I don't want to derail the thread, but it was the Pastrnak contract that got me thinking about this, so I am going to put it here. The following is a list of highly touted young players that recently signed a big second contract after putting up good numbers. Once they are all up beside each other (okay, above and below in this case), we can see just how blatantly one of those contracts stands out from the others.
<name / years / total pts / best season / contract years / AAV> (all numbers are pre-contract)
Horvat......: 3 / 117 / 52 / 6 / $5.5M
Barkov......: 3 / 119 / 59 / 6 / $5.9M
Forsberg...: 4 / 133 / 64 / 6 / $6M
Scheifele...: 3 / 145 / 61 / 8 / $6.125M
MacKinnon: 3 / 153 / 63 / 7 / $6.375M
Monahan...: 3 / 159 / 63 / 7 / $6.375M
Pastrnak....: 3 / 123 / 70 / 6 / $6.666M
Gaudreau..: 3 / 142 / 78 / 6 / $6.75M
Tarasenko..: 3 / 135 / 73 / 8 / $7.5M
Kuznetsov..: 3 / 123 / 77 / 8 / $7.8M
Draisaitl....: 3 / 137 / /77 / 8 / $8.5M
I bolded the best season numbers because 1) you get paid for putting up big numbers, and 2) note how this number correlates almost perfectly with the eventual AAV. Basically, the AAV equals the season high x $100k for every player.
Gaudreau and Pastrnak's AAVs are a little lower, but their contracts are only 6 years, which evens that out.
For me, two numbers stand out: first Gaudreau has the single best season among any of the players, and his number is well above his AAV, and second, Draisaitl's is well below his AAV. (despite the McDavid effect).
E=NG
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