Francis with Kerr: Who is going?

[pepper24]

Originally Posted by ComixZone

Ferland's fall from grace really seemed to set in while Monahan's injuries would've been piling up.

Ferland, this year, was not good a 1st line player. He was carried by his linemates, and was hugely inconsistent.

Ferly staying/going I think entirely depends on whether or not the team sees his development as complete (trade him) or if there's still room to grow (keep him).

I think he stays and he showed enough this year. 20 goals and was on pace for 30+ goals until he cooled off. He has earned a longer look. He can play of first line but ideally they find top winger and he finds his place on 2nd or 3rd line. Interesting to hear if he was battling any injuries.

Your last paragraph is more suited to someone like Bennett. He's on a show-me contract and had another meh year. Inconsistent and didn't really get going this year. Takes bad penalties and besides being a hard worker doesn't add much so far in his career. Since rookie season he has been on large decline.

[Muta]

I'd trade Ferland right now while he's still perceived as a 20-goal scorer. I'd like to be wrong on this, but I don't think his value will ever be higher than right now. Trade him with a defenseman for a legit RWer.

[SeanCharles]

Originally Posted by Flames Draft Watcher

Took a long break but here are my thoughts on the Flames, what went wrong, how close we are to contending and how to get there.

What Went Wrong?

The league is now a 3 line league. I think in order for the Flames to be contenders we need to have 2 scoring lines and an elite checking line. I think part of the problem this year was that GG over utilized Backlund/Frolik as offensive players when I think their strength lies in being elite checking line players. In order to develop two scoring lines I think one of Bennett or Jankowski needed to be developed into a 2nd line scoring centre. IMO GG did not put these players in position to succeed at this because we did not play any of our top offensive wingers with those players. IMO it was a mistake to keep Tkachuk on our checking line where some of his offence was wasted by being played with Backlund/Frolik. Tkachuk or Gaudreau was needed to play wing with Bennett/Jankowski in order to give those kids confidence and create a secondary threat line that could be used offensively. This would've freed up Backlund/Frolik to be used as an elite shutdown line. IMO one of GG's biggest failings is not realizing appropriate roles for players like Tkachuk, Backlund and Frolik and how to build up Bennett/Jankowski into top two line players. This alone is cause for his firing IMO before you even get into the issue of him not being a good emotional leader and motivator for the club. Obviously not having Giordano and Hamilton on the first powerplay unit for the half the year is indefensible and once again points to this coaching staff not recognizing the talent on this team and how to utilize it. GG may be good at coaching his system but he fails completely at building depth on a team and utilizing the players at hand.

How Close are we to having a Contending Roster?

The Flames are not a rebuilding team. It is bizarre to me that some fans think we are still in the rebuild. IMO the Flames have most of the components needed to be a contending team. Obviously we're short a scoring winger and this remains the only large and noticeable hole. The rest I think falls into place if players are slotted better. Some have argued in this thread that we don't have contending depth at centre with Monahan/Backlund as our top two centres. I agree with that in a sense. To me the Flames are contenders once Bennett or Jankowski pushes Backlund down to be an elite 3rd line checking centre. Inexplicably we haven't really seen Bennett or Jankowski centering top two line wingers so we don't know if they can handle that but in theory I think both have the capabilities to do so. Bennett does look better on the wing to me but I think can be developed into a top two line player still. Some people don't have the patience required to develop young players and want them dealt before they are fully developed. I think we should probably sit on Bennett unless someone overpays.

So what do the Flames need to do to become a contender? The big step for me is to hire a competent coaching staff that put players in the right slots. The second step is to trade for or sign another scoring winger.

How Do We Get There?

Do we need more heart? More guys who hate to lose? Perhaps. Out of all the names I've seen mentioned in this thread as fitting Francis's description the one that sticks out most to me is Hamilton.

Hamilton has the skill and physical tools to be a Pronger like defenseman. What he lacks is the drive to play physical, to make the opposition pay a big price to come into our defensive zone. He also doesn't seem to be as engaged defensively as he does offensively. Does this mean he lacks heart or doesn't hate losing enough? In a way I think it does. Is it a problem? By itself no. But perhaps there are too many players like this on the Flames. Gaudreau can't be physical due to his size constraints. But both Monahan and Hamilton lack a physical engagement despite having good size and strength. Both seem to lack a passion and urgency at times. Does this mean we have to trade one or both? I don't think it does. That said I think both Monahan and Hamilton would fetch an absolute ransom in terms of trades. To use the examples being heavily used in this thread I think both Monahan and Hamilton hold more value than Richards/Carter did and I think you could get an absolute haul back from certain GMs for either guy. Out of the two I'd rather keep Monahan as I think his drawbacks are less important than Dougie's. Also we don't have a replacement for Monahan if we were to deal him whereas our strength in prospects lies on the defense.

Brodie. Brodie has not looked great since he was switched to LD. Some people have argued this has tanked his value. But GMs don't usually just base valuations solely on the last season or 2 played. Their idea of a player and valuation of a player is based on their entire career. Some GMs will think they might be able to get more out of Brodie in a different situation. IMO Brodie is worth a 1st+ or a scoring winger. Would I rather trade Brodie or Dougie? I would definitely rather trade Brodie.

Gaudreau. I think you can win with him. I think if our whole roster is built around him as our main weapon we would struggle. But I don't think that will be the case when we're contending. He will be one of many weapons. The % of goals he's in on is an indictment of our secondary scoring more than anything. Gaudreau is not the problem. I'd be inclined to keep him unless you get a crazy offer on him.

So how do we get another scoring winger? I think you have to deal one of Brodie or Hamilton. Our biggest depth in terms of prospects is defensemen. I think Valimaki will be a top 3 defenseman and that he's not very far off. Andersson has some speed issues but other than that has looked very good. Kylington and Fox are both high upside prospects. The obvious way to increase our depth in scoring is to deal a top 3 dman for a scoring winger. And this won't hurt that much considering how many high end young defensemen we have in the system. I would prefer to deal Brodie but I recognize that Hamilton will get you way, way more and the offers for Hamilton may just be too amazing to turn down. I think Hamilton could be dealt for a scoring winger + 1st rounder or top prospect. But if you can find a Brodie for a scoring winger type deal I think that would be the best way to go.

IMO our depth looks pretty good if a new coach can develop Bennett and/or Jankowski into top two line players and we acquire a scoring winger via trade.

Gaudreau-Monahan-New Guy
Tkachuk-Jankowski-Ferland
Bennett-Backlund-Frolik
Brouwer-Lazar-Foo
Shore-Hathaway

I really think coaching let us down this year in many ways. GG did not utilize our players to their best potential and failed to lead, inspire and motivate his team. I think our roster is actually a lot closer to contending than some here believe. I think the team is still asset rich despite trading away the picks for Hamonic and I don't think that was as bad a trade as some believe it was.

Plenty of reasons for optimism should we get a new coaching staff in place. And Treliving still has a lot of assets to work with for when he decides to make moves to balance the roster out. If the Flames do decide to trade a young core player I think Treliving can get a lot back for some of them.

The only thing I don't like about what you had to say here is keeping Brouwer. I don't care about the intangibles 4.5 million for a 4th line 25pt winger who takes away prime special teams time from younger guys is not something I would like to watch on a regular basis for a 3rd year in a row.

He needs to go and there is no if ands or buts about it IMO.

Thanks for the take tho I agree with the rest but would be pissed if we traded Hamilton.

[the2bears]

Originally Posted by SeanCharles

The only thing I don't like about what you had to say here is keeping Brouwer. I don't care about the intangibles 4.5 million for a 4th line 25pt winger who takes away prime special teams time from younger guys is not something I would like to watch on a regular basis for a 3rd year in a row.

He needs to go and there is no if ands or buts about it IMO.

Thanks for the take tho I agree with the rest but would be pissed if we traded Hamilton.

But what if he's just another victim of GG's system?

[SeanCharles]

Originally Posted by the2bears

But what if he's just another victim of GG's system?

Haha come on. We've all watched him for 2 years. He is a declining player. He will not pull a Dustin Brown and become a legitimate player again.

I think you might be joking so I won't continue

[GioforPM]

Originally Posted by the2bears

But what if he's just another victim of GG's system?

I think Brouwer's game may just not be suited for the NHL today. Much like Lucic's only not as blatant. I can see why they got him, and what they expected. I just think the combination of declining skill and the change in the pace of the game is not conducive to him.

[St. Pats]

Originally Posted by the2bears

It's not so much the suggestion of being disengaged, but rather the style in which that comment was delivered.

It's been a long disappointing season, and the original comment seemed to take things a little too personal with Ferland. I just get tired of comments where people can somehow judge the player's motivation through the screen and the criticism turns to insult.

Anyway, just my thoughts on it.

I thought it fit in well in a Francis thread but that was why I qualified it. A posting style is all it amounts to me just like various people we read who all have their own shtick. Maybe it distracts from the point but it's a forum for doing more than just analysis.

Bottom line for me is still he does not play like a power forward. He can do so. In his defense fans go to the extreme saying he can't play like he did against the Canucks for a whole season. So what? Who expects him to play in the regular season like he would for a ramped up playoff game? I just expect him to finish his check, win board battles, go strong to the net etc. In other words provide the missing components to the top line.

If he isn't slotted on the top line where does he fit if he isn't going to play a consistent physical game? Just play a solid power forward game and he gives what they hoped Brouwer would bring to the table. But he seemingly can't do it for some reason.

Streaky scorer / Oh well that's a given. But why can't he play a solid non-playoff power forward game on a regular basis?

Selling high seems like the way to go.

[Calgary4LIfe]

There are two things wrong with Brouwer:

1) His cap hit
2) Gulutzan's propensity to over-use him

I have had no issues with Brouwer when the two points were omitted. I don't think he hurts the cap right now. Maybe in his last season the Flames will have to try and move him, but for this upcoming season he is not hurting this team.

Hopefully a new coaching staff comes in and uses Brouwer appropriately. If that is the case, then Brouwer is a good depth player that just happens to be overpaid, but is half-way through his contract.

[Erick Estrada]

Originally Posted by Muta

I'd trade Ferland right now while he's still perceived as a 20-goal scorer. I'd like to be wrong on this, but I don't think his value will ever be higher than right now. Trade him with a defenseman for a legit RWer.

Sure they can trade him but I don't think he brings back much of a haul by himself. Maybe if he's in a package with say Brodie to another team but I feel those Reto Berra trades only come around once a while and teams that scouted the Flames have plenty of video and intel on Ferland and they see the same guy we have in that he's pretty invisible on a lot of nights and doesn't play a heavy enough game. This is probably would be the time to sell high but I don't think he's going to fetch much more than a 2nd round pick at best.