TheSportster - Top 15 NHL Breakout Players in 2017-18

[Knut]

Originally Posted by Gaskal

Just did a bit of stats digging for Matthew's WOWY on 3M.

This data is a smaller sample size from Jan 2017. But even this is a very, very strong indicator that Matthew is doing a lot to push that line over the top - as much as the other two, if not more!

WOWY Spreadsheet - Matthew Tkachuk

Backlund:
Without Tkachuk: CF% - 44.74
With Tkachuk: CF% - 58.0
Tkachuk w/o Backs: CF% - 54.6

Frolik:
Without Tkachuk: CF% - 49.70
With Tkachuk: CF% - 58.2
Tkachuk w/o Frolik: CF% - 54.0

How big are the Sample sizes for Tkachuk playing away from those guys ? Was it only for the 6 games Tkachuk missed due to injury/Suspension ?

[d_phaneuf]

Originally Posted by Flames Draft Watcher

Hischier and Patrick do not seem like the best bets to break out. Interesting that they pick Keller from ARI and not Domi, Dvorak, etc.

They are right on Tkachuk though, future superstar who I think will take a big step forward next season. Bennett is another good bet. Jankowski is a good dark horse too.

Keller is really highly thought of

ESPN just did their top NHL prospects list he was number 1

[stemit14]

Originally Posted by d_phaneuf

Keller is really highly thought of



ESPN just did their top NHL prospects list he was number 1

He would definitely be my pick for the Calder this coming season. Watching him in international tournaments, he looks super-skilled. Plus he'll get a lot of minutes playing for the coyotes.


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[jemjey]

Originally Posted by Flames Draft Watcher

I think the opposite. I think Tkachuk helped drive the play as much as those two did. And if he's away from them that means he's probably playing with players who have even more offensive skill in Gaudreau, Monahan, Bennett. I'd expect his numbers to go up if he plays with guys who have even more offensive skill than Backlund and Frolik. I think Tkachuk and Bennett could break out together and form a very dangerous 3rd scoring line if that line is tried. And even if he stays on the Frolik/Backs line I'd expect we'll see improvements in his skating and strength and that with improved confidence he'll start to just dominate.

But yeah personally I'd use Tkachuk as an offensive catalyst to get Bennett going. I think they could be a great 1-2 punch on their own line. Then for trios you have
1 - Gaudreau-Monahan
2 - Backlund-Frolik
3 - Tkachuk-Bennett

Make sure Gaudreau gets a powerforward opposite him in Ferland and then almost anybody can slot in with Backlund/Frolik or Tkachuk/Bennett. Versteeg, Brouwer, Jankowski, Foo all could make the case.

Gaudreau-Monahan-Ferland
Frolik-Backlund-Brouwer
Tkachuk-Bennett-Versteeg

OR if Jankowski outshines Bennett at centre then

Gaudreau-Monahan-Ferland
Tkachuk-Jankowski-Versteeg/Brouwer
Bennett-Backlund-Frolik

I think Tkachuk shines in any scenario really. Excellent puck handling, shooting, puck protection, physical play, hockey sense, etc. If the coach uses Backlund's line as a shutdown line then I think our offence is going to be deepest when Gaudreau-Monahan and Tkachuk-Bennett/Janko are the two scoring lines we deploy whenever Backs is off. Of course you could always load up on one big line by sticking Tkachuk with Monahan-Gaudreau but I think I now like the idea of creating three elite lines instead of two.

I think those that are afraid to break up the 3M line are underrating the offensive upside a Tkachuk-Bennett or Tkachuk-Jankowski duo could have. Having three elite lines makes the Flames harder to check and deeper in scoring depth. My argument is that Backs-Frolik is our most elite checking duo and that we should have our 4 most offensively skilled players on two separate other lines away from Backs-Frolik. That way we can have an elite checking line that would be a 2nd line on most teams while also having two other lines that would be considered top two lines. The Flames will be true contenders if:
-Gaudreau-Monahan-Ferland plays like a 1st line
-Tkachuk-Bennett-Versteeg/Brouwer plays like a 1st or 2nd line
-whoever-Backlund-Frolik plays like an elite two-way 2nd line that can shut down the other team's best players while still producing
-we get goaltending

I don't think you break up a line as effective as the 3M line unless something goes awry. Plus Bennett will have Versteeg and Jagr on his wings so the "playing with bums" excuse will be out the door.

[Flames Draft Watcher]

Originally Posted by jemjey

I don't think you break up a line as effective as the 3M line unless something goes awry. Plus Bennett will have Versteeg and Jagr on his wings so the "playing with bums" excuse will be out the door.

But Backlund and Frolik excel with anybody you put them with. It's not breaking something that works, it's reforging a great line (Backs) and a mediocre line (Bennett's) into two great lines. Not sure why people get hung up on splitting the line up. You can always put it back together if they truly excel only with each other. But Gulutzan wouldn't be doing his job if they didn't experiment with other combinations that could lead to greater overall offensive depth.

As I've said before why settle for two great lines because you're scared to discover other combinations that would lead to three great lines? It's not something to be scared of or hesitant about. They'll have all preseason and exhibition to find some combos with chemistry. I'd be pretty disappointed if they never tried Tkachuk-Bennett or Tkachuk-Jankowski.

[djsFlames]

Originally Posted by Gaskal

Just did a bit of stats digging for Matthew's WOWY on 3M.

This data is a smaller sample size from Jan 2017. But even this is a very, very strong indicator that Matthew is doing a lot to push that line over the top - as much as the other two, if not more!

WOWY Spreadsheet - Matthew Tkachuk

Backlund:
Without Tkachuk: CF% - 44.74
With Tkachuk: CF% - 58.0
Tkachuk w/o Backs: CF% - 54.6

Frolik:
Without Tkachuk: CF% - 49.70
With Tkachuk: CF% - 58.2
Tkachuk w/o Frolik: CF% - 54.0

"Wow-whee!"

[Table 5]

Originally Posted by Flames Draft Watcher

As I've said before why settle for two great lines because you're scared to discover other combinations that would lead to three great lines? It's not something to be scared of or hesitant about. They'll have all preseason and exhibition to find some combos with chemistry. I'd be pretty disappointed if they never tried Tkachuk-Bennett or Tkachuk-Jankowski.

I really hope this year the Flames can crystallize their roster as soon as possible in preseason, to allow for some experimentation like this. The always seem to spend too much time giving every borderline player game time, and then spend the first few games of the regular season trying to build chemistry with the actual team (and giving up points in the process).

[Gaskal]

Originally Posted by Hes

How big are the Sample sizes for Tkachuk playing away from those guys ? Was it only for the 6 games Tkachuk missed due to injury/Suspension ?

Looks like Tkachuk had 17 pts with 3M on the season, so I'd say it was the period after they were put together up until Jan 11. Hard to tell exactly just from the graph alone.

[Gaudfather]

Originally Posted by Table 5

I really hope this year the Flames can crystallize their roster as soon as possible in preseason, to allow for some experimentation like this. The always seem to spend too much time giving every borderline player game time, and then spend the first few games of the regular season trying to build chemistry with the actual team (and giving up points in the process).

That's why you want all hands on deck in training camp. So let's get Bennett and then Jagr done and get on with it.

[CorsiHockeyLeague]

Originally Posted by Gaskal

Just did a bit of stats digging for Matthew's WOWY on 3M.

WOWY Spreadsheet - Matthew Tkachuk

How the hell did you get access to this data?? Stats.hockeyanalysis has been down for weeks now.

[Johnny Makarov]

Originally Posted by dissentowner

The Sportster might be the worst publication out there when it comes to hockey. Read some of their other articles and you will see why.

haha. He was the #1 overall pick. Why can't we get these kinds of steals?

Nico Hischier has emerged into an amazing player and is an absolute steal for the Devils.

[Gaskal]

Originally Posted by CorsiHockeyLeague

How the hell did you get access to this data?? Stats.hockeyanalysis has been down for weeks now.

I had dig through Google a bit, but came up with this aptly named HF thread by user TT1. Besides the WOWY stuff I gleaned, there is quite the wealth of advanced stats data on Matthew. Very worth checking out. There's a Vancouver fan in there who went through the 4 stages of grief, but in emoji's.

Matthew Tkachuk's numbers this year are unbelievable

[The Cobra]

Originally Posted by GranteedEV

Also homer vote for Mark Jankowski!

Hard to imagine him "breaking out" in accordance with their criteria when he won't be getting top 6 minutes or PP time, assuming he even makes the team.

When you look at the starting point of a number of these breakout out candidates, Janko will be fortunate to get to their level this year as a rookie.

And that's not meant to be anything negative about him.

[Gaudfather]

Originally Posted by The Cobra

Hard to imagine him "breaking out" in accordance with their criteria when he won't be getting top 6 minutes or PP time, assuming he even makes the team.

When you look at the starting point of a number of these breakout out candidates, Janko will be fortunate to get to their level this year as a rookie.

And that's not meant to be anything negative about him.

Agreed - Jankowski has to first "break into" the lineup, before he can "break out" of anything.