[News] Friedman's 31 Thoughts, Sept 10, 2019: Tense RFA waiting game hits final stages

[getbak]

https://www.sportsnet.ca/hockey/nhl/...-final-stages/


Talk about the unsigned RFAs and where things are likely to land...

If I were a team, I’d want term. The price for talent never goes down. Look at all the great players who extended in the summer of 2016 — Johnny Gaudreau, Nathan MacKinnon, Sean Monahan and Mark Scheifele among them. How much has the market changed in three years? It’s massive. If you really believe in your free agent, lock him in for as long as you can.

Colorado wants this with Mikko Rantanen. Gabriel Landeskog and Cale Makar are up in two years, MacKinnon in four. They don’t want to worry about extending the talented Finn a second time in that span. The Avalanche seem willing to make Rantanen their highest-paid player, but don’t want him making, say, $4 million per year more than MacKinnon.

The dynamic is similar with Matthew Tkachuk in Calgary. A five-to-eight year term makes him the highest-paid Flame. Everyone understands that. But how much higher than Gaudreau and Mark Giordano is the question.

Many of the "thoughts" are from the NHL media event last week where Sam Bennett was the Flames' rep.

The Athletic’s Craig Custance reported Calgary’s Noah Hanifin tinkered with his one-timer at Darryl Belfry’s skills camp last month. He’s not the only Flame working on his finish. Another is Sam Bennett.

“I can do a better job of finishing opportunities,” he said. “Release points. Someone told me every time I shoot the puck it’s the same. Sometimes you need to mix it up, change the angle, change the release point, and I was working on that.”

Bennett added he was working on shooting off different feet, as well.

[Wolfman]

Who's feet was Sam using is my question.

[1Nite]

Originally Posted by Wolfman

Who's feet was Sam using is my question.

Neal's.

[Flames Draft Watcher]

Nm

[SuperMatt18]

If Bennett can improve his shot that could be big for him.

He's been able to get into good scoring positions, but just can't finish. Hopefully this helps with that.

It's kind of funny how much shooting skill can change how a player projects at the NHL level.

I was looking over the last 3 seasons and Bennett and Draisaitl have very similar shot volume metrics at 5v5, but the difference is pretty much entirely based on shooting skill.

Bennett:
TOI: 2777
CF%: 51.6%
HDCF%: 52.9%
xGF%: 51.0%

iCF: 615
iHDCF: 187
Rush Attempts: 24
Rebounds Created: 43
Shots: 346
Goals: 27
Shooting %: 7.8%

Draisaitl:
TOI: 3682
CF%: 50.5%
HDCF%: 50.3%
xGF%: 51.9%

iCF: 618
iHDCF: 185
Rush Attempts: 25
Rebounds Created: 37
Shots: 374
Goals: 54
Shooting %: 14.4%

Pretty much identical stats when it comes to volume of shots, corsi, high danger chances, rush attempts, rebound generation, etc but Draisaitl has double the goals that Bennett does at 5v5 in that time frame based on being an elite finisher, while Bennett is subpar.

[Cali Panthers Fan]

I remember the last Flames player who worked really hard on his shooting over the summer. That was Lance Bouma right before he jumped from 5 to 15 goals, so a 300% increase. So I hope Sam does the same and jumps from 13 to 39 goals this year.

[Enoch Root]

that's a 200% increase, but point taken

[neo45]

I really hope the last time a Flames player worked on their shooting in the off-season wasn’t back in 2014

[Cali Panthers Fan]

Originally Posted by Enoch Root

that's a 200% increase, but point taken

Wait, what? No, I'm pretty sure I'm right. Or....maybe not if you're talking about % increase rather than 3 times as much.

This doesn't happen often, but now I'm really confused.

[Scroopy Noopers]

Originally Posted by Cali Panthers Fan

Wait, what? No, I'm pretty sure I'm right. Or....maybe not if you're talking about % increase rather than 3 times as much.

This doesn't happen often, but now I'm really confused.

100% increase = 2 x as much.

[cKy]

Originally Posted by Cali Panthers Fan

Wait, what? No, I'm pretty sure I'm right. Or....maybe not if you're talking about % increase rather than 3 times as much.

This doesn't happen often, but now I'm really confused.

https://www.omnicalculator.com/math/percentage-increase


%200!

[GranteedEV]

Originally Posted by Cali Panthers Fan

I remember the last Flames player who worked really hard on his shooting over the summer. That was Lance Bouma right before he jumped from 5 to 15 goals, so a 300% increase. So I hope Sam does the same and jumps from 13 to 39 goals this year.

I really doubt Bennett will shoot 30+%, he's not Mario Lemieux. Even 80s stars didn't hit those %s.

But if he had hit Bouma 2015 type percentages last year, he'd beat 18 goals.

[D as in David]

Originally Posted by Cali Panthers Fan

I remember the last Flames player who worked really hard on his shooting over the summer. That was Lance Bouma right before he jumped from 5 to 15 goals, so a 300% increase. So I hope Sam does the same and jumps from 13 to 39 goals this year.

IIRC, Lindholm put extra work into his shot last summer; seemed to benefit him, too!

[DoubleK]

I hope these RFAs get signed already. It's horribly distracting for the team and missing camp really screws the player up.

[Hey Connor, It's Mess]

Originally Posted by Cali Panthers Fan

Wait, what? No, I'm pretty sure I'm right. Or....maybe not if you're talking about % increase rather than 3 times as much.

This doesn't happen often, but now I'm really confused.

15 goals is 300% of 5 goals but the increase itself is 200% from 5 to 15.

[Cali Panthers Fan]

Originally Posted by Hey Connor, It's Mess

15 goals is 300% of 5 goals but the increase itself is 200% from 5 to 15.

Yup, that's what I did wrong.

Thanks everyone!

[Tyler]

Wow, it only took Sam what, 5 years to figure out his big swooping wrist shot that would inevitably get deflected or blocked by the defender in front of him wasn't working?

[Textcritic]

Originally Posted by Tyler

Wow, it only took Sam what, 5 years to figure out his big swooping wrist shot that would inevitably get deflected or blocked by the defender in front of him wasn't working?

Most players drafted never figure out how to play in the NHL.

[GranteedEV]

Originally Posted by Tyler

Wow, it only took Sam what, 5 years to figure out his big swooping wrist shot that would inevitably get deflected or blocked by the defender in front of him wasn't working?

2014-15 - Hardly a year. A successful postseason by any means, though.

2015-16 - scored 18 goals as a 19yo, probably didn't expect to have scoring struggles going forward. Biggest issue as a rookie was balance and strength to win board battles.

2016-17 - focused primarily on learning the center position, and learning to use his linemates as effectively as possible.

2017-18 - probably started working on finish after this year, as it was the first and to date only season he shot below a very respectable 10.7%.

2018-19 - Started getting his confidence back away from Gulutzan, but still had to contend with a typecast role. Still, finish wasn't his major shortcoming, as his primary points were more than respectable, albeit not spectacular. Secondary assists and icetime were the biggest areas holding his production back.

So really it's two offseasons where I assume finish was actually his primary focus.

[TheScorpion]

A Bennett with more finishing capability could be a tremendous asset for the Flames. Just look at Lindholm — he came from Carolina along with criticism for his weak shot, but before long, he became one of the very best finishers on the Flames.

Calgary doesn't need Bennett to be as productive as Lindholm. They don't even need him to be as productive as Backlund, although it's certainly an attainable goal. But having even a slightly more impactful Bennett in the lineup in conjunction with the more dangerous assets could do wonders in improving the overall firepower of the team, especially taking likely regressions into account from the top players.

The 2nd PP unit sorely lacks a true finisher, and if Bennett can become that player... man, watch out.