Fire Brad Treliving

[Erick Estrada]

Originally Posted by Textcritic

It is far easier said than done.

Only the Oilers make it look easy and that's because they have a special level of ineptitude in their organization that simply can't be replicated. The Canucks keep trying and they keep missing out on top 3 picks. It's not easy to tank and win the lottery as there's always another team or two that's eyeing the first pick as well and the lottery odds aren't as favorable as they were. The Leafs did pull off the tank for Matthews but they were pretty fortunate as the Canadiens ended holding 11 potential combinations matching the Leafs with one ball to go so it was basically a coin flip they won on.

[GranteedEV]

Originally Posted by Textcritic

It is far easier said than done.

A GM's job isn't to do what's easy.

Originally Posted by GioforPM

Look North.

They've made bad signings and worse trades. But when you consider the following pieces were never traded for each other:

X-McDavid-Puljujarvi
Hall-Draisaitl-X
Cogliano-Nugent-Hopkins-Eberle
X-Khaira-Gagner

Klefbom-Sekera
Nurse-Bouchard

Talbot
Dubnyk

+

2016 16th overall pick
Kailer Yamamoto

It's hardly an argument against patience with a move away from the treadmill. The Oilers bleed talent for other reasons, but at least they're able to acquire it in the first place. I never called them well-managed anyways, so saying "Look North" is scapegoating a philosophy that was pretty much responsible for the success of the Penguins, Blackhawks, Capitals, and now Leafs/Jets is missing the point.

[Textcritic]

Originally Posted by GranteedEV

A GM's job isn't to do what's easy...

For sure, but I think my point is that more often than not "getting off the treadmill" results in never getting back on. Planning around being terrible enough to draft enough top players is difficult in that the lottery itself can conspire against one's best worst efforts, and when a team is bad enough long enough it seems to quickly spiral out of control.

It is such a delicate juggling act that I don't think success is as simple to achieve by merely the plan to draft high. Maybe the key is to be bad enough but only briefly enough to get in and then out of the Lottery in a hurry.

[Dan403]

Fire this thread

[Jiri Hrdina]

Originally Posted by GranteedEV

A GM's job isn't to do what's easy.



They've made bad signings and worse trades. But when you consider the following pieces were never traded for each other:

X-McDavid-Puljujarvi
Hall-Draisaitl-X
Cogliano-Nugent-Hopkins-Eberle
X-Khaira-Gagner

Klefbom-Sekera
Nurse-Bouchard

Talbot
Dubnyk

+

2016 16th overall pick
Kailer Yamamoto

It's hardly an argument against patience with a move away from the treadmill. The Oilers bleed talent for other reasons, but at least they're able to acquire it in the first place. I never called them well-managed anyways, so saying "Look North" is scapegoating a philosophy that was pretty much responsible for the success of the Penguins, Blackhawks, Capitals, and now Leafs/Jets is missing the point.

How many of those key pieces were acquired with top 10 picks? Top 5 picks? Top 3 picks?
Arguably the thing the Flames haven't done well enough is suck?

[GioforPM]

Originally Posted by GranteedEV

A GM's job isn't to do what's easy.



They've made bad signings and worse trades. But when you consider the following pieces were never traded for each other:

X-McDavid-Puljujarvi
Hall-Draisaitl-X
Cogliano-Nugent-Hopkins-Eberle
X-Khaira-Gagner

Klefbom-Sekera
Nurse-Bouchard

Talbot
Dubnyk

+

2016 16th overall pick
Kailer Yamamoto

It's hardly an argument against patience with a move away from the treadmill. The Oilers bleed talent for other reasons, but at least they're able to acquire it in the first place. I never called them well-managed anyways, so saying "Look North" is scapegoating a philosophy that was pretty much responsible for the success of the Penguins, Blackhawks, Capitals, and now Leafs/Jets is missing the point.

I wouldn't go touting the success of Toronto quite yet. 2 first round exits, and this year they looked pretty bad except for their goalie.

I also don't think the Caps fit your model, given the time from their tank year (03-04 after which they got Ovie) to their Cup win. They had a run of regular season success starting four years after the tank but that was it.

You have also left Buffalo out of your equation. Also Avs, Canucks, etc.

[GioforPM]

Originally Posted by GranteedEV

A GM's job isn't to do what's easy.



They've made bad signings and worse trades. But when you consider the following pieces were never traded for each other:

X-McDavid-Puljujarvi
Hall-Draisaitl-X
Cogliano-Nugent-Hopkins-Eberle
X-Khaira-Gagner

Klefbom-Sekera
Nurse-Bouchard

Talbot
Dubnyk

+

2016 16th overall pick
Kailer Yamamoto

That's not exactly a below-cap team.

[Resolute 14]

Originally Posted by GioforPM

That's not exactly a below-cap team.

It's still not very good either.

[GranteedEV]

Originally Posted by Textcritic

I don't think success is as simple to achieve by merely the plan to draft high.

Neither do I. But it's still the only reliably repeatable way to acquire top flight talent. This isn't the NBA where you have superstars opting out of their contracts to go to whichever team the grass looks greener this year. Of course I'd love to stumble across the next Patrice Bergeron or Evgeny Kuznetsov with a 20th overall pick (assuming Treliving doesn't trade that one too, which he does, because he doesn't seem to value picks outside the top bunch even as much as I do) but that'd be more of a luxury than a dependable plan for team construction. Trades and UFA are unrealistic and even the team that won the President's Trophy last year has a feeling of being on the treadmill long term despite being a pretty good team.

Drafting truly elite talent, especially at forward where prospects are most predictable, is one piece of a team construction puzzle but it's the hardest part because guys like Malkin, Crosby, Ovechkin, Laine, Matthews, McDavid are unobtainium otherwise. As much as I love Gaudreau, Tkachuk, and Monahan they do not inspire nearly the same confidence to even be a Kane, Hossa, and Toews without some serious home goggles and that's the three most high end pieces we have, except for Bennett who continues to be buried and used as a depth winger, whereas a guy like Scheifele was centering E. Kane and Frolik since day one - but that's the chicken-and-egg philosophy of why Sam Bennett sucks that we've chosen to roll with.


Anyways, of course a GM has to be able to do other things than just tank, but if a GM can't see the treadmill, and continues to hope for a Cinderella run just by squeezing into the playoffs as a 7-8 seed, while bleeding draft picks and consistently spending cap space on eventual 4th liners - he just doesn't inspire my confidence.

[GioforPM]

Originally Posted by Resolute 14

It's still not very good either.

It's certainly defensively challenged.

I guess my issue is saying that in a thread suggesting Treliving should be fired someone is saying the Flames should have tanked (when, I'm not sure). Which I guess means Treliving should have built a total loser.

[IamNotKenKing]

Originally Posted by GranteedEV

A GM's job isn't to do what's easy.



They've made bad signings and worse trades. But when you consider the following pieces were never traded for each other:

X-McDavid-Puljujarvi
Hall-Draisaitl-X
Cogliano-Nugent-Hopkins-Eberle
X-Khaira-Gagner

Klefbom-Sekera
Nurse-Bouchard

Talbot
Dubnyk

+

2016 16th overall pick
Kailer Yamamoto

It's hardly an argument against patience with a move away from the treadmill. The Oilers bleed talent for other reasons, but at least they're able to acquire it in the first place. I never called them well-managed anyways, so saying "Look North" is scapegoating a philosophy that was pretty much responsible for the success of the Penguins, Blackhawks, Capitals, and now Leafs/Jets is missing the point.

So if I understand correctly, you are setting out what their team could be, if they kept players they once had, negating the fact that they made several trades which caused them to be in the position to draft or acquire the players they did...

[Hackey]

Originally Posted by GioforPM

Present day defence wasn't a strength. The Flames had Stone/Brodie as a second pairing, were losing Engelland, and Kulak was not a regular. None of the kids were ready to step up yet, including Andersson and they are probably all a couple years away from being any kind of impact players.

Not to mention Stone hadn't signed yet either.

[SuperMatt18]

Originally Posted by IamNotKenKing

So if I understand correctly, you are setting out what their team could be, if they kept players they once had, negating the fact that they made several trades which caused them to be in the position to draft or acquire the players they did...

The way to do this IMO is to look at what they had on the roster / prospects before they hired Chiarelli. That looks like:

X-McDavid-Eberle
Hall-Draisaitl-X
x-Nugent-Hopkins-x
Yakupov-Khaira- x

Klefbom - Petry
Nurse - Schultz

Fasth
Broissoit

Plus:
2015 1st Round and 2nd Round (Barzal)
2016 1st Round (Puljujarvi)
2017 1st Round (Yamamoto)
2018 1st Round (Bouchard)

So really the point here is that the Hall, Eberle, and Reinhart trades were stupid and horrible. And if Chiarelli just was more patient and didn't make those deals or at least got good value back in the deals then the Oilers would be in a much better place.

And even then it's not that patience was needed by Chiarelli because the roster did have holes and if he did nothing they still needed goaltending and a full top pairing of defense. It's that he just needed to get better value on his trades when he did decide to make those moves.

For example if he trades the 1st and 2 2nds for Hamilton instead of Reinhart (which he tried to do). And trades Hall for say Subban instead of Larsson (would have been a better trade for both Edmonton and Montreal). Plus keeps Eberle we wouldn't be preaching that he needed to be patient and would instead be praising his moves.

[Cali Panthers Fan]

Originally Posted by Resolute 14

The problem with the Hamonic deal for me isn't the cost. In isolation, it's alright. The problem is that Treliving took a major asset in that first rounder, and spent it on a position that was already a relative strength: Defence. And he did this, despite knowing that he had a major hole on right wing. A major hole that we still have today.

Originally Posted by GioforPM

Present day defence wasn't a strength. The Flames had Stone/Brodie as a second pairing, were losing Engelland, and Kulak was not a regular. None of the kids were ready to step up yet, including Andersson and they are probably all a couple years away from being any kind of impact players.

Originally Posted by Hackey

Not to mention Stone hadn't signed yet either.

Every time I see this false narrative I'm going to post the organizational depth chart that we had at the time of the Hamonic trade. People really need to stop saying we had a strong defense. We had 3 good players, but it was borderline AHL level in terms of depth.

Giordano-Hamilton
Brodie-Bartkowski
Kulak-Wotherspoon

Prospects that were too young:
Andersson-Kylington
Valimaki

How do you look at that potential lineup and NOT go out and make the Hamonic trade?

[IamNotKenKing]

Originally Posted by SuperMatt18

The way to do this IMO is to look at what they had on the roster / prospects before they hired Chiarelli. That looks like:

X-McDavid-Eberle
Hall-Draisaitl-X
x-Nugent-Hopkins-x
Yakupov-Khaira- x

Klefbom - Petry
Nurse - Schultz

Fasth
Broissoit

Plus:
2015 1st Round and 2nd Round (Barzal)
2016 1st Round (Puljujarvi)
2017 1st Round (Yamamoto)
2018 1st Round (Bouchard)

So really the point here is that the Hall, Eberle, and Reinhart trades were stupid and horrible. And if Chiarelli just was more patient and didn't make those deals or at least got good value back in the deals then the Oilers would be in a much better place.

And even then it's not that patience was needed by Chiarelli because the roster did have holes and if he did nothing they still needed goaltending and a full top pairing of defense. It's that he just needed to get better value on his trades when he did decide to make those moves.

For example if he trades the 1st and 2 2nds for Hamilton instead of Reinhart (which he tried to do). And trades Hall for say Subban instead of Larsson (would have been a better trade for both Edmonton and Montreal). Plus keeps Eberle we wouldn't be preaching that he needed to be patient and would instead be praising his moves.

So the moral of the story:

Edmonton is no good.

[blankall]

Originally Posted by GioforPM

I wouldn't go touting the success of Toronto quite yet. 2 first round exits, and this year they looked pretty bad except for their goalie.

I also don't think the Caps fit your model, given the time from their tank year (03-04 after which they got Ovie) to their Cup win. They had a run of regular season success starting four years after the tank but that was it.

You have also left Buffalo out of your equation. Also Avs, Canucks, etc.

IMO the only thing Toronto has going for them is that they are extremely lucky and drafted a very good player with a #1 overall pick. Without Matthews, the team looks pretty hopeless.

The odds of both getting a #1 overall, and that player being a franchise player are very low. Especially now with the anti-Oiler draft rules.

So anyone stating that we should emulate Edmonton/Toronto is forgetting that there are now rules in place to specifically prevent teams from doing that. So if you do a total tank now, and somehow manage to get in the bottom of the league, you are likely to get a Tkachuk or Monahan level player, not a Matthews or McDavid level player.

[blankall]

Originally Posted by GranteedEV

It's hardly an argument against patience with a move away from the treadmill. The Oilers bleed talent for other reasons, but at least they're able to acquire it in the first place. I never called them well-managed anyways, so saying "Look North" is scapegoating a philosophy that was pretty much responsible for the success of the Penguins, Blackhawks, Capitals, and now Leafs/Jets is missing the point.

The league put into place a new set of draft rules that specifically prevents teams from acquiring talent the way the Oilers did. There's now literally nothing good about emulating their draft model. The best you can hope for is to be lucky and draft a McDavid level talent.

[cross16]

I can get behind the idea that the Flames maybe should have targeted lower picks (ie tanked) i'm just not sure how you look at the GM for that. I'd look higher and wonder if ownership here would have allowed that to happen and my guess would be no.

[Bandwagon Surfer]

Originally Posted by SuperMatt18

The way to do this IMO is to look at what they had on the roster / prospects before they hired Chiarelli. That looks like:

X-McDavid-Eberle
Hall-Draisaitl-X
x-Nugent-Hopkins-x
Yakupov-Khaira- x

Klefbom - Petry
Nurse - Schultz

Fasth
Broissoit

Plus:
2015 1st Round and 2nd Round (Barzal)
2016 1st Round (Puljujarvi)
2017 1st Round (Yamamoto)
2018 1st Round (Bouchard)

So really the point here is that the Hall, Eberle, and Reinhart trades were stupid and horrible. And if Chiarelli just was more patient and didn't make those deals or at least got good value back in the deals then the Oilers would be in a much better place.

And even then it's not that patience was needed by Chiarelli because the roster did have holes and if he did nothing they still needed goaltending and a full top pairing of defense. It's that he just needed to get better value on his trades when he did decide to make those moves.

For example if he trades the 1st and 2 2nds for Hamilton instead of Reinhart (which he tried to do). And trades Hall for say Subban instead of Larsson (would have been a better trade for both Edmonton and Montreal). Plus keeps Eberle we wouldn't be preaching that he needed to be patient and would instead be praising his moves.

I am amused by how bad even a theoretical "using hindsight to avoid bad trades" roster looks. And to think that is with the McDavid lottery win in there. If that was a normal first overall like their others.... woof. That brighten my day, thank you.

[Strange Brew]

Originally Posted by Cali Panthers Fan

Every time I see this false narrative I'm going to post the organizational depth chart that we had at the time of the Hamonic trade. People really need to stop saying we had a strong defense. We had 3 good players, but it was borderline AHL level in terms of depth.

Giordano-Hamilton
Brodie-Bartkowski
Kulak-Wotherspoon

Prospects that were too young:
Andersson-Kylington
Valimaki

How do you look at that potential lineup and NOT go out and make the Hamonic trade?

Don't know how you can be so definitive without knowing what the options were.