2024 NHL Draft Thread

[DazzlinDino]

Originally Posted by 1qqaaz

I've resigned to the fact that none of us will see a lottery win in our lifetimes. Except maybe Scorp.
There should be a rule about only being allowed to win once in a 10 year period.
Similar to how the lottery would have worked if the 2012-2013 season were completely cancelled. If you get so lucky and screw it up, then too bad.

This is the foundation of a very good idea, you should be allowed to win and draft first but then anot eligible to draft first until that first round pick goes through all of the teams. Teams are still going to have an opportunity for second round picks or third round picks, but I think every franchise should at least but have the opportunity to be rewarded with a first round pick. If the team doesn't think it's the best person available they can always pick the second to third or fourth option but they only get to pick that first round once until it fully cycles again.

[The Cobra]

Originally Posted by The Fonz

To NJ
Markstrom (50% retained)
Mangiapane (50% retained)

To CGY
NJ's 2024 1st
Holtz

Not sure why NJ would have any interest in Mangiapane.

Certainly not at the expense of Holtz.

[FlamesAddiction]

Originally Posted by Monahammer

I'm all for picking Iginla- I have even stated here I think he's just as talented as Catton personally.

But it would be really hard seeing Eiserman left on the board. Remember people were dumping on Caufield for being too one way and definitely too small, and he has come through a pretty great player. Eiserman has elite goal scoring ability, just the same if not better than Caufield. Lots of questions about his d game but he's average height and weight unlike Caufield.

A lot of people are hung up on Catton because he is a center in junior. If he was a guy projected to be a first line center though, I would expect him to be ranked in the top 5 more often. Players that project to be 1st line centers usually go in the top 3-5. Iginla IMO, has the potential to be a 1st line winger, so the question for me is whether getting a potential 2nd line center is better than a 1st line winger, just based on how rare top 6 centers are in general. Personally, I go for the 1st line winger.

Then again, it's quite possible that Catton projects to be a winger in the NHL just like a lot of players who play center in junior. He is a tad undersized and most 1st line centers are not. If that is the case and we are comparing Iginla and Catton as wingers, it probably pretty close for me. Catton has better playmaking, but doesn't like to shoot as much it what I recall reading.

[activeStick]

Has there ever been an analysis done on draft year risers and fallers and how they ended up performing after being drafted?

[FlamesAddiction]

Originally Posted by activeStick

Has there ever been an analysis done on draft year risers and fallers and how they ended up performing after being drafted?

I don't know, but I would love to see it. From what I recall, Jarome Iginla was a riser and in a redraft that year, he'd be the 1st overall pick pretty easily I think. Another one was Marian Hossa. When Ottawa took him, it was seen as a little off the board, but I remember them justifying it by saying he was on the rise. That's just anecdotal and I would love to see something more in depth. That was like a generation ago as well. I think scouting has generally become better since then.

[Aarongavey]

Originally Posted by The Fonz

To NJ
Markstrom (50% retained)
Mangiapane (50% retained)

To CGY
NJ's 2024 1st
Holtz

So you are really hoping that 2024 pick hits. Holtz is probably a guy who goes somewhere between 17-24 in a redraft. Everyone ahead of him is better and of the guys behind you would have Jarvis, Lundell, Peterka, Perfetti, Mercer, Quinn, Faber, Schneider, Foerester, Guhle, Rossi, Barron (12 players) almost all certainly higher now with a bunch of guys like Chinakhov, Evangelista, Neighbors, Zary, Greig possibly better (5 guys). Seems like a heck of a lot to give up for that package.

Probably better to just ask for the 2024 and a lesser prospect or two, keep Mangiapane and let them keep Holtz and then offer Mercer a two year contract 3.6 million in year one and 5.4 million in year two and see if you can get him for a 2nd round pick. If not you at least have the 2024 pick and an extra retention slot and Mangiapane. I don't think Holtz is worth that much.

[Tbull8]

Originally Posted by Aarongavey

So you are really hoping that 2024 pick hits. Holtz is probably a guy who goes somewhere between 17-24 in a redraft. Everyone ahead of him is better and of the guys behind you would have Jarvis, Lundell, Peterka, Perfetti, Mercer, Quinn, Faber, Schneider, Foerester, Guhle, Rossi, Barron (12 players) almost all certainly higher now with a bunch of guys like Chinakhov, Evangelista, Neighbors, Zary, Greig possibly better (5 guys). Seems like a heck of a lot to give up for that package.

Probably better to just ask for the 2024 and a lesser prospect or two, keep Mangiapane and let them keep Holtz and then offer Mercer a two year contract 3.6 million in year one and 5.4 million in year two and see if you can get him for a 2nd round pick. If not you at least have the 2024 pick and an extra retention slot and Mangiapane. I don't think Holtz is worth that much.

I think jersey immediately matches that offer sheet

[Buff]

Originally Posted by cannon7

As a father, if I'm Jarome, I just want my kid going to the team where I think he'll have the best chance at success. But at the same time, I do understand how there could be an appearance of nepotism if the Flames pick him. But anyone raising this concern just needs to watch the kid play. Wherever the Flames have him ranked, he is clearly rocketing up pretty much every scout's draft ranking. This wouldn't be a situation where the Flames go way off board.

But chances are looking pretty good that Iginla will be gone by the time the Flames pick. Imagine he becomes Bedard's RW for the next decade?

Nepotism isn't the concern here. It's expectations. If Tij gets drafted by a team like NYI, then he gets to build his own legacy there. If Tij gets drafted by Calgary the expectations for him to live up to and exceed his dad's legacy will be high. All things being equal, the Calgary fanbase will have the most pressure on Tij for him to be a top player.

[Aarongavey]

Originally Posted by Tbull8

I think jersey immediately matches that offer sheet

Teams don’t use offer sheets so it is a moot point but it would be nice to potentially set up an offer sheet two years later for Nemec. That offseason right now the Devils have 7 players making 54.725 million. Assuming a 96 million dollar cap they have about 41 million for 14-16 players. Some guys like Holtz and Hughes would be signed in between but it would be hard, not impossible, but hard for them to sign Mercer that offseason to whatever he would want and also match an offer sheet for Nemec at around 8 million a year (or whatever the 1st, 2nd and 3rd compensation number is)

But it does not matter because offer sheets are not used. Either way I hope the Flames do not get Holtz.

[Buff]

Originally Posted by dissentowner

We are Flames fans, we are not allowed nice things like Celebrini.

and if we get Celebrini you can almost assume he'll make Sam Bennett look like an overwhelming success story!

[shutout]

Originally Posted by Erick Estrada

Take a look at my avatar. Does that look like the face of a man that loves money so much that he would prioritize drafting a player because he could add a big boost merchandise sales over merit of being taken at that pick?

Looks like the face of a man that should have been riding a motorcycle in California in the 70's. He has aged terribly.

[blankall]

Originally Posted by Monahammer

I like that we're all so beaten down from hope that barely any are considering potential lotto wins of any sort. The life of a flames fan!

I haven't even let myself think of us landing celebrini but man would that just be awesome. He's demolishing the NCAA as a 17 year old.

To be fair, the Flames currently have a 3% chance of winning the lottery, and the highest they will go will be 6%....The Flames recent luck has been outstandingly bad. Maybe we're due?

Edit: The Flames, at 8, would have another 6.2% at #2 and a 0.2% chance at #3. So that's 12.5% at a top 3....but also a 33.2% chance of moving back to 9th or 10th.

[Roof-Daddy]

Originally Posted by blankall

To be fair, the Flames currently have a 3% chance of winning the lottery, and the highest they will go will be 6%....The Flames recent luck has been outstandingly bad. Maybe we're due?

Edit: The Flames, at 8, would have another 6.2% at #2 and a 0.2% chance at #3. So that's 12.5% at a top 3....but also a 33.2% chance of moving back to 9th or 10th.

Haha, that would not surprise me one bit if the Flames dropped to 8th last and had some other teams win the lottery and push us down a couple of slots.

[Sandman]

Draft Thoughts (Smurf Edition, Vol.4):

C/LW Mac Swanson has to deal with the fact that he's only 5'7",165lbs, and yet- all he ever seems to do is put points on the board, everywhere he plays. The son of Brian Swanson (remember him?) sits first overall in the USHL in assists for the Fargo Force with 46, 2nd overall with 70 points in just 50 games, and 2nd overall with a +35. In 2022-23, Swanson was an All-Rookie Selection in the USHL, with 55 points in 57 games, and won the Anderson Cup with Fargo, while finishing 2nd in playoff scoring with 10 points in 9 games. He wore an "A" for Team USA at the Hlinka, producing 4 points in 4 games, and his 9 assists in the most recent World Junior A Challenge in Nova Scotia are a record in the 17-year long history of the tournament (he added 2 goals for 11 points in 6 games). Swanson, who looks like he's still in grade school, is considered a natural center, but plays mostly LW for Fargo.

Swanson leans heavily towards playmaking, and he's an offensive wizard who sports elite vision and creativity, making quick decisions and outthinking opponents. He's a top-tier playmaker, who creates something every shift- he's very unselfish and makes his teammates better. He sees the ice well in all 3 zones. To create room for himself and teammates, Swanson is quite polished in the art of deception and manipulation- he's adept at baiting defenders to approach him, then passing against the grain to open teammates. He will look off a shot, then pass to high-danger, and wrote the book on feints, fakes, and dangles. He is a high-level puckhandler with quick hands, and has the 1-on-1 moves to turn opponents inside out. To offset his stature somewhat, he's tenacious on the puck, and has a low center of gravity- making it hard to strip him of the puck, or push him off of it. Unfortunately, Swanson is not an explosive skater- more quick and light on his feet than fast, and doesn't possess any breakaway speed. He does, however, exhibit supreme edgework and lateral agilty, which gives him and extra layer of shiftiness and escapability.

Most of Swanson's goals are scored from the low slot, as he's not a dangerous shooter from further out with a shot that's not particularly powerful. He sneaks into high-danger areas around the crease to find openings to recieve a pass, or to pounce on rebounds, and has soft hands with some moves to beat goalies from close-in. Though he's quite diminutive, he's got the guts to go to the dirty areas to battle for pucks, and won't shy away from contact. He shows intensity in 50/50 contests, and will battle along the wall- he's a character guy, and a leader, who sets an example by working hard on and off the ice, as well as in practice. He's very driven to succeed, and committed to constantly improve. He seems to always be involved in the thick of the action, and he's hard-working, with an unrelenting motor. In transition, he mostly defers to teammates with quick puck-touches, and give-and-go's, but he's committed and aware defensively. Though he can be outmuscled, he will still engage physically, and uses an active stick to kill plays. His deficiencies are obvious, but he can't do much about his height- so he will need to get a lot stronger and faster, and develop his shot. In his draft year, Johnny Gaudreau was listed at 5'7", and posted 72 points in 60 games for Dubuque for a 1.20 ppg- Swanson has a ppg of 1.40, and has some of the same issues as Gaudreau to overcome, namely the size and skating. He is committed next year to the University of North Dakota. Look for him in the 5th, or 6th round.

[Sandman]

Draft Thoughts (Third Best Name in the Draft Edition):

I didn't think too much of LHD Timur Kol up to this point in the season, but I saw his name a little higher up in a mock draft (I believe it was 3rd round), so I thought I would look in to him again. Right now, his MHL team (Omskie Yastreby) is in the second round of the playoffs, and Kol is tied for the league lead in scoring by defense, with 3 goals and 5 points in 7 games. In his last 8 regular season games with that club, he had 7 points for a total of 8 points in 14 MHL games. Kol is also 5th in scoring by U-20 defensemen in the VHL (Russia's second-highest men's league), with 8 points in 23 games, and played 2 games in the KHL with no points. He is one of the youngest players in the draft, with an August. 23rd birthday, and stands 6'3", weighing in at 198lbs. It's hard to watch Russian players these days for obvious reasons, but i watched two games he participated in last night, one from the VHL, and one from the MHL.

Kol is a solid two-way defenseman, and like a lot of big kids coming out of Russia these days, he possesses excellent 4-way mobility- not Simashev excellent, but still very smooth and fast. He regularly wins races to loose pucks, and can dance around opponents with his agility. There's a nice, quick burst when he stops and starts, and his transitions are quite fluid. If he has the opportunity, and some men back to cover for him, he will join the rush like a winger, or spearhead the rush himself- he has shown plenty of flashes of puck-rushing ability. Kol runs the offense from the blueline like a quarterback, and distributes quite proficiently, walking the line to open up seams and stay available for back-passes when not in control of the puck. He's a quality PP point-man, and has a bomb of a snap-shot from the point, with the accuracy to find holes, and employs a lightning-quick release. The rest of his arsenal of shots are hard and heavy as well. He will pinch into the play to support the offense, but will also charge up the boards to keep loose pucks alive in the zone, and he likes to sneak in on the weak side to the net for close-in chances. Kol will angle his skates and body away from checkers and their sticks in order to protect the puck, and though his stickhandling isn't that fancy, his long reach helps his puck control in these situations.

While Kol shows potential in his offensive game, only time will tell how well this side of his game translates to the next level- the good news for him is that he already has the hang of the whole "defensive zone" thing. On the backcheck, Kol is extremely disruptive, and highly active in the zone, with superb positional awareness. He works hard, stays engaged, and is often the last man out of the defensive zone, and the first man in. He skates well backwards, and stays in front of the play, and on the right side of the puck- his gap control is tight, as he can match even small opponents step for step, but on occasion, he can give his adversaries too much room to move. Most of the time, he is able to angle his prey to the boards where they are either pinned, or finished off with a hit. He covers his net well, supports his teammates in battles, and has good awareness of where his enemies are on the ice. His skating and stick help him to hound puck-carriers and take away space, but he can sometimes get caught chasing, taking himself out of position. Kol has no problem with putting his body on the line to block shots.

Kol's main weakness, and it's a big one, is his decision-making, particularly in his breakout passes- he quickly establishes body positioning on retrievals, but is often pressured into forcing ill-advised passes, throwing the puck away, or making egregious mistakes. It's more of a problem in the VHL against better competition, but the problem still exists when playing against juniors. He uses his body as leverage to impose his will, win battles, and push opponents off the puck, but aside from the odd hit, he isn't overly physical- or at least not a sphysical as he could be. This is another area that looks a bit better in junior than he shows against men, which is to be expected. There's a ton of potential here, with a fairly high floor, so I will guess third/fourth round. He's quite young, and still developing his offense- which looks to be coming around lately.

[CalgarySames]

Maybe a bit of a hot take here, but if the Flames end up drafting high enough that Lindstrom and Catton are both available, I'd favor Catton.

I know that Linstrom is more of the traditional Calgary style pick. His forecheck and backcheck remind me a lot of Datsyuk, relying on high end stick handling and positioning to take pucks away, and he has a great first step, reaching full speed quickly. He is relied upon on the PK for his positioning and the fact that he is still a threat offensively even on the kill. And I think he would be a great fit on a line with Huberdeau and Coronato. He uses his speed and postions himself well for Huberdeau style passes. He can make space and feed Coronato, while being a threat to shoot. The league seems more and more to favor his style of play.

Lindstrom has his size, and can skate very well for his size, and has a great shot. But he isn't as dynamic in the offensive zone, and doesn't bring the same sort of defensive effort that Catton does.

Ideally when we get up to make our pick Lindstrom is already off the table and Catton is still available, but personally given the choice between the two I'm taking Catton every day of the week.

[Fan69]

Originally Posted by CalgarySames

Maybe a bit of a hot take here, but if the Flames end up drafting high enough that Lindstrom and Catton are both available, I'd favor Catton.

I know that Linstrom is more of the traditional Calgary style pick. His forecheck and backcheck remind me a lot of Datsyuk, relying on high end stick handling and positioning to take pucks away, and he has a great first step, reaching full speed quickly. He is relied upon on the PK for his positioning and the fact that he is still a threat offensively even on the kill. And I think he would be a great fit on a line with Huberdeau and Coronato. He uses his speed and postions himself well for Huberdeau style passes. He can make space and feed Coronato, while being a threat to shoot. The league seems more and more to favor his style of play.

Lindstrom has his size, and can skate very well for his size, and has a great shot. But he isn't as dynamic in the offensive zone, and doesn't bring the same sort of defensive effort that Catton does.

Ideally when we get up to make our pick Lindstrom is already off the table and Catton is still available, but personally given the choice between the two I'm taking Catton every day of the week.

Catton seems to have a lot more cerebral type if game but is on the smaller side. Lindstrom has all the physical play but not sure how much iq is there?

Way i see it Catton is top six or bust. Lindstrom will minimally carve out a career bottom six but the sky could also be the limit, but probably had more chance to not be a top line guy than to be one.


Really wish Connely didnt have the issues that he does to me he is pretty much at the same level of tool wise as catton in a bigger frame.

Or we could just win the lottery for once in history and just walk away with a consesus number one center! le sigh.

[Sandman]

Draft Thoughts (Mystery Edition):

In my search for information on various draft prospects, I keep coming across the name of LHD Viggo Gustafsson, but there's precious little out there to see or read on him. He plays primarily for HV71's J20 club, on the same defense group that boasts Edvin Nilsson, Gabriel Eliasson, Wilhelm Hallquisth, and Sharks' 5th-rounder Axel Landen. Though Gustafsson is considered to be a defense-first player, he has outperformed all of his D teammates offensively, other than Hallquisth, with 19 points in 41 games- 8 of those points coming in the last 8 games of the regular season. His offensive production ranks 7th in the league for U-18 players, and 25th overall, so at the very least, he has potential on the offensive side of the puck that he's not getting credit for. Still, Elite Prospects calls him the best defensive performer outside of the first round. Gustafsson is one of the youngest players in the draft with a September 11th birthday, and measures a sturdy 6'2",194lbs.

Gustafsson is mainly a shutdown D who plays PK, and 5-on-5. He has excellent awareness, and plays well against the rush. He makes excellent reads, and keeps a tight gap on attackers, angling them to the outside where he either pins them to the boards, or finishes them physically- his 44 penalty-minutes show that he's not the most friendly guy out there, and he has been called a physical presence. He uses his reach, and an active stick to disrupt the cycle, and he frequently kills plays as early as the neutral zone. In possession, he keeps things very simple with the puck, and doesn't activate into the play very often. Most of the time, he's just trying to move the puck out of danger, but he can run the point with basic passing, and will pinch down to keep the puck alive in the zone. His skating is said to be above-average, but nothing special, and devoid of top-end speed right now. He's certainly not a burner, but his mobility will improve as he gets stronger. In transition, he relies on short passes to move the puck, but on occasion, he can connect with teammates on more complex plays- such as stretch passes in breakouts. Gus is a workhorse who plays big minutes, often against the opposing teams' best players. I think there's there's some potential here, but Gus has to play a less tentative game. I'm guessing he'll be picked in the fourth round.

[FlamesAddiction]

Originally Posted by CalgarySames

Maybe a bit of a hot take here, but if the Flames end up drafting high enough that Lindstrom and Catton are both available, I'd favor Catton.

I know that Linstrom is more of the traditional Calgary style pick. His forecheck and backcheck remind me a lot of Datsyuk, relying on high end stick handling and positioning to take pucks away, and he has a great first step, reaching full speed quickly. He is relied upon on the PK for his positioning and the fact that he is still a threat offensively even on the kill. And I think he would be a great fit on a line with Huberdeau and Coronato. He uses his speed and postions himself well for Huberdeau style passes. He can make space and feed Coronato, while being a threat to shoot. The league seems more and more to favor his style of play.

Lindstrom has his size, and can skate very well for his size, and has a great shot. But he isn't as dynamic in the offensive zone, and doesn't bring the same sort of defensive effort that Catton does.

Ideally when we get up to make our pick Lindstrom is already off the table and Catton is still available, but personally given the choice between the two I'm taking Catton every day of the week.

Based on what I read about Catton, he sounded similar to Huberdeau, just smaller. I have also heard some people suggest that Lindstrom's size gives him a big advantage in junior that won't come as easily in the NHL. It's must be a tricky thing for a scout, because getting a player with size is always a plus, but you have to be sure that it isn't disguising any flaws.

[MrMike]

Originally Posted by Buff

Nepotism isn't the concern here. It's expectations. If Tij gets drafted by a team like NYI, then he gets to build his own legacy there. If Tij gets drafted by Calgary the expectations for him to live up to and exceed his dad's legacy will be high. All things being equal, the Calgary fanbase will have the most pressure on Tij for him to be a top player.

Josh Doan just scored his first goal in his first game for the Coyotes today… doesn’t seem to effect him too much