The Tesla Thread

[GreenLantern2814]

Originally Posted by I-Hate-Hulse

Sounds like you are not a user of Car2Go. Hiding cars is one of the most frustrating things about the service. You walk up to it and the car is not there.

Sad thing is it works - I refuse to go for cars in any of the city parkades. There's nothing more frustrating that having to walk P1-P8 looking for a damn car when it should be on P1 in the designated area.

https://www.reddit.com/r/Calgary/com...r2go_vehicles/

Sounds like this is a Car2Go problem, not a Tesla one.

[chemgear]

Originally Posted by woob

Wow, who knew people got so negative over Tesla? I think it's exciting to watch this new era come alive in my lifetime.

I, for one welcome our new robotic overlord masters.

[I-Hate-Hulse]

Originally Posted by GreenLantern2814

Sounds like this is a Car2Go problem, not a Tesla one.

Actually it's an electric vehicle problem, not a Tesla one:

http://www.nytimes.com/2015/10/11/sc...-fly.html?_r=0

The bad moods stem from the challenges drivers face finding recharging spots for their battery-powered cars. Unlike gas stations, charging stations are not yet in great supply, and that has led to sharp-elbowed competition. Electric-vehicle owners are unplugging one another’s cars, trading insults, and creating black markets and side deals to trade spots in corporate parking lots. The too-few-outlets problem is a familiar one in crowded cafes and airports, where people want to charge their phones or laptops. But the need can be more acute with cars — will their owners have enough juice to make it home? — and manners often go out the window.

In the moments after Don Han plugged in his Nissan Leaf at a public charging station near his Silicon Valley office one day this summer, he noticed another Leaf pull up as he was walking away. The driver got out and pulled the charger out of Mr. Han’s car and started to plug it into his own. Mr. Han stormed back.

Jamie Hull, who drives an electric Fiat, grew apoplectic recently when she discovered herself nearly out of a charge, unable to get home to Palo Alto. She found a charging station, but a Tesla was parked in it and not charging. She ordered a coffee, waited for the driver to return and, when he did, asked why he was taking a spot when he was not charging. She said the man had told her that he was going to run one more errand and walked off.

“I seriously considered keying his car,” she said.

It will be a very long while until there are enough charging stations to satisfy everyone.

[Lanny_McDonald]

The silver bullet for electric vehicles will not be charging stations, it will be battery capacity. There are already charging in stations that can push your battery pack to 75% capacity in minutes. The problem is that the capacity of the battery is not enough to satisfy the needs of people at that charge level. If battery capacity were to double, you have solved the problem. Fortunately there are technologies on the horizon that promise a 300% increase in storage capacity and some in development that could see a 2000% increase in storage capacity. Yes, there is technology on the horizon that could provide a battery system that could drive a Tesla from Miami, FL to Anchorage, AK on a single charge, and allow for recharging in minutes. The DoE is pushing to have this tech to market in under five years. Are we on the verge of seeing the end of the combustion engine in land based vehicles? Seems we are headed that way.

[accord1999]

Charging 75% of a 80 kWh battery in 5 minutes requires an average charging rate of 720 KW, that's a lot of high current, high voltage electricity to move, plus there'll be significant amounts of waste heat that needs to removed and li-ion batteries long generally don't last under those conditions.

And as for battery advances, they're probably #1 in terms of hype (maybe just after fusion) where new advances are announced weekly but turn out to be useless for mass production. I wouldn't expect revolution, just the standard slow evolution and iteration in other fields.

[Bill Bumface]

I just don't understand how people think this is a good looking car. The Model S looks great. The Model 3? Woof.



Looking like an Accord Crosstour is not a good thing:

[homestand]

I think if a 2000% increase in storage capacity could be realized, I would suspect that there would be a reduction in the number of on board batteries. Maybe a sweet spot of 1000 km. Reducing the number of batteries would reduce the cost and weight of a vehicle.

[4X4]

Originally Posted by peter12

Are you kidding me? Look at your car2go app during rush hour, and look at all the stashed cars. At least 100 are stashed in parkades or alleys everyday!

No problem for you, though. Cabs are always there when you need them.

[peter12]

Originally Posted by 4X4

No problem for you, though. Cabs are always there when you need them.

Still sore, hey bud.

[Lanny_McDonald]

Originally Posted by accord1999

Charging 75% of a 80 kWh battery in 5 minutes requires an average charging rate of 720 KW, that's a lot of high current, high voltage electricity to move, plus there'll be significant amounts of waste heat that needs to removed and li-ion batteries long generally don't last under those conditions.

And as for battery advances, they're probably #1 in terms of hype (maybe just after fusion) where new advances are announced weekly but turn out to be useless for mass production. I wouldn't expect revolution, just the standard slow evolution and iteration in other fields.

Yet these advancements are happening and are being patented all the time. Again, technological advancements don't come to the market as quickly as we hope, mostly because of legal implications. When they do they normally arrive with little noise because the appear to be old hat. A great example of this is solar cell technology. They have been getting better and better every year but have not got much notice because tha advancements were announced three or four years ago. Saying they are hype is ridiculous as we see the results of research in many technologies around us. You probably talk or post on one of them multiple times a day.

[burn_this_city]

I considered reserving one on Saturday night, but I don't like the shape of the car and I'm worried their production issues will delay delivery substantially. I'm also worried for $35k the car will be a shipping crate for a $30k powertrain.

[accord1999]

Originally Posted by New Era

Yet these advancements are happening and are being patented all the time. Again, technological advancements don't come to the market as quickly as we hope, mostly because of legal implications. When they do they normally arrive with little noise because the appear to be old hat. A great example of this is solar cell technology. They have been getting better and better every year but have not got much notice because tha advancements were announced three or four years ago. Saying they are hype is ridiculous as we see the results of research in many technologies around us. You probably talk or post on one of them multiple times a day.

It's rarely legal, it's far more likely that that it can't be mass produced, or they have a terrible lifespan. And because of evolution and iteration of proven tech like li-ion, even if they do arrive they end up being inferior. But's that not unusal, lots of things that are published end up being that way.

And solar cell's improvements have been mostly in production, they aren't really any more efficient in converting light to electricity and all the extremely efficient cells are far too expensive compared to cheap silicon.

[Lanny_McDonald]

Originally Posted by accord1999

It's rarely legal, it's far more likely that that it can't be mass produced, or they have a terrible lifespan. And because of evolution and iteration of proven tech like li-ion, even if they do arrive they end up being inferior. But's that not unusal, lots of things that are published end up being that way.

And solar cell's improvements have been mostly in production, they aren't really any more efficient in converting light to electricity and all the extremely efficient cells are far too expensive compared to cheap silicon.

Wow. So wrong on so many levels. In 1953 solar cells we 4.5% efficient. In 2012 they were 15% efficient. In 2015 that number has gone up to 23.5 efficient, dropping cost down to $.70 a watt from $1.30 per watt in 2012. Substantial change in a short period of time because of breakthroughs announced a few years ago. Next gen solar cells are capable of functioning at 40-50% efficiency.

http://cleantechnica.com/2014/02/06/...-panel-prices/

http://spie.org/newsroom/technical-a...survey-article

http://cleantechnica.com/2014/12/03/...record-set-46/

Same types of break throughout are happening and coming to market every day in all technological areas. Frankly, technological advances have become so common place we ignore them, kind of like how we did with the later missions to the the moon. We see them as common place rather than transformational, which is sad because it slows adoptions of things that could make a huge difference.

[accord1999]

Originally Posted by New Era

Wow. So wrong on so many levels. In 1953 solar cells we 4.5% efficient. In 2012 they were 15% efficient. In 2015 that number has gone up to 23.5 efficient, dropping cost down to $.70 a watt from $1.30 per watt in 2012. Substantial change in a short period of time because of breakthroughs announced a few years ago. Next gen solar cells are capable of functioning at 40-50% efficiency.

So 60 years to increase 3.3x is something like a 2% increase in efficiency per year, hardly a revolution. And there are no widely available solar panels at 23.5% efficiency. And the real breakthrough for cheaper production appears to be Chinese manufacturing.

And those next gen solar cells may never find a market outside of military and space applications because they're far to expensive to make vs cheap silicon.

[peter12]

Exactly. As I have said, Tesla's cars don't scale. Every car sold loses $20,000 for the company.

[corporatejay]

Originally Posted by zamler

When is that going to happen? Every Tesla you buy now has lifetime free charging.

Who is going to pay for all that electricity? Are these original Teslas going to last forever?

It's great for early adopters but energy producers are going to get their taste, and there is no way Tesla will foot that bill forever. That was my only point.

Truth is, if the price of the technology comes down (i.e. buy a car for 20k) then it won't matter.

[TorqueDog]

Originally Posted by peter12

Exactly. As I have said, Tesla's cars don't scale. Every car sold loses $20,000 for the company.

Bugatti lost money on the Veyron too. How much money does Tesla make or lose on the Model 3? Because that's the model that matters where being able to scale comes into play.

[peter12]

Originally Posted by TorqueDog

Bugatti lost money on the Veyron too. How much money does Tesla make or lose on the Model 3? Because that's the model that matters where being able to scale comes into play.

The Bugatti Veyron is a highly-specialized street car, intended far more as a technological/engineering demonstration than a mass-market car like the Model 3.

Which goes back to my skepticism regarding the hype. It has to make money or at least generate enough capital through pre-sales or projected sales to keep stockholders confidence high.

[Lanny_McDonald]

Originally Posted by accord1999

So 60 years to increase 3.3x is something like a 2% increase in efficiency per year, hardly a revolution. And there are no widely available solar panels at 23.5% efficiency. And the real breakthrough for cheaper production appears to be Chinese manufacturing.

And those next gen solar cells may never find a market outside of military and space applications because they're far to expensive to make vs cheap silicon.

Again, you're wrong. I just had solar cells installed on my house with a guarantee of revenue from the vendor for electricity I sell back to the grid, based on that exact efficiency number.

I also like how you twisted the numbers. Why don't you talk about improvements in the combustion engine while we're at it? I mean, we've only seen a 3 mph increase in efficiency in 80 years (gizmag)! There's some fancy numbers there, but true. The Model T averaged 25 mph while cafe standards are 28 mpg. Pretty stunning numbers when you look at it that way, rather than acknowledging the incredible innovation that has happened to improve gas milage. Funny how numbers can be twisted to support an argument, isn't it?

The point was that there wasn't much development in the science of solar cells from the 50s to the 2010s, but once it became an important market the innovation started happening quickly. A huge development in efficiency and reduction in cost in just three years. That is why solar power companies are popping up all over the place. There is money being made in that big ball of fire in the sky.

I must say, you are pretty certain about the viability of future solar cells. You sound almost as convincing as Thomas Watson from IBM when he was reported to have stated "I think there is a world market for maybe five computers." I would never discount the ability to mass produce something in a cost effective way, especially something that will generate power. New cells and technologies will continue to come to the market because there is a need and a demand. Bet your mortgage money on it.

[accord1999]

Originally Posted by New Era

Again, you're wrong. I just had solar cells installed on my house with a guarantee of revenue from the vendor for electricity I sell back to the grid, based on that exact efficiency number.

How do you accurately quantify that, what with solar's significant dependence on local weather conditions. If it's lower than expected, is it because the cells don't meet their ratings or because it was cloudier than normal?

I also like how you twisted the numbers.

Not really, solar cell efficiency is basically a simple number. The comparable ICE value would be the conversion ratio from gas/diesel to useful kinetic energy. I'm sure it's gone up slowly like solar over the years, but I'm not the one claiming revolutions are around the corner.

The point was that there wasn't much development in the science of solar cells from the 50s to the 2010s, but once it became an important market the innovation started happening quickly. A huge development in efficiency and reduction in cost in just three years. That is why solar power companies are popping up all over the place. There is money being made in that big ball of fire in the sky.

A lot of them going out of business as well, even a big one like SunEdison is teetering on the edge. Many German companies setup to take advantage of the German solar push have been destroyed by Chinese manufacturing.

I would never discount the ability to mass produce something in a cost effective way, especially something that will generate power.

No, but one also needs to keep in mind physics and diminishing returns. Even Moore's Law is failing.