seen.

Good stuff.

[colbym72]

Originally Posted by Itse

I'm not a huge believer in those "outchancing" numbers either. Really most hockey stats IMO seem pretty dubious to me. When I watch the games, I see a team that's been getting about the results they have deserved.

I think they can play better, but that's what it's going to take to win more. I don't think they're in any way due.

Advanced stats are not about one game or even a few. They are about measuring success to predict future outcomes and long term success. The stats the Flames are producing say that historically, things should continue to trend in the right direction and Ws should begin to be eaten.

[Cali Panthers Fan]

Well until recently, the 3rd line was generating pressure and chances, but not finishing. Now they're finishing to some degree.

The top line was finishing a lot of chances early, but they've gone cold, and are now missing wide open nets. That's unlucky and poor finishing at the same time.

The 2nd line does nothing but limit the opposition and generate shot attempts, but few are of the extremely dangerous variety. Plus, neither of Backlund or Frolik has been all that good at burying chances this year. So perhaps that will improve as well.

Don't get me started on the 4th line we've had this year, but at least they're starting to chip in and create some pressure now and then. I've liked Lazar and Brouwer together so far. Just a shame that Versteeg is out.

I think there's some truth to what Bingo is saying, and it's possible to see this trend pick up after Christmas. It's also just as likely that this current trend will continue and everyone will then jump on the advanced stat arguments as being bogus.

What I will say is this: seeing the corsi and scoring chances be so high gives reasons for optimism. If the Flames were NOT doing these things and getting their current results, there would be little reason to believe it would get much better, and we would all be hoping for a wild card playoff spot. However, this is a double-edged sword, and it means expectations will be higher for this team the remainder of this year, and if there isn't significant improvement from last year, I can see a lot of people claiming this season as a waste of prime competition years, and then putting that blame squarely on Gulutzan's shoulders.

It should not be lost on anyone that the Flames have gone from one of the worst Corsi teams under Hartley to one of the best Corsi teams in the league under Gulutzan. To me that indicates that GG has been successful, in at least his ability to get the players to play his style of game. Whether or not you agree that it's an effective style is another point entirely.

So I guess, I agree with the sentiment that it's about player execution, and just about everything has gone right except the actual goals for/goals against, and obviously, wins and losses.

It will come....patience.

[Red]

Originally Posted by Bingo

To me the GM is in charge of putting a roster together that looks good on paper.

The coach is charge of putting them on lines and configurations that allow them to out chance and out play the opposition.

The players are in charge of execution and finish.

This is all on the players right now, the numbers say the Flames are a top ten team with two left feet.

IMO the coach is responsible to deploy players in a way that makes them and the team as sucessful as it can be Seeing that outside of fancy stats this team is average or poor at everything else, this coaching staff is failing.

Outchancing doesn't always equal success. Just look at our last few seasons. Or the Oilers.

[Bingo]

Originally Posted by Red

IMO the coach is responsible to deploy players in a way that makes them and the team as sucessful as it can be Seeing that outside of fancy stats this team is average or poor at everything else, this coaching staff is failing.

Outchancing doesn't always equal success. Just look at our last few seasons. Or the Oilers.

Not sure I follow on that one.

No offence but it seems like if you have your mind made up that you don't like the coach you'll just toss what doesn't fit your narrative.

But I'll indulge ...

"deploy players in a way that makes them and the team as sucessful as it can be"

A system that routinely out shoots and out chances the opposition is the very definition of coaching for success isn't it?

"Outchancing doesn't always equal success"

It doesn't when the players don't execute. But what more can a coach do but create a system where you get more chances?

[Bingo]

Flames by thirds in the firs third.

Game 1-10

Corsi: 50.3%
Shots: 47.6% (Mike Smith key)
Chances: 49.3% (Mike Smith key)

Games 11-20

Corsi: 53.7%
Shots: 53.1%
Chances: 56.1%

Games 21-31 (11 games)

Corsi: 53.9%
Shots: 55.0%
Chances: 56.7%

This isn't a recent thing, they've been playing well for 2/3 of the season.

[Bingo]

Here are the Flames game to game visually



Worst four games of the season game in the first 7 games, they've been pretty solid since then.

[Inglewood Jack]

Originally Posted by Bingo

Here are the Flames game to game visually

this must be the real kind of visually better...

I'm a believer that the streak that puts them permanently at 10+ over .500 is coming up soon, barring any sort of complete goaltending or shooting collapse.

[Bingo]

For contrast ...

The LA Kings

Almost the polar opposite of the Flames;

1. High goal share with ...
2. Middling shot share and ...
3. Middling shot attempts but with ...
4. A high degree of good fortune ...
5. and high execution despite not out chancing the opposition