Potential Gaudreau trades: Rest of Eastern Conference Post#253

[N26]

This thread is an in-depth look at a possible Gaudreau trade and nothing else. This thread is not for quick suggestions or debate about whether he should be traded or not. In this thread that is taken as a given. I am in the “trade him” camp but I can make a case for keeping him. However not here. This thread is for Gaudreau trades and their follow on ramifications only.

This thread expects you to make a realistic trade that takes into account all the considerations that both GMs will be making. In short this thread has rules and assumptions.

Assumptions:

1. Gaudreau will be traded this offseason, probably before or at the draft.
2. The salary cap will not go up, or will only rise slightly in the next 3 years.

Rules.
You need to consider, and possibly spell out, the implications for both (all?) teams involved of your trade proposal in the areas of:

1. Current and future cap space. Especially two years from now when the receiving team needs to try to re-sign Johnny. If you don’t expect them to try and re-sign him then state this.
2. Number of contract spaces available, Some people imagine a big haul coming to the Flames without considering this
3. The upcoming expansion draft. Getting back several roster players is very tempting but it definitely complicates the protection list
4. Team building. Who will play with who, who plays RW, who kills penalties etc
5. Playoff and Cup windows. For example perhaps New Jersey makes a lot of sense but is this the right time for them to get Johnny? Sure didn’t work out for them this year and Hall and Subban.
6. Prospect advancement. Does your trade make sense in terms of up and coming players like Pelletier, Valimaki, Pettersson, Wolf and Zavogrodniy or are you going to trade for Amontes and Nolans every trade deadline?

Basically I am asking you to make the trade from the perspective of both GMs. The capfriendly Armchair GM is helpful in this. Do the trade from both ends to see how it looks.

https://www.capfriendly.com/armchair-gm

And the final (and important) rule of this thread. I am controlling who you trade with.

I am going to ask for your trades with particular teams and want you to make your best deal. Sometimes it will be one team (ie we are going to start with the obvious, Philadelphia) and sometimes it will be with a group of teams in which you consider the options and submit your best trade.

First call for submissions will be up in a couple of minutes followed shortly by my submission.

[N26]

First trade team Philadelphia Flyers

Facts:

~70 km from family home

Johnny’s childhood favourite team

15 NHL-level players signed for next year (took Cap Friendly number and added Morgan Frost)

2020-21 cap hit $73 387 023 (same as above)

2020-21 cap space $ 8 112 977

Contracts total 38

Significant (played in NHL this year) RFA - Robert Hägg, Phillipe Myers, Nolan Patrick*, Nicholas Aubé-Kubel

Significant UFA - Justin Braun, Brian Elliot, Derek Grant, Nate Thompson, Tyler Pitlick

Other RFA & UFA - https://www.capfriendly.com/teams/flyers

Current $5.0 million+ contracts - Giroux and Voráček ($8.25) Hayes (7.14) van Riemsdyk (7.0) Provorov (6.75), Niskanen (5.75), Konecny (5.5)


Issues/Opinion

Johnny’s probable desired destination and removes the “he won’t resign here” argument

Lots of assets we should be interested in

They have cap issues. We have to take back some significant salary for this to work for Philly. Not just that they have to sign 8 more NHLers but they are looking at a Carter Hart contract next season. I would say absolute minimum $4 mil but probably more..

The Oskar Lindblom and Nolan Patrick “injuries” are very tricky for the Flyers to gauge going forward. Knowing insurance companies they probably can’t get insurance for Lindblom’s recent contract and Patrick’s upcoming one

The playoffs were a slight to significant disappointments for Giroux, Konecny, vanRiemsdyk and Voráček. I would say several of those big contracts, especially JVR’s, look worrisome. Probably not Konecny but he didn't impress.

Pre-trade expansion list is probably: Giroux, Hayes, Couturier, Konecny, Voráček, Laughton, Lindblom, Provorov, Sanheim, Myers, Hart

[N26]

My trade

I think Philly has to move a big contract to make Johnny happen and in this flat cap-constricted league the easiest way is to send a big one back to us in the Gaudreau trade.

I tried to make a trade where the biggest contract we took back was Gostisbehere but I then had to make three follow up trades as Philadelphia GM and none of them were especially palatable. I was forced to add prospect or draft pick sweeteners to make them work and potentially weakened the Flyers in years to come.

I think they will want to move Voráček or vanRiemsdyk, preferably JVR. As Flames GM I don’t really want either of them. Voráček is still very good but the AAV and term are too much/long for me. I really don't want JVR. He may not be as one-dimensional as Johnny but he really doesn’t do nearly enough to earn that cap-hit. Trading Johnny and getting a more expensive LW signed for 3 or 4 years instead of 2 seems like a loss to me.

So what did I do as Calgary GM? I took JVR but I made them pay for it. If the price for Johnny is an established player, a good prospect and a high-ish pick I decided that in order for us to take JVR and his contract the price is now two established players and two good prospects (with additions by Cgy to keep the value close).

Other than JVR, the established player is Scott Laughton who just had a decent season and a good playoff. I think he is what we want Bennett to consistently be; a 0.5+PPG gritty guy who skates well, can play up and down the lines, play special teams and has the type of game that excels in playoff hockey. He is also very capable in the moustache department. I know Philly values him as they protected him in the Vegas expansion draft when many didn’t expect them too. This is a big part of the price I am making them pay to take back a lesser player than Johnny who has a higher cap hit and one year longer left on his contract.

The second part of that price is two prospects rather than one. Morgan Frost and Philippe Myers. Because I recognize that both of these prospects are very good and on the verge of being regulars I know that it is too much to ask for just Johnny even with the pain of having to take JVR. Therefore I am also sending Kylington and a mid-round pick to Philly so that it is more palatable for them. Kylington is a prospect on the verge of full-time NHL status as well but without the high end that Myers probably has. I think Kylington tops out as a third-pairing guy with some powerplay duties whereas Myers is going to be a top 4 who may be excellent.

To Phil- Johnny Gaudreau, Oliver Kylington, 2022 4th rounder

To Cgy- James vanRiemsdyk, Morgan Frost, Scott Laughton, Philippe Myers

Post-Trade

I also try to move JVR again. Maybe to Pittsburgh as he fits in their shortening window. Perhaps as part of a Murray deal that involves us taking the Bjugstad. Hörnqvist or Johnson contract. If I am trading Johnny I want to take a run at Taylor Hall so I have to be careful how much I take back.

Possible Flames 2020-21 lineup

Hall-Monahan-Tkachuk
Mangiapane-Backlund-Lindholm
Laughton-Bennett-Dubé
Lucic-Ryan-Gawdin
Frost-Rieder

Gio-Myers
Hanifin-Andersson
Välimäki-Yelesin
Mackey

Murray
Rittich

I like this lineup but I wasn’t quite able to bring it under the cap after signing Mangiapane, Myers, Gawdin, Rieder, Hall (5x $8.125) and Murray (3x $5.325) I was almost $2 million over after buying out Bjugstad. In order to get under I would have to play hardball in negotiations with Mangiapane (again! poor Bread) and Myers trying to get them to sign lower than expected contracts. I could also save half a million by leaving Frost and Mackey (who may not be ready) in the AHL and signing journeymen at $700 000. Otherwise I would have to look at trading Rittich and finding a $1 to $1.5 million backup. Aaron Dell maybe, or Louis Dominigue. What’s Chad Johnson doing these days?

Futures

Frost and Myers strengthen an iffy prospect pool for the Flames unless they make the transition right away (as I suspect Myers does). Pelletier looks good and Mackey is getting good press. After that there are a lot of maybes. Pettersen, Wolf, Zavogrodniy and Růžička have good buzz this year and perhaps one or two of Gawdin, Phillips, Tuulola, Philp, Lerby, Yelesin or Poolman can become something. I still have very high hopes for Tyler Parsons but...you know...goalies. There’s some time as only Gio, Ryan and to a lesser extent, Backlund and Lucic, are older players

Expansion protection list

I do whatever it takes to get Lucic to waive. Hire his kids as scouts, build a graffiti-proof Serbian church in Vancouver, promise to make a deal with Seattle so that they don’t take him (draft pick, Tuulola maybe). Whatever it takes.

Forwards - Hall, Monahan, Tkachuk, Lindholm, Dubé and 2 of Laughton, Bennett, Mangiapane, Backlund depending on how season 2020-21 unfolds

Defense - Andersson, Hanifin, Myers

Goal- Murray

Exposing Gio breaks my heart a little (Backlund too if that comes to pass) but I think it has to be done. Hopefully he is not taken and one of the exposed forwards is more attractive. By 2021-22 my top 4 is Hanifin-Andersson, Välimäki-Myers anyways with Mackey a possibility too. So it just has to be.

Philadelphia 2020-21 line-up

Giroux-Couturier-Voráček
Gaudreau-Hayes-Konecny (Bill Arnold where are you?)
Lindblom-Patrick-Farabee
Raffl-Grant-AubéKubel
Twarynski-Bunnaman

Provorov-Niskanen
Sanheim-Braun
Hägg-Gostisbehere
Kylington

Hart
Elliot

Got that under the cap no problem with a small decrease for Braun (-$400 000) and minimal or no raises for Patrick, Grant, Hägg and Elliot. They have a lot of work to do to make room for Hart, Johnny and Sanheim re-signings over the next two years but they’ve got a season to start figuring that out.

Futures

Despite giving up two potentially excellent players in Frost and Myers the Flyers have a good looking prospect pool with Rubtsov (Cte), Vorobyev (Cte), Laberge (Cte), Ratcliffe (LW), Noel (Cte), Suskho (RW), M Strome (Cte), Twarynski (LW), Bunnaman (Cte) D Kaše (C/RW), Allison (RW), Zamula (Def), Sandström (G) and Ustimenko (G) all considered good prospects. With an older than average lineup (7 of the above roster will be 32+ next season) spots should be opening up in the near future

Philadelphia Expansion Protection List

Forward - Giroux, Hayes, Gaudreau, Konecny, Couturier, and 2 of Voráček, Patrick, Lindblom and Aubé-Kubel depending on how 2020-21 goes

Defense - Provorov, Sanheim and 1 of Gostisbehere, Braun (unlikely), Hägg or Morin depending on how 2020-21 goes

Goal - Hart

[cral12]

I'm doubtful it comes to pass in this way, but well thought out, realistic scenario!

[dissentowner]

I think our target in a Gaudreau trade should be NJ. Plenty of cap space and it's a team that should not have any worries about him re-signing. We also don't have to take back a bad contract. If I am NJ I am looking at giving up young prospects/depth players, if I am BT I am looking at adding to get Hischier. Gaudreau+Kylington+a prospect is an offer to start with from our side. The Devil's still have future star centre Hughes, an American like Johnny, and they can add another good young C with their draft pick. The Devil's get a jersey boy that puts butts in the stands and sells merch, a good young puck moving D man, and another future piece. The Flames get that elusive #1C in the making.

[Vinny01]

Well thought out Philly trade I just think it is not good for Calgary.

Too many variables at the end make it seem too far fetched they will move JVR for Murray and be able to squeeze those contracts in.

Frost, Myers, Laughton for Gaudreau makes some sense. Not sure why the Flames add Kylington + pick and take back JVR? Complete fleecing from Philly.

[squiggs96]

Originally Posted by dissentowner

I think our target in a Gaudreau trade should be NJ. Plenty of cap space and it's a team that should not have any worries about him re-signing.

It's definitely a team that will have to worry about re-signing him. As he'll be a UFA after the 2021-22 season, he can sign anywhere, and NJ isn't anywhere near his top three teams.

[Vinny01]

Originally Posted by dissentowner

I think our target in a Gaudreau trade should be NJ. Plenty of cap space and it's a team that should not have any worries about him re-signing. We also don't have to take back a bad contract. If I am NJ I am looking at giving up young prospects/depth players, if I am BT I am looking at adding to get Hischier. Gaudreau+Kylington+a prospect is an offer to start with from our side. The Devil's still have future star centre Hughes, an American like Johnny, and they can add another good young C with their draft pick. The Devil's get a jersey boy that puts butts in the stands and sells merch, a good young puck moving D man, and another future piece. The Flames get that elusive #1C in the making.

I agree the Devils are a great target but I don’t see how they trade their top line C who is starting an 8 year deal for Johnny.

With cap space and 3x 1st round picks I think those assets are far more likely what they use as they will want to win now in order to keep Johnny. Trading their top C doesn’t help them do that. If the Devils offered 7th overall+17th overall for Johnny the Flames clear $6.75M in cap space (which the Devils can absorb) to sign Hall and this would also add the top 2 prospects in the organization

Personally I would be a big fan of adding Hischier I just don’t see it as likely.

[bdubbs]

Not going to post a trade but posting to add that this is a well thought out thread idea and look forward to seeing everyone else's trades.

[schteve_d]

Originally Posted by dissentowner

I think our target in a Gaudreau trade should be NJ. Plenty of cap space and it's a team that should not have any worries about him re-signing. We also don't have to take back a bad contract. If I am NJ I am looking at giving up young prospects/depth players, if I am BT I am looking at adding to get Hischier. Gaudreau+Kylington+a prospect is an offer to start with from our side. The Devil's still have future star centre Hughes, an American like Johnny, and they can add another good young C with their draft pick. The Devil's get a jersey boy that puts butts in the stands and sells merch, a good young puck moving D man, and another future piece. The Flames get that elusive #1C in the making.

I flat-out love the sounds of that deal, Hischier would be a dream come true here, but I just don't see NJ doing it.

[calgaryred]

I wouldnt trade with Philly its not whats best for Johnny, its whats best for the Flames.

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[Jiri Hrdina]

Originally Posted by calgaryred

I wouldnt trade with Philly its not whats best for Johnny, its whats best for the Flames.

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Except they are wonder if the better fits for a potential trade given several factors
- Marketable player (though I think this is a small factor)
- Potential desire to compete now, and add players to allow that to happen
- Bevy of the right type of assets the Flames would be interested in
- Opportunity to off-set salary with JVR coming the other way


I do think Myers may be tough to get. Swap him for York and you have something that Philly maybe goes for more easily

[the_only_turek_fan]

Originally Posted by schteve_d

I flat-out love the sounds of that deal, Hischier would be a dream come true here, but I just don't see NJ doing it.

Is Hischier even that good?

[Vinny01]

Originally Posted by Jiri Hrdina

Except they are wonder if the better fits for a potential trade given several factors
- Marketable player (though I think this is a small factor)
- Potential desire to compete now, and add players to allow that to happen
- Bevy of the right type of assets the Flames would be interested in
- Opportunity to off-set salary with JVR coming the other way


I do think Myers may be tough to get. Swap him for York and you have something that Philly maybe goes for more easily

Why would the Flames?

Am I the only one that sees a problem with JVR and Lucic on this team for 3 years making $12.25M?
.

Gio (37) JVR 31, Backlund (31), Lucic (32) eating up 30% of the cap for the next 2 years on older players that are getting worse every season

[Vinny01]

Originally Posted by the_only_turek_fan

Is Hischier even that good?

Some of the articles I have read they love his 2 way game and leadership. I hear he is the next captain I doubt he is available.

[Jiri Hrdina]

Originally Posted by Vinny01

Why would the Flames?

Am I the only one that sees a problem with JVR and Lucic on this team for 3 years making $12.25M?
.

Gio (37) JVR 31, Backlund (31), Lucic (32) eating up 30% of the cap for the next 2 years on older players that are getting worse every season

Well I like York and think in the long-term he may be a better player than Myers.

[devo22]

well-thought out proposal. Personally I don't think Philly moves Frost and Myers in a deal for Johnny unfortunately, but if they do, you take that and run.

[the_only_turek_fan]

Originally Posted by Vinny01

Some of the articles I have read they love his 2 way game and leadership. I hear he is the next captain I doubt he is available.

If they can get him then it could work.

Johnny Gaudreau has 445 career points in 464 games.

That works out a 79 point season on average.

How many players can claim that?

We can't give him away. We need to get an equal player back. Not a package, but a player of equal importance and impact.

[Lanny_McDonald]

Originally Posted by the_only_turek_fan

Is Hischier even that good?

No. But he was a #1 overall, so people get all giddy over that. I don't care what your draft ordinal is, I only care about what you do after you're drafted. Hischier has never impressed me much. He's a Backlund level center IMO. He'll be a complimentary center to Hughes and would be a second or third line center on the Flames.

[Geeoff]

What if we took on Shayne Gostisbehere? I think that would make the return significant and maybe he could rebound? He could get PP time in Calgary