Calgary Real Estate predictions?

[Shazam]

Originally Posted by pepper24

That's another variable for sure in a long list of signs towards a potential housing crash. Unemployment is still high.

Um, yeah...

[Winsor_Pilates]

Originally Posted by mykalberta

When I was looking I found one amazing place, placed a bid got an inspection done and within 6 years there were going to have to be cash calls totalling $17K. Seller didnt disclose that.

I asked my realator about that and she said it isnt required but is very very shady done - this was durring the crazy 06/07 year so things where going fast and furious at that time.

It's not likely something the seller would have known. Most strata budgets are done on a year to year basis only, and predicting unknown costs 6 years into the future is very hard/impossible. Your inspection might have been the first time they found out there was a potential issue like that.

They would have only known if it was an identified issue and had been documented in the strata minutes from previous meetings. If that's the case, you would have access to those documents through the seller so they can't hide anything.

The inspector has (should have) abilities to identify these potential issues beyond what the average seller or even Realtor would know. That's why they're there and it sounds like that one did his job well.

[mykalberta]

The building had a 10 year forecast done 4 years previous to this, it was in there. They had recommendations of increasing condo fees steadily for years to reduce the hit of the fee.

[chemgear]

Originally Posted by fotze

Aside from BP, can't see too many job losses on the horizon. Gas is starting to be bullish too. Interest rates may climb but people who over extended will see their salaries/bonus/stock option continue to climb.

Unless there is mass layoffs or interest rates climb to 10+% I have trouble seeing the problem, even with all the inventory data mashing.

Really? From friends and classmates in the oil and gas industry it sounds like employment numbers are fairly stable or "silent layoffs of contract workers." Also not sure if the previously announced Suncor layoffs have already happened or not.

Calgary is still pretty heavy/substantially weighted to gas and at AECO at $4 . . . even the 16 week high isn't saying too much. With what I've read/seen about gas inventories and shall gas coming on stream it's more bearish than bullish. But I could totally be wrong.

Man if rates climb 10%, that 10:1 ratio means mortgage payments literally double on a monthly basis. (I don't really see that happening soon.) But even just a 2% raise in say a year or two would be a 20% jump - not sure many people would be getting enough of raise to keep up at that pace.

[Dan02]

Originally Posted by chemgear

Man if rates climb 10%, that 10:1 ratio means mortgage payments literally double on a monthly basis. (I don't really see that happening soon.) But even just a 2% raise in say a year or two would be a 20% jump - not sure many people would be getting enough of raise to keep up at that pace.

Dunno, everyone with a variable mortgage shoulda budgeted for reasonable long term rates and anyone with a fixed term mortgage coming up for renewal was probably paying more then before anyways. Rates are still ######edly low.

[Shazam]

Originally Posted by chemgear

Man if rates climb 10%, that 10:1 ratio means mortgage payments literally double on a monthly basis. (I don't really see that happening soon.) But even just a 2% raise in say a year or two would be a 20% jump - not sure many people would be getting enough of raise to keep up at that pace.

Are you ever going to understand that not everybody's mortgage is up for renewal next year?

[AFireInside]

Originally Posted by Shazam

Are you ever going to understand that not everybody's mortgage is up for renewal next year?

Not everyone is up for renewal next year, but a large number of people bought in 2006 and 2007 (the peak for sales), with a large number of these signing their mortgage for 5 years, they will be up for renewal starting next year through 2012.

[Shazam]

Originally Posted by AFireInside

Not everyone is up for renewal next year, but a large number of people bought in 2006 and 2007 (the peak for sales), with a large number of these signing their mortgage for 5 years, they will be up for renewal starting next year through 2012.

So you're saying that interest rates are going to shoot up that much? Where the hell are people getting the notion that rates are going to up to 10%? Christ almighty, if that happens, you'd better know how to grow your own food, stockpile the ammo, dig a well and get the solar panels ready, because Armageddon's coming.

Anyhow, people can just re-amortize for another 25 years if they have to.

[Mike Oxlong]

Originally Posted by AFireInside

Not everyone is up for renewal next year, but a large number of people bought in 2006 and 2007 (the peak for sales), with a large number of these signing their mortgage for 5 years, they will be up for renewal starting next year through 2012.

Which will actually be good for them. Rates are far lower right now and likely still will be in a year than they were in 2006 and 2007.

When they renew chances are they will be renewing into a lower rate than they are in now. Which means their monthly mortgage commitment will be lower than it currently is.

[Shazam]

Originally Posted by Mike Oxlong

Which will actually be good for them. Rates are far lower right now and likely still will be in a year than they were in 2006 and 2007.

When they renew chances are they will be renewing into a lower rate than they are in now. Which means their monthly mortgage commitment will be lower than it currently is.

People don't understand that inflation doesn't really seem to be going up.

[macker]

Originally Posted by Shazam

People don't understand that inflation doesn't really seem to be going up.

um....The US government has a technology, called a printing press that allows it to produce as many U.S. dollars as it wishes at essentially no cost. By increasing the number of U.S. dollars in circulation, or even by credibly threatening to do so, the U.S. government can also reduce the value of a dollar in terms of goods and services, which is equivalent to raising the prices in dollars of those goods and services. Eventually we pay for it.

[Shazam]

Originally Posted by macker

um....The US government has a technology, called a printing press that allows it to produce as many U.S. dollars as it wishes at essentially no cost. By increasing the number of U.S. dollars in circulation, or even by credibly threatening to do so, the U.S. government can also reduce the value of a dollar in terms of goods and services, which is equivalent to raising the prices in dollars of those goods and services. Eventually we pay for it.

Oh, okay, I thought demand also had something to do with inflation but I see it's only supply.

[moncton golden flames]

i need an mlx search done, pm me.

[macker]

Originally Posted by Shazam

Oh, okay, I thought demand also had something to do with inflation but I see it's only supply.

I guess you have stopped buying groceries then also Not to mention do you drink coffee http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/3e0c1b88-7...44feabdc0.html These are just little signals but what happens if Bretton Woods II disappears and other countries stop supporting the U.S. debt and the U.S. dollar? Sooner & later.....

[Bill Bumface]

There's going to be so many disappointed people on here when the news clip of Americans taking shopping carts full of cash to the grocery store just to buy a loaf of bread never do hit the airwaves.

[macker]

Originally Posted by hulkrogan

There's going to be so many disappointed people on here when the news clip of Americans taking shopping carts full of cash to the grocery store just to buy a loaf of bread never do hit the airwaves.

Many will claim that they already are http://www.bullsource.com/national-i...yperinflation/

http://www.inflationdata.com/inflation/

Print baby print

[Shazam]

Originally Posted by macker

I guess you have stopped buying groceries then also Not to mention do you drink coffee http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/3e0c1b88-7...44feabdc0.html These are just little signals but what happens if Bretton Woods II disappears and other countries stop supporting the U.S. debt and the U.S. dollar? Sooner & later.....

I thought you were sensible, but you're dangerously close to full whargarbble.

[macker]

Originally Posted by Shazam

I thought you were sensible, but you're dangerously close to full whargarbble.

I know I am but what are you......http://www.answerbag.com/q_view/162016
Sums it up...

[Frank MetaMusil]

Originally Posted by macker

Many will claim that they already are http://www.bullsource.com/national-i...yperinflation/

http://www.inflationdata.com/inflation/

Print baby print

The Bank of Canada's inflation calculator.

http://www.bankofcanada.ca/en/rates/inflation_calc.html

I also found one on the american site:

http://inflationdata.com/Inflation/I...sp#calcresults


What you should be looking at though, is the Average annual rate of inflation.

USA - From 2009 - 2010: 2.63%

Canada - 1.84%

[macker]

Originally Posted by Frank MetaMusil

The Bank of Canada's inflation calculator.

http://www.bankofcanada.ca/en/rates/inflation_calc.html

I also found one on the american site:

http://inflationdata.com/Inflation/I...sp#calcresults


What you should be looking at though, is the Average annual rate of inflation.

USA - 2.24%

Canada - 2.07%

Of course because it is from the Bank of Canada.....for US the Fed Reserve using 2% as a target where they want to keep things so they print to keep things in check. At some point we will see where that takes things. Thats all. Depends on what metrics you are using. I would lock in to any long term rate now. I would listen to Jim Rogers before I would listen to Mark Carney and they both say rates are going higher just to differing degrees.