Considering the Heat are Tops in the AHL are we undervaluing our prospects?
What grade do you think the AHL Heats prospects deserve?
Ferland-17 pts in his last 12 games.
Granlund-10 goals and 10 assists in 22 gp (9 game point streak now)
Street-3rd in Ahl goal scoring 14 goals and 10 assists in 20 games
Billins-tied for 1st in points for defencemen 23 in 23 games
Ortio- 11-1 with .924 save pct.
Reinhart-15 pts in 21 games
Hanowski-20 pts in 26 games
Knight-18 pts in 27 games
If half of those players end up as NHL regulars it would be amazing. Most of them won't, I don't think we undervalue our prospects, we have a lot of meh in the system.
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From what I saw of these guys back in July, what they have been doing in the AHL is not really surprising to me. We have a lot of quality 3rd and 4th line players in the A right now. That is quality 3rd/4th liners on a good team, not 3rd/4th liners on the Flames right now.
I could easily see each of Hanowski, Reinhart, Ferland, Knight, Ortio, and Granlund getting call ups in the near future, especially if guys like Cammalleri Stempniak and Stajan get dealt.
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It is a bit unusual, but the Flames are excessively deep in really good young 3rd and 4th line types. Especially once guys like Arnold, Agostino, Harrison, and Coda Gordon come up to the AHL level. That's the main reason why I did not mind the Smid trade as we did lose one of those guys in Horak, but we have a dozen other guys almost that are of a similar calibre give or take.
The main area the Flames are lacking is high end skill both up front and on the defense.
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There is a bit of skill coming next year with Gaudreau and possibly Poirier playing for the Heat. Add that to the Flames Monahan and possibly Baertschi if he develops and its a start. I'd also say that Brodie and Russell are pretty good skill guys on defense. Don't know if you could consider Billins to be a skill guy as I haven't seen much of him.
When St. John won the AHL title with a pretty young team only a few went on to have good NHL careers. Chris Clark, Steve Begin, Blair Betts, and Steve Montador were the best of the lot. Danny Sabourin got some time as a back up. Guys that looked good but never really made it are Marty Murray (too small), Rico Fata, Sergei Varlamov, Daniel Tkaczuk (concussions) and Mickey Dupont (too small).That's not to say Heat players will have better luck or not. That's the fun of following prospects, we never know what will happen.
This is going to be an interesting year. Do we trade a lot of our vets to open spots for our prospects or do we continue on with a slow graduation rate. In baseball one year the Baltimore Orioles brought up the whole infield (7 rookies) and a couple of pitchers from their Vancouver AAA club and started a dynasty.
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I would be interested to see where Ferlands skating is at now, because last year in Saskatoon it was just simply not good. I know a few of the people on the Blades training staff and they told me that they had never seen a player more determined to improve than Ferland. After his slow start this year I was pretty worried, but it seems like he has turned it around with that hot play on Jones' line.
I really doubt that his foot speed will ever be good enough for top 6 minutes in the NHL though. At least not on a playoff caliber team. Either way from my interactions with this kid he has a great head on his shoulders and is very humble, while aware of his gifts (size, grit, toughness). If he keeps using them right you never know.
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When St. John won the AHL title with a pretty young team only a few went on to have good NHL careers. Chris Clark, Steve Begin, Blair Betts, and Steve Montador were the best of the lot. Danny Sabourin got some time as a back up. Guys that looked good but never really made it are Marty Murray (too small), Rico Fata, Sergei Varlamov, Daniel Tkaczuk (concussions) and Mickey Dupont (too small).That's not to say Heat players will have better luck or not. That's the fun of following prospects, we never know what will happen.
Once you hit 23-24 you aren't really a prospect anymore. When you look at that Saint John team - they really had Fata, Varlamov, Tkchuck who were prospects and producing. If you're 24 and in the AHL... you're likely no going to be more than a depth guy in an organization. Guys like Ben Street, Billins and Blair Jones fit that profile on the Heat now. The guys like Ferland, Granlund, Hanowski and Knight are the ones who could end up being full time NHLers.
Once you hit 23-24 you aren't really a prospect anymore. When you look at that Saint John team - they really had Fata, Varlamov, Tkchuck who were prospects and producing. If you're 24 and in the AHL... you're likely no going to be more than a depth guy in an organization. Guys like Ben Street, Billins and Blair Jones fit that profile on the Heat now. The guys like Ferland, Granlund, Hanowski and Knight are the ones who could end up being full time NHLers.
I disagree with this, depending on the circumstance. CHL impact players reach the league from 18-22, but there is a period of time when college players turn pro that is more in the 22-25 year range. Those guys (Street, Billins, Jooris, Hanowski, Olson, etc) are all considered prospects in my books. I think if you don't make the NHL out of the CHL by 24 its trouble, but not as true for college players. I don't have numbers to back this up but I give them a longer prospect leash if they take the college route.
People need to remember that although Billins is currently 24, he is still in just his 2nd year of professional hockey. IMO, he is still a legitimate prospect.
I'm just as excited as the next guy about how all these guys are doing. But we need to keep in mind that the season is young.
Last season December hit, the scoring dried up and the team imploded. So we'll see if this current pace is the pace for the season. With that said though, the core is drastically different than the group that was here last season, so in that sense I'm excited about how this team can do in the new year.
I'm just as excited as the next guy about how all these guys are doing. But we need to keep in mind that the season is young.
Last season December hit, the scoring dried up and the team imploded. So we'll see if this current pace is the pace for the season. With that said though, the core is drastically different than the group that was here last season, so in that sense I'm excited about how this team can do in the new year.
Last year's dominance was all Baertschi. When he left, so did the Heat offence.
The thing I notice about the Heat is that the Flames have had a different construction of the team over the last three years. Ward's first year as coach had a veteran-heavy line-up with a handful of 2008 and 2009 picks as youth. Then the 2010 players turned pro last year and the group got a bit younger but kept some vets. This year, they have the 2011 and 2012 draft picks, the maturing 2010 players and the assets they got for flipping some of their existing youngsters (and veterans).
It's a definite progression, and I'm not unconvinced that a plan wasn't involved.
Considering the Heat are Tops in the AHL are we undervaluing our prospects?
