Well, made it through the first 20 mins of the 60 mins episode and feel dumber for it. It occured to me though, I think this was planned by him just to create a stir and get people talking -- sure enough tons of people are watching it. More free publicity for Trump. The media is again running his campaign for him whether they know it or not.
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Because on October 3rd they had Trump up more than that
The point was that the race didn't take a dramatic shift after the oil comment (that the majority agree with)
Anyway like I said, Biden doesn't need Texas
But that's literally the only post debate data, so it's not really showing anything.
I'm not making any generalizations about Texas. I spend time there. Biden has a razor thin chance to win Texas, and oil is still a big enough part of the economy for his comment to move the needle a little bit. Just look at all the Alberta reaction to that comment in this thread.
I agree that there is almost no chance Texas is relevant to this election. The only way Biden wins it is in a massive landslide across the country.
But that's literally the only post debate data, so it's not really showing anything.
I'm not making any generalizations about Texas. I spend time there. Biden has a razor thin chance to win Texas, and oil is still a big enough part of the economy for his comment to move the needle a little bit. Just look at all the Alberta reaction to that comment in this thread.
I agree that there is almost no chance Texas is relevant to this election. The only way Biden wins it is in a massive landslide across the country.
Yeah, but were any of those people voting Biden? Dems wanting to phase out fossil fuels is breaking news to people?
We will see more polls in the coming days...I suggest they will look about the same as they have the last 2 months
And I can’t believe I’m saying this but I whole heartedly agree with Trump that Leslie Stahl embarrassed herself by intentionally mischaracterizing his “come on suburban women like me!” Anyone with half a brain knows that while he was probably dead serious on the inside, his tone was the opposite of how she quoted it. It was embarrassing that she’d add that kind of editorializing to his words. Her quote added the exact opposite tone and inflection that he had in the real quote. Had this woman not seen the clip? Why would she read it so intentionally out of context?
Not that I feel like 60 minutes has a ton of integrity but of all the newsmagazine shows, they do have a decent pedigree. They just can’t help themselves with the “gotcha” questions.
That’s right, I just agreed with Trump and Sarah Palin in the same post. Now excuse me, I need to shower.
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I think it depends on the reporter. That Australian journalist Jonathan Swan did a pretty good job of calling out Trump's bulls**t right to his face a couple of months back, and Trump was definitely rattled during that interview.
Thats because Johnathan Swan is on HBO/ Axios. The network for who a reporter works for matters for ther leash given. Don't wanna lose that sweet sweet avcess to interview. Can't belive that interview was only in August feels like 3 years ago ...��
What does that link prove? The only polls that have any data after the debate show Trump up.
Quote:
Originally Posted by dino7c
You mean the D- rated poll that had Trump +3?
Because on October 3rd they had Trump up more than that
The point was that the race didn't take a dramatic shift after the oil comment (that the majority agree with)
Anyway like I said, Biden doesn't need Texas
We're at a point that we have to be very careful about the polls and really dig into them to understand how they have come up with their numbers. For example, I just reviewed the latest data that came out showing Trump and McSally leading in Arizona, which is contrary to the past few weeks of polling. So into the details of the poll I went and sure enough, the pollster over-sampled one population and under-sampled another. Polls have to reflect the actual makeup of the populations they trying to represent, and when you over-sample one population you taint your data. You need to normalize the data and this step was not done. After normalizing the data the results changed and was more reflective of the other polls. So be careful what polls you pick, look at the data, and determine if they are reflective of the communities they are trying to represent. This is why Nate Silver rates pollsters. Some do the actual work to normalize data while others intentionally over-sample certain populations and create inconsistent data. Rassmussen and Trafalgar are terrible for over-sampling so their numbers are questionable. Susquehanna have gone this direction this cycle as well.
And on that note, new CBS / YouGov polls out this morning show Biden continuing to lead in all 3 of the key states of Michigan, Wisconsin and Pennsylvania, and polling at around 52% among likely voters in all 3.
I have not posted a lot of polls in this election cycle—part of that is there have been so very, very many that it seems pointless to pick one out of the lineup and focus too heavily on it. YouGov is an online pollster for what that is worth but uses demographic weighting to arrive at a modeled electorate. Nate Silver has them as B rated.
At 11 AM Siena/NY Times will release a poll of Texas. That’s an A-rated pollster so it will be interesting to see how they see the State shaping up.
Two complications in terms of reading into that data when it arrives: first, all interviews were prior to the last debate, so if that moved the needle in Texas we won’t know. Second, early voting has been HUGE in Texas—now over 70% of 2016 turnout—so maybe there is less of a needle to move anyway. Hard to say; I don’t know the counties well enough to prognosticate on the outcome based on early voting but it’s notable that turnout appears to be very high in Houston and Austin, and lagging a bit in El Paso (but still higher than the 2016 benchmark). Keep in mind although Texas is huge, and traditionally republican, it probably has relatively fewer “rural white” voters vs suburban voters so if there is a suburban revolt against Trump that could have unpredictable effects in a place like Texas.
National Post article about Biden accidentally calling Trump "George". Looks like he has dementia everybody, election is over! The article is filled with Trump campaign quotes and tweets.
This is considered news in this country? God help us all.
Seems like Trump's campaign strategy down the stretch is to just hold MAGA rallies every couple of days until Nov. 3rd. And of course nobody is wearing a mask or social distancing at any of these things. That's a whole lotta Covid being spread around.
Seems like Trump's campaign strategy down the stretch is to just hold MAGA rallies every couple of days until Nov. 3rd. And of course nobody is wearing a mask or social distancing at any of these things. That's a whole lotta Covid being spread around.
"If I go, Theoden U.S.A. dies!"
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Seems like Trump's campaign strategy down the stretch is to just hold MAGA rallies every couple of days until Nov. 3rd. And of course nobody is wearing a mask or social distancing at any of these things. That's a whole lotta Covid being spread around.
I think internally, they have probably given up trying to win legitimately. It's all about appealing to extremists and making the transition of power as volatile as possible. I am sure Trump is in full sabotage mode now.
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