2021 NHL Draft

[The Cobra]

Originally Posted by GioforPM

I don't even buy the "top 8 dropoff" narrative, since I've seen a bunch of guys in the top 8 in some projections and not in others.

I've seen the same thing, so I think you are correct. And it still seems to be changing although no one is playing.

I expect that 5 years from now, this draft will be looked upon as being the biggest crap shoot of all the drafts.

So, moving down and collecting additional picks may well be the way to go.

[Sandman]

Originally Posted by Monahammer

Quoting based off some of your more recent profiles Sandman. I got this mock earlier in the year on FC's tool after I had already done some looking into players and had they still had some top quality unranked lol. Looks like we like some of the same players! Shame it won't really be like this!

Yeah, I would be happy with getting Guenther and Chayka alone, never mind the other guys, who all look to be good prospects too. I like Orr and Savage (even though he didn’t show much in the U-18’s), and of course Whynot.

I was going to do a write-up about Colton Dach, but after watching some clips of him-I was really bothered by his skating-short, choppy stride with not much power. I would still take him in the later rounds perhaps.

[Sandman]

Originally Posted by dammage79

I can't shake this feeling Aatu Raty is a Flame.

It wouldn't necessarily be a bad thing-his offensive prowess has been called into question based only on what he's done this year-there still might be something there. He's still got size, speed, skill, and two-way acumen. At worst, you're getting a skilled 3rd line C.

[Sandman]

Originally Posted by dammage79

There's a Russian FW I think could be a sneaky pick up. Ilya Safonov. I remember being pretty impressed with him in the WJC. Big LHS C. 6'4" 200 lbs. Skates pretty good. He is 19, passed over a couple.of drafts but I think he can go mid round this year.

He looked good, and reading this reminded me of another Russian that is in the same boat-Zakhar Bardakov. He's 20, and has been passed over in a couple drafts-6'2"200lbs, hyper-aggressive and physical, plays with a mean streak, very physical, good skater and penalty killer. He never took a shift off, and hit everything that moved. Reminded me a bit of Ferland. Twice named the MHL's "Most Penalized Player". He's known to be a good defensive player, and an agitator. I could see the Flames taking one of these guys with a later pick.

[Sandman]

C Zach Dean, 6'0"176lbs (Gatineau, QMJHL): Cosentino described him like this: "Comparable to Ridly Greig, in that they both come from NHL bloodlines,both play an old-school hard-nosed style of game, and both have undercover skill". Dean's first-step, acceleration, and top speed are all top-notch-helps him win loose pucks, and cause turnovers. He drives play, and can make plays at top speed. Good IQ and awareness-always ahead of the play, and sees the ice well. Very physical, and a bit nasty, does not back down from 50/50 battles, or the greasy areas. Pest who gives maximum effort every night. He was a 4th overall pick in the Q Draft, so the kid has talent.

The drawback? Dean is still trying to develop a defensive game. It is said to not be because of effort, but rather because something doesn't click. It is also said that it's improved a bit over the course of the last few years. THW makes the point that even McDavid struggled in his own end at times in junior, but he's gotten better as he matured.

Last year in Gatineau, he put up 46pts in 57 games, and was named to the Q All-Rookie Team along with L'Heureux and Bolduc. Players with numbers like that usually tear up the league the year after, but Dean only had 20pts in 23 games this year. Not sure why, he doesn't have an abundance of talent around him, but he didn't last year either. I know he's been talked about and hyped since last year for this draft, but he's most often said to be going in the second round this year.

[Sandman]

D Evan Nause, (pronounced Nozz) 6'2"185lbs (Quebec, QMJHL): Played 2019-20 for Sioux Falls in the USHL, putting up 17 points in 44 games-which is good, considering that team wasn't too talented (one of the lowest scoring in the league) and he didn't play top minutes until the last half of the season. He finished as the second leading scorer for D-men on that squad, but his plus 16 was, by far, the highest on the team-an amazing feat, considering how bad the team was defensively. The next highest +/- was 8.

This year, he played for a rebuilding Remparts team, and finished #1 on the squad with 22 points in 32 games, which-like Whynot, puts him in the same stratosphere as guys like Barron and Schneider. Even more impressive is that the next highest scoring D-man was 11 points behind him. You could say that Nause did it all by himself this year. His numbers would be much higher on a different team.

Nause is a great all-around defenseman. All aspects of his skating are said to be elite, except his top speed-although there's plenty of film of him leading the rush, and making zone entries. This past season he averaged at least 2 controlled entries, and 5 successful breakouts per game. He can pinch expertly, and recover with speed. He already is a great skater, the rest will come with maturity, his edges and agility are elite. His passing is elite, having an 85% pass rate. Great IQ and vision. Will need to work on his shot, though.

As good as he is offensively, he is just as adept defensively. He averaged 9 takeaways per game this year. Great stick to break up plays, and very aggressive with his edgy physical play. He wins most of his battles for puck possession, and is fantastic in transition. He's poised to go in the second round, but I wouldn't be surprised if he went in the first. He could be a steal, as his scoring numbers don't tell the whole story.

[bdubbs]

Just wanted to actually thank you, Sandman, for all these write-ups. Getting me hyped up for the draft.

[ForeverFlameFan]

Those write ups sure want me getting more picks in this draft in the later rounds. Throwing darts with your eyes closed it seems.

Unfortunately, I think other GMs/scouts are thinking the same thing. Might see a lot of trade ups and downs in this draft.

[Tkachukwagon]

Originally Posted by bdubbs

Just wanted to actually thank you, Sandman, for all these write-ups. Getting me hyped up for the draft.

Totally agree, thanks Sandman for these write ups.

[Sandman]

C/W Ryder Korczak, 5'10"160Lbs (Moose Jaw, WHL)Originally drafted by the Hitmen, his junior career took off with a trade to MJ for Jett Woo. Last year, in 2019-20, he put up an unbelievable 67 points in 62 games, to lead the Warriors in scoring by an astonishing 29 points! Much of his success is said to be due to playing part of the year with Anaheim first-rounder Brayden Tracey (who was traded after 28 games), but I would say that Tracey benefitted just as much, if not, more-after the trade, Tracey put up only 23pts in 24 games for Victoria, and only 21pts in 22 games this year, after amassing 38 in 28 for MJ. Conversely, Korczak still put up 36pts in 31 games without Tracey in the 6 games to start the season when Tracey was injured, and the 25 after he was traded. Korczak has struggled a bit this season with only 16pts in 17 games-perhaps an injury, as MJ played 24 games, but he should've destroyed this year. MJ finished with a .396 win %, indicating that he didn't have a lot of talent to work with, either. He still maintains an "A" grade on Central Scouting, indicating that they feel he's still a potential top-line player. In the past, he's drawn comparisons to Brayden Point.

Korczak is a fantastic skater, who can make plays at top speed. Even though he has a hard, accurate shot, he prefers to dish. He could have a lot more goals if he used that shot. Despite his size, he protects the puck well, and rarely gets knocked off the puck. Called a "fly in the ointment" for opposing players, he's always in the middle of the action, battling for position and pucks. His playmaking, IQ, vision, and shot are real strengths, but he still must get stronger and learn to shoot more for the next level.

He looks to be a 2nd/3rd rounder, but potentially a steal and a half.

[Nelson]

-Lose in regulation on Thursday - 11th in draft order (including Seattle),
-Lose after regulation - 12th in draft order, and
-Win - 13th in draft order.

[1qqaaz]

Originally Posted by Nelson

-Lose in regulation on Thursday - 11th in draft order (including Seattle),
-Lose after regulation - 12th in draft order, and
-Win - 13th in draft order.

Draft Order:
-Win: pick 12th
-Regulation or OT loss: pick 11th

Lottery Odds:
-Win: 13th best odds
-OT loss: 12th best odds
-Regulation loss: 11th best odds

Everything else is mathematically impossible.

If Vancouver wins, they pick 10th. If they lose in any fashion, they pick 9th. I believe Ottawa has the tie breaker between them.

[Sandman]

C Riley Kidney, 5'11"168lbs (Acadie-Bathurst): Here's an interesting kid, albeit not without his warts. This kid has rocketed up the draft since the start-up after the December Covid shutdown. It's almost been like a tale of two seasons for him. Before the shutdown, with 2nd line minutes (4th amongst forwards at regular strength, and special teams) he put up 13 points (5g, six primary assists) in 15 games. After the start-up, he had 18gp/8g/17a/25pts. In the Q playoffs however, he still leads the league in scoring despite his team being eliminated last round with 2g, and 17 points in 9 games. The next highest scorer on his team has 11 points, and Cole Huckins-who has stolen a lot of the limelight from him this season, only has 5 assists. In addition, Kidney has 12 PIMs-3rd highest in the top 30 scorers in the playoffs.

Kidney has good skating, with great edges and agility. He changes direction very quickly, which helps him run the cycle. Though his skating is considered above average, his stride can be choppy and lacks power-this might be due to his rawness, and will fix itself as he gets bigger and stronger. He's a fantastic playmaker, capable of making something out of nothing, and can find the seams to get incredible passes off. Great IQ with awareness of where the puck is going, and can make plays off the rush. This year, he had the most breakouts per game, and third most zone entries per game (behind L'Heureux and Dean) amongst Q draft eligibles, so he can drive play.His shot needs work, another thing that will get better as he gets stronger. It is said that he takes a lot of low-danger shots as well. As is the case with many young players, and in particular the Q, he needs a lot more urgency in his defensive game, although he has an active stick for disrupting plays. He often gets bullied off the puck, so getting out to the gym more is a big must for him.

Despite the rawness of this kid, the numbers are pretty hard to ignore. He's been floating around the third round lately, but he may just continue his ascension.

[Nelson]

Originally Posted by 1qqaaz

Draft Order:
-Win: pick 12th
-Regulation or OT loss: pick 11th

Lottery Odds:
-Win: 13th best odds
-OT loss: 12th best odds
-Regulation loss: 11th best odds

Everything else is mathematically impossible.

If Vancouver wins, they pick 10th. If they lose in any fashion, they pick 9th. I believe Ottawa has the tie breaker between them.

Sorry, I should’ve said lottery odds not draft order. Would you please explain why only those two draft positions are possible though?

[dino7c]

So 12th pick at worst...should be some quality available

that seems like OMG I can't believe he is still there territory

[albertGQ]

Originally Posted by Nelson

Sorry, I should’ve said lottery odds not draft order. Would you please explain why only those two draft positions are possible though?

Arizona’s pick is forfeited.

[GioforPM]

Does AZ go in the lottery? And if they win the order doesn’t change?

[Samonadreau]

Originally Posted by GioforPM

Does AZ go in the lottery? And if they win the order doesn’t change?

They go in the lottery and if they are picked, then a redraw is made.

[Sandman]

C/W Caedan Bankier, 6'2"192lbs (Kamloops, WHL): Bankier, NOT Bankler as it's spelled on some sites (pronounced Banky-ur). Zary's teammate. Plays C behind Zary, and RW on the PP from what I've seen, as there's not a lot of literature about this kid. 23pts in 22 games. I really like this kid.

First thing you notice about him is his skating-he's good in every aspect. Nice long stride with good bursts of acceleration, and quickness from standstill to loose pucks. Good edges, with agility and balance. Really likes the center of the ice, takes away the middle in the defensive end, and floats in and out of the slot on offence where he likes to shoot. Has a good wrist-shot, and hand-eye co-ordination-jumps on rebounds in front. In the film I watched, he played his off-wing on the PP, and is not afraid to attack the net. He's not the most physical, because his game looks to be more cerebral-uses positioning and a quick stick, but doesn't hesitate to use his size to rub someone out, or separate man from puck. Supports his D down low very well. Passing looks excellent too-finds the seams in the O zone, and in transition. Needs a little work on his faceoffs, which were 48.8%.

Looks to be aiming for the 3rd round, but who doesn't love big centers that can skate?

[TheScorpion]

Raty at 11/12 would be a massive reach, IMO. At this point I wouldn't be surprised if he's on a few do-not-draft lists.