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Old 04-18-2021, 12:48 PM   #3421
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Yup and COVID in this country is worse than ever. With the new variants, particularly in India, proving to be resistant to vaccine this thing is not going away anytime soon.

I would not be surprised to see the feds impose a total Wuhan style lockdown. Anyone looking forward to a normal summer should just forget it.
Covid isnít worse than ever though. Deaths are 1/3rd of peak deaths from the last wave. Ontario and Alberta rT are back near 1 and trending down. We chose to use the vaccine immunity to accept increases cases and delay locking down but that doesnít change that they are working.

Israel has effectively gotten rid of restrictions and has rT less than one.

We will have enough vaccine in Canada to give 80% of our population a dose by end of June.

We have 2 months left.
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Old 04-18-2021, 12:50 PM   #3422
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Did you factor in crash ratings when making your last car purchase?

Do you book flights based on the airline and aircraft safety records?

Did you measure air pollution when deciding where to live to mitigate an increased chance of future chronic disease?

Do you choose your commute based on the mode and route that has the lowest chance of a fatal accident?

Micro-optimizing for risk when we ignore more impactful risk analysis every day is an emotional response, not a logical one.
The problem with a lot of the risk analysis is that it only accounts for fatalities. There are many bad things that can happen short of death, in particular the airline safety and your pollution example, and possibly the AZ vaccine. In the 1980s Air India had an “incident rate” of around 3-5%, probably better to take the railway.

There are also underlying conditions. If you have asthma, you probably should not live in downtown Beijing. If you have DVT, doctors have advised against AZ, I don’t see any logical reason not to take that advice.

“Impactful risk analysis” is certainly valuable, but the subjective approach also has its place, even though a shark attack is unlikely, are you comfortable going in the water when you know there are tons of sharks in the vicinity. That certainly would alter my calculation.

Last edited by Flamenspiel; 04-18-2021 at 12:55 PM.
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Old 04-18-2021, 01:15 PM   #3423
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Interesting article on the newest challenge with vaccine in the States: Will enough people take the jab to provide herd immunity?


https://www.cbc.ca/news/world/us-vac...mand-1.5989684
The answer is mostly yes. Some states are going to have problems, mostly in the south. If the New York area (where I live) is at 80-85% it doesn't matter that the U.S. as a whole is only 70% because Mississippi is 47%. It's a problem if you live in Mississippi, though.

Also, as time goes on, there's going to be more and more incentives to get vaccinated. Already, if you want to go to a sporting event in New York State, you're going to have to get vaccinated. There's going to be more and more of that. International travel, etc.

And once kids are able to be vaccinated, it's going to be required for them in order to go to school (in most states). That'll bring it up another 20% eventually.
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Old 04-18-2021, 02:03 PM   #3424
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The answer is mostly yes. Some states are going to have problems, mostly in the south. If the New York area (where I live) is at 80-85% it doesn't matter that the U.S. as a whole is only 70% because Mississippi is 47%. It's a problem if you live in Mississippi, though.

Also, as time goes on, there's going to be more and more incentives to get vaccinated. Already, if you want to go to a sporting event in New York State, you're going to have to get vaccinated. There's going to be more and more of that. International travel, etc.

And once kids are able to be vaccinated, it's going to be required for them in order to go to school (in most states). That'll bring it up another 20% eventually.
I expect that by June, maybe, we will see approval for ages 12 and up.
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Old 04-18-2021, 03:05 PM   #3425
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I am a healthy male in my 30's and I am leaning more towards potentially getting the AZ vaccine. Something about getting a more traditional vaccine technology does appeal to me. On the efficacy side, despite random reports of it being a lower efficacy vaccine, the opposite is true.

That all being said, I do think the regulators and everybody is looking very very closely at this for AZ and J&J . The world needs to get this right as vaccinating the world is dependent on these two vaccines pulling substantial weight.

Sure we can sit here and say the risk is very low for specific groups of people, and that's true. The problem we have is that people who take these particular vaccines is that we just don't know how large the specific problem is or can be and which groups are most effected. Medical professionals are still trying to figure out what's going on and how best to actual treat what is now known as VITT. This NYT article did an excellent job highlighting the issue, something as basic as standard treatment medication for blood clots made the issue WORSE.

https://www.ekathimerini.com/nytimes...ood-clot-case/

It's all fine and dandy for people to be yelling we need to vaccinate people like crazy with AZ and J&J even with the low risk, but we need to make sure we get this right.
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Old 04-18-2021, 03:08 PM   #3426
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I expect that by June, maybe, we will see approval for ages 12 and up.
I think you're right. I'm also optimistic that 6-11 will be in August or September in time for school and hopefully 6 months to 5 by January.
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Old 04-18-2021, 05:14 PM   #3427
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Originally Posted by Julio View Post
Interesting article on the newest challenge with vaccine in the States: Will enough people take the jab to provide herd immunity?


https://www.cbc.ca/news/world/us-vac...mand-1.5989684
So the free Krispy Kremes with each vaccination didn't work? Surprising actually.
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Old 04-18-2021, 05:21 PM   #3428
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Ontario to offer AZ to people over 40 starting Tuesday. First domino? Will Alberta be next?


https://www.cbc.ca/news/world/corona...2021-1.5992305
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Old 04-18-2021, 05:22 PM   #3429
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https://twitter.com/user/status/1383921260040577025

Good work Ontario, hereís hoping Alberta follows suit.
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Old 04-18-2021, 05:24 PM   #3430
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If Alberta does this (by age rather than by birth year) I am just going to miss out. Turn 40 in September. D'oh! The good news is my wife would qualify.
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Old 04-18-2021, 05:25 PM   #3431
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Originally Posted by Julio View Post
Interesting article on the newest challenge with vaccine in the States: Will enough people take the jab to provide herd immunity?


https://www.cbc.ca/news/world/us-vac...mand-1.5989684
The Israel data showed herd immunity occurring after less than 50% of the population was past jab 1. The USA had far more natural population exposure than Israel. On top of that children are poor spreaders. So by the time you have 50% vaccination in the states, you've got about another 15% at least immune from exposure and then children on top.

If the USA can get up to 50% with two jabs, they should be fine in terms of herd immunity. There's an advantage to the USA losing interest in vaccines, as it opens up more supply. If Pfizer is giving the USA 3-4 million vaccines/day, and all of a sudden they only need 1-2 million/day, that's great news for other countries....like their neighbours.....like Canada. That's us.
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Old 04-18-2021, 05:26 PM   #3432
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If Alberta does this (by age rather than by birth year) I am just going to miss out. Turn 40 in September. D'oh! The good news is my wife would qualify.
Haven't Alberta's just been based on birth year?
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Old 04-18-2021, 05:29 PM   #3433
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https://twitter.com/user/status/1383921260040577025

Good work Ontario, hereís hoping Alberta follows suit.
Ughh....this absolutely sickens me. Canadians, particularly younger Canadians, have given up so much to save lives of other Canadians, particularly older ones. Now that there is a vaccine available, we have people refusing it on the extremely outside chance of side effects. The data shows virtually no side effects for people over 55, but those people are refusing the vaccine, which could hurt someone younger. So now we're opening up the vaccine to younger people to protect the older ones from infection.

People are so f-ing selfish. Get your F-ing vaccine now, and end all of this.
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Old 04-18-2021, 05:42 PM   #3434
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Haven't Alberta's just been based on birth year?
I thought it was by actual age with AZ, not birth year, but I could be wrong. I hope I am!
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Old 04-18-2021, 05:53 PM   #3435
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I thought it was by actual age with AZ, not birth year, but I could be wrong. I hope I am!
I believe it is currently with the NACI 55+ restriction. If the provinces go against the NACI recommendation, they could just make it year of birth across the board.
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Old 04-18-2021, 06:13 PM   #3436
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Ontario to offer AZ to people over 40 starting Tuesday. First domino? Will Alberta be next?


https://www.cbc.ca/news/world/corona...2021-1.5992305
Will people put their money where their mouth is so to speak? Itís one thing to approve, itís another as to whether people will take it up in numbers.
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Old 04-18-2021, 06:17 PM   #3437
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Will people put their money where their mouth is so to speak? Itís one thing to approve, itís another as to whether people will take it up in numbers.
I think it will be no problem to use existing doses.

If we get more 2-4 weeks from now when each day the allowable age is dropping by a year I doubt it.
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Old 04-18-2021, 06:18 PM   #3438
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If Alberta does this (by age rather than by birth year) I am just going to miss out. Turn 40 in September. D'oh! The good news is my wife would qualify.
They have gone by year of birth for every other vaccine criteria so you are probably in.
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Old 04-18-2021, 06:21 PM   #3439
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I thought it was by actual age with AZ, not birth year, but I could be wrong. I hope I am!
My friend, who doesn't turn 55 until November, was able to get it last week.
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Old 04-18-2021, 08:24 PM   #3440
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Will people put their money where their mouth is so to speak? Itís one thing to approve, itís another as to whether people will take it up in numbers.
Iím turning 41 this year and intend to get AZ if itís available in my area. Itís a good vaccine, and the sooner we all get vaccinated the sooner this ends.
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