The latest US GAO report (7 Jul 21) sheds some light on F-35 sustainment costs that already has USAF brass worried to the point of stating the costs are unaffordable. If they're worried, what does that mean for Canada and its smaller defence budget? What are the opportunity costs in relation to other key military expenditures that can't be afforded due to the cost of maintaining one particular platform?
From the 1984 book Augustine's Laws, Law XVI reads, "In the year 2054, the entire defense budget will purchase just one aircraft. This aircraft will have to be shared by the Air Force and Navy 3-1/2 days each per week except for leap year, when it will be made available to the Marines for the extra day." Norman Augustine was a former Lockheed CEO and Under Secretary of the Army.
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These things have s way of sorting themselves out, look at this video from when canada bought the f18
I thought that 5 years ago, but here we are, and they just seem to be getting worse. Not everything just magically sorts itself out. Some things turn into boondoggles. We need to be really careful we aren't buying into one.
When the F-35 order was shipped to the UK, they were given the nickname "Valkyries". Personally, I like "Boondoggle" better. Canada is absolutely going to buy these, and it will be a mess that spans decades. Submarines of the Air Canada could call them. I look forward to seeing them parked somewhere.
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I thought that 5 years ago, but here we are, and they just seem to be getting worse. Not everything just magically sorts itself out. Some things turn into boondoggles. We need to be really careful we aren't buying into one.
Still not as bad as the F-16 roll out. Took almost a decade of working kinks out of those, and a loooooooot of crashes.
Flash forward another 2 decades and it's one of the most successful and exported jets in history
Every new fighter jet goes through a lot of problems in its development. The f-16, the F-15, the F-18 all had significant issues. Even non fighter's had major issues, look at the Osphrey development which can be comparable to the F-35 just due to its complexity.
The F-35 has had a really difficult development cycle, but that's to be expected, this is realistically the most complex fighter ever built. From its sensors to avionics, computers, to its weapons package, engines, and Generation 5 aspects it was bound to be really difficult.
I still think for a nation such as Canada, with the concept of a small Air Force where we don't want to be buying new platforms as often, the F-35 offers a ability beyond the other competitors in terms of air and ground dominance, suitability and future up grade paths.
I also think in terms of the expected economic benefits, its reducing price tag for the A model, it will eventually end up being the best long term options and show a ability to stay ahead of the technology curve longer.
The Griphen is a good fighter, or it should be as it hits deployment, but I don't know if its going to be a viable 40 year fighter which is what Canada seems to want.
Just my two cents.
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Code named Checkmate and made by Sukhoi. Its suppossedly a 5th generation single engine fighter build to compete with the F-35, and able to be exported.
Its not being built to replace the 2 engine Su-57 Felon, which even though its in production is still looking at a new engine due to problems with its current one.
The Checkmate is expected to be a 1 engine tactical air and ground attack fighter.
The natural export market for Checkmate is to create a moderate priced stealth 5th generation fighters to sell to countries that can't buy the F-35 due to US State Department restrictions, so look at the Irans, and Syrias and other middle eastern countries to be pitched.
Though the US has pretty much cornered the market on 5th generation export fighters. The South Koreans are looking at the release of their Kf-21 to export. The Chinese built their J-31 for export. The Felon which is more equivalent to the F-22 and is expensive and can be exported as well.
In theory the Russians are emulating the American Air Strategy for the next generation which is a lot of F-35's working in conjunction with F-22 and other strike packages. The Russians could be doing the same with the Felon and the Checkmate.
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Code named Checkmate and made by Sukhoi. Its suppossedly a 5th generation single engine fighter build to compete with the F-35, and able to be exported.
In theory the Russians are emulating the American Air Strategy for the next generation which is a lot of F-35's working in conjunction with F-22 and other strike packages. The Russians could be doing the same with the Felon and the Checkmate.
I don't think this is the case. The Russians have fighters to cover off several areas of operational aviation. For example, Su25 for CAS; Su24 and Su34 for strike; Su30 and Su35 for air superiority and intercept; and MiG31 for long range intercept. The area they lack a solution is a small, light, capable "dogfighter" for frontline aviation that can deal with enemy aircraft while supporting the ground forces. The Russians haven't had a plane for this role since MiG23 and MiG21.
F35 and Su75 ("Checkmate") are in completely different categories and when you look at such parameters as speed, maneuverability, max load or, especially, price, you can see that the Su75 is really in a completely different “punching weight” category. To me, it's more F16 than F35.
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Just like the Mig-29 was cheaper and used in a supplemental role to the Su-27, I see this as similar. Plugs a capability gap with a less expensive solution than just making more Su-57's
In previous world wars the rate of production and development went through the roof. If there is another major conflict, assuming it isn’t quick and isn’t nuclear, how quickly can countries crank out replacement and improved aircraft. It seems like it would be a Herculean and ridiculously expensive proposition.
Maybe my initial assumptions are necessarily incorrect - no one can afford a long conventional war.
Its a way different world just based on things like the pure computer power and coding in planes and exotic materials design etc.
You look at the F6F Hellcat which was the Zero killer, it started design in 1941 and that included a mid development replacement of the engine and was in theatre in 1943 and by the end of the war They had put 13,000 in the air. Again it was a complex fighter for its time but fairly simple to design and build.
The F4U Corsair started its development in 1938, the Navy asked for a production schedule in I think March of 1941 got the schedule back at the start of April 1941 and the first one hit service less then a year later. That means that designed built repurposed factories did all of the parts acquisition and had them in the air in about 3 years.
When you look at the F-18 Congress started looking for a TomCat replacement in 1973 and the first production model joined the fleet in 1980 I think.
If we're talking wartime fighter replacement as long as we're talking production models then replacements should be pretty quick, but because of the complexity I doubt they could hit the speed of production that we saw in WW2.
A F-22 loss in wartime would actually be devastating because they are irreplaceable.
Its not about replacing losses at this point, its more along the lines of kill ratios, inflicting a ton of losses on the other side while losing very few of your own. That's why the F-22 is such a force equalizer and why the US military has pushed the F-35. In terms of replacement the F-35 concept for the American's is brilliant using the same frame across all services makes replacement and production work at a high speed effective manner.
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Last edited by CaptainCrunch; 07-21-2021 at 09:41 PM.
"The federal government has told Boeing that its bid to replace Canada’s aging CF-18s with a new fleet of the American company’s Super Hornet fighter jets did not meets its requirements.
"Three sources from industry and government say the message was delivered Wednesday as the other two companies competing for the $19-billion contract — U.S. defence giant Lockheed Martin and Swedish firm Saab — were told they met the government’s requirements.
"The three sources were all granted anonymity because they were not authorized to discuss these matters publicly."
Still unofficial. Expect an announcement tomorrow (Friday) at around 1600 Ottawa time.
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Last edited by Baron von Kriterium; 11-25-2021 at 05:14 PM.
If anything I'm surprised it took so long after the CSeries thing. Really didn't see a way Canada gives Boeing a $19 billion contract after that unless they came up with a ridiculous offer
Down to Gripen and F-35. Still believe Gripen is the way to go.
I know I don't fly the things or work on em. But smaller seems to fit the bill for Canada. That STOL and baked in Northern capability a big selling point.
Edit: politically Gripen makes sense right now as well. With the Biden administration punching our guts elsewhere economically. Why dump billions into the American economy when they're kicking us in the balls anyways.
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The stage is set for a lawsuit/challenges, which will allow the government to kick the can yet farther down the road to avoid making a decision. Consider: the delayed procurement allows Boeing back into the competition and they win. The Trudeauites can simultaneously claim they initially punished Boeing while, at the same time, procure the fighter they originally wanted.
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Is this crap still going on?
Reminds me of the of the ridiculous helicopter procurement (goes back to Mulroney days) and the stupid sub purchase. Just pick the best option and go with it. I haven't kept up with it, are we still flying 50's Sea Kings?
Are those lemon subs still in service?