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Old 03-02-2021, 08:54 AM   #1341
undercoverbrother
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I'm healthy and in my 30s. Put Astra Zeneca in my body please.
It doesn't stimulate hair growth
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Old 03-02-2021, 09:34 AM   #1342
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Not arguing with you GordonBlue, just responding to the article you posted.
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https://www.cbc.ca/news/politics/nem...ment-1.5932714

The head of Moderna's Canadian operations, Patricia Gauthier,said she is not aware of any studies done or led by Moderna on what happens when the interval between the first and second doses is changed from four weeks to four months.
From NACI (National Advisory Committee on Immunizations):

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In general, interruption of a vaccine series resulting in a greater than recommended interval between doses does not require restarting the series as delays between doses do not result in a reduction in final antibody concentrations for most multi-dose (prime-boost) products. For many other multi-dose vaccines provided in adulthood using other vaccine technologies, the greatest proportion of short-term protection is achieved with the first dose with additional doses primarily intended to extend protection over the longer term.
Pfizer:
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A further post-hoc estimate of vaccine efficacy calculated from 14 days after dose 1 until dose 2 (a period of one week for the majority of study participants) was 92.3%
Moderna:
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Vaccine efficacy calculated in the same small subgroup of study participants from 14 days after dose 1 (was 92.1%
Data, evidence, and procedure are strong underpinnings of robust scientific method. However, there are people (including scientists) that are unable to go outside of that box when appropriate. During a worldwide pandemic with limited vaccine availability causing massive amounts of health and financial harm, there are times to do a risk analysis of of upsides and downsides of different tactics. In this case, downside risks of delaying the second dose are minimal, compared with the upside risks of vaccinating an entire population months earlier.

This isn’t a case of ignoring data that indicates negative outcomes, only not allowing a lack of data to prevent significant upside outcomes. Or to put it another way, there is NO data indicating extended intervals are the wrong decision, only a lack of data verifying that it is the right decision.

I am really impressed with BC public health on this, and can only hope Alberta and the federal government will follow suit.

As always, further data is welcomed to alter my viewpoint.

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Old 03-02-2021, 10:20 AM   #1343
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Data, evidence, and procedure are strong underpinnings of robust scientific method. However, there are people (including scientists) that are unable to go outside of that box when appropriate. During a worldwide pandemic with limited vaccine availability causing massive amounts of health and financial harm, there are times to do a risk analysis of of upsides and downsides of different tactics. In this case, downside risks of delaying the second dose are minimal, compared with the upside risks of vaccinating an entire population months earlier.

This isnít a case of ignoring data that indicates negative outcomes, only not allowing a lack of data to prevent significant upside outcomes. Or to put it another way, there is NO data indicating extended intervals are the wrong decision, only a lack of data verifying that it is the right decision.

I am really impressed with BC public health on this, and can only hope Alberta and the federal government will follow suit.

As always, further data is welcomed to alter my viewpoint.
Well said. There is obviously a risk to extending the interval due to lack of data, but based on what we know that is probably relatively minor in the face of the guaranteed risk of leaving people vulnerable. So when you have the chief science advisor saying something like "if a province wants to extend the interval, they need to run a clinical trial before doing so", it's just so completely out of touch with the reality and the urgency of the situation. There's a reason that even a place like the UK, that has a very robust vaccine supply, is going with longer intervals; it will save lives.

The interval lengths for these was clearly done in large part to speed up the trials (a 3 month interval means you're waiting 2+ months longer for data than a 3-4 week interval). We see it clearly with the Oxford vaccine, where using the same adenovirus vector for two doses in a short timeframe was always a risk. By any measure, a longer several month interval was always likely to be more effective, but they still went with a 4-week interval due to the urgency of getting through the trials.

I really only have two qualms with the 16-week strategy:

1) I probably would have gone with 12 weeks; the net effect between a 12-week and 16-week interval isn't that great in terms of covering the population (it basically gets you 90% of the way there in the same time period), and it is already being done in the UK and Quebec, so there is probably more real-world data to support it.

2) Due to the way doses are set to arrive, a significant majority of people will not have such a long interval (someone getting their first dose in early June will probably be able to get a 2nd dose in August, rather than October). But the ones that do have the longest interval will be the people getting the doses in March and April (i.e. the most vulnerable). So again, going with a 12-week interval would have gotten the elderly their 2nd dose a bit sooner without affecting the timeline for everyone else all that much (particularly once you consider AZ and J&J doses that are likely to arrive in Q2).
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Old 03-02-2021, 10:24 AM   #1344
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Perhaps because they are less vulnerable, the long gap should go to the younger health workers and whoever else is in the early groups, and still do a shorter interval for those most at risk?
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Old 03-02-2021, 10:29 AM   #1345
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Perhaps because they are less vulnerable, the long gap should go to the younger health workers and whoever else is in the early groups, and still do a shorter interval for those most at risk?
Yeah, I think I'd like to see the regular gap for seniors, or at least those 75 plus.

In general I think using logic and past experience in the absence of data is a solid choice. So I think the longer gap to speed up first dose vaccination of young/healthy people absolutely makes sense.
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Old 03-02-2021, 10:33 AM   #1346
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With the mRNA vaccines did they see lower immune response in old people like they did for AZ?
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Old 03-02-2021, 12:02 PM   #1347
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Some more concrete timelines for the Oxford vaccine from India; 500K arriving tomorrow, 1M arriving in the 2nd half of April, and 500K more in mid-May. Also of note, the first 500K seem to be from an early stockpile that was produced in 2020, so they're getting near their expiry date. So 300K need to be used within March and the other 200K need to be used within April.
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Old 03-02-2021, 12:23 PM   #1348
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Some more concrete timelines for the Oxford vaccine from India; 500K arriving tomorrow, 1M arriving in the 2nd half of April, and 500K more in mid-May. Also of note, the first 500K seem to be from an early stockpile that was produced in 2020, so they're getting near their expiry date. So 300K need to be used within March and the other 200K need to be used within April.
I'm sure I haven't missed it but I guess we await (soon?) Alberta's plan for this 50 k or so vaccine- (presumably given expiry dates these will all be deployed as first doses)


given that over 65 is not being recommended, seems like they would circle in on other group 2 cohorts?
LTC(staff)/Health care not already dosed
Chronic diseases ( * wonder if they may avoid this group for a few reasons I could think of)
prisoners etc
50-65?
or head in an entirely new direction of other front line (as I suppose has been hinted elsewhere)
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Old 03-02-2021, 02:42 PM   #1349
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Up over 2 million...second million took 27 days. What's the over/under on reaching 3 million injections?
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Old 03-02-2021, 02:49 PM   #1350
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https://www.cbc.ca/news/politics/ast...rrow-1.5933603

The Astra-Zeneca vaccines we bought from India are a month away from expiring. We bought old vaccines. What an absolutely unserious country we are.
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Old 03-02-2021, 02:59 PM   #1351
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https://www.cbc.ca/news/politics/ast...rrow-1.5933603

The Astra-Zeneca vaccines we bought from India are a month away from expiring. We bought old vaccines. What an absolutely unserious country we are.
Whats normal expiry ??

You complain about Canada not getting shots, but they go get shots and if they can get them all in arms before expiry isn't that a good thing ?

You keep moving the goalposts on this topic.
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Old 03-02-2021, 03:04 PM   #1352
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Whats normal expiry ??

You complain about Canada not getting shots, but they go get shots and if they can get them all in arms before expiry isn't that a good thing ?

You keep moving the goalposts on this topic.
Six months.
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Old 03-02-2021, 03:06 PM   #1353
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Not arguing with you GordonBlue, just responding to the article you posted.
no worries I'm not arguing as I really know jack ####.

just logged onto CBC news this morning and it was one of the leading articles.
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Old 03-02-2021, 03:07 PM   #1354
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Who gives a **** about the expiry as long as they're used in time? That's what happens when producers build up stock months before these vaccines are approved. The AstraZeneca doses South Africa received were exactly the same where they were set to expire in April. The Serum Institute's production is largely for developing nations (though the UK and EU are also sourcing doses from there) who can't roll these out fast enough, so with Canada's order the options were:

a) send these doses to countries like Canada and the UK who can use them immediately;

b) send them to countries who are receiving limited doses and who probably can't use them in time, letting some of them go to waste;

c) throw them in trash.

For a guy who was up in arms about Canada "raiding COVAX", you sure seem cavalier about letting doses go to waste because they don't meet your cork sniffing standards of freshness.
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Old 03-02-2021, 03:19 PM   #1355
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I just hope they don't go to waste? Honestly, stuff like this doesn't really inspire confidence.
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Old 03-02-2021, 03:23 PM   #1356
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I just hope they don't go to waste? Honestly, stuff like this doesn't really inspire confidence.
Why would they go to waste?

"Hey, Canada, can you use these before the end of March?"
"#### ya we can!"
"Sounds good, here you go."
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Old 03-02-2021, 03:30 PM   #1357
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I just hope they don't go to waste? Honestly, stuff like this doesn't really inspire confidence.
So you were in favour of ordering AZ in advance.
You were also in favour of countries investing in vaccine production prior to vaccines being approved

Exactly what you wanted happened. Now your still concerned.

When asked what success of the vaccine program would look like you declined to answer.

One measure of success beyond expectations might be increasing Q1 doses by 10% over forecast. The government just did this. Inject this vaccine in my arm.

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Old 03-02-2021, 03:38 PM   #1358
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Just wait until Peter finds out they used Arial on the label instead of Verdana.
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Old 03-02-2021, 03:40 PM   #1359
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https://www.cbc.ca/news/politics/ast...rrow-1.5933603

The Astra-Zeneca vaccines we bought from India are a month away from expiring. We bought old vaccines. What an absolutely unserious country we are.
It is an expiry date or a best before date or a #### after date?

Honestly, just get all CF medical persons involved in jabbing people.

####, I've done enough inoculations in my time that I could do this no worries.
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Old 03-02-2021, 03:58 PM   #1360
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Technically they don't go bad on their expiry date, there is tons of buffer time built in to that date. But given the abundance of caution we take with medicine, they're not usable after that point.

However, it's 300K doses (the other 200K don't expire in April); if we can't administer those over the next 30 days, we have far bigger problems going forward than worrying about some doses expiring. We're likely going to be needing to do 300K doses a day by late spring.
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