[Signing] Patrick Kane to Detroit

[TheScorpion]

In fairness, the Canucks aren't exactly the example I'd use to indicate any sort of extensive trend — they're better than Detroit, but also having a crazy heater across the board — but it's a fair point.

[The Cobra]

Kane also brings a certain swagger where he goes.

Likely comes from winning 3 Stanley Cups.

Likely carries over to the rest of the team also.

[Matt Reeeeead]

As i said, sone regression is coming. But it’s nuanced. The right system at the right time with skilled players can buck certain trends. The pre shot movement these guys have, like the Oilers, creates a higher % of tap in and extreme danger chances not reflected by general population.

No, I don’t think Vancouver is the best team in the west, but the high end scoring isn’t disappearing anytime soon.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

[powderjunkie]

Originally Posted by TheScorpion

No, I didn't mean because of Kane's contract (although who knows what kind of raise he gets). I think they're at the point where they're out of range from being able to reliably pick blue-chip prospects in the draft. Their core is solid, but not great, and because they've graduated to being a playoff bubble team, they're out of lottery range — but I think they might be capped out as a bubble team with this core unless they can pull off a miracle trade for Elias Pettersson or something.

I'd agree with all of that...though it's also the case for most rebuilds and really most teams at any given point in time. So the question is what to do about it:

1. be deliberately bad to move up a bit in the draft (digging yourself a deeper hole to dig out of)

2. Aggressively spend assets to find that potential high-end talent (generally creates an unsustainable situation where the cupboards can't effectively fill gaps). Sometimes this works (Stone, Eichel), but much more often you find more 'very good' than 'great'

3. Hold onto draft capital and young assets with discipline while doing everything else possible to improve in the short term.


Yzerman picked door #3 and so far it's working pretty well. You can find superstars anywhere in the draft. DET made 5 picks in the top 50 last year, and they've got dozens of other lottery tickets that may pay off. Odds of that happening are far better if they come into a culture on the upswing.

Picking 9th again this year isn't changing their franchise fortunes compared to picking 19th.

[FanIn80]

I really want to build a better stats site with a much friendlier presentation layer than what's out there at the moment.

[Matt Reeeeead]

Kane is now a bad signing since he improved the team and hurt their draft stock


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

[Ashes]

Kane this season as a PPG player making $2.75M

[thefoss1957]

I don't buy the argument that a team has to tank to get good players. If that was true, then there is a team that has had 7 top 10 picks in a six year span (including 4 1st overalls!) that should have dominated. And as we all know, they are NG! In the short term, getting to the playoffs gives a team a chance at glory. Perpetual tanking? Gets you an E=NG thread at Calpuck!

[#-3]

Originally Posted by thefoss1957

I don't buy the argument that a team has to tank to get good players. If that was true, then there is a team that has had 7 top 10 picks in a six year span (including 4 1st overalls!) that should have dominated. And as we all know, they are NG! In the short term, getting to the playoffs gives a team a chance at glory. Perpetual tanking? Gets you an E=NG thread at Calpuck!

Yep.

I actually dug through about 15 drafts from 2001 - 2016, and looked at who would have been the top 5 picks in a redraft.

I think 9/10 times #1 is still a top 5 pick once they all start playing, I think somewhere around 60-70% of the time was objectively the best player in the draft class (although it's certainly possible that Edmonton's player development policies skewed that number downward).

50% of #2-5 are still top 5 players.

So typically 3 of the best players in a draft go in the first 5 picks. usually filled out by 1 player form the late 1st round and 1 player from a later round.


You don't need a top 5 picks to get good players, but it's easier. 2016 is actually a fairly good example. The Flames arguably got the 2nd, 3rd and ~15-20th best players in that draft with a 6th overall, and a late 2nd and an early 3rd. Unfortunately only 1 of the 3 still has a contract with the team, and I do not foresee him getting re-upped, but that's a different problem.

[FanIn80]

I don't think the argument is that you have to tank to get good players.

The argument is that the easiest and most-likely way to get good players that can become the core of your franchise is through the draft - and the higher you pick in the draft, the more likely you are to get those players.

Outside of the draft, you have to rely on trades or (U)FA signings... and Matthew Tkachuk trades are very. very, very rare. Not only that, but they aren't waiving to come to Calgary if we don't already have a team worth joining. It's the same with free agents.

Places like Florida, Toronto, New York, LA, etc, can put together a core using the market, because players want to play there - and players know that other players want to play there, so there's always going to be talent coming through the doors. No one's signing in Calgary unless the talent is already here. Even if they're coming from a worse situation than "-40 winters and no playoffs," we still have to compete with NY, TO, LA, etc, to sign them.

So, in summary, while it's not mandatory to tank in order to win... How many elite, "build your team around" players have we acquired outside of a top 10 draft pick?

[Jiri Hrdina]

Originally Posted by TheScorpion

It's a step forward ... although my concern is that Detroit is going to be artificially capped out in the mushy middle going forward with their lack of high-end young talent. The guys they already have on the roster are ideal secondary guys to me. I'd love it if I had Larkin as my 2C and Seider as my 2D but Detroit doesn't really have anyone else at those two premium positions, nor are any blue-chip guys coming up through the system. They could strike gold on a guy like Danielson but even if he pans out, I'm not sold on the viability of that core, even if some of the individual players are solid.

It reminds me of when Vancouver had Horvat as their top centre.

I agree with this concern but primarily within their forwards, where I don't see that elite guy that is going to drive the team.
I'd be happy with their D, as I think Seider is a fine #1 and then you have Evidsson coming. That's a good foundation.

But the forward crop lacks an elite player. Raymond should be their 2nd, or ideally 3rd best forward.

And they really f'd up with the Cossa pick over Wallstedt.

[OutOfTheCube]

TheScorpion and Patrick Kane is this season's dino7C and Matthew Tkachuk.

[FanIn80]

Originally Posted by OutOfTheCube

TheScorpion and Patrick Kane is this season's dino7C and Matthew Tkachuk.

Imagine Detroit and Florida in a series lol.

[TrentCrimmIndependent]

Originally Posted by The Cobra

Kane also brings a certain swagger where he goes.

Likely comes from winning 3 Stanley Cups.

Likely carries over to the rest of the team also.

Confidence is a hell of a drug.

We get so caught up in underlying stats around here that its impossible to account for other things that might actually factor into on ice performance.

[dino7c]

I still think it was an odd place for HIM to sign...they aren't winning anything

[dino7c]

Originally Posted by OutOfTheCube

TheScorpion and Patrick Kane is this season's dino7C and Matthew Tkachuk.

they will win the same amount of cups

[Sylvanfan]

Originally Posted by FanIn80

Imagine Detroit and Florida in a series lol.

I'll be cheering on Detroit in that series. The Panthers can eat my ass!

The Red Wings have pretty good depth and have been pretty healthy. But they don't measure up in goal, and when you lack some game breakers it makes the upset hard to pull off. But Grubauer got oddly hot for the Kraken to take out the Avalanche last year. So who knows. Kane has tended to produce in clutch situations in the past.

[powderjunkie]

Originally Posted by dino7c

I still think it was an odd place for HIM to sign...they aren't winning anything

Unless he wanted to go on the league minimum diet he probably didn't have many true contender options. CAR and FLA are the only two that probably had room, but who knows if they were really interested or not.

DET always had the ejector seat option where he'd move to a contender at the deadline.

[Johnny Makarov]

Originally Posted by dino7c

they will win the same amount of cups

So Tkachuk will win 3 cups?

[blankall]

Originally Posted by Matt Reeeeead

Kane is now a bad signing since he improved the team and hurt their draft stock


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

Green text? Detroit is in a playoff position. Their rebuild has been going so badly that they were in the process of selling off players that were now heading to UFA status.

Getting another top 10 pick was just going to leave them in a cycle of cycling through higher end prospects and seeing them depart as the team continues to struggle. They have the talent. Now time to win.