Calgary Real Estate predictions?

[Sylvanfan]

Originally Posted by chemgear

Hopefully prices don't go to zero (or we'll have many more problems than just housing.)

But housing prices in Calgary are already down nearly $20,000 from just last month. Guessing prices probably reach even closer to 5% down when July finally ends. Inventory is still massive, sales numbers continue to wither and there is still lots more room to increase interest rates. Personally I am seeing a lot more downside than upside. Actually, I'm having a hard time seeing any upside to be honest.

The 5% in a month pace is probably not good - first time homebuyers are almost instantly underwater. Realtor/moving fees aside if they had to sell for some reason down the road.

(BTW, natural gas prices have been down more than 10% the whole time it was mentioned previously in this thread. Inventory there is also massive.)

Well I did committ economic suicide and bought a house here last week. Although in my defence.....

I'm going into it with the idea that I will not make a single dollar on the place over the next 20 years. Basically it's a place to live and my attempt to buy stability after an absolutely stupid decision two years ago to trust an untrustworthy family member and move to BC which left my unemployed and at his mercy.

I do plan to stay in that house for at least the next 10 years and probably more.

The mortgage and property taxes still come out to be $400 a month less than what a comparable rental property would be. Not to mention there is one place around here which was a half duplex where the landlord would rent to me given that I have pets and a kid. That place is in a bad location, is a poorly maintained property and would still cost me $100 a month more.

I have no other personal debt.

Ideally I would have waited another year to buy a place though, but personal circumstances did put me in a bad position. It's a bit loser-ish to make your wife and kid live with my mom and keep leaching off my cousins for that long. Sometimes you take it in the tailpipe when you make an absolutely ######ed choice like I did two years ago and you're left scrambling to try and minimize the damage.

[chemgear]

Sylvanfan, sounds like you are you going into the financial transaction with your eyes wide open (and in not bad finances either.) Also with a long term plan/view.

Regardless of my silly rambling statistical commentary, congratulations on the purchase and I hope you, your family and the pets really enjoy the new place.

Though what happened 2 years ago?

EDIT: Also noticed this over the weekend:

Vacancy rates in Calgary continue to climb amid a weak job market and a population exodus not seen in the city for decades.
Some 17,000 dwellings sit empty -- including apartments, condos, homes and duplexes -- according to the 2010 civic census.


Read more: http://www.calgaryherald.com/busines...#ixzz0umuteLWw

[cral12]

Originally Posted by amorak

I am looking for a realtor to help us find a home in the Aspen / Wentworth / Cougar Ridge(maybe) area.

Please let me know if you have a good realtor who's intimately familiar with that area.

Thanks!

I'm actually considering the same area withing next year or 2....

Any thoughts on this new development?

They state 15% off currently but not sure if actually a good "deal".

www.cougarridgelandings.com

Thanks,
-C.

[Winsor_Pilates]

More people leaving Calgary, than moving there. First time since 1992.
http://www.calgaryherald.com/news/ca...948/story.html

[Clarkey]

I just sold my house. I'm struggling with buying back into the market. There are a tonne of listings but there doesn't seem to be many good properties. It seems like there aren't many new houses being added either, just a glut of average ho hum places. I'm looking in the NW in communities along the c-train.

[Nabber]

nm

[Dan02]

Originally Posted by chemgear

Sylvanfan, sounds like you are you going into the financial transaction with your eyes wide open (and in not bad finances either.) Also with a long term plan/view.

Regardless of my silly rambling statistical commentary, congratulations on the purchase and I hope you, your family and the pets really enjoy the new place.

Though what happened 2 years ago?

EDIT: Also noticed this over the weekend:

Vacancy rates in Calgary continue to climb amid a weak job market and a population exodus not seen in the city for decades.
Some 17,000 dwellings sit empty -- including apartments, condos, homes and duplexes -- according to the 2010 civic census.

Read more: http://www.calgaryherald.com/busines...#ixzz0umuteLWw

sure 17,000 sounds like a massive number, but it's only ~5%. and lets not forget not all these properties that are empty are either for sale or for rent.

[chemgear]

Hmmm I have been hearing the term "pent-up demand" for months now. I'm guessing this would be a massive "pent-up supply" that isn't necessarily on MLS?

If vacancy is high, rent costs continuing to drop, inventory building up like crazy and the visibility of housing prices going down quickly, I'm guessing that's even more downward pressure in the near term for sure. I don't have a feel for the sensitivity of vacancy rates, but by the same token, housing prices are "just" down 5%.

[chemgear]

Here is another good site for Vancouver/Fraser Valley numbers:

http://www.robchipman.net/chipmans-b...estate-numbers

Looks like they're in a similiar situation as Calgary (funny how it's supposed to be different here and there.) Anyhow, list-to-sales price is down 2-3% pretty consistently and inventory is actually closer to 8 months. Glancing at the numbers it looks like it's also translating to similiar price drops week-to-week/month-to-month.

I wonder how long before the mainstream media picks up on the story (I assume when the respective real estate boards put out their month numbers.) It's not going to go over well when people realize first time home buyers are essentially wiping out their entire downpayment and underwater in just a month's time.

Keeping in mind of course that the usual first time home buying downpayment of 5% down means what, 2.75% in CMHC fees? After realtor fees, these buyers couldn't even pay off their mortgage if they tried to sell their house after a month. This isn't going to be pretty.

[Khel]

I've been looking in SE Calgary for the last 3 months, small townhouse, house or something, and it's both slow, with very few new listings, and all the current listings are just sitting there, with multiple price drops on them.

I've been pre approved with a decent rate until Sept 15 or so, but wondering 1) Am I gonna find something with so few new listings coming on, or 2) do I take the higher interest rate, and maybe lower price?

Got the cash for 10% down on around 300K purchase, but this market is weird..

[Slava]

Have you sold your house chemgear? How long did it take?

I can only assume that a guy who is as pessimistic as you has taken your money out and has it safely stowed to take advantage of things when they bottom?

[chemgear]

Good heavens I do sound like a chicken little sometimes don't I?

I haven't sold the investment property - it's not just my call to make alone. The partners feels a strong desire to hold on to it. It's been renting fine for years and our initial investment was quite a few years back. So the initial investment was pretty minimal as well (let alone divided up.)

If I could, I'd would have liked to sold it last year but I think prices would have to drop about 50-60% for that property to be underwater. I keep my eye out to perhaps buy a larger home, but for obvious reasons I'm not exactly in a rush.

That and I have a lot of Starcraft II to play.

[kevman]

Originally Posted by Slava

Have you sold your house chemgear? How long did it take?

I can only assume that a guy who is as pessimistic as you has taken your money out and has it safely stowed to take advantage of things when they bottom?

Funny, as someone who is hoping to buy a house soon, I find his posts very optimistic.

Come on housing market crash!

[Winsor_Pilates]

Originally Posted by chemgear

I wonder how long before the mainstream media picks up on the story (I assume when the respective real estate boards put out their month numbers.) It's not going to go over well when people realize first time home buyers are essentially wiping out their entire downpayment and underwater in just a month's time.

Keeping in mind of course that the usual first time home buying downpayment of 5% down means what, 2.75% in CMHC fees? After realtor fees, these buyers couldn't even pay off their mortgage if they tried to sell their house after a month. This isn't going to be pretty.

Do you believe everything that you write?
How are buyers underwater in 1 month? Did they all buy last month, and are selling only 1 month later? Aren't they allowed to live in the home and hold off selling for months, years, decades?

What if by October, they're back up to where values were last month? What if they don't sell their home until 2035?

All of your arguments are based on the pretense that everyone bought at the highest price, and sells at the lowest. No investment in the world can make sense looking at it like that.

[chemgear]

LOL, no no, not ALL first time home buyers. First time home buyers that happened to buy last month/go forward basis theoretically speaking.

If you take that segment of the market and look at the market and see that prices came down 3-5% in the span of a month - why would you buy a place especially if you only have 5% down? If you were to look at the numbers of this month to last month - I would hazard to guess that you wouldn't be overly motivated to buy and essentially have your downpayment completely wiped out so quickly even if it is just on paper. (Though I guess you could low ball something like 20%)

You're right, these same people can certainly hold onto new purchase for 25 years and be out ahead. But I'm guessing that the fact prices are coming down means people are going to be a lot more gun shy going forward. Why buy and hold 25 years when you can wait a month (or more) to see if prices drop more . . . and then hold for 25 years.

I'm a little confused, all of my arguments based on buying at the peak? I'm looking at the prospect of first timers buying say this month or next/this instant.

Not sure if I'm putting this down correctly, I'm typing as I Starcraft hehe.


EDIT: Woot! done another mission. Wait, you think prices are going up 5% by October?

[Bertuzzied]

So i was talking with a realtor today. She said that normally Calgary's inventory turnover for a month is at around 30%. In June she said it was 3%. There must be some pretty desperate realtors out there.

[V]

Originally Posted by chemgear

Good heavens I do sound like a chicken little sometimes don't I?

Not really. You sound like 1 of 2 things:

1) A liar that is trying to misrepresent his position.

2) A masochist. No one normal prognosticates the fact that they're going to lose 50 grand in a month, then loses 50 grand in a month and is happy about losing 50 grand in a month.

I'm not sure which one it is, but I'm leaning towards 1.

[pepper24]

I still think that housing prices are going to continue to drop. The party driven by low interest rates is coming to an end. The bubble is bursting and will continue to do so.

[pepper24]

Originally Posted by Winsor_Pilates

Do you believe everything that you write?
How are buyers underwater in 1 month? Did they all buy last month, and are selling only 1 month later? Aren't they allowed to live in the home and hold off selling for months, years, decades?

What if by October, they're back up to where values were last month? What if they don't sell their home until 2035?

All of your arguments are based on the pretense that everyone bought at the highest price, and sells at the lowest. No investment in the world can make sense looking at it like that.

If you sell high, your next place is high. If you sell low, your next place is low. Net sum game technically assuming you need a place to live. Add in real estate costs, up-keep, property taxes, compound interest over amortization etc. and it's a negative game.

That's why I cringe when people say that buying a home is a great investment. It's a necessity and an investment in your lifestyle but financially there are much better investments.

[calculoso]

Originally Posted by pepper24

If you sell high, your next place is high. If you sell low, your next place is low. Net sum game technically assuming you need a place to live. Add in real estate costs, up-keep, property taxes, compound interest over amortization etc. and it's a negative game.

That's why I cringe when people say that buying a home is a great investment. It's a necessity and an investment in your lifestyle but financially there are much better investments.

Not sure I agree with that. There aren't too many investments that I could own worth over half a million dollars already...