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Old 11-25-2014, 02:43 PM   #1
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Market trends in a easy and fun way to read.
For a clearer version emailed to you once a month, please send inquiry to info@tmunroe.com

Travis Munroe
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Old 11-25-2014, 03:55 PM   #2
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Very interesting. Thanks for posting this.

You can already see the effects of oil on the supply of for sale homes vs bought homes. In the last 4 months there had been a significant rise in the amount of inventory vs homes sold.

If the trend continues of more supply and less demand it will only be a matter of time before prices drop. The gap on inventory vs sold is getting bigger and bigger.

What are you seeing personally Travis? Is the market cooling off as much as it looks?
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Old 11-25-2014, 04:09 PM   #3
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I don't think oil is the only thing at play here. There's a lot of factors that can cause the real estate market to continue an upward trend even if oil takes a dive. If the real estate market was only affected by oil we would see equal fluctuations.
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Old 11-25-2014, 04:20 PM   #4
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I think it will have a slight impact but really don't see it being felt by most. Homes are going to sit on the market longer this time of year as there are way less buyers. I still come across plenty of overpriced homes where the seller is obviously trying to bait someone in.
I think the coming months will be a better indicator with more of a sample size.

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Old 11-25-2014, 04:22 PM   #5
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Quote:
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I don't think oil is the only thing at play here. There's a lot of factors that can cause the real estate market to continue an upward trend even if oil takes a dive. If the real estate market was only affected by oil we would see equal fluctuations.
Calgary is a petro based economy and the main predictor of our economy is the price of oil. Look at a 30 year trend of the price of oil vs housing prices in Calgary and you'll find the two are almost identical in terms of trends.
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Old 11-25-2014, 04:39 PM   #6
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Calgary is a petro based economy and the main predictor of our economy is the price of oil. Look at a 30 year trend of the price of oil vs housing prices in Calgary and you'll find the two are almost identical in terms of trends.
I don't disagree that oil plays a big role but there's much more to it. Looking at the 30 year trend there's similarities but it's not identical. Since 2007 real estate looks steady compared to the dips and peaks of oil.
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Old 11-25-2014, 05:05 PM   #7
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I don't disagree that oil plays a big role but there's much more to it. Looking at the 30 year trend there's similarities but it's not identical. Since 2007 real estate looks steady compared to the dips and peaks of oil.
Huh? The price of oil and Calgary housing prices have continued to correlate over the past 8 years. Calgary had a major correction in 2008-2009 just as the global oil price fell thru the floor. And during the Calgary housing 2010-2014 boom oil prices have been strong.

I'm a bullish long-term on the Calgary economy but as a born and raised Calgarian I'm also very aware of the ups and downs of a petro based economy and the volatility of oil. We're heading for a down right now and a significant one at that.
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Old 11-26-2014, 09:31 AM   #8
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I always like seeing data and various displays. The inventory one could possibly be more useful as a 16 or 18 month display though so that the 2014 summer season can be compared with the 2013 summer season (and as time progresses the 2013/2014 winter season can be compared with the 2014/2015 winter.)
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Old 12-07-2014, 07:40 PM   #9
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Quick question.

If I see a house listed for $450 what's a general below sale price? I am assuming things are going for less than asking at the moment.
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Old 12-08-2014, 11:10 AM   #10
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Quick question.

If I see a house listed for $450 what's a general below sale price? I am assuming things are going for less than asking at the moment.
A number of things will determine what the selling price ends up being. Typically I will perform my own market assessment on the property if a client is interested in writing an offer. Knowing its true value vs the asking price will help us determine what we are going to offer / what the buyer is willing to pay.

That said, 98% is a pretty standard number right now. $450,000 - 98% of the asking price would be $9,000 off.
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Old 12-08-2014, 01:33 PM   #11
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A number of things will determine what the selling price ends up being. Typically I will perform my own market assessment on the property if a client is interested in writing an offer. Knowing its true value vs the asking price will help us determine what we are going to offer / what the buyer is willing to pay.

That said, 98% is a pretty standard number right now. $450,000 - 98% of the asking price would be $9,000 off.
Thanks. It was more of a curiosity thing. Looking at a job interview tomorrow and just contemplating if a move back to Calgary is an option. Definitely a lot cheaper than out here.
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Old 12-08-2014, 02:32 PM   #12
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Bump for update. For those who have subscribed, the full version will be out within a day or 2.
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Old 01-11-2015, 10:41 PM   #13
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January is now up
Subscribers should have received the full package over the weekend.

Subscribe using the link in the first post and have access to twice the stats, real estate related news, upcoming events & festivals in the city, real estate photo gallery and some helpful tips for around the house.
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Old 01-11-2015, 11:08 PM   #14
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January is now up
Subscribers should have received the full package over the weekend.

Subscribe using the link in the first post and have access to twice the stats, real estate related news, upcoming events & festivals in the city, real estate photo gallery and some helpful tips for around the house.

That jump of inventory looks really bad (a lot greater then the other movements), is it really as bad as it looks?
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Old 01-12-2015, 11:19 AM   #15
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For the last month or 2 I have consistently said that it will take a few months before we can really point to any trends that may be related to the fall in oil.

Over the duration of my career, January has always been a pretty slow month where I continue to prepare for the coming year with marketing material, research on new tech, etc. Not the case this year. I have way more buyers and sellers than usual this time around & I should have another 2-3 listings on the market before the end of the month. None of which are related to the fall in oil.

As with the last "recession", if you sell your house and lose 5% compared to what it was worth the year before - you need to buy a new house and you will save 5%.
If prices skyrocket and are 10% higher then chances are you sold your house for 10% more.
If you sell your house now and go rent until prices hit the bottom to get a good deal, factor in your moving costs, rental costs, etc and find out if the 5% you saved on your new purchase was really worth it.

I use 5% as a generic number/ (my prediction) as nobody knows what will happen

The simple answer to your question is that inventory is always high this time of year as it stockpiles from the previous year. It may be even higher this time around as sellers want to sell and get into something new but buyers who are not selling are being a bit more picky in what they want and the timing of when they want to buy.

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Old 02-04-2015, 11:14 AM   #16
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Update coming later today - it is a interesting one to say the least. About a hour to subscribe to access the full report. If not, I will still post some of the basic stats in this thread!
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Old 02-04-2015, 12:29 PM   #17
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Just got it. Wow, soooo much inventory out there. Happy to be on the sidelines right now.
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Old 03-03-2015, 09:46 AM   #18
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Update coming later today - it is a interesting one to say the least. About a hour to subscribe to access the full report. If not, I will still post some of the basic stats in this thread!
How bad is it out there?

I've noticed a ton of places for sale around Lakeview. Why would people be looking to sell right now into a potentially horrible market? Or is it just because the inventory is accumulating and not moving?

Could be a good time to buy in a few months....
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Old 03-03-2015, 10:21 AM   #19
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new listings have dropped off a cliff. Massive rush initially as everyone tried to get ahead of each other for the spring season. But lately I've noticed new listings have dried up relatively speaking. Sales have also dropped as buyers wait on the sidelines
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Old 03-03-2015, 11:52 AM   #20
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new listings have dropped off a cliff. Massive rush initially as everyone tried to get ahead of each other for the spring season. But lately I've noticed new listings have dried up relatively speaking. Sales have also dropped as buyers wait on the sidelines
So I haven't noticed the new listings fall with my excel sheet motioning of MLS, however, I am not a Realtor and could be getting it wrong.

I don't mean to ask a "gotcha question", but is "New Listings dropped off a clift" an observation you have noticed, or actual MLS stats?
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