Kings deal for review

[Jiri Hrdina]

Team: Los Angeles Kings

- Saad, Brandon (RW) NHL


Team: Edmonton Oilers

- Blais, Samuel (LW) NHL
- Chmelevski, Sasha (C) AHL
- 2021 4th Round Draft Choice (car)
- 2022 3rd Round Draft Choice (chi)
- 2022 3rd Round Draft Choice (nj)

[SportsJunky]

Based on the Kings last two deals it is clear that the GM is a shrewd trader. Turned two players into a lot of good players, picks and prospects.

Take the training wheels off?

[JonDuke]

Is there any cap involved?

[savardandjokinen]

Originally Posted by JonDuke

Is there any cap involved?

Yes, I’m being sent 2.5. So he gets .25 in space

[I wanna be like Miikka]

I don’t really see any quality asset coming back for a rfa aged top six player with almost all cap being sent. Easy no for me.

[Swayze11]

I am pretty high on Blais and Saad is trending down so I don’t hate it.

[savardandjokinen]

I don’t see why this isn’t fair, I’m not sure if people are familiar with Blais and Chmelefski but they’re both good value young players trending up

Like I did with the Marner deal, what can I do to make this deal fair?

[SportsJunky]

Huh. I guess I was wrong on Blais. I thought he was closer to Saad then he actually is performance wise. I’m not sure I’d still vote Yes on the deal.

[Jiri Hrdina]

Originally Posted by savardandjokinen

I don’t see why this isn’t fair, I’m not sure if people are familiar with Blais and Chmelefski but they’re both good value young players trending up

Like I did with the Marner deal, what can I do to make this deal fair?

Less stuff
Better stuff
There needs to be at least one decent pick or prospect

[simmer2]

Here is my analysis...take it for what it's worth

Blais is 24yrs old and hasn't played a full year. His best season is 13pts in 40gp

Saad is 73 OVR and might be not as strong as a few yrs ago but still puts in 20g consistently. And still RFA age

Highly doubt Blais gets anywhere close to that rating.

Without looking closely, a mid to late 1st + Blais is better to make up for OVR difference now and future.

So either your 1st 22 or 1st (STL) 21' or equivalent prospect. Get rid of 4ths and 3rds.

[savardandjokinen]

What would the leagues consensus be on something like Texier+

If you don’t know Texier, look him up first

He’s got too 6 potential and is signed for 3 years

[TheScorpion]

I like Texier a lot. I would vote "yes" on a deal involving Texier and two thirds.

[Jiri Hrdina]

I agree with Simmer
A first or an equivalent prospect needs to be in there
Texier seems unlikely to be a top 6

[I wanna be like Miikka]

If a first is added I would be good with it. The cap being sent is huge here to.

[savardandjokinen]

https://dobberhockey.com/2019/12/28/...l-entry-draft/

Texier redrafts 17th here. I definitely think he has too 6 potential, he was producing 3rd line numbers at age 20 this season before his injury. LA also stated they were looking for players closer to the NHL, and Texier is closer than that of a late 1st, he’s basically a developed version of it. He plays in Columbus and isn’t a big name for that reason

[Harry Lime]

Sorry, I had to go out for a few hours. I appreciate the feedback here.

So, from the sounds of it, I'm not far off in evaluating the players. Texier + Blais is only slightly better. But where I'm missing is on the money and picks. I haven't really been through a draft, but I'm getting the impression that the jump in draft rounds is pretty significant. Also, 2.5M in cap space has decent value as well.

So as it is, is a no.

But Sasha Chmelevski + Blais +1st would be a yes, if the cap going back was more around 1M. Or Texier + Blais + 1st if the cap going back was 2M.

Basically, 1st has more value than 2 3rds and 1 4th, and cap is significant enough to equal about a 2nd on it's own. What would be an equivalent to a first round pick in subsequent picks? 2 2nds? 2nd and a 3rd?

Am I catching on?

[savardandjokinen]

I’m not going to be trading a 1st in this deal personally

I’m not afraid to trade 1sts at all, but to me Saad is gonna have an expensive 3 year deal next year and I’m gonna have so many people I got to pay in the same situations

If Saad was younger, I’d give up a 1st, but I feel like I’m giving fair value if I were to do something like Texier + Blais + 3rd

[Jiri Hrdina]

A first has way more value than later picks particularly if not lottery protected. Also depends on how far the picks are away...the two thirds are two years away...that impacts value.
To answer your question an unprotected first is generally worth more than two seconds

[CaptainCrunch]

I ran it through the trade calculator to see what it would look like









I don't know, Saad may have dropped but I can't get by that 73 overall rating and he's got good scoring and defensive stats. Blais might get there someday, but I don't know. I would think that maybe LA could get a either better prospect or a consolidated draft pick. One thing I need to add to this calculator is roster values, Blais is probably a NHL'er at this point. Sasha is a prospect, that has value as well.

[Jiri Hrdina]

If I was offering a prospect it would be a guy like Jake Bean
So that’s the approximate value I think he has