Official (Alberta) Oil Discussion Thread

[burn_this_city]

Originally Posted by IliketoPuck

Any word on what Iran is planning? That's the other key.

They were originally exempt from the Algiers agreement. Chances are they are maxed out on production at the moment anyhow. Doubt we see a cut, but maybe a cap on their levels.

[Snuffleupagus]

I'm not an oil guy but this can't be great news for Alberta oil.

Largest oil deposit ever found in U.S. discovered in Texas
http://www.usatoday.com/story/money/...exas/94013292/

[burn_this_city]

Originally Posted by Snuffleupagus

I'm not an oil guy but this can't be great news for Alberta oil.

Largest oil deposit ever found in U.S. discovered in Texas
http://www.usatoday.com/story/money/...exas/94013292/

Those articles are mostly hype. Some areas might be economical right now, but I'd be surprised if the majority would be developed at $50. Plus our heavy doesn't compete with shale oil due to the make up of the refineries in the US. They built a lot of coking capacity to process heavy oil in the last decade expecting that the majority of feedstock going forward would be heavy oil.

[polak]

It still strengthens the price cap at around $50-60 right?

Thats still a blow to Calgary. I really doubt this city will avoid serious decline with a decade or more of $50-$60 oil.

[Azure]

I would think it just gives the US more strength to get away from ME oil.

[burn_this_city]

Originally Posted by polak

It still strengthens the price cap at around $50-60 right?

Thats still a blow to Calgary. I really doubt this city will avoid serious decline with a decade or more of $50-$60 oil.

Production in that area is forecast to grow by 300,000 bpd next year. They'll need more than $50-60 to significantly ramp up production.

[GGG]

Originally Posted by polak

It still strengthens the price cap at around $50-60 right?

Thats still a blow to Calgary. I really doubt this city will avoid serious decline with a decade or more of $50-$60 oil.

I disagree,

You will see a slow recovery to a new steady state at those prices. No Mega projects to drive a boom but steady measured sustaining production and debottlenecking and small expansion of existing facilities.

So if you consider sometime this year the bottom we will improve from here over the next decade. The big thing is business, personal and government spending need to be brought in line with the rest of the world instead of the magic bubble we lived in for the last 10 years.

[polak]

Originally Posted by GGG

I disagree,

You will see a slow recovery to a new steady state at those prices. No Mega projects to drive a boom but steady measured sustaining production and debottlenecking and small expansion of existing facilities.

So if you consider sometime this year the bottom we will improve from here over the next decade. The big thing is business, personal and government spending need to be brought in line with the rest of the world instead of the magic bubble we lived in for the last 10 years.

Wouldn't that include a substantial decline for the city? Lots of Calgarians will not be able to find work under those conditions not just in Oil and Gas but the service industries, real estate (especially commercial) and construction will all be in decline.

Surely this city cannot sustain the population that moved here in the last 10 years with what will be left over? That's a significant chunk of the population. We had just crossed 1 million people 10 years ago.

[GGG]

Originally Posted by polak

Wouldn't that include a substantial decline for the city? Lots of Calgarians will not be able to find work under those conditions not just in Oil and Gas but the service industries, real estate (especially commercial) and construction will all be in decline.

Surely this city cannot sustain the population that moved here in the last 10 years with what will be left over?

I think a lot of the affected population has left already so I don't see significant further decline. Companies will be rehiring over the next year slowly as sustaining production is developed. Our demographics are positive (young and child bearing). Commercial real estate and the associated construction jobs will be gone but even in the past year Calgary Metro grew negligibly so residential while slower will still exist.

If the question is will Calgary grow and be more vibrant going forward over the next decade using today as the bench mark the answer in my opinion is absolutely yes.

But if you use 2014 as the bench mark and say when will Calgary recover to that level of disposable income I would say never. Even if its terms of total economic activity we probably have 5 years to build back to that point spread across a lot more people.

[Reaper]

Originally Posted by Senator Clay Davis

But when he makes sure they take all the oil, won't that make our oil kind of irrelevant?

Yeah but war takes oil so they'll use ours until they get theirs.

[polak]

Originally Posted by GGG

I think a lot of the affected population has left already so I don't see significant further decline. Companies will be rehiring over the next year slowly as sustaining production is developed. Our demographics are positive (young and child bearing). Commercial real estate and the associated construction jobs will be gone but even in the past year Calgary Metro grew negligibly so residential while slower will still exist.

If the question is will Calgary grow and be more vibrant going forward over the next decade using today as the bench mark the answer in my opinion is absolutely yes.

But if you use 2014 as the bench mark and say when will Calgary recover to that level of disposable income I would say never. Even if its terms of total economic activity we probably have 5 years to build back to that point spread across a lot more people.

I prefer your take over mine.

[Violator]

Northern gateway decision is supposed to drop today
Have a strange weird feeling it's not gonna get approved.

[Locke]

Originally Posted by Violator

Northern gateway decision is supposed to drop today
Have a strange weird feeling it's not gonna get approved.

"More bribes research is needed..."

[Slava]

I don't think it will be approved either, and I am sure we're going to hear about how the Liberals hate Alberta and things like that. Truth is that NG has all kinds of problems though, and if it was approved it would be challenged in court for sure. I would spend my political capital elsewhere if I were in government, but that's just me.

[puckedoff]

Slava why do you hate Alberta

[Violator]

Originally Posted by Slava

I don't think it will be approved either, and I am sure we're going to hear about how the Liberals hate Alberta and things like that. Truth is that NG has all kinds of problems though, and if it was approved it would be challenged in court for sure. I would spend my political capital elsewhere if I were in government, but that's just me.

It was a ####ty plan to begin with should have went to prince Rupert instead.

[Violator]

I guess booth will be announced tomorrow

[Frequitude]

Why is Line 3 even being grouped into the same conversation with Gateway. It's a freakin pipe replacement not a new greenfield pipeline. Sure it will double its capacity but still.

[Fuzz]

So they can approve Line 3 and reject Northern gateway, thereby keeping everybody happy and mad at the same time.

[Frequitude]

Originally Posted by Fuzz

So they can approve Line 3 and reject Northern gateway, thereby keeping everybody happy and mad at the same time.

Totally expecting this. Heck, hoping for it. I'll take the extra 760kbpd of pipeline capacity and upgrade to carry dilbit.