Flames Penalty Killing - backup goaltender effect

[Loyal and True]

After first 20 games, the Flames are rolling along pretty well, but one of the obvious weaknesses appears to be PK. 20 Goals against on 71 PK opportunities. 71.83% and dead last in the league

But Flames are 78.3% with Mike Smith in net (13 GA in 60 opportunities).Mike Smith is in goal almost all the time. 78.3% would be about 22nd in the league with St.Louis/Vegas/Washington/Pittsburgh.

22nd out of 31 teams is not great, but acceptable when the other aspects of your game are rolling along. Obviously still need to address some things defensively.

Notably, Flames took 41 penalties in first 9 games and killed 82.9% of them. Now they have only taken 30 in the last 11 games but let in 13 pp goals (6 of the 13 were on backup goaltenders in 2 games).

Backup goaltender effect
Flames numbers are significantly skewed by the backups. They kill 36% of penalties on those rare occasions when Mike Smith is not in goal. 7 GA in 11 opportunities.

Lack - 5 GA in 7 opportunities
Gillies - 2 GA in 4 opportunities - Detroit 3rd period fiasco with BS spearing calls etc. I would give Gillies a pass here.

7 of our 20 GA killing penalties occurred in a small time frame with relatively modest impact on overall team record (two losses when backup goalie starts).

Mike Smith's save percentage on PK is decent but not great .881 (96 saves on 109 shots). His numbers could pick up a bit as well. But without Smith, Flames could be in huge trouble.

Lack is .583 and Gillies .333 (again give Gillies a pass in this small and brutal sample)

Can Lack improve in PK situations?
or
Should Flames replace him with another backup that can achieve .850 save percentage on PK?

Lack has 1 win this year. On Nov 13 he came in for injured Smith and secured the victory. Lack did not have any shorthanded situations that night.

[FBI]

well this makes me feel a LITTLE bit better about the PK I guess.. Still I think they are just way too passive.

[Flamescuprun2018]

I agree too passive. No pressure on the puck carrier.

I dont remember them being so passive last year. Was Bouma such a factor because otherwise not much of a change in the group?

[Kovaz]

Originally Posted by Loyal and True

Mike Smith's save percentage on PK is decent but not great .881 (96 saves on 109 shots). His numbers could pick up a bit as well. But without Smith, Flames could be in huge trouble.

.881 is actually pretty great on the PK. Last year only 9 goalies had a higher shorthanded save percentage and Gibson led the league with a .907

[Loyal and True]

Originally Posted by Kovaz

.881 is actually pretty great on the PK. Last year only 9 goalies had a higher shorthanded save percentage and Gibson led the league with a .907

You could be right, but as of today there are 18 goalies playing 10+ games with better save percentage on PK

Top Five: Jones .938, Raanta .935, Crawford .931, Quick .931, Rask .920

[foofighter15]

Wouldn't most teams numbers be brought down by their backups?

[Hot_Flatus]

Who cares which goalie is in the net? 78% with Smith is still pathetic for a team with 100 point aspirations. The problem is not the goalie it's the poor positioning by the 4 skaters and complete lack of pressure at the right times.

[Loyal and True]

Originally Posted by Hot_Flatus

Who cares which goalie is in the net? 78% with Smith is still pathetic for a team with 100 point aspirations. The problem is not the goalie it's the poor positioning by the 4 skaters and complete lack of pressure at the right times.

I think it's fair to expect this lineup to be a top 10 PK unit when you have depth on on D and Backlund/Frolik 1st unit PK.

I have no problem saying the skaters should be better at putting pressure on opponents, but...

With Smith in goal, you might expect 83%+ PK. But at this point, 2 bounces over 16 games (Smith played) make the difference between 78% and 82%. The results are within a standard deviation. One bad bounce every 8 games. That could turn around in the next 20 games with a few modest improvements.

It is way different when Smith is not in goal. Flames backups stop 50% of shorthanded shots so far. If your PK successfully holds opponents to 2 shots (or say 1.75 shots average) on a powerplay, you would still get scored on most of the time. We're talking 2 or 3 "bad bounces" every game they (Lack) are in goal. That needs to be corrected if you expect to be a top 10 PK over the season.

It has more to do with goaltending than you might think.

[Loyal and True]

Originally Posted by foofighter15

Wouldn't most teams numbers be brought down by their backups?

Not significantly. There are 56 goalies with .828 or better save percentage on PK.

The 69th goalie is Niemi at .625 and he has played for 3 teams already this year.

Lack and Gillies are last.

Lack .583 in 4 games (2 starts)
Gillies .333 in 1 cleanup game vs Detroit with bogus spearing major etc etc.

[activeStick]

Good analysis and aligns with the mantra that your goalie is your most important penalty killer.

[Loyal and True]

Now, to counter my own point, I acknowledge that overall, we are still 29th in the league in shots allowed per minute on the PK.

We still need to cut down the shots against, regardless of who is in goal.

But the goals allowed by backups have made it look way worse. Which is amazing since they hardly play.