Edmonton is No Good X: Up and Down Like a Toilet Seat

[Dion]

[stemit14]

Have to wonder how much teams are holding their feet to the fire when they come calling for a goaltender. Assuming Campbell is going the other way in the trade as a salary dump. How much would teams be realistically asking for from Edmonton for a goalie?

For example, a few podcasts/sports talk shows have talked about guys like Jake Allen, McKenzie Blackwood, Juuse Saros or John Gibson. I think any trade where Campbell is going the other way absolutely includes the oilers first round pick. No matter which goalie we are talking about. That’s just the cost for taking on Campbell IMO. After that, you add costs for the quality of the goaltender. And since the oilers are so desperate, it has to be an overpay.

Saros, for example… it’s the 2024 first round pick, the 2025 first round pick, the 2026 first round pick and Dylan Holloway. And by the way… no protection on those picks. Saros is easily the best goalie that you could possibly get in a trade right now. The oilers are desperate and I’m going to make them gamble every last piece of future they have left if they want Saros. Oilers would never pay it but that’s my demand if I was the Preds.

Gibson maybe two first round picks.

I know goalies usually don’t return much in trades but I don’t know if there has ever been so much pressure on a team to get a goalie. Every team in the league knows it.

Keep in mind, I don’t think any goalie can save the oilers. So it would be funny to see them make this desperation move only to fall flat on their faces.

[dissentowner]

Gibson won't waive to go to the Oilers, he wouldn't waive to go to Toronto when they had to turn to acquiring Matt Murray instead. The guy has no interest in playing in Canada.

[trackercowe]

The Oilers would have to send multiple picks to shed Campbell's contract. If the Flames had to move a first rounder to trade Monahan for one year, it would be more for Campbell. Almost four more seasons at five million for a goalie that couldn't even play backup for Stuart Skinner!

I would think the bare minimum is two first rounders... maybe even three, I think for Saros it would need to be 5-6 first round picks if they plan on Nashville taking Campbell off their hands. Jack Campbell is a boat anchor, and it's obvious other teams know that. He is no longer an NHL goalie, and all the other GMs know that. I don't know if he's even an AHL starter these days.

[Reggie Dunlop]

I think the Oilers give up on finding another goalie, recall Campbell and go to Plan B: Sign Phil Kessel in a last-ditch attempt to outscore their way to respectibility.

Oilers are going to Oil.

[Boreal]

The Oilers are mystified right now.

They can’t understand how a team that has an asset that the don’t want will not completely devalue & sewer it to the point where the player has no or a net-negative value.

What is the upside of sending Campbell to the AHL?!?
What was the upside of blaming… Cogliano, Dubnyk, Eberle, Hall, Souray etc. etc. the trading them for minimal value?

Signing Kane out of the NHL’s bargain bin only enabled their inability to understand asset management & addiction to mismanagement and/or good fortune.

Holland is obviously drinking the kool aid now.

Unsurprisingly team aren’t willing to sewer their assets to do the Oilers a favour. I mean outside of Detroit who helped them avoid a buyout of Yamamoto which would have crippled their cap & roster flexibility even further.

[Locke]

Originally Posted by Reggie Dunlop

I think the Oilers give up on finding another goalie, recall Campbell and go to Plan B: Sign Phil Kessel in a last-ditch attempt to outscore their way to respectibility.

Oilers are going to Oil.

Whoa there...lets not get carried away.

Granted...at least for information available Kessel pays for his meals...looking at you Evander...

[Street Pharmacist]

The Oilers had 109 points last year. If they play at exactly that pace for their remaining 65 games, they'll be at 97-98 points which is good enough for playoffs. Their strength of schedule for remaining games is in the lower half of the league for sure, but with this many games remaining that difference is minimal. I don't see them suddenly beginning a team that can play at a 120 point pace.

So you can see where the panic should really set in now. If they lose tonight, that number is 95-96. That'll probably just barely make it. They're a small losing streak away from the season being effectively over.

[Robbob]

Originally Posted by Street Pharmacist

The Oilers had 109 points last year. If they play at exactly that pace for their remaining 65 games, they'll be at 97-98 points which is good enough for playoffs. Their strength of schedule for remaining games is in the lower half of the league for sure, but with this many games remaining that difference is minimal. I don't see them suddenly beginning a team that can play at a 120 point pace.

So you can see where the panic should really set in now. If they lose tonight, that number is 95-96. That'll probably just barely make it. They're a small losing streak away from the season being effectively over.

I do see what you are saying with that team last year. They were 10-10-0 after the first 20 games and then finished the season on a pretty ridiculous 40-13-9 run playing .718. Unlikely they will duplicate that so that snowball is definitely getting bigger with each loss.

[fotze2]

Originally Posted by Reggie Dunlop

I think the Oilers give up on finding another goalie, recall Campbell and go to Plan B: Sign Phil Kessel in a last-ditch attempt to outscore their way to respectibility.

Oilers are going to Oil.

The Value of Outscoring: A Primer

[Erick Estrada]

Originally Posted by Robbob

I do see what you are saying with that team last year. They were 10-10-0 after the first 20 games and then finished the season on a pretty ridiculous 40-13-9 run playing .718. Unlikely they will duplicate that so that snowball is definitely getting bigger with each loss.

A lot of the prognosticators this offseason kind of overlooked the fact that the Oilers record last season was buoyed by a historic powerplay. If we have learned anything over the years it's that a historic season is usually followed by a return the the mean. Clearly the goaltending is worse this season and McDavid hasn't been healthy but the powerplay is also way down and that's a big problem for them and it's hard to imagine they can get back to their 2nd half form from last season without their powerplay humming along at historic levels again.

[CaptainCrunch]

Where the Oilers and Flames might catch a break this year is the weakness of the Western Conference.

The Oilers are 8 points back of the under .500 Kraken for the last Wildcard spot with 3 games in hand, the Flames 2 points back with 2 games in hand.

The other Wildcard team the Blues aren't great at a .558 clip but they're 6-4 in the last 10 games.

I think the Oilers and to an extent Flames can forget about top three in the conference, The Oilers are 14 points back of the Kings, the Flames 8. So the margin of error for the playoffs is major thin and with American Thanksgiving coming up tomorrow and the Oilers more likely to hit the bottom of the league then the Wildcard, they're in huge trouble with no help coming.

I mean sure they can try to get a goalie, but any decent goalie is making more then the Oilers can afford under the Cap unless they trade Campbell, and unless there are major assets that the Oilers can't afford going the other way, its not going to happen.

Look no GM is going to go out of their way to help the Oilers, I can't help but think that most GM's would rather see the Oilers in a death spiral, not because they're good. But because there has to be some resentment over the multiple number 1 picks and the Oilers whining.

At the same time, Holland is a dead man walking he's gone no matter what, either through retirement, or through an earlier exit. And their window which is speculated as this year and next might shrink down to this year as I can't see McDavid and Draisaitl wanting to go through another team restructure by a GM next year if they haven't had major success this year. That might trigger a panic move or two by the Oilers. Let me rephrase that. The Oilers have to win this year, they just do, because the new GM coming in next year has to know what Leon's intentions are and make his decision on him by Jan of next year. Now the one piece of good news (ha ha ha) for the Oilers is that their roster is relatively set for next year, though its a bad roster. With Brown and Broberg and Draisaitl going into their last year. But they don't have any RFA's that are going to super bump the payroll, as Broberg and Holloway being the major ones and Broberg looks like a bust and Holloway has never been an impressive pro.

In other words dear readers, this year is it for this core of the Oilers, they have no cap space, they are staring at a dire year that might make the moving of Draisaitl neccessary next season. They have no real prospect base, they're weak all over the ice, and this coach is probably going to define the term temporary as the Oilers look like they did under woodchuk.

[Winsor_Pilates]

They're done.
Even if they acquired a top goalie, the assets needed to do that are too much for their limited depth.
There's too many holes in their entire roster, they won't find an easy fix mid season.

Realistically, they need a good GM and multiple "transfer windows" to fix it.
They also need a good coaching staff & some young talent to play big roles.
There's no way they're getting all of these things anytime soon.

[Textcritic]

Originally Posted by Erick Estrada

A lot of the prognosticators this offseason kind of overlooked the fact that the Oilers record last season was buoyed by a historic powerplay. If we have learned anything over the years it's that a historic season is usually followed by a return the the mean. Clearly the goaltending is worse this season and McDavid hasn't been healthy but the powerplay is also way down and that's a big problem for them and it's hard to imagine they can get back to their 2nd half form from last season without their powerplay humming along at historic levels again.

Last year was their year.

Three players scoring over 100 points each, with their top-scorer flirting with 2.0 pts/GP for the first time since 1996. Six of their top-seven scorers registered career seasons, and they were playing in front of a goalie who caught lightning in a bottle, all to go along with the first power play to crest 30% in over 40 years.

They needed all that just to make the playoffs and to win a round. The Oilers are never going to see a season like last year ever again. THAT was the high-water mark.

[Ironhorse]

AI generated image of the Oilers arena.

[undercoverbrother]

Originally Posted by Ironhorse

AI generated image of the Oilers arena.

NSFW!

Spoiler that #### man

[Enoch Root]

but why?

[Sofa GM]

Originally Posted by Textcritic

Last year was their year.

Three players scoring over 100 points each, with their top-scorer flirting with 2.0 pts/GP for the first time since 1996. Six of their top-seven scorers registered career seasons, and they were playing in front of a goalie who caught lightning in a bottle, all to go along with the first power play to crest 30% in over 40 years.

They needed all that just to make the playoffs and to win a round. The Oilers are never going to see a season like last year ever again. THAT was the high-water mark.

This 100%, they are done. McMinus and DraiSelke in slumps, Nurse and Bouchard battling for the 7th dman spot, Ekholm being a shell of himself and goaltending which isn't overachieving. It is hilarious that no one in that tire fire is considering that possibly, just possibly, it might be that they give up WAY too many high danger chances.

That team needs a rebuild of the culture. You never win with players like Draisaitl and McDavid. They talk the talk, but don't walk the walk. Horribly selfish players not interested in playing winning style hockey.

If the Oilers are out of it this year, which they are, they need to look at selling Draisaitl. A good contract for one more year could land a ransom, especially if it's a sign and trade. If they miss the playoffs this year, there is zero chance Draisaitl resigns in Edmonton.

[Winsor_Pilates]

Clearly AI isn't that advanced yet; should have been a toilet

[Southside403]

Oilers have a tough schedule perfect for failure if they lose 3 out next 6 finished and we'll deserving for cocky fanbase