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Old 04-15-2020, 08:38 PM   #21
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I love this thread. I wish I had answers or theories, but I only seem to have questions. We keep hearing about flattening the COVID-19 curve, but is there any way to shorten the inverse economic curve? How long will it be and does it go up or is there just a cliff? How much debt is actually out there and how many buckets of stimulus dollars can be applied from a well that's empty?

When it comes to us emerging from social distancing, I think it will be slow and weird (how's that for a theory?) I can't imagine that folks who operate just fine from home would be first out. I can't imagine they'd start small and economically pointless like peeling the tape off playgrounds. So what would be the first steps toward 'how does it end'?
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Old 04-15-2020, 09:14 PM   #22
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My guess is that after the initial wave we try to go back to normal as best as possible while mitigating major risk vectors. I'm skeptic that we have anything close that treats covid and vaccines are at least a year away given normal vaccine testing and approval. This means that each type of business or societal norm needs to be reviewed and adjusted which is part of the phase we are in.

For example masks are mandatory as soon is this is possible in public and especially in situations it's not possible to social distance like buses or the c-train. We all keep social distances recommended and washing are hands anytime we go outside or are working.

A specific business example would be dentistry has even more rigorous ppe and guidelines to deal with the aerosols that are routinely produced and office practices have overhauled procedures to try to keep risk minimized from patients and staff. During this phase any time there is a local outbreak we try to shut it down as fast as possible with tracing and testing. In the meantime we work to provide those at most risk as much support as possible so they can stay at home safely and comfortably. This means new social programs and jobs to support them. Most importantly given the current data retirement homes need to be reassessed and made safer for those in care, care givers and everyone involved.

To make this happen we need wide spread ppe available again for most businesses to operate. Since China is manufacturing again and Canada has started manufacturing its own ppe I wonder how long it will take for stock to rise again. Accurate rapid testing will definitely move things forward but is a bit tricky. I think we can achieve a new normal pretty quickly that mitigates risk and helps us wait for the holy grails which are successful treatment or a vaccine.
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Old 04-15-2020, 09:29 PM   #23
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I think that would really depend on the country. It may be similar for Canada, but countries with lots of dense population areas following Sweden's experiment probably wouldn't fare as well(if you want to call it that). It doesn't appear to take long to go from "ok, we can juuust manage this" to out of control.
I agree,

I think that we will see multiple lock downs to regain control in a no vaccine scenario. You shutdown for 6-8 weeks lower your numbers than try again.
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Old 04-15-2020, 09:47 PM   #24
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The way things are going...with me dead
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Old 04-15-2020, 10:38 PM   #25
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This clip, I think, provides a pretty good view to how the Government views "re-opening"

https://twitter.com/user/status/1250603985238663170
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Old 04-16-2020, 09:31 AM   #26
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Old 04-16-2020, 09:47 AM   #27
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This is why we need to be really cautious with re-opening.
https://twitter.com/user/status/1250766278538608640
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Old 04-16-2020, 10:35 AM   #28
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That’s good leadership by Merkel

There are some people I have run in to in a professional context who are very good at expressing complicated concepts clearly, to an audience that hasn’t given the issue as much time for thought and analysis, but needs to understand it. It is a very desirable trait

Good for Germany that they have ended up with a leader that can do this
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Old 04-16-2020, 11:00 AM   #29
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This thread is a kind of fascinating experiment in how many times the same strawman can be erected and knocked down.

Nobody has said they expect things to return to normal soon. Not once. In thousands of posts. So can the people who have employed that strawman over and over and over again in this thread explain why they're doing it?

Is it a kind of cognitive slip, where someone saying "when we begin to ease restrictions" gets translated into "we should remove all restrictions" without you even being consciously aware? Or is it just the usual forum tactic of addressing a fictitious opinion someone didn't actually express in order to make your own position seem more reasonable in comparison?
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Old 04-16-2020, 11:15 AM   #30
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This thread is a kind of fascinating experiment in how many times the same strawman can be erected and knocked down.

Nobody has said they expect things to return to normal soon. Not once. In thousands of posts. So can the people who have employed that strawman over and over and over again in this thread explain why they're doing it?

Is it a kind of cognitive slip, where someone saying "when we begin to ease restrictions" gets translated into "we should remove all restrictions" without you even being consciously aware? Or is it just the usual forum tactic of addressing a fictitious opinion someone didn't actually express in order to make your own position seem more reasonable in comparison?
I re-read both pages of this thread and I don't see a single person arguing strawmans about removing all restrictions...

Who is employing a strawman over and over and over again in this thread that you'd like an explanation from?
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Old 04-16-2020, 11:16 AM   #31
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Originally Posted by CliffFletcher View Post
This thread is a kind of fascinating experiment in how many times the same strawman can be erected and knocked down.

Nobody has said they expect things to return to normal soon. Not once. In thousands of posts. So can the people who have employed that strawman over and over and over again in this thread explain why they're doing it?

Is it a kind of cognitive slip, where someone saying "when we begin to ease restrictions" gets translated into "we should remove all restrictions" without you even being consciously aware? Or is it just the usual forum tactic of addressing a fictitious opinion someone didn't actually express in order to make your own position seem more reasonable in comparison?

* um, this thread has 30 posts prior to this one, not thousands.
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Old 04-16-2020, 11:49 AM   #32
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Originally Posted by CliffFletcher View Post
This thread is a kind of fascinating experiment in how many times the same strawman can be erected and knocked down.

Nobody has said they expect things to return to normal soon. Not once. In thousands of posts. So can the people who have employed that strawman over and over and over again in this thread explain why they're doing it?

Is it a kind of cognitive slip, where someone saying "when we begin to ease restrictions" gets translated into "we should remove all restrictions" without you even being consciously aware? Or is it just the usual forum tactic of addressing a fictitious opinion someone didn't actually express in order to make your own position seem more reasonable in comparison?
Cognitive slip or something else.
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Old 04-16-2020, 11:54 AM   #33
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Expect this thread will be up to thousands of posts sooner than anticipated

How does it end? It doesn’t
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Old 04-16-2020, 11:56 AM   #34
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...with the Oilers missing the playoffs
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Old 04-16-2020, 11:57 PM   #35
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...with the Oilers missing the playoffs
So business as usual
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Old 04-17-2020, 04:55 AM   #36
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That’s good leadership by Merkel

There are some people I have run in to in a professional context who are very good at expressing complicated concepts clearly, to an audience that hasn’t given the issue as much time for thought and analysis, but needs to understand it. It is a very desirable trait

Good for Germany that they have ended up with a leader that can do this
Not just leadership, she is "stupid" smart

Merkel has a Ph.D in chemical physics with the highest grades in her grad class, she was awarded a doctorate for work on quantum chemistry, she's a mathematics wiz and is fluent in 4 languages.

Although not tested, some people think her IQ would be higher than any other country leader in history.
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Old 04-17-2020, 06:09 PM   #37
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Not just leadership, she is "stupid" smart

Merkel has a Ph.D in chemical physics with the highest grades in her grad class, she was awarded a doctorate for work on quantum chemistry, she's a mathematics wiz and is fluent in 4 languages.

Although not tested, some people think her IQ would be higher than any other country leader in history.

Even higher than "stable genius" level?


Seriously, Merkel is amazing...
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Old 04-17-2020, 06:49 PM   #38
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Women are just so much better at this than men. Men are terrible. Terrible leaders. Terrible survivors. Terrible intellectuals. Just all round knobs.
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Old 04-17-2020, 07:38 PM   #39
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This clip, I think, provides a pretty good view to how the Government views "re-opening"

https://twitter.com/user/status/1250603985238663170

You mean the federal government. Both BC and Quebec have indicated that they are going to make up their own minds.
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