American Politics Thread: The Hunt for Blue November

[JohnnyB]

Well, this is just horrific news. I feel sorry for all the Americans who are going to have worse lives because of this.

[La Flames Fan]

Originally Posted by kootenayflamesfan

https://twitter.com/user/status/1307102455663136769

https://twitter.com/user/status/1307104888963428357

[octothorp]

I could definitely see Biden declaring that if Trump fills the seat, then he will move to expand the supreme court, but if Trump and McConnell respect the precedent set in 2016 and do not fill the seat, he'll keep the numbers where they are.

So the risk for Republicans at that point is take the slim majority in the court they'd already have, and keep it for several more years probably, or call Biden's bluff, and risk Biden winning the election, and expanding the court and handing the Republicans at least 4 and maybe 8 or more years of a minority on the court.

[troutman]

Murkowski has already said the appointment should wait. Romney might feel the same.

[Krovikan]

Originally Posted by octothorp

I could definitely see Biden declaring that if Trump fills the seat, then he will move to expand the supreme court, but if Trump and McConnell respect the precedent set in 2016 and do not fill the seat, he'll keep the numbers where they are.

So the risk for Republicans at that point is take the slim majority in the court they'd already have, and keep it for several more years probably, or call Biden's bluff, and risk Biden winning the election, and expanding the court and handing the Republicans at least 4 and maybe 8 or more years of a minority on the court.

I would imagine it would be easier for the Democrats to impeach some of the Justices then to expand the Supreme Court.

If I was Trump, I wouldn't fill it. I would keep it open, and use it as a motivator for his base to show up to the polls.

Sent from my Pixel 2 XL using Tapatalk

[getbak]

Originally Posted by troutman

Murkowski has already said the appointment should wait. Romney might feel the same.

What do they need? 4 Republican Senators with a backbone?

[afc wimbledon]

Originally Posted by getbak

What do they need? 4 Republican Senators with a backbone?

No just 4 senators in moderate swing states that poll strongly in favour of waiting

[getbak]

Originally Posted by Krovikan

If I was Trump, I wouldn't fill it. I would keep it open, and use it as a motivator for his base to show up to the polls.

Yeah, I was thinking about that. If they ram through a replacement and get a 6-3 right wing majority, could it lead to some of the people who would hold their noses and vote for Trump to stay home on election day (or at least not vote for Trump)?

[octothorp]

Originally Posted by Krovikan

I would imagine it would be easier for the Democrats to impeach some of the Justices then to expand the Supreme Court.

If I was Trump, I wouldn't fill it. I would keep it open, and use it as a motivator for his base to show up to the polls.

Sent from my Pixel 2 XL using Tapatalk

Removing justices via impeachment would require a 2/3 vote in the senate, which the Democrats won't get any time soon. Expanding the Supreme Court requires an act of congress, likely meaning that the filibuster needs to be removed, which is something Biden has already said that he would consider and that Democrats could have the senate numbers to do.

[Sidney Crosby's Hat]

Originally Posted by getbak

Yeah, I was thinking about that. If they ram through a replacement and get a 6-3 right wing majority, could it lead to some of the people who would hold their noses and vote for Trump to stay home on election day (or at least not vote for Trump)?

I was of the camp that was saying he'd potentially use it as a motivator to get President and Senate votes and if he lost, he'd try to ram it through as a lame duck President. But there were a few posts in this thread which got me thinking. That he might need the Supreme Court to contest the election so maybe he does ram it through before Nov. 3.

[wittynickname]

I just want to get my ballot, drop it off for early voting, and hibernate until January.

My heart cannot take this. I have never been more terrified of what the future holds.

[GirlySports]

Originally Posted by octothorp

I could definitely see Biden declaring that if Trump fills the seat, then he will move to expand the supreme court, but if Trump and McConnell respect the precedent set in 2016 and do not fill the seat, he'll keep the numbers where they are.

So the risk for Republicans at that point is take the slim majority in the court they'd already have, and keep it for several more years probably, or call Biden's bluff, and risk Biden winning the election, and expanding the court and handing the Republicans at least 4 and maybe 8 or more years of a minority on the court.

Biden will never expand the Court to 11. He’s an institutionalist who cares way too much about being liked by Republicans. The entire ballgame is preventing confirmation before January (and also winning in November of course).

[Senator Clay Davis]

If someone is rammed through then Biden won't ever get the chance to even consider making it 11 SC Justices. Trump's only hope to stay President is "winning" the election through cheating, so he needs this seat filled for that to happen. It's hilarious to a degree how this works out, because I definitely think RBG dying helps Biden drive out the vote even more, but that it's also a boost to Trump because his path to staying in power has just opened up.

[nfotiu]

It sounds like there are at least 4 very iffy votes so not sure it is a slam dunk.

If Cruz or Cotton are the nominee, do they get to vote for themselves? How does that work?

Trump could go really crazy and put in a neutral/moderate choice. He cares way more about himself winning than he does conservative causes and could be an interesting strategy to bring more states into play.

[driveway]

McConnell has announced a Trump nominee will receive a vote from the Senate, seemingly without regard for if this happens before or after the election:

In the last midterm election before Justice Scalia’s death in 2016, Americans elected a Republican Senate majority because we pledged to check and balance the last days of a lame-duck president’s second term. We kept our promise. Since the 1880s, no Senate has confirmed an opposite-party president’s Supreme Court nominee in a presidential election year.


By contrast, Americans reelected our majority in 2016 and expanded it in 2018 because we pledged to work with President Trump and support his agenda, particularly his outstanding appointments to the federal judiciary. Once again, we will keep our promise.
President Trump’s nominee will receive a vote on the floor of the United States Senate.

The average time from nomination to confirmation is about 70 days. 70 days from today would be the 27th of November.


Source: https://www.republicanleader.senate....bader-ginsburg

[Dogbert]

There was certainly a moment in time during the Nazis’ rise in Germany where the opportunity to stop their assumption of power had passed. Tonight is that moment for Western democracy. Trump and the Republicans will assume power permanently in the next few months and re-mould the United States according to their whims, and there’s nothing anyone can do about it.

And make no mistake - where they go, Canada will follow. Just ask all of Germany’s neighbours how they fared after Hitler took over.

[White Out 403]

Originally Posted by White Out 403

Joe should retract that next podcast

I never listened to him before spotify picked him up.. but now I do every day. Do I listen to hear what he says? #### no. He's a funny guy and someone I'd love to have a beer with. But he's kind of unsophisticated and dull, and not someone who i take seriously. He is a great conversationalist though, and has some amazing guests that I DO want to hear and take seriously. Like Elon and Sam Harris

Joe just posted a pretty awesome retraction on Instagram. Very contrite

[dino7c]

"but Hillary/Biden are almost as bad"

3rd party voters/supporters I hope you are proud of yourselves

[octothorp]

Originally Posted by nfotiu

It sounds like there are at least 4 very iffy votes so not sure it is a slam dunk.

If Cruz or Cotton are the nominee, do they get to vote for themselves? How does that work?

Trump could go really crazy and put in a neutral/moderate choice. He cares way more about himself winning than he does conservative causes and could be an interesting strategy to bring more states into play.

Maybe the play for the Republicans is: bring a nominee to the floor and vote. Let Gardner, Tillis, Romney, Murkowski, Grassley, and especially Collins choose not to vote so they can look like they're principled, maybe giving Gardner, Tillis and Collins enough maverick credibility to win their seats. And Trump and/or those senators lose, then you do a lame-duck vote, and this time Collins, Tillis and Gardner will fall in line with no political reason to hold out anymore.

[opendoor]

Not that anyone could've really predicted Trump, but RBG should have really given more consideration to stepping down during Obama's presidency. At that point she was in her 80s, had served for 20+ years in the Supreme Court, and had already had 2 bouts with different types of cancer. It's harsh, but the writing was pretty clearly on the wall.

This just makes me glad to live in a country where barely anyone cares (or even knows) who nominated the various Supreme Court justices and where there is a mandatory retirement age.