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Old 10-11-2018, 07:00 AM   #141
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The bond market has been on a 40 year bull run.
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Old 10-11-2018, 06:04 PM   #142
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My guy told me a couple of days ago to expect a 10% correction before the end of the year. They aren't expecting it'll be long but it'll freak out some investors.
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Old 10-12-2018, 07:23 AM   #143
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My guy told me a couple of days ago to expect a 10% correction before the end of the year. They aren't expecting it'll be long but it'll freak out some investors.
I don't want to take a shot at this guy, but the truth is they have no idea, because no one knows. Maybe they're right, but it's basically impossible to predict these shorter term moves with any certainty. I'm not even convinced that you (or I) could get the daily direction of the markets right if we gave it a shot at 7:25am each morning.

It's really not an attack on anyone, as it's the world we live in. Everyday the pundits tell us what happened and a reason why, but that's also a guess. Why did company ABC decline $25 this week when they have zero connection to China, won't be impacted by tariffs and there is no news? Well apparently it's that they anticipate rate increases, only those increases started months ago! It makes people feel better when they hear these things. The truth is we have these 10% pullbacks in the market more years than we don't, but that's about all we know. We don't know when with any reasonable foresight and don't know why (otherwise you would avoid them!). And while they take place more often than not, they don't always happen.
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Old 10-12-2018, 08:53 AM   #144
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Lots of people time the market, predict the market or otherwise beat the market in trading. I think you're getting mixed up with knowing what's going to happen ahead of time and reacting to what is happening. Trend lines are without question remarkably predictive. The trend line on the s&p chart starts on Donald Trump's first day on the job 2 years ago. It's no coincidence the market dropped exactly to the penny of that line. It was obvious to many people the market would bounce off of that line today. If it breaks down from that line it will be a bit of a tumble. You don't have to know if the whole Donald Trump effect is still in play or not. It might be but the narrative is much different than a year ago. Tax cuts and jobs are replaced with trade wars and debt. But the reality is we don''t have to know. We'll never be smarter than a hundred million traders. You just have to watch trend lines and react appropriately.



Spoiler!
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Old 10-12-2018, 08:57 AM   #145
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Lots of people time the market, predict the market or otherwise beat the market in trading. I think you're getting mixed up with knowing what's going to happen ahead of time and reacting to what is happening. Trend lines are without question remarkably predictive. The trend line on the s&p chart starts on Donald Trump's first day on the job 2 years ago. It's no coincidence the market dropped exactly to the penny of that line. It was obvious to many people the market would bounce off of that line today. If it breaks down from that line it will be a bit of a tumble. You don't have to know if the whole Donald Trump effect is still in play or not. It might be but the narrative is much different than a year ago. Tax cuts and jobs are replaced with trade wars and debt. But the reality is we don''t have to know. We'll never be smarter than a hundred million traders. You just have to watch trend lines and react appropriately.



Spoiler!
I think you're confusing my saying that you can't predict these things, with not being able to beat the market. I do think that you can do better than average, otherwise I wouldn't do what I do, but that doesn't mean that this weeks pullback was foreseeable,
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Old 10-12-2018, 11:23 AM   #146
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My guy told me a couple of days ago to expect a 10% correction before the end of the year. They aren't expecting it'll be long but it'll freak out some investors.
A 10% correction is zilch.

Did everybody forget Feb-Mar of this year?
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Parrondo's Paradox:

In Game A, you lose $1 every time you play.
In Game B, you count how much money you have left. If it is an even number, you win $3. Otherwise you lose $5.

Begin with $100. If you play only Game A, you will lose all your money in 100 rounds. If you play only Game B, you will also lose all your money in 100 rounds.

However, play the games alternatively, starting with Game B, followed by A, then by B, and so on. You will steadily earn a total of $2 for every two games.
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Old 10-12-2018, 11:44 AM   #147
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Did everybody forget Feb-Mar of this year?
Yes.
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Old 10-17-2018, 09:44 AM   #148
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YECO is really rolling this am. At 815 am it was below the number of trades I look for. It had only traded 450 times. An hour later it's at 26k trades. And no news on it either. Just a big dog pile of buyers.
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Old 10-17-2018, 10:41 AM   #149
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50k trades on YECO now and up 350%. Still no news. One circuit breaker trip at 3 bucks but steadily up to 7 now. I definitely regret selling at 2.33.
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Old 10-17-2018, 10:44 AM   #150
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50k trades on YECO now and up 350%. Still no news. One circuit breaker trip at 3 bucks but steadily up to 7 now. I definitely regret selling at 2.33.
There is news out.

Linkhttps://web.tmxmoney.com/article.php...symbol=YECO:US
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Old 10-17-2018, 02:01 PM   #151
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The stock is up 550% today because they acquired one (extremely large) gemstone for $10-30M less than it’s been appraised at previously? What am I missing?
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Old 10-17-2018, 02:07 PM   #152
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The stock is up 550% today because they acquired one (extremely large) gemstone for $10-30M less than itís been appraised at previously? What am I missing?
Market Cap was ~$5 million, so with an asset worth 20-30 million more than they paid for it the market cap is ~$24 million at the current share price. So yes that is what is causing the massive movement. This is a very small corp.
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Old 10-17-2018, 05:54 PM   #153
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Ended up at $17.55 after hours. All I had to do was go back to bed at 8am. That's all I had to do.
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Old 10-17-2018, 09:42 PM   #154
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Market Cap was ~$5 million, so with an asset worth 20-30 million more than they paid for it the market cap is ~$24 million at the current share price. So yes that is what is causing the massive movement. This is a very small corp.
Not really. They are paying 25 MM shares for the gemstone. At $17 those shares are worth $374 MM, plus the other outstanding shares puts it well over $400 MM.

It doesn't seem likely to me that a museum touring gemstone will be worth more than $400 MM. Seems more like low float and people who look at the market cap without adjusting for all the new shares and just think $50MM is more than the current market cap.
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Old 10-17-2018, 10:38 PM   #155
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Museums and don’t forget movies. We’re going to make this gemstone a star!!

Seriously. Wtf.
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Old 10-18-2018, 06:58 AM   #156
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I think the fact that the people who owned it before couldn't get their asking price OR cash is relevant. Instead they took shares in an unrelated and unsuccessful Chinese microcap stock. If you were selling something valuable would that be your first choice for what to get for it?

I'm not saying this won't keep going up, because it's nowhere near peak crazy, but it isn't exactly a value investment at this price.
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Old 10-18-2018, 07:58 AM   #157
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Funny how stocks are correlated to their sectors. Now all the Chinese construction companies, all four of them, are going up. CCCL CDAC CREG. So they're all buying big weird gems?
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Old 10-18-2018, 12:59 PM   #158
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Funny how stocks are correlated to their sectors. Now all the Chinese construction companies, all four of them, are going up. CCCL CDAC CREG. So they're all buying big weird gems?
Probably the people who want to own a Chinese construction company said something like, "I'm taking the ridiculous profit I got for absolutely no good reason and putting it into my next highest choice for a Chinese construction investment"
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Old 10-19-2018, 10:04 PM   #159
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Crazy action on Reliq Health Technologies (V.RHT) stock this week as well.
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