The Matthew Tkachuk contract negotiations

[GioforPM]

Originally Posted by ricardodw

That buys a lot of franchise ruining risk coverage.

signing for 4 by 6 turns into a 8x8 with a 4x10 added on at the end of the 4 x6

That would be fine if Tkachuk replaces Gio , Gaudreau and Monahan as the best players on the team and play a big role in 3-4 playoff series wins.

If 2018-19 was a career year and Tkachuk is actually a 40-50 pt player that he was before the Flames miracle regular season then the 4x6 turns into a 34M over 5 years and he is on the UFA market with with little chance of a 8M+ contract. That is the same time frame that Aho becomes a UFA.


I will try to put a perspective on the situation is that the Flames are in:

289 goals are the 8th highest goals scored by any NHL team since the 1998-99 season.

Only 19 teams over the last 20 years have scored 275 or more goals in a season.

TB has done it in back to back seasons 2017-18 (290), 2018-19 (317) and Ottawa 2005-06 (312) 2006-07 (286) as has Buffalo 2005-06 (276) 2006-07 (298)


The odds are overwhelming against the Flames putting up 275 goals this coming season. Not a lot of scoring numbers are going to go up a significant amount.

Last year the Flames bought low... they signed Hanifin 6x 4.95 2 ufa yrs and Lindholm 6x4.85 4 UFA years.

Had Lindholm signed a 3 yr rather than a 2 year RFA contact with Carolina would have last season moved him into a 8x8?

Signing Tkachuk to a 8+ x 8 yrs has a good chance of the Flames buying high.

EW hockey has the 2 year contract estimates a 5.37

The Flames also finished top 3rd in the league in GA, and only Tampa was in their league for differential. If the Flames score as much as 20 goals fewer they'd have still finished 2nd in differential behind TB.

[Corral]

Originally Posted by GioforPM

I'd be shocked if Tre said anything like that out loud.

That said, I think the cap percentage isn't the issue between players on the same team. I think that the players get that the percentage at the time of signing is the issue intellectually. On the other hand, they are human and I would imagine it rankles a bit to see a younger, less experienced and possibly less talented player get paid more than you. Not paid more because they play in a different era, paid more because they signed three years later. Gio, I'm not worried about - he's a vet who's been all over the depth chart so I'd think he's well-centred. Johnny, though, I could see thinking "I'm the best forward on this team, I should make the most". Not vocally, just a nagging thought.

This exactly is my guess as to why this contract negotiation moves into hold out territory next month. Tkachuk has done nothing to earn the highest paid player on this team, and as far as i can remember the Flames have always maintained an 'internal cap' of some sort. Right now the Flames are Johnny Gaudreau's team - points, allstar appearances, media coverage, ticket sales, jersey sales etc etc - and he deserves to be the highest paid guy on the roster.

[The Cobra]

Originally Posted by ricardodw

That buys a lot of franchise ruining risk coverage.

signing for 4 by 6 turns into a 8x8 with a 4x10 added on at the end of the 4 x6

If Tkachuk signed a 4-year contract at $6M (or whatever number), he'd be looking at an 8-year deal when that contract was up. That would be his only incentive to accepting a 4-year deal with a lower AAV.

[GreenLantern2814]

Let's also not forget that Timo Meier plays in San Jose. San Jose can afford to get cute and go shorter term on a player like that, because he's not going anywhere. The last player I can recall San Jose 'losing' is Brian Campbell. Everyone else stays.

The Sharks are, to my mind, the best organization in the sport. They've finished lower than 3rd in the division only twice this century. Playoffs in 21 of 27 years. The Sharks have made it to round 2 more often than they've lost in round 1 FFS.

These are how the Sharks playoff appearances break down:

7 1st round exits
9 2nd round exits
4 3rd round exits
1 4th round exit

For comparison, since the Sharks have been in the league, here's what the Flames have done:

9 1st round exits
2 2nd round exits
1 4th round exit

The only way Timo Meier isn't a Shark in four years is if the Sharks don't want him.

[BACKCHECK!!!]

Originally Posted by ricardodw

That buys a lot of franchise ruining risk coverage.

signing for 4 by 6 turns into a 8x8 with a 4x10 added on at the end of the 4 x6

That would be fine if Tkachuk replaces Gio , Gaudreau and Monahan as the best players on the team and play a big role in 3-4 playoff series wins.

If 2018-19 was a career year and Tkachuk is actually a 40-50 pt player that he was before the Flames miracle regular season then the 4x6 turns into a 34M over 5 years and he is on the UFA market with with little chance of a 8M+ contract. That is the same time frame that Aho becomes a UFA.


I will try to put a perspective on the situation is that the Flames are in:

289 goals are the 8th highest goals scored by any NHL team since the 1998-99 season.

Only 19 teams over the last 20 years have scored 275 or more goals in a season.

TB has done it in back to back seasons 2017-18 (290), 2018-19 (317) and Ottawa 2005-06 (312) 2006-07 (286) as has Buffalo 2005-06 (276) 2006-07 (298)


The odds are overwhelming against the Flames putting up 275 goals this coming season. Not a lot of scoring numbers are going to go up a significant amount.

Last year the Flames bought low... they signed Hanifin 6x 4.95 2 ufa yrs and Lindholm 6x4.85 4 UFA years.

Had Lindholm signed a 3 yr rather than a 2 year RFA contact with Carolina would have last season moved him into a 8x8?

Signing Tkachuk to a 8+ x 8 yrs has a good chance of the Flames buying high.

EW hockey has the 2 year contract estimates a 5.37

I actually agree with ricardodw.

Possibly for the first time ever.

[cowtown75]

Originally Posted by Textcritic

Isn't it seven-years? Tkachuk has already played three. I think five years buys one year of UFA, no?

A player who is no longer considered to be entry-level, but does not qualify as an unrestricted free agent, becomes a restricted free agent when his contract expires. A player may only declare himself to be an unrestricted free agent if he is over the age of 27 or has played in the league for a minimum of 7 years.

[Flash Walken]

Originally Posted by GreenLantern2814

Let's also not forget that Timo Meier plays in San Jose. San Jose can afford to get cute and go shorter term on a player like that, because he's not going anywhere. The last player I can recall San Jose 'losing' is Brian Campbell. Everyone else stays.

The Sharks are, to my mind, the best organization in the sport. They've finished lower than 3rd in the division only twice this century. Playoffs in 21 of 27 years. The Sharks have made it to round 2 more often than they've lost in round 1 FFS.

These are how the Sharks playoff appearances break down:

7 1st round exits
9 2nd round exits
4 3rd round exits
1 4th round exit

For comparison, since the Sharks have been in the league, here's what the Flames have done:

9 1st round exits
2 2nd round exits
1 4th round exit

The only way Timo Meier isn't a Shark in four years is if the Sharks don't want him.

Pavelski and Donskoi just walked.

Marleau walked.

I agree with your sentiment somewhat, but a reason they can say goodbye to these players is they keep drafting Timo Meiers', Kevin Lebancs and Tomas Hertls.

Between 2006 and 2016:

Sharks: 6800 man games
Flames: 4867 man games

When you're drafting like that you can afford to both lose players as well as trade for better ones.

San Jose has a geographic advantage towards signing free agents but they also do a much better job of grabbing players from the draft.

[GioforPM]

Originally Posted by Flash Walken

Pavelski just walked.

Marleau walked.

I agree with your sentiment somewhat, but a reason they can say goodbye to these players is they keep drafting Timo Meiers', Kevin Lebancs and Tomas Hertls.

Between 2006 and 2016:

Sharks: 6800 man games
Flames: 4867 man games

When you're drafting like that you can afford to both lose players as well as trade for better ones.

San Jose has a geographic advantage towards signing free agents but they also do a much better job of grabbing players from the draft.

Pavelski and Marleau "walked" because SJ didn't overpay them. SJ offered Marleau what he was worth. Toronto (and others) offered more than his value.

[The Cobra]

I've also noticed that San Jose doesn't waste any money on Stanley Cup parades.

[GreenLantern2814]

Originally Posted by The Cobra

I've also noticed that San Jose doesn't waste any money on Stanley Cup parades.

You wouldn't take 15 trips to the 2nd round and beyond over the last 27 years?

[GreenLantern2814]

Originally Posted by Flash Walken

Pavelski and Donskoi just walked.

Marleau walked.

I agree with your sentiment somewhat, but a reason they can say goodbye to these players is they keep drafting Timo Meiers', Kevin Lebancs and Tomas Hertls.

Between 2006 and 2016:

Sharks: 6800 man games
Flames: 4867 man games

When you're drafting like that you can afford to both lose players as well as trade for better ones.

San Jose has a geographic advantage towards signing free agents but they also do a much better job of grabbing players from the draft.

Marleau was 36. Pavelski was 34 and coming off a broken face. Donskoi is a Frolik level player.

If Johnny Gaudreau were a Shark, there would be no anxiety about him going to the Flyers when he's 28. He would be a Shark for life.

Players don't leave San Jose. San Jose leaves them.

[GioforPM]

Originally Posted by GreenLantern2814

Marleau was 36. Pavelski was 34 and coming off a broken face. Donskoi is a Frolik level player.

If Johnny Gaudreau were a Shark, there would be no anxiety about him going to the Flyers when he's 28. He would be a Shark for life.

Players don't leave San Jose. San Jose leaves them.

Agreed. SJ is just polite enough to make a token offer on the way out.

[Flash Walken]

Originally Posted by GreenLantern2814

Marleau was 36. Pavelski was 34 and coming off a broken face. Donskoi is a Frolik level player.

If Johnny Gaudreau were a Shark, there would be no anxiety about him going to the Flyers when he's 28. He would be a Shark for life.

Players don't leave San Jose. San Jose leaves them.

I agree, they have an advantage being a top 5 or 10 market compared to Calgary being a bottom 5 or 10 market.

[Geeoff]

Originally Posted by ricardodw

That buys a lot of franchise ruining risk coverage.

signing for 4 by 6 turns into a 8x8 with a 4x10 added on at the end of the 4 x6

That would be fine if Tkachuk replaces Gio , Gaudreau and Monahan as the best players on the team and play a big role in 3-4 playoff series wins.

If 2018-19 was a career year and Tkachuk is actually a 40-50 pt player that he was before the Flames miracle regular season then the 4x6 turns into a 34M over 5 years and he is on the UFA market with with little chance of a 8M+ contract. That is the same time frame that Aho becomes a UFA.


I will try to put a perspective on the situation is that the Flames are in:

289 goals are the 8th highest goals scored by any NHL team since the 1998-99 season.

Only 19 teams over the last 20 years have scored 275 or more goals in a season.

TB has done it in back to back seasons 2017-18 (290), 2018-19 (317) and Ottawa 2005-06 (312) 2006-07 (286) as has Buffalo 2005-06 (276) 2006-07 (298)


The odds are overwhelming against the Flames putting up 275 goals this coming season. Not a lot of scoring numbers are going to go up a significant amount.

Last year the Flames bought low... they signed Hanifin 6x 4.95 2 ufa yrs and Lindholm 6x4.85 4 UFA years.

Had Lindholm signed a 3 yr rather than a 2 year RFA contact with Carolina would have last season moved him into a 8x8?

Signing Tkachuk to a 8+ x 8 yrs has a good chance of the Flames buying high.

EW hockey has the 2 year contract estimates a 5.37

Signing star RFAs to long-term deals usually works out in the team's favor.


It's not that risky IMO


Also, 4x6 and 2x5.37 are pipe dreams.

[Textcritic]

Originally Posted by ricardodw

I will try to put a perspective on the situation is that the Flames are in:

289 goals are the 8th highest goals scored by any NHL team since the 1998-99 season.

Only 19 teams over the last 20 years have scored 275 or more goals in a season.

TB has done it in back to back seasons 2017-18 (290), 2018-19 (317) and Ottawa 2005-06 (312) 2006-07 (286) as has Buffalo 2005-06 (276) 2006-07 (298)


The odds are overwhelming against the Flames putting up 275 goals this coming season. Not a lot of scoring numbers are going to go up a significant amount.

Last year the Flames bought low... they signed Hanifin 6x 4.95 2 ufa yrs and Lindholm 6x4.85 4 UFA years.

Had Lindholm signed a 3 yr rather than a 2 year RFA contact with Carolina would have last season moved him into a 8x8?

Signing Tkachuk to a 8+ x 8 yrs has a good chance of the Flames buying high.

EW hockey has the 2 year contract estimates a 5.37

Why do the Flames need to score +275 goals this season? You yourself noted that it is an especially rare accomplishment—I don't see why it would make-or-break the Flames given that almost every NHL team fails to hit that number every year.

What am I missing?

[Textcritic]

Originally Posted by GioforPM

The Flames also finished top 3rd in the league in GA, and only Tampa was in their league for differential. If the Flames score as much as 20 goals fewer they'd have still finished 2nd in differential behind TB.

They would also have finished still well within the top-ten in team scoring.

[Vinny01]

Originally Posted by GreenLantern2814

You wouldn't take 15 trips to the 2nd round and beyond over the last 27 years?

Does it take away our Cup? Is that the trade?

[BACKCHECK!!!]

I think Tkachuk is probably the second slowest forward on the team, behind only Lucic.

I think it's questionable whether he's even the most effective player on his own line... which is the second line.

He put up an impressive goal total on a team that posted a record number of goals, and I think it's reasonable to question whether we can expect him to consistently repeat that production.

So I think there is significant risk in giving him the biggest contract in franchise history, and paying him to be one of the top 20 players in the league.

[The Cobra]

Originally Posted by Textcritic

Why do the Flames need to score +275 goals this season? You yourself noted that it is an especially rare accomplishment—I don't see why it would make-or-break the Flames given that almost every NHL team fails to hit that number every year.

What am I missing?

You are missing that they don't have elite goaltending.

[The Cobra]

Originally Posted by GreenLantern2814

You wouldn't take 15 trips to the 2nd round and beyond over the last 27 years?

Not at the cost of zero Stanley Cups.