Stocks - The Best Buys 2

[Krovikan]

Originally Posted by jayswin

What is everyone's thoughts on Air Canada at $20 with the likelihood of coming out of the pandemic in the upcoming year? I have this feeling that once the front line workers and highest risk citizens are vaccinated we're going to see a quicker return to normal plus an explosion of people trying to travel after being couped up for over a year.

I personally took a long position at $16 with AC, planning on keeping it until the pandemic is over.

Sent from my Pixel 5 using Tapatalk

[Leondros]

Originally Posted by jayswin

What is everyone's thoughts on Air Canada at $20 with the likelihood of coming out of the pandemic in the upcoming year? I have this feeling that once the front line workers and highest risk citizens are vaccinated we're going to see a quicker return to normal plus an explosion of people trying to travel after being couped up for over a year.

I went the opposite and shorted at $21.50.

Reasoning is as follows:

- I think people are still going to be leery of travel for the next little bit and vaccination from a logistical stand point is going to take longer than people expect
- Air Canada has over $2.3B of pre sold flights at Q3 2020. That is going to be an absolute massive chunk of vouchers and credits to eat their way through in 2021.
- Their projected cash burn rate is $7 - $9M per day which is roughly $750M per quarter in just cash burn. If vaccines take 9 months to get implemented and put people at ease for travelling, thats almost $2B.
- Any bail out is going to require Air Canada to settle out all of travel vouchers per the federal government. That is going to make any bail out very unattractive as whats the point of paying out money just to accept a bail out.
- AC has added roughly $4B in long term debt since YE.
- Business travel is their largest market - specifically international business travel and their can be long term implications associated with executive teams realizing their people can get stuff done without paying $5K for a first class tickets from YYC to London or Toronto to Bogota.

I think Air Canada will be okay, but its going to be rockier than most realize.

[DoubleK]

Originally Posted by burn_this_city

I'm just buying SPY with my kid's RESP

Today was weird. Super low volume and a really late move.

What happened to buy the dip?

[Snuffleupagus]

Originally Posted by jayswin

What is everyone's thoughts on Air Canada at $20 with the likelihood of coming out of the pandemic in the upcoming year? I have this feeling that once the front line workers and highest risk citizens are vaccinated we're going to see a quicker return to normal plus an explosion of people trying to travel after being couped up for over a year.

I think it'll take at least year or so but it'll likely gain 40-50%(just my amateur opinion) I bought some last month when it dipped under $15 in the hopes of doing a double around Christmas 2021, I'm strongly thinking of buying more.

[Johnny199r]

The market has been on fire lately and analysts are unanimously predicting a bull market for next year. Thoughts?

I've deployed a fair bit of capital lately. I'm going to continue with that trend.

[DoubleK]

Doesn't December normally see large rebalancing flows in pension and asset allocation funds?

I'd think some of those would be way out of whack with the huge run in equities.

[skudr248]

Went all in during April/May.. think I literally have 98 percent of all my money in the stock market lol. The swings are insane at times but overall up ~50 percent or so and expect much more growth in depressed stocks that I hold (PPL, ENB etc.) which I have been buying more and more off during the last 2 months

[Manhattanboy]

Canadian banks have been on fire the last three weeks.

Unfortunately I am way too heavy cash right now. Waiting for a decent pull back which of course may never come.

As for rebalancing in December, JP Morgan put out a letter to investors suggesting a market pullback as a result.

[Johnny199r]

Originally Posted by Manhattanboy

Canadian banks have been on fire the last three weeks.

Unfortunately I am way too heavy cash right now. Waiting for a decent pull back which of course may never come.

As for rebalancing in December, JP Morgan put out a letter to investors suggesting a market pullback as a result.

I remind myself all the time "time in the market beats timing the market" But I dont listen to myself, even though I know it's true.

I didnt put much money in during the spring/summer/fall when I should have. I was waiting for the "pullback". Even if there is a pullback, can I recognize it? Will I try to wait for the bottom and miss it? February had a huge pullback, did I put my money in then? Of course not, I was stupid and wanted to wait for "the bottom".

I'd rather just put my money in and at worst, collect all those dividends, even if I buy during a bad time. Overall in 20 or 30 years, it's not going to matter when I bought.

[Leondros]

Originally Posted by Johnny199r

I remind myself all the time "time in the market beats timing the market" But I dont listen to myself, even though I know it's true.

I didnt put much money in during the spring/summer/fall when I should have. I was waiting for the "pullback". Even if there is a pullback, can I recognize it? Will I try to wait for the bottom and miss it? February had a huge pullback, did I put my money in then? Of course not, I was stupid and wanted to wait for "the bottom".

I'd rather just put my money in and at worst, collect all those dividends, even if I buy during a bad time. Overall in 20 or 30 years, it's not going to matter when I bought.

I have been pretty lucky in the timing and got out of everything I held last week with the exception of banks, pipelines, oil and gas and gold. Gold has plummeted but I still think gold is going to have a huge run in 2021 and beyond so have been loading up. FIE is paying a great dividend and my cost base was 5.30. Enbridge has been hammered but inter pipeline has been fine. They will come back. XGD which is the Canadian gold etf is at a good price point in my point and at 1,800 an ounce those companies will be doing very well. Issue with canadian mining companies has always been the cost controlling - similar to oil and gas. These commodity companies are awful at controlling costs when they don’t need to.

[Krovikan]

These markets are insane over 10% gain just today, and I had just moved to around 33% cash a week ago. Plus, I don't think the gains are done as Eth 2.0 staking just trigger and Ethereum seems to have finally gained some movement in its price, based on pre-crash I estimate that Eth should be valued over 1k right now, but it's been stuck sub-600. Hopefully, Eth 2.0 continues this upward moment.

I plan on selling a couple of positions before the end of the year and taking some profit from my ETHC position, but I'm on track to have more cash than my entire TSFA value at the beginning of the year... But the way that things have gone this year, I could easily see a drop.

[skudr248]

Originally Posted by Leondros

I have been pretty lucky in the timing and got out of everything I held last week with the exception of banks, pipelines, oil and gas and gold. Gold has plummeted but I still think gold is going to have a huge run in 2021 and beyond so have been loading up. FIE is paying a great dividend and my cost base was 5.30. Enbridge has been hammered but inter pipeline has been fine. They will come back. XGD which is the Canadian gold etf is at a good price point in my point and at 1,800 an ounce those companies will be doing very well. Issue with canadian mining companies has always been the cost controlling - similar to oil and gas. These commodity companies are awful at controlling costs when they don’t need to.

ENB just crossed into bull run territory IMHO... it's my biggest holding now after buying a crap ton just before the election.

[indes]

Cineplex has been killing it for me since the vaccine news. Up 64%

[MJK]

Buckle Up! Looks like another nice day coming and weed stocks so far the big winner with Trump giving up.

ACB up 30% premarket!

[Table 5]

I'm not sure to be happy or frightened of all these gains. I'm much more comfortable when my stocks are middling, because then I know they reflect the true reality of my investing skills.

[Johnny199r]

Originally Posted by Table 5

I'm not sure to be happy or frightened of all these gains. I'm much more comfortable when my stocks are middling, because then I know they reflect the true reality of my investing skills.

volatility seems to be the new normal.

[burn_this_city]

SPY with a big rise today on half of normal volume. Inflows were highest last week in ages, wondering if we aren't near a short term top. I'm pretty sketched out about what December looks like, but if the market keeps ignoring COVID shutdowns it could just level off or return to a more normal trading pattern.

[Leondros]

Originally Posted by Table 5

I'm not sure to be happy or frightened of all these gains. I'm much more comfortable when my stocks are middling, because then I know they reflect the true reality of my investing skills.

Agreed - its terrifying to see the gains in my portfolio. I really try to take the emotion out of investing but its hard not to get addicted and FOMO of the gains I'm seeing. My buddies and I are really struggling on when to take gains and be okay with seeing this rising more and more. As background we are all CPAs, CFAs or both.

I know Canadian banks and gold are going to have a good 2021 beyond, but I can't comment on anything else at this point. For the record I have lost big on Tesla shorts, and that's about it because seemingly nothing is going down at this point. There is just so much stimulus going into the market that its hard to even value on fundamentals as the goal posts are moving big time.

[Leondros]

Originally Posted by burn_this_city

SPY with a big rise today on half of normal volume. Inflows were highest last week in ages, wondering if we aren't near a short term top. I'm pretty sketched out about what December looks like, but if the market keeps ignoring COVID shutdowns it could just level off or return to a more normal trading pattern.

What is a normal trading pattern when there are billions and billions of extra cash in the system compared to pre COVID? Thats what I struggle with. Most stocks are above pre COVID levels but REITS and Energy continue to be significantly lower than their exits at Feb 2020.

[Slava]

Originally Posted by Leondros

What is a normal trading pattern when there are billions and billions of extra cash in the system compared to pre COVID? Thats what I struggle with. Most stocks are above pre COVID levels but REITS and Energy continue to be significantly lower than their exits at Feb 2020.

First and foremost I wish I could participate more in this thread!

But I wanted to comment about the amount of stimulus and the current markets. I think we’re going to see a pretty incredible run here; there are trillions at work already and we’re seemingly on the verge of a $2T injection in the US on top of that. Then you have the positive vaccine news, which lends a huge amount of optimism to this scenario. When you combine this, in my opinion, you get a melt-up.

Earlier this year, I would joke that we had the S&P 10 and the S&P 490 because ten companies recovered and looked decent and the rest were still way off their highs. What’s happened in November is that those 10 have come back and the 490 are recovering. I don’t think it’s cause for concern when you consider that. Of course, it depends on how you’ve built your portfolio and note that I’m not serious that it’s all 490. I can’t talk about specific names here, but suffice it to say that you could have had yourself an amazing November and still not be too concerned about over valuation.

I’m a firm believer that when people look back at some of the gains on November 9th, they’re going to be astounded. It’s been a remarkable year for a lot of reasons, but that day was particularly unbelievable.