True...but...and I'm just spitballing here, but Russia's Armed Forces are decimated for a Generation. They lost the Mystique of being the 'Big Red Bear' and they'll have no experienced leadership for decades or experienced soldiers.
Not to mention that the inherent corruption within their systems probably isnt going anywhere so their armed forces arent likely to get any better, especially considering that they're going to be in no economic position to re-arm, in addition to the fact that it also gives Ukraine the opportunity to be ready and further by the time Russia ever has the opportunity to be the aggressor again Putin will be dead and the specter of the USSR should be gone.
This was a surprise and the Ukrainians are dummying them, if they were armed, supplied and prepared? No chance, because everything I said about the Russians? The opposite is true for Ukraine. They're going to have a Generation of experienced and battle-hardened soldiers and leadership. This is Russia's shot.
Their capabilities would be no more diminished than they are now and they're still being aggressive. The obvious issue is Putin will keep poking at Ukraine whenever his stick is pointy enough to do damage and he won't stop. Whether or not he'll likely be successful seems not to matter. I'm sure the Ukrainians are not eager to have another war, even if it's winnable.
I can't understand the desire to keep the war going. Any continuation means more death of innocent people caught in the wrong place at the wrong time, full stop. I look at it from the perspective of if I had family there - stop the war.
Well unfortunately, while I can see your point, as has been mentioned many times throughout this thread, there is a 'long game' that has to be considered here as well.
We all want this war to stop. But not at the expense of essentially just setting Russia up to just do it again 10-20 years down the road.
I think the 'Powers that Be' arent just looking at ending this War, but also have an eye to preventing the almost-inevitable future one.
Western/NATO powers and Ukraine overall just want stability and peace in the region.
So unfortunately its just not as simple as stopping 'this' War because as we've seen, the Russians, given the opportunity, will almost certainly try again. So they're swallowing some very serious short-term pain in exchange for hopefully some exceptionally long-term gain.
And yes, I think we all understand that the Ukrainian people are the ones doing most of the swallowing of that pain. And as much as that really sucks, they've proven to be a tough bunch of bastards, hopefully for the prospect of long-term peace they can take it just a little longer.
I dont like it any more than anyone else.
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Their capabilities would be no more diminished than they are now and they're still being aggressive. The obvious issue is Putin will keep poking at Ukraine whenever his stick is pointy enough to do damage and he won't stop. Whether or not he'll likely be successful seems not to matter. I'm sure the Ukrainians are not eager to have another war, even if it's winnable.
Which is essentially exactly my point. It isnt about 'this' fight, its about ending the conflict so there isnt a 'next' fight.
This is Putin's shot. If they made peace tomorrow and gave Russia everything they wanted, they're still going to try again although Putin will probably be dead.
And I do think their capabilities would be heavily diminished. They already are, and we've seen how far lacking their capabilities and materiel are in comparison with NATO.
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I can't understand the desire to keep the war going. Any continuation means more death of innocent people caught in the wrong place at the wrong time, full stop. I look at it from the perspective of if I had family there - stop the war.
A negotiated solution isn't a discontinuation of the war. It's merely a delay. Ukrainians overwhelmingly support the continuation because they want this to stop. It's been going on for 8 years now with multiple promises to stop. The only difference this time is they have the advantage. If your family was in an occupied are where you know they'll be tortured would you be willing to sign them over to Russia?
Which is essentially exactly my point. It isnt about 'this' fight, its about ending the conflict so there isnt a 'next' fight.
This is Putin's shot. If they made peace tomorrow and gave Russia everything they wanted, they're still going to try again although Putin will probably be dead.
And I do think their capabilities would be heavily diminished. They already are, and we've seen how far lacking their capabilities and materiel are in comparison with NATO.
But my point is that their capabilities won't be any more diminished than they are right now and they aren't stopping. They'll continue to kill and torture Ukrainians and try to invade anyways. Negotiating anything right now isn't ending the conflict. What makes you think having a $####y army will stop Putin from trying again? It won't. It hasn't so far. This has been going on for 8 years with Russia breaking their word twice. Why is now different?
But my point is that their capabilities won't be any more diminished than they are right now and they aren't stopping. They'll continue to kill and torture Ukrainians and try to invade anyways. Negotiating anything right now isn't ending the conflict. What makes you think having a $####y army will stop Putin from trying again? It won't. It hasn't so far. This has been going on for 8 years with Russia breaking their word twice. Why is now different?
I think we're discussing at cross purposes here because overall I think we're mostly saying the same thing and agreeing with each other just in different ways.
The War is continuing because its not about 'this' War, its about making sure there isnt another one.
All I said about Putin is that he probably isnt going to get another shot because he's ancient and will probably die soon.
This is Putin's 'Window' he either takes it...or he likely gets shoved out of it.
Quote:
A negotiated solution isn't a discontinuation of the war. It's merely a delay. Ukrainians overwhelmingly support the continuation because they want this to stop. It's been going on for 8 years now with multiple promises to stop. The only difference this time is they have the advantage. If your family was in an occupied are where you know they'll be tortured would you be willing to sign them over to Russia?
This. Exactly this. We are saying essentially the same thing.
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I think we're discussing at cross purposes here because overall I think we're mostly saying the same thing and agreeing with each other just in different ways.
The War is continuing because its not about 'this' War, its about making sure there isnt another one.
All I said about Putin is that he probably isnt going to get another shot because he's ancient and will probably die soon.
This is Putin's 'Window' he either takes it...or he likely gets shoved out of it.
This. Exactly this. We are saying essentially the same thing.
Sorry, I thought you were suggesting a negotiated solution would be fine because they won't be able to fight again. I keep seeing that opinion in editorials and twitter threads and I just don't see how you can get there with the facts on the ground
Sorry, I thought you were suggesting a negotiated solution would be fine because they won't be able to fight again. I keep seeing that opinion in editorials and twitter threads and I just don't see how you can get there with the facts on the ground
No. No, no, no.
I was suggesting that not going for a negotiated solution is the only option right now.
Dont end 'this War' without making sure you've eliminated the probability of the next one.
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For me, nothing is guaranteed. This includes Russia continuing to take more territory after an agreement is reached or even that NATO doesn't expand its members further, leading to Russia feeling threatened again and deciding to invade another sovergin country. So, for me, they could keep the war going to prevent what they speculate might happen, and while doing this, "accept" that another 100k+ Ukrainian soliders will die, or end it, get back to normalcy and maybe Putin dies and his successor doesn't do something similar.
Last edited by activeStick; 12-04-2022 at 01:18 PM.
The behind the scenes aspect to this entire war is just amazing in so many sad ways for me but with 2023 around the corner, we are going to have to be prepared for some very interesting things to unfold.
Like it or not, Europe is in a significant energy crisis and they have been flip flopping on how best to deal with it. The entire world has had it's inflation and energy costs skyrocket as a result of this war! We went from NO MORE RUSSIAN OIL to a price cap of $60 a barrel for it and playing games with insurance carriers and tanker's mixing oil to avoid sanctions. We got some EU countries wanting to not piss off Putin and their electorate and other's who want to go for his jugular economically and end this bull **** fast.
There is enough commentary from US officials on being careful as Russia still has significant military power at it's disposal and I am not talking about nukes either.
Putin may be willing to feed conscripts into the war machine but perhaps another play would be to force US and Europe's hand in other ways outside of energy. Enough people are getting fatigue in this war that something will have to give next year. Does Putin get a lot more aggressive and than proceed with dropping mega bombs on major towns and centers? What if central Kyiv almost doesn't exist anymore ? What if in a week instead of having some rocket attacks we have 50k killed? This isn't WW1, this is playing out in real time in people's homes on their computer screens.
What if 10 million more Ukrainian's are ready to flee to EU countries, does the EU allow that? How does that play politically in Europe? Is the west ready for the side effects of non stop human death, destruction and crumbling of the entire country? Let's not forget, it's going to be the west that pay's for and assists with the rebuilding of Ukraine but those costs are only going up.
For me, nothing is guaranteed. This includes Russia continuing to take more territory after an agreement is reached or even that NATO doesn't expand its members further, leading to Russia feeling threatened again and deciding to invade another sovergin country. So, for me, they could keep the war going to prevent what they speculate might happen, and while doing this, "accept" that another 100k+ Ukrainian soliders will die, or end it, get back to normalcy and maybe Putin dies and his successor doesn't do something similar.
This is an odd position to take here. Say your neighbour on the right had a problem with you being friends with your neighbour on your left and you got into a fight over it. If your neighbor broke into your house, shot and killed your wife, taken your son hostage, then proceeded to occupy your top floor and continues to shoot at you from the upper levels saying he'd only stop firing if you and the government sign the deed of the the top floor to him and let him keep your kid, would that be acceptable? This would be a neighbour who's violated two restraining orders against you in the past and previously beaten you up. Are his future actions guaranteed? Do you give in to his demands or meet him half way on crazy?
Ukraine is not being unreasonable here, they are willing to negotiate if Russia withdraws to their pre-invasion borders which Putin already rejected.
The US would be insane to end the war without total humiliating withdrawal of Russia, how often as a superpower do you get to bitch slap your rival without putting a boot on the ground?
Russia's total withdrawal completely ends them as a military threat, takes them out of the middle east for decades and sends China the message that their tactics and equipment are useless, it forces them into at least a decade of retraining and reequipping all for less than the price of an aircraft carrier
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The US would be insane to end the war without total humiliating withdrawal of Russia, how often as a superpower do you get to bitch slap your rival without putting a boot on the ground?
Russia's total withdrawal completely ends them as a military threat, takes them out of the middle east for decades and sends China the message that their tactics and equipment are useless, it forces them into at least a decade of retraining and reequipping all for less than the price of an aircraft carrier
To put it bluntly...at the moment beyond the food and energy issues, which can be remedied, a good chunk of the world has Putin's balls in a vise.
And now is the time to squeeze.
Because if you let him out you may not get another chance.
He who holds the Devil, let them hold Him well, for He'll not be caught a second time.
So yeah, the Ukrainians are going to have to fight and suffer to win the long-game. It sucks. Its not fair to them but they are a culture that has generations of suffering flowing through their veins (thanks Chernobyl!) and the Ukrainians are going to do what they've always done....they'll spit in your eye and fight like hell.
But if they negotiate a settlement now to stop this war then they're just kicking the can down the road....again.
They've got their boots on the Russian's throats. Stomp.
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For me, nothing is guaranteed. This includes Russia continuing to take more territory after an agreement is reached or even that NATO doesn't expand its members further, leading to Russia feeling threatened again and deciding to invade another sovergin country. So, for me, they could keep the war going to prevent what they speculate might happen, and while doing this, "accept" that another 100k+ Ukrainian soliders will die, or end it, get back to normalcy and maybe Putin dies and his successor doesn't do something similar.
Again, "end it, get back to normalcy" isn't one of the available options here. The two options available are: keep fighting status status quo, or give away people and land to Putin in exchange for his word he won't keep going (as he's broken in the past). What you're suggesting is a negotiated solution, which Ukraine will not accept because this will be the third one and Putin broke the last two immediately. You're now speculating that Putin will keep his word like he hasn't in the past. As you say, nothing is guaranteed, so your option is to give Putin some of their people to torture in exchange for his word that he won't do what he did the last two times he gave them his word
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Well unfortunately, while I can see your point, as has been mentioned many times throughout this thread, there is a 'long game' that has to be considered here as well.
We all want this war to stop. But not at the expense of essentially just setting Russia up to just do it again 10-20 years down the road.
I think the 'Powers that Be' arent just looking at ending this War, but also have an eye to preventing the almost-inevitable future one.
Western/NATO powers and Ukraine overall just want stability and peace in the region.
So unfortunately its just not as simple as stopping 'this' War because as we've seen, the Russians, given the opportunity, will almost certainly try again. So they're swallowing some very serious short-term pain in exchange for hopefully some exceptionally long-term gain.
And yes, I think we all understand that the Ukrainian people are the ones doing most of the swallowing of that pain. And as much as that really sucks, they've proven to be a tough bunch of bastards, hopefully for the prospect of long-term peace they can take it just a little longer.
I dont like it any more than anyone else.
Whatever agreement is made to end the war should include unconditional NATO protection of Ukraine. Any new attack = no fly zone or more.
Russia gets Crimea, Ukraine joins NATO, Americans' provide Ukraine with full armament.
Pipe dream.
Zenlensky has stated they will take Crimea back. People talk about having killer instinct well, Ukraine has it . They smell blood and the country wants every inch of land back. Ukraine dosen't have to officially join Nato right now . They have the force of Nato behind them and they want to send a message.
The "polish government " is trying Ukrainian soldiers on jet fighters,armored trucks ,tanks drones etc.
All Russia did so far is take a old ally into the 21st century. The war started with both sides fighting with soviet Era equipment and now one side is being injected with more modern tech . It's actually very ironic.
Russia invades to prevent the west from influence in Ukraine but the exact opposite happened. They didn't want Nato on their door step but that's exactly what is happening. Nato might not be in this fight directly but nato weapons are . Ukrainians are being trained on them. You don't think they are taking notes how to reverse engineer them and produce them locally ? On that I bet during trying from "Poland " many engineers are on had and planning to produce them themselves. Even if the populous isn't getting directions from nato how to the general population that fled to other countries are getting a crash course like this Ukrainian who is a machine .
Canadian company Roshels secret weapon for example is one guy the companyclaims is worth 20 from ukraine.
Last edited by combustiblefuel; 12-05-2022 at 08:03 AM.
