Alberta Election Thread - Election Day April 16 2019

[killer_carlson]

This thread is for the election and discussion over the next few weeks (The vote compass thread is a good stand alone thread)

• Election Day is April 16, 2019
• Advance Polls are April 9 - 13
• Electoral Boundary Maps can be found here: https://www.elections.ab.ca/resource...boundary-maps/
• Info on special ballots can be found here. Special ballots are for people who are in the hospital, out of province, in jail or otherwise can't make it to a poll. https://www.elections.ab.ca/current-...ecial-ballots/

Rachel Notley Twitter: https://twitter.com/RachelNotley?ref...Ctwgr%5Eauthor
Jason Kenney Twitter: https://twitter.com/jkenney
Stephen Mandel Twitter: https://twitter.com/SMandel_AB?ref_s...Ctwgr%5Eauthor
Derek Fildebrandt Twitter: https://twitter.com/Dfildebrandt?ref...Ctwgr%5Eauthor
David Khan Twitter: https://twitter.com/Dave_Khan?ref_sr...Ctwgr%5Eauthor

Find your Riding: Global has a good article including links where you can insert your address to find your riding: https://globalnews.ca/news/4811898/a...gs-candidates/

[Ducay]

Map of 2015 Election results below

Spoiler!

*looks at Edmonton*
*barfs*

[Lubicon]

As mentioned in one of the other threads, I am finding this election to be the hardest yet for myself as none of the parties really have any appeal. Or probably more accurately all of the parties have a 'poison pill' that normally would disqualify me from voting for them, leaving me with no viable options. Normally for an election there are issues (single or a few larger ones) and parties typically align themselves heavily one side or the other of my beliefs making the decision pretty simple. This time however they are all unappealing enough that I am very undecided, if that is such a position. Not sure what I will do.

NDP:
philosophically they have always been an immediate 'no' for me due to their economic beliefs. I still feel this way but also know that the current situation in Alberta is largely not of their making. How they have responded to it may be questionable but to hang everything on them is not right in my opinion. Notley as a leader is probably the most statesman-like of them all and she has earned my respect overall. And while I am not an overall fan of their spending I do favor their moving forward on funding for may of our infrastructure projects.

UCP:
this is normally where my vote has gone in the past but this time around there are a number of red flags for me. If the recent actions alleged during the leadership race are true then I have lost most of my respect for Kenney and I question his ethics as a premier should be be elected. I also know better than to think everything will magically change in our economy the day after the elections. Pipelines, oil prices, etc. All the lost jobs will come back etc. Anyone who believes that has been sold a bill of goods. One of my biggest fears is they will slash spending on the infrastructure projects that I feel are critical to both the city and the province. Biggest plus for them is Kenney has the potential to be a huge thorn in the federal government's side right now which I think may be crucial for our country at this juncture.

Alberta Party:
has intrigued me before but some of their policies in the past seemed a little too left wing for me so I had discounted them. Discussions on CP and the Vote Compass thing made me look at them again, on the surface they seem pretty aligned with many of my beliefs. There are still some issues of importance to me that I have not found where they stand (yet) but their appeal looked promising again. Then they announced their policy on childcare yesterday which pushed them back close to the 'no go' territory for me. Until I see more details on this and satisfy myself as to the cost I will have a hard time voting for them.

Liberals, Freedom party etc. are just to fringe for me to consider.

[btimbit]

How about a series of CP polls as well? I'm curious to see how we sit and wether or not it turns into a good indication of how the rest of the province feels

[FlameOn]

Originally Posted by Lubicon

NDP:
philosophically they have always been an immediate 'no' for me due to their economic beliefs. I still feel this way but also know that the current situation in Alberta is largely not of their making. How they have responded to it may be questionable but to hang everything on them is not right in my opinion. Notley as a leader is probably the most statesman-like of them all and she has earned my respect overall. And while I am not an overall fan of their spending I do favor their moving forward on funding for may of our infrastructure projects.

Just some random musings...

I think a lot of people, including myself don't realize how big of a problem our province has with oil prices and how much of this is driven by international policies and foreign politics.

We have a tendency to blame the government for bad economic times regardless of whoever is in power. A coworker sent me this to highlight the issue to me.


The other thing is with spending. On a personal philosophical level, I, like you, struggle with this perception that the NDP spends frivolously because they go over revenue spending, which doesn't align with how I spend money in tough times. But if we look at a the last budget, it was at $54.9B on revenue of $44.9B, that's only a roughly 10% increase, or $5B, over pre oil price crash levels under the PC government in 2014 but also includes big budget capital items like:

• $1B in grants and loans for bitumen upgrading facilities so we can get more money for Alberta oil
• $0.5B for petrochemical facilities for plastics, fiber and electronics facilities so we can use our oil resources differently
• $0.5B for Petrochemical feedstock infrastructure to capture more natural gas for manufacturing facilities.
• $4B increase in healthcare over the 2014 levels to pay for and staff a Calgary cancer centre and hospital in Edmonton and increase hospital beds

That's already $6B right there which covers almost all of the budget increase for the year under the NDP vs. the 2014 PC budget.

To some of the people who are like you not a fan of NDP spending, ask this question to yourself before you vote. I'll will be myself...

Did the NDP make the right decision to spend on these attempts at economic diversification projects for Alberta when they did?
Did the NDP make the right decision to spend for a new hospital and cancer centre when they did?
or should the budget have instead been cut to make up for the revenue shortfall?
What economic impact would budget cuts instead of these projects have had and how would it impact longer term jobs?
What economic impact did the projects have and how does it impact longer term jobs?
Did the NDP overspend in light of the capital items and how would other parties have dealt with the same situation?

https://www.alberta.ca/budget-highlights.aspx
https://open.alberta.ca/dataset/e7a2...ete-volume.pdf

[TheIronMaiden]

Originally Posted by btimbit

How about a series of CP polls as well? I'm curious to see how we sit and wether or not it turns into a good indication of how the rest of the province feels

It would likely be meaningless, based on geographic differences. But I would be interested to know what the actual political division is on this board. There is definitely a loud group of UPC supporters, but noise doesn't equate to size.

[troutman]

Jeremy Wong replaces Ford for UCP in Calgary-Mountain View.

https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/calga...VYxu3olJ8cxcIU

[Fuzz]

Now if only they could replace Kenney that quickly...

[Flames0910]

Posted this in the politics thread, but cross-posting here. Carbon pricing is a contentious issue in the election and I thought this twitter essay offered a good, balanced summary of the NDP's climate plan's effects to date, and what's at stake if the UCP remove carbon pricing.

Some eye opening numbers (and reasonable criticisms) in this Twitter thread:

https://twitter.com/jamesglave/statu...50679134142464
or
https://threadreaderapp.com/thread/1...134142464.html
(for those who hate twitter threads — thanks Fuzz!)

My take: I know conservatives are outraged at the carbon tax, but it's a market-based solution that's just starting to pick up momentum. It's also filling some of the revenue gap from oil and gas royalties so we can invest back into Alberta. Slashing it now wouldn't just send a horrible message to the world, it's bad policy.

Some may wish it had been implemented differently, but that's a sunk cost at this point. Regardless of what you may think about social license, the carbon pricing policy provides stability and predictability for industry. At this point, trying to stuff the genie back into the bottle would be disastrous for our economy.

[rubecube]

I think the UCP are going to win quite handily. I also think they're in a pretty good position to reap some of the gains that the NDP have laid groundwork (e.g. carbon tax). It's a pretty good position for them politically. If nothing improves over the next four years, for the less-informed voter it'll be because "the damn NDP screwed things up so bad that no one could have fixed it in one-term." If things do improve, especially in the next year or so it'll be because "The UCP came in and fixed the NDP's mess."

[Erick Estrada]

Originally Posted by rubecube

I think the UCP are going to win quite handily. I also think they're in a pretty good position to reap some of the gains that the NDP have laid groundwork (e.g. carbon tax). It's a pretty good position for them politically. If nothing improves over the next four years, for the less-informed voter it'll be because "the damn NDP screwed things up so bad that no one could have fixed it in one-term." If things do improve, especially in the next year or so it'll be because "The UCP came in and fixed the NDP's mess."

Really that's the case for any new government that comes in during economic down times as there's nowhere to go but up. I can't find any scenario where the economy is in worse shape in four years providing it's a different party than the NDP running the province. I know some of you put a lot of weigh in the social stuff but a lot of NDP policies are simply not business friendly.

[Bonded]

Originally Posted by rubecube

I think the UCP are going to win quite handily. I also think they're in a pretty good position to reap some of the gains that the NDP have laid groundwork (e.g. carbon tax). It's a pretty good position for them politically. If nothing improves over the next four years, for the less-informed voter it'll be because "the damn NDP screwed things up so bad that no one could have fixed it in one-term." If things do improve, especially in the next year or so it'll be because "The UCP came in and fixed the NDP's mess."

I was actually thinking Kenney might blow himself and the party up but with recent events it will take something outrageous to make them blow up.

[mrkajz44]

I feel like I'm taking crazy pills or something here as I don't understand why the carbon tax should be discussed at all. They can't just "scrap" the carbon tax as the federal carbon tax backstop will then just kick-in, no? The reality is that the carbon tax in Canada is here to stay and to campaign that it'll just suddenly disappear seems misleading.

[Izzle]

Anyone listening to Kenney's presser right now?

- He wants to paint Notley and Trudeau as one and the same
- Looks like he's going to pick a fight with BC and the Federal Liberal party

Looks like he's only going to focus on the economic impact on Alberta, which makes sense as it is the number one issue for many Albertans. Not much with respect to climate, social issues, etc.

[Resolute 14]

Originally Posted by mrkajz44

I feel like I'm taking crazy pills or something here as I don't understand why the carbon tax should be discussed at all. They can't just "scrap" the carbon tax as the federal carbon tax backstop will then just kick-in, no? The reality is that the carbon tax in Canada is here to stay and to campaign that it'll just suddenly disappear seems misleading.

There's already a number of provinces fighting the federal Liberals over that. Also, if the CPC wins the federal election, then things could change.

Beyond that, however, this is just standard politics at play. Notley gave her opponents this bullet by introducing a major new tax without campaigning on it. That is what will allow the UCP to try and essentially make this election a referendum on it. If the tax remains in place at the federal level, then they can just say they did their part, but their hands are tied and go tell Trudeau what you think.

[transplant99]

Originally Posted by Izzle

Anyone listening to Kenney's presser right now?

- He wants to paint Notley and Trudeau as one and the same
- Looks like he's going to pick a fight with BC and the Federal Liberal party

Looks like he's only going to focus on the economic impact on Alberta, which makes sense as it is the number one issue for many Albertans. Not much with respect to climate, social issues, etc.

On pipelines...where do they differ? That's been the call from the UCP since day 1, and it has played out that way predictably.

And honestly he would be foolish to run his campaign on anything other than the economy because it has been an unmitigated disaster in many ways since the NDP started calling the shots.

Im glad he is picking a fight with the BC idiots in charge as well...hell they arent even listening to their own constituents. Horgan needs a wake up call.

The time to play nice and get results is long gone. NDP told us that would work....it only made things worse.

[CaptainCrunch]

https://twitter.com/user/status/1108795107870945282


Even with the current scandal, UCP averages up as does the NDP taking percentages away from the Alberta Party and the Liberal Party

[Resolute 14]

Originally Posted by rubecube

I think the UCP are going to win quite handily. I also think they're in a pretty good position to reap some of the gains that the NDP have laid groundwork (e.g. carbon tax). It's a pretty good position for them politically. If nothing improves over the next four years, for the less-informed voter it'll be because "the damn NDP screwed things up so bad that no one could have fixed it in one-term." If things do improve, especially in the next year or so it'll be because "The UCP came in and fixed the NDP's mess."

On the bolded: That's the exact argument NDP partisans are making on Reddit. Nothing is ever their fault. It's still all the PC's that are to blame.

[Ducay]

Coming up with a program as ridiculous and grotesquely wasteful as Energy Efficiency Alberta should automatically disqualify you from forming government for 20 years.

I'm all for rebates on efficient products, but who in their right mind thought paying contract vendors 100's of dollars for a callout to change a power strip or shower head made sense?

[Ozy_Flame]

This sign vandalism has already begun, and it's ugly. NSFW tags used because of language.

NSFW!

https://twitter.com/user/status/1108772120652242945