06-29-2018, 03:20 PM
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#1
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Owner
Join Date: Dec 2001
Location: Calgary
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D. Ryan, the Trade and the WAR Model
Happy long weekend everyone.
A dive into the WAR model with a look at Derek Ryan, the trade and the Flames core before and after the deal.
Comments always welcome
Ryan, the Trade and the WAR Model
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06-29-2018, 03:26 PM
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#2
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Franchise Player
Join Date: Oct 2005
Location: https://homestars.com/companies/2808346-keith-my-furnace-guy
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Learning after much reluctance (cause I’m an old bugger) that stats actually tell a story when you look at them , digest them and accept them as value when making decisions.
Good write up Bingo.
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06-29-2018, 03:28 PM
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#3
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Resident Videologist
Join Date: Mar 2002
Location: Calgary
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Love this analysis! Easily one of the most interesting advanced stats models I've seen, if not the most interesting.
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06-29-2018, 03:35 PM
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#4
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First Line Centre
Join Date: Nov 2010
Location: Sherwood Park, AB
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Really enjoyed the read! With Backlund does WAR account for quality of competition?
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06-29-2018, 04:05 PM
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#5
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Franchise Player
Join Date: Mar 2011
Location: Toronto
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06-29-2018, 04:20 PM
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#6
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Crash and Bang Winger
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How much do you trust the WAR stat? According to it, Hamonic is an offensive black hole and barely replacement level defensively, so if you trust this stat trading for Hamonic was an absolutely terrible decision.
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06-29-2018, 04:30 PM
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#7
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Acerbic Cyberbully
Join Date: Aug 2003
Location: back in Chilliwack
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Karl
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Quote:
Originally Posted by delayedreflex
How much do you trust the WAR stat? According to it, Hamonic is an offensive black hole and barely replacement level defensively, so if you trust this stat trading for Hamonic was an absolutely terrible decision.
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According to the article:
Quote:
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Originally Posted by Bingo
" The leak in the group is Travis Hamonic who is -0.87 War, entirely due to shooting as a negative in his offensive numbers. A look deeper into that statistic shows a lot of defensive defensemen that don’t have a lot of attack game in their arsenal.
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Because of the type of player Hamonic is, this statistic does not appear to be especially useful in evaluating his biggest contribution to the game.
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06-29-2018, 04:30 PM
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#8
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Crash and Bang Winger
Join Date: Jan 2015
Location: Southern Sweden
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Quote:
Originally Posted by delayedreflex
How much do you trust the WAR stat? According to it, Hamonic is an offensive black hole and barely replacement level defensively, so if you trust this stat trading for Hamonic was an absolutely terrible decision.
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Checks out with my eye test, Hamonic is bad and the trade was awful.
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06-29-2018, 04:50 PM
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#9
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Franchise Player
Join Date: Oct 2001
Location: Flames fan in Seattle
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I already like WAR better than Corsi.
__________________
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06-29-2018, 04:52 PM
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#10
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tromboner
Join Date: Mar 2006
Location: where the lattes are
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Getting insecure connection error message in Firefox... had to add www to the URL. This happens to the homepage as well.
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06-29-2018, 05:03 PM
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#11
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Owner
Join Date: Dec 2001
Location: Calgary
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I think the big thing to me was the comparisons ...
Lindholm is +0.81 while Ferland is -.20, that's winning a game by making the swap
Hanifin is +.36 while Hamilton is +.97, that's losing 2/3 of a game by the defenseman swap
Overall though the Flames are up according to this model, and have added a lot of consistency.
Another thing was the values. When a guy's biggest flaws is too many penalties he's a pretty damn good player. Hamilton is clearly that. Backlund had an off year with taking a lot of penalties and is penalized.
Another interesting player is Bennett who gets hammered for taking penalties but is actually pretty good otherwise.
Thought it was interesting to test the team averages as well. Way more aligned with contenders and the standings.
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06-29-2018, 05:10 PM
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#12
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Franchise Player
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Bingo
I think the big thing to me was the comparisons ...
Lindholm is +0.81 while Ferland is -.20, that's winning a game by making the swap
Hanifin is +.36 while Hamilton is +.97, that's losing 2/3 of a game by the defenseman swap
Overall though the Flames are up according to this model, and have added a lot of consistency.
Another thing was the values. When a guy's biggest flaws is too many penalties he's a pretty damn good player. Hamilton is clearly that. Backlund had an off year with taking a lot of penalties and is penalized.
Another interesting player is Bennett who gets hammered for taking penalties but is actually pretty good otherwise.
Thought it was interesting to test the team averages as well. Way more aligned with contenders and the standings.
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I'm assuming these stats don't take into account player contracts and term? So even if the Flames "lose" player for player on WAR, there is still the win on the asset management?
__________________
Calgary Flames, PLEASE GO TO THE NET! AND SHOOT THE PUCK! GENERATING OFFENSE IS NOT DIFFICULT! SKATE HARD, SHOOT HARD, CRASH THE NET HARD!
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06-29-2018, 05:21 PM
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#13
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Not a casual user
Join Date: Mar 2006
Location: A simple man leading a complicated life....
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Bingo should get Francis' old job.
__________________
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06-29-2018, 05:37 PM
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#14
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Owner
Join Date: Dec 2001
Location: Calgary
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Quote:
Originally Posted by 868904
I'm assuming these stats don't take into account player contracts and term? So even if the Flames "lose" player for player on WAR, there is still the win on the asset management?
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Absolutely. This is just impact on the game from the offensive and defensive side of things.
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06-29-2018, 05:46 PM
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#15
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Franchise Player
Join Date: Oct 2006
Location: San Fernando Valley
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Interesting article. That analysis doesn't really put Backlund's contract in a good light.
Last edited by Erick Estrada; 06-29-2018 at 05:48 PM.
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06-29-2018, 05:51 PM
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#16
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Franchise Player
Join Date: Feb 2007
Location: Calgary, AB
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I have a hard time with any model that says Stajan is better than Gaudreau. And I don’t mind Manny’s work, just think it needs a bit more development.
For forwards especially it relies too much on shot data and doesn’t seem to favour playmakers as much.
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06-29-2018, 05:52 PM
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#17
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Owner
Join Date: Dec 2001
Location: Calgary
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Erick Estrada
Interesting article. That analysis doesn't really put Backlund's contract in a good light.
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His numbers aren't good, no.
Take away his penalty issue, which was a one season thing, and he's up to to +.36 and top eight or nine on the team.
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06-29-2018, 05:54 PM
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#18
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Franchise Player
Join Date: Oct 2006
Location: San Fernando Valley
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Bingo
His numbers aren't good, no.
Take away his penalty issue, which was a one season thing, and he's up to to +.36 and top eight or nine on the team.
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Yeah but you would hope he would be at least top 6 or higher given his role as 2nd line center and supposed defensive specialist. Then again this model isn't the be all end all and just more information but interesting nonetheless.
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06-29-2018, 06:37 PM
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#19
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Owner
Join Date: Dec 2001
Location: Calgary
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Erick Estrada
Yeah but you would hope he would be at least top 6 or higher given his role as 2nd line center and supposed defensive specialist. Then again this model isn't the be all end all and just more information but interesting nonetheless.
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Keep in mind WAR stats don't take into account quality of competition which has a huge impact on Backlund's line. (and says a lot about Hamilton and Giordano's pairing)
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06-29-2018, 06:45 PM
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#20
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Franchise Player
Join Date: Oct 2006
Location: San Fernando Valley
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Bingo
Keep in mind WAR stats don't take into account quality of competition which has a huge impact on Backlund's line. (and says a lot about Hamilton and Giordano's pairing)
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Yes it does. Some say it was the best pairing in the league. It will be interesting to see how the Giordano/Brodie pairing fares in comparison.
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