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Old 07-13-2018, 12:16 PM   #21
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Originally Posted by jessnuts View Post
Can the flames offer 8 years on this because he’s RFA, or is it also 7 max now that it’s after July 1st?
7 years max IIRC. They didnt have his rights before the trade deadline.
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Old 07-13-2018, 12:17 PM   #22
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they can only offer 7 because Lindholm wasn't on their roster this past trade deadline.
Fair enough, but just for future knowledge, could it be 8 if he had been?
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Old 07-13-2018, 12:22 PM   #23
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Fair enough, but just for future knowledge, could it be 8 if he had been?
Yes, RFAs can sign 8-year extensions after July 1 (so long as they were with their current team at the most-recent trade deadline). It's only UFAs who lose that option once July 1 arrives.
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Old 07-13-2018, 12:35 PM   #24
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I was trying to find some comparisons because $5m+ seemed a bit steep for a player that has never scored 20 goals or more than 45 pts.

Landeskog (LW) signed a 7 year 39 million dollar contract ($5.5 AAV) with the Avs in 2013. He's more like a 60pt player. Drafted in 2011. At the time of signing he only had one full season plus the shortened season due to lockout.

Forsberg (LW) signed a 6 year 36 million dollar contract ($6m AAV) with Nashville in 2016 and he's more like a 65 point player. Drafted in 2012. Had two full seasons in the NHL and was coming off a 33 goal 64 point season with Nashville.

Both wingers, both have been more productive and have more goals and points than Lindholm. Although I'd be willing to bet both have played with better linemates.

Getting Lindholm for around $5m seems about right as long as he continues to develop. I didn't check to see the RFA status of either of the comparable or how many UFA years they gave up though, which always factors into the contract.

Last edited by Cecil Terwilliger; 07-13-2018 at 12:39 PM.
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Old 07-13-2018, 12:37 PM   #25
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JT Miller who I'd say is quite a bit better got a 5 year contract for $5.25 million AAV. His contract only included one RFA year as well. Lindholm's will include 2.

I'd be a little disappointed if Lindholm's contract ended up looking similar to that.
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Old 07-13-2018, 12:43 PM   #26
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My guess is 6 yrs x $4.95M/yr.
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Old 07-13-2018, 12:46 PM   #27
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Originally Posted by Ashasx View Post
JT Miller who I'd say is quite a bit better got a 5 year contract for $5.25 million AAV. His contract only included one RFA year as well. Lindholm's will include 2.

I'd be a little disappointed if Lindholm's contract ended up looking similar to that.
I always read your posts in Ryan Pinder's voice. Not a shot at what you're saying or have said in the past... just an FYI.. your takes are very similar to his.
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Old 07-13-2018, 12:48 PM   #28
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I always read your posts in Ryan Pinder's voice. Not a shot at what you're saying or have said in the past... just an FYI.. your takes are very similar to his.
Well every single one of BT's RFA contracts have been home runs, so it's not time to panic yet.
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Old 07-13-2018, 12:49 PM   #29
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My guess is 5 years, $24M.

I wouldn't me surprised if it is 5 years $26.5M.
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Old 07-13-2018, 12:49 PM   #30
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Originally Posted by Ashasx View Post
JT Miller who I'd say is quite a bit better got a 5 year contract for $5.25 million AAV. His contract only included one RFA year as well. Lindholm's will include 2.

I'd be a little disappointed if Lindholm's contract ended up looking similar to that.
Have to take the tax situation into account though.

If he's making $5.25M in TB, he's bringing in $3.214M a year in net come, vs only $2.758M in Calgary.

To make the same net income in Calgary, he'd have to make a tad over $6.1M here
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Old 07-13-2018, 12:49 PM   #31
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Ashasx View Post
JT Miller who I'd say is quite a bit better got a 5 year contract for $5.25 million AAV. His contract only included one RFA year as well. Lindholm's will include 2.

I'd be a little disappointed if Lindholm's contract ended up looking similar to that.
Miller is also two years older than Lindholm, and this is his fourth contract. I would say that is likely to bode favourably in the Flames's favour.
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Old 07-13-2018, 12:55 PM   #32
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Have to take the tax situation into account though.

If he's making $5.25M in TB, he's bringing in $3.214M a year in net come, vs only $2.758M in Calgary.

To make the same net income in Calgary, he'd have to make a tad over $6.1M here
$5.25M USD is also $6.91M CAD right now. Taxes, obviously are an issue, but if you take into account all of other financial issues such as the exchange rate, cost of living in bigger cities versus smaller cities etc etc the money more or less ends up being a wash.

If these issues were as big of a deal as people are making them out to be, then New York, who have some of the highest tax burdens in the US and arguably the highest costs of living would have a supremely difficult time attracting UFA's and retaining talent... which is definitely not the case.


Edit.
Further to that point, just having a quick look at the NYR's player salaries, for the most part, they are all paid their NHL market value. There doesn't seem to be a premium paid by the NYR's to take into account the high cost of living or high tax burden, which I think really dispels the myth that NHL GM's care too much about the tax implications in their jurisdiction.

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Old 07-13-2018, 12:56 PM   #33
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My guess is 6 yrs x $4.95M/yr.
No, no, no!

$5,000,005.00
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Old 07-13-2018, 12:57 PM   #34
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Going to be really hard for Flames to negotiate much of a discount here. He just got traded here and Flames showed their interest with the package they gave up. Don’t expect the deal to be as team friendly as JT Miller’s.
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Old 07-13-2018, 12:58 PM   #35
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Originally Posted by Cecil Terwilliger View Post
I was trying to find some comparisons because $5m+ seemed a bit steep for a player that has never scored 20 goals or more than 45 pts.

Landeskog (LW) signed a 7 year 39 million dollar contract ($5.5 AAV) with the Avs in 2013. He's more like a 60pt player. Drafted in 2011. At the time of signing he only had one full season plus the shortened season due to lockout.

Forsberg (LW) signed a 6 year 36 million dollar contract ($6m AAV) with Nashville in 2016 and he's more like a 65 point player. Drafted in 2012. Had two full seasons in the NHL and was coming off a 33 goal 64 point season with Nashville.

Both wingers, both have been more productive and have more goals and points than Lindholm. Although I'd be willing to bet both have played with better linemates.

Getting Lindholm for around $5m seems about right as long as he continues to develop. I didn't check to see the RFA status of either of the comparable or how many UFA years they gave up though, which always factors into the contract.
Often for comparing contracts from >1year ago, the best way to compare isn't the dollar figure/cap hit, but the % of cap.

Comparables that would be above Lindholm (high picks signing as RFA off bridge) = Zibanejad, Schwartz, Niederretter, Schenn all made >=7% of the cap

So with a cap of 79.5M, that is 5.5M roughly. Lindholm is a tier below those guys, so he needs to come in well under on a 5 year deal, still under that on 6 years.

Nazem Kadri may be a closer comparable, and at 6.3% of cap when he signed, that is 5M on the nose (for 6 years). And Kadri did at least have 1 season of 20G 30A

I am hoping that the AAV only starts with a 5 if it is 7 years, but i can live with 30M/6 years. 5x5 is not a good deal, as it doesn't buy enough RFA years

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Old 07-13-2018, 12:58 PM   #36
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Would prefer 7... I could live with 6 though.
so if it was 5, you wouldn't be able to live?
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Old 07-13-2018, 01:04 PM   #37
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so if it was 5, you wouldn't be able to live?
I'd immediately lurch into seizures, experience simultaneous brain aneurysms, cardiac arrests and spontaniously contract leprosy. The stakes are huge for me man... HUGE.
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Old 07-13-2018, 01:05 PM   #38
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Plus while the ppg between Miller and Lindholm is pretty close Miller is coming off 3 straight 20+ goal seasons.

My guess is 6 x 5.1
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Old 07-13-2018, 01:05 PM   #39
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Looking at the other key contracts:

Expires in 6 years: Backlund

Expires in 5 years: Monahan, Neal

Expires in 4 years: Gaudreau, Giordano

Expires in 1 year: Tkachuk

So, if they get a 5 year term for Lindholm, he'll expire at the same time as Monahan and Neal and at the same time, will need to deal with Gaudreau and Tkachuk having bigger contracts than they have now. I'd expect Giordano to either be cheaper at that point after re-signing for his last contract.

If they can get a 6 year term, Lindholm would expire at the same time as Backlund, with Monahan having a new, higher contract, along with also having Gaudreau, Tkachuk and potentially Giordano.

Without being able to predict new players added, etc. I think the Flames push for 6 years as they'd only be dealing with Backlund as a core UFA expiring at the same time.
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Old 07-13-2018, 01:12 PM   #40
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JT Miller who I'd say is quite a bit better got a 5 year contract for $5.25 million AAV. His contract only included one RFA year as well. Lindholm's will include 2.

I'd be a little disappointed if Lindholm's contract ended up looking similar to that.
This is a good example for the ceiling, and for whom Lindholm should come in a little cheaper.

I will predict 5 x $4.85M or 6 x $5M
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