American Politics Thread: The Hunt for Blue November

[Cali Panthers Fan]

Also, looking at a range of 10 IQ points is totally meaningless. It's a gross distortion of the data. Hey let's look down our noses at Mississippi! Their average IQ is about 5-6 points lower than the majority of the country! How stupid they are! But wait! Those dumb yokels in North Dakota have an average IQ of 103 compared to those idiots in California with their 95 average...

Considering how flawed IQ tests are to begin with, this is a pretty meaningless difference between states. Also, smaller states (population) will always skew a little higher in IQ compared to very large states. More data points means more regression to the mean.

[SebC]

Originally Posted by troutman

I doubt IQ scores would vary so much by state. Wouldn't it be closer to a standard deviation across all populations?

Only if you assume that IQ can't be natured and that it doesn't affect people's choice of residence.

Originally Posted by Cali Panthers Fan

Considering how flawed IQ tests are to begin with, this is a pretty meaningless difference between states. Also, smaller states (population) will always skew a little higher in IQ compared to very large states. More data points means more regression to the mean.

Higher, or lower, except that your premise is flawed. If everyone in each state was included in this study, statistical noise would be irrelevant even for small states.

What could be relevant is sample size (rather than state population), but a study based on SAT-IQ correlation surely has enough data to again reach a high degree of precision. Accuracy could still be off due to systematic errors.

I, for one, am not surprised that Massachusetts (home to Harvard, MIT, etc.) and North Dakota (home to the Bakken Formation) would rank highly.

[activeStick]

Originally Posted by PsYcNeT

Trump retweeting doctored videos again

https://twitter.com/user/status/1306084770300997632

People will say this isn't a big deal, but boy, how is a President doing this?

[Looch City]

Originally Posted by activeStick

People will say this isn't a big deal, but boy, how is a President doing this?

Because there is no accountability anymore. He can literally say and tweet whatever the #### he wants. There won't be any repercussions.

I'm actually surprised there aren't any leaked videos of him uttering the n-word left and right.

[nik-]

Originally Posted by activeStick

People will say this isn't a big deal, but boy, how is a President doing this?

Have you been under a rock for the last four years?

[KootenayFlamesFan]

I know why twitter hasn't done it yet, but Trump should have been banned a long time ago. Just another platform for him and his followers to spread misinformation and lies.

[Cecil Terwilliger]

His policies benefit them too much to actually care. Same with FB.

Any publicly traded company that does business anywhere in the world would gladly sell their fellow citizens into slavery if it meant a better quarterly report.

Encouraging a dictator is par for the course if it helps profits today!

[Wormius]

Originally Posted by KootenayFlamesFan

I know why twitter hasn't done it yet, but Trump should have been banned a long time ago. Just another platform for him and his followers to spread misinformation and lies.

I get why they feel somewhat obligated to keep the president on, but the rest of the Trumps? I don’t understand that at all.

[TorqueDog]

Originally Posted by Cecil Terwilliger

His policies behavior benefits them too much to actually care. Same with FB.

Fixed. Trump's inane bullsh-t drives traffic to Twitter. That consumption drives advertising revenues.

To ban Trump would probably slightly increase traffic in the short-term as people flock to Twitter to shout their opinion into the digital abyss, but after the furor dies down, I bet a chunk of their traffic would go with it.

[afc wimbledon]

Facebook has become the home of inane shysty rubbish anyway, I get daily ads for weird items for 60 or a 100 bucks that are clearly worth several thousand bucks, yesterday it was a for a back hoe, advertised for 149.99!!

[troutman]

Rachel Bitecofer has updated her 2020 predictions for September. It is a long piece with detailed appendixes. I will try to highlight some sections when I have time to read it all, and I would like to hear what Iowa, Photon, New Era etc. think about her predictions.

She is very bullish now on a Biden win (99.5%) and the Dems winning the Senate (91.9%). I am somewhat optimistic, but not as enthusiastic as this.

The More Things Change, the More They Stay the Same
That Said, The Introduction of a Revised Negative Partisanship Model Spices Things Up Considerably!

https://www.niskanencenter.org/bitec...tember-update/

And what about the swing states? The refrain of “there’s the popular vote, and then there’s the Electoral College” has become like nails on a chalkboard for this analyst, not only because it is cliché AF, but also because it doesn’t mean what people think it does. Yes, it’s true that we don’t have a national election, we have 50 state elections, and that the presidency is decided by the Electoral College. And, it’s also true that the Democrat’s voter coalitions are not as evenly, or ideally, distributed as the Republican Party’s coalition. But, as was revealed in the 2018 midterms, Democrats did not need to win the popular vote by 11 points to retake the majority of the House of Representatives at just 23 seats. They won 40 seats at just over an 8 point margin. Likewise, there are some misconceptions as to how favorable the Electoral College currently is to the GOP, largely powered by the misunderstanding of exactly how Donald Trump won in 2016, and conversely, how Hillary Clinton lost.

[FlamesAddiction]

Originally Posted by activeStick

People will say this isn't a big deal, but boy, how is a President doing this?

The funniest thing about this is that apparently, some people do not realize it is fake. Like come on, really? Can Trump supporters really be that dumb?

[troutman]

https://www.niskanencenter.org/bitec...tember-update/

Hopefully, you are also noticing how high a probability independent “leaners” have of voting for the candidate of the party they lean towards. Again, most independents are “leaners” and will admit when asked by pollsters that they “lean to the Democrats” or “lean to the Republicans.” These leaners are “closet” partisans– voting like their partisan counterparts and holding issue preferences that are similar to their partisan counterparts. And as you can see, as of June 2020- they are firmly heading to their partisan “homes” in vote choice and have modeled probabilities that are almost as strong as their partisan counterparts.

This suggests then, that many independents are not “persuadable.” For any campaign- using analytics that allows you to sort out the party “leaners” of the opposition party to avoid wasting resources on them (unless you are in a PVI +10 district (for the opposition) you do not need these voters to win and cannot convert them as these data clearly shows. Instead, finding your race’s “pure” independents, latent partisans (already registered partisans with “iffy” turnout), and registered new partisans and focusing your efforts on convincing them to show up is a dominant strategy in most “swing” contests.

Electoral College Predictions:
https://www.270towin.com/maps/niskan...ge-predictions

September 15: Alaska moves from Safe Republican to Toss-up; Arizona and Florida from Leans to Likely Democratic; ME-2 from Toss-up to Likely Republican; Nevada and New Hampshire from Likely to Safe Democratic; South Carolina from Safe to Likely Republican.

[Fuzz]

Originally Posted by FlamesAddiction

The funniest thing about this is that apparently, some people do not realize it is fake. Like come on, really? Can Trump supporters really be that dumb?

Uhm...I hate to break it to you, but. yes. Most certainly.

[White Out 403]

Originally Posted by FlamesAddiction

The funniest thing about this is that apparently, some people do not realize it is fake. Like come on, really? Can Trump supporters really be that dumb?

We live in a province that elected Jason Kenney.

[Wormius]

Originally Posted by White Out 403

We live in a province that elected Jason Kenney.

Technically just his constituents are to blame for that.

[Cecil Terwilliger]

Originally Posted by FlamesAddiction

The funniest thing about this is that apparently, some people do not realize it is fake. Like come on, really? Can Trump supporters really be that dumb?

I thought that when I first watched. It’s so, so fake to the point of almost being obvious satire.

But then I realized Trump supporters will think that’s real, and if they do see a source contradicting it, they’ll assume the mainstream media were the ones who doctored it to protect Biden and his pedo ring.

[CorsiHockeyLeague]

I'm amazed, frankly, that the Trump campaign hasn't started just circulating deepfakes of Biden saying awful things and trying to get them to catch on.

[Scroopy Noopers]

Originally Posted by Cecil Terwilliger

I thought that when I first watched. It’s so, so fake to the point of almost being obvious satire.

But then I realized Trump supporters will think that’s real, and if they do see a source contradicting it, they’ll assume the mainstream media were the ones who doctored it to protect Biden and his pedo ring.

I just watched it, and at least (now?) there is a flag from twitter saying it is manipulated media.

[nfotiu]

Originally Posted by troutman

Rachel Bitecofer has updated her 2020 predictions for September. It is a long piece with detailed appendixes. I will try to highlight some sections when I have time to read it all, and I would like to hear what Iowa, Photon, New Era etc. think about her predictions.

She is very bullish now on a Biden win (99.5%) and the Dems winning the Senate (91.9%). I am somewhat optimistic, but not as enthusiastic as this.

The More Things Change, the More They Stay the Same
That Said, The Introduction of a Revised Negative Partisanship Model Spices Things Up Considerably!

https://www.niskanencenter.org/bitec...tember-update/

I kind of agree that the electoral college advantage to the GOP is not nearly what people make it.

All Biden needs to do is flip 3 states (PA,WI,MI) that have voted Democrat in every other presidential election since 1988, and all voted very blue in 2018. He does that, and Trump has no EC path.

It's a lot more comforting to count on states going back to their regular party choice after falling for false promises for one election.