Are tanking and blowing it up worthwhile?

[thefoss1957]

"Tanking" is NEVER worth it. Look at any of they E=NG threads to see what success "tanking" has wrought.

[Vinny01]

No it is not the path this team should be taking this is how we end up wandering the dessert for a long time. This team is likely 5-10 years away from being a contender (or doing absolutely nothing) by going back to trying to draft high and turn around a culture of losing into a culture of winning. Buffalo and Edmonton are prime examples of how long it can take or not take when you go full tank.

Teams should go into a tank build when they are an aging group that has been taking swings at winning and find their best players are in their 30’s and they have been spending picks on trying to win. The Penguins will eventually need to do this. The Flames when Iggy/Kipper were still their best players at 34/35. The end of the Sedin era Canucks. The sharks should be considering this.

I think this Flames team needs to change the mix but deliberately selling players for futures with the goal of bottoming out makes no sense for a team this young. I personally feel this current team is just grossly underperforming due to a terrible coach who is completely in over his head. I think it would be a mistake to try and do a tank build with the current roster but huge core changes are needed.

[ComixZone]

Originally Posted by thefoss1957

"Tanking" is NEVER worth it. Look at any of they E=NG threads to see what success "tanking" has wrought.

Citing Edmonton or Buffalo, two organizations who have been utterly incompetent for decades doesn’t make it not worth it.

It is worth saying that the Flames seem to be run every bit as incompetently as the Oilers and Sabres though, so yeah - we’d likely screw it up. Hell, the Oilers are beyond incompetent but they tore it down and guess what? They’re better than us today even with their incompetence.

Look at Pittsburgh, look at Washington, Toronto, LA (and LA is looking like they’ll be coming out of their post-Stanley Cup rebuild shortly), Chicago - there are plenty examples of tanking working out great for you - but you still have to be a well run organization. You have to tank with a purpose, and have a plan to build from it. Tanking guarantees you nothing, but it gives you the best shot at building something that gives you the chance to have multiple cracks at winning a Cup/finding playoff success.

[Vinny01]

Originally Posted by ComixZone

Citing Edmonton or Buffalo, two organizations who have been utterly incompetent for decades doesn’t make it not worth it.

It is worth saying that the Flames seem to be run every bit as incompetently as the Oilers and Sabres though, so yeah - we’d likely screw it up. Hell, the Oilers are beyond incompetent but they tore it down and guess what? They’re better than us today even with their incompetence.

Look at Pittsburgh, look at Washington, Toronto, LA (and LA is looking like they’ll be coming out of their post-Stanley Cup rebuild shortly), Chicago - there are plenty examples of tanking working out great for you - but you still have to be a well run organization. You have to tank with a purpose, and have a plan to build from it. Tanking guarantees you nothing, but it gives you the best shot at building something that gives you the chance to have multiple cracks at winning a Cup/finding playoff success.

Look at recent examples:

Tampa- their top 3 picks were made in 08/09 and they win in 20
St.Louis- didn’t tank and took a decade to get over the hump
Washington- win in 18 and were picking high in 04-06

Doesn’t really line up with the argument you are making. Flames already have 5 players picked in the top 6 from 13-16 and they are not getting it done so not sure why it will definitely work if they do it again?

[FlameyMcFlameFace]

I honestly think we are going to be faced with a rebuild whether we like it or not. As much as I would love to retool. How do you retool a team like we currently have to win a Stanley cup? Reality check folks. This is more than just a proven coach problem. We can’t just retool to magically get a game changer player. Retooling this squad to win a cup seems, well, impossible.

[flames_fan_down_under]

Winning a cup is one thing, but just being a consistently competitive sports franchise is another thing entirely, which is what I want the Flames to be.

You listed Tampa - 3 top picks in 08/09 lead to - 1 cup, 1 Presidents Trophy, 2 cup final appearances, 2 division championships, 7 playoff appearances, 13 playoff series wins.

St. Louis - the decade you referenced - 3 division championships, 1 cup, 8 playoff appearances, 8 playoff round wins

Washington - 10 division championships, 3 presidents trophies, 1 cup, multiple playoff appearances, 10 playoff round wins

I think we all know the Flames accolades.

[CSharp]

Originally Posted by thefoss1957

"Tanking" is NEVER worth it. Look at any of they E=NG threads to see what success "tanking" has wrought.

The path that the Oilers and Sabres took was a huge gamble to try to mimic the success of the Pens when they had Mario and Jagr and then followed up by them getting Fleury, Malkin, Crosby, and Staal. That tanking was worth 5 Cups altogether and also many successful years even without Cup wins without those players. Let's say if the Oilers picked Seguin instead of Hall and then 2 years later selected Filip Forsberg instead of Yakopov, then Bo Horvat instead of Nurse, and finally Tkachuk instead of Puljujarvi - that team would've looked a heck of a lot different. It's all about luck and how deep that draft pool is as well. The Oilers, Sabres, Pens, and other teams took full advantage of the NHL lottery draft process before the McJesus lottery draft changed the following year. So, doing a tank doesn't guarantee you the first overall pick or a locked position within the top six or so. Flames had their chance but they blew it. It's too bad since a full rebuild takes a decade or more before things start to turn around and it doesn't even guarantee a championship if you don't have at least 2 generational franchise players in your lineup, it seems.

If the Oilers finally win a Cup with McJesus and Draisaitl, it'll all be worth it. However, if they don't and basically lose both of those players because they've run out of time, it'll all be for nothing. However, the ownership would've made a heck of a lot of money based on those two players alone just because they had the balls to tank the way they did and lived to tell show them off. It's all a gamble and you can win big or go home sulking for years or you can also get lucky and get the right people through incredible trades like what the Flames did in the mid to late 80's.

[ComixZone]

Originally Posted by Vinny01

Look at recent examples:

Tampa- their top 3 picks were made in 08/09 and they win in 20
St.Louis- didn’t tank and took a decade to get over the hump
Washington- win in 18 and were picking high in 04-06

Doesn’t really line up with the argument you are making. Flames already have 5 players picked in the top 6 from 13-16 and they are not getting it done so not sure why it will definitely work if they do it again?

Uh, it entirely makes my point.

Headman #2, Stamkos #1. It’s not a guarantee, but those two picks helped keep that team, alongside good management, in the playoffs and battling for elite status year after year after year until things finally bounced and went their way.

Washington, Backstrom #4, Ovechkin #1. It’s not a guarantee, but the foundation to keep battling year in and year out.

Where’s our Hedman? Our Ovechkin, Stamkos, Backstrom, Toews, Kane, Crosby. Why do we make excuses for this type of crap. We don’t have a stable of elite players. We don’t have an elite foundation. It’s why we suck EVERY YEAR.

It’s not about some cure all, instant get rich scheme. It’s about laying the foundation for true success. This team didn’t do it. Monahan at #6, is NOT a Backstrom at 4th, or Stamkos at #1. Tkachuk at #6 is not an Ovechkin at #1. We also hit a bad draft year with Bennett, that happens. And when you look back at it - why did we rush these players into the league? To help make the team better that season? Well bravo. We act like we aren’t the Oilers, but we do all the same crap. Maybe if we didn’t rush Monahan into the league, perhaps we draft 3rd instead of 4th and Draisaitl or Ekblad? Why did we sign Hiller in 2014? Why did we sign Raymond? Why not just embrace the suckitude? Mildly less short term pain for significantly more long term agony? Worried about developing a losing culture? It was already there, and we built on it anyways.

St. Louis is the only outlier. I’ll give you that. Why someone would choose the outlier as the path forward though is beyond me. St. Louis also had a very aggressive GM and traded very aggressively, oh - and had lightning in a bottle with an interim head coach and an ECHL goalie exploding onto the scene. How is banking on catching lightning in a bottle better than a structured building of a roster that takes multiple years to develop?

We don’t have the high ground on the Oilers. They’ve been just as “good”, if not better than us and they have the brighter future because they have McDavid and Draisaitl locked in long term. What do we have? A few more months before trade protection sets in on Gaudreau, a Monahan that is tumbling down the path of irrelevancy, and 0 bloody success to speak of.

[CroFlames]

Originally Posted by flames_fan_down_under

Winning a cup is one thing, but just being a consistently competitive sports franchise is another thing entirely, which is what I want the Flames to be.

You listed Tampa - 3 top picks in 08/09 lead to - 1 cup, 1 Presidents Trophy, 2 cup final appearances, 2 division championships, 7 playoff appearances, 13 playoff series wins.

St. Louis - the decade you referenced - 3 division championships, 1 cup, 8 playoff appearances, 8 playoff round wins

Washington - 10 division championships, 3 presidents trophies, 1 cup, multiple playoff appearances, 10 playoff round wins

I think we all know the Flames accolades.

The Cup should always be the goal. But yes, I agree with you.

It would be a lot easier to stomach no Cups since 1989 with the track record like those above teams teams.

Sad. And not ironically like how Trump used to say Sad! Just honest to goodness sad.

[N-E-B]

Originally Posted by thefoss1957

"Tanking" is NEVER worth it. Look at any of they E=NG threads to see what success "tanking" has wrought.

Really? So the three Stanley Cups Chicago won weren’t worth it? Or did you forget how painfully bad they were in the early 2000’s?

[Macho0978]

Originally Posted by N-E-B

Really? So the three Stanley Cups Chicago won weren’t worth it? Or did you forget how painfully bad they were in the early 2000’s?

It was easily worth it. But gone are the days that guys like Kane and Toews resign for $6mil for 5 years and Keith resigns for 12 years and Hossa does too all for $6 mil per or less.

Still yet to see anyone give an example of when a team tanks gets high end talent and that guy demand $10 mil to $12 mil on shorter term deals and that team went on to be one of the top teams in the NHL.

Since the Leafs and the Oilers reset the bar and front loaded deals were eliminated it is looking to be way less successful to tank for 3-5 years

Who do the Red Wings and Sens have that are head over heals better than the Flames?

What does Chabot make as the first star that Ottawa had to resign?

Managing the timing of your contracts and a retool is all that is needed. Reset the window of opportunity by selling this deadline

[bdubbs]

I echo some of the sentiment above. The cup should be the end goal, but being a top team that wins playoff series every year would definitely make disappointing streaks during the regular season easier to stomach.

[Vinny01]

Originally Posted by ComixZone

Uh, it entirely makes my point.
.

I don’t think it does unless your point is you absolutely need a 1st or 2nd overall pick to win a cup? The last place team hasn’t won the lottery since the Leafs got Matthews. The Caps waited 14 years after drafting Ovie to get over and the Bolts 12 years after Stamkos was drafted. Look at how impatient our fanbase is right now there is ZERO chance they will remain patient during what you are suggesting.

[ComixZone]

Originally Posted by Vinny01

I don’t think it does unless your point is you absolutely need a 1st or 2nd overall pick to win a cup? The last place team hasn’t won the lottery since the Leafs got Matthews. The Caps waited 14 years after drafting Ovie to get over and the Bolts 12 years after Stamkos was drafted. Look at how impatient our fanbase is right now there is ZERO chance they will remain patient during what you are suggesting.

There's no guarantees in it.

Does it give you the best shot, especially with talk revolving around shuffling how the lottery works to give better odds to the bottom teams again? Yeah, it absolutely does.

Yeah, I don't think this fan base is impatient at all. We're frustrated because we're being sold a pile of crap that hasn't meaningfully changed in years, and we're being asked to stomach sub-NHL quality coaching. Sell us hope. Sell us an actual process.

What the hell has Treliving's process been? Panic early in the rebuild and trade for a 2nd pairing defenceman? Acquire a cornerstone piece in Hamilton, but then flip him because he doesn't fit in with the established losing culture? Rush prospects into the league, pay for spare parts between the pipes. Treliving's process doesn't exist. It's literally "spend in free agency on whatever crap is laying around, bank on a core that isn't made up of elite pieces, and hire an AHL/ECHL quality head coach".

Babock's recent interview put some light on Toronto's process. It was all about tanking, and it actually worked for them in one season. That's crazy levels of luck - but had they not gotten Matthews, would they not have just kept on trying for Hischier/Patrick and then again on Dahlin?

Build an actual process. We've got a new arena on the horizon. Sell us on hope going into that building. Rip this thing down, communicate that the team sees it as a 3-year process, invest in a coach to be a cornerstone piece, and get the hell to work.

[CliffFletcher]

I don’t think tanking is the answer. Not with this roster at this time. Management just has to get much better (read: more realistic) about asset management. Invest in scouting. Trust your scouts to find players with picks. Give them lots of picks to worth with by unloading declining assets. And for the love of god, stop trading away 1st and 2nd round picks like you’re a top-4 Cup contender that just needs a boost to take you over the top, when you’re really a mediocre team hoping for a boost into being above-average.

Move a couple of valuable pieces for younger pieces and picks. I pitched Farabee as a key return in a Gaudreau deal in the offseason and people laughed. If a team like Columbus will give up guys like Bjorkstrand or Texier for a Monahan you pull the trigger. Those are the kinds of deals you make when you retool. They sting in the short term but pay off in the long run. If you miss the playoffs for a season and get a shot at the lottery, all the better.

[CSharp]

Originally Posted by N-E-B

Really? So the three Stanley Cups Chicago won weren’t worth it? Or did you forget how painfully bad they were in the early 2000’s?

Pens, Kings, Hawks - pretty much made up a good 10 years where each team won multiple cups and dominated or at the top of the league during that decade. I'd say it was great for the organization and for the fans. However, that tool about 10 to 20 or even 30 years. St Louis never really did any tanking and look how long it took them to win 1 Cup. I think if you're planning to rebuild from scratch and plan it with patience to "properly" rebuild with the a couple of franchise players, it's well worth it. However, if you tank and fast track it like the Flames did, it's not going go anywhere.

[Vinny01]

Originally Posted by ComixZone

There's no guarantees in it.

Does it give you the best shot, especially with talk revolving around shuffling how the lottery works to give better odds to the bottom teams again? Yeah, it absolutely does.

Yeah, I don't think this fan base is impatient at all. We're frustrated because we're being sold a pile of crap that hasn't meaningfully changed in years, and we're being asked to stomach sub-NHL quality coaching. Sell us hope. Sell us an actual process.

What the hell has Treliving's process been? Panic early in the rebuild and trade for a 2nd pairing defenceman? Acquire a cornerstone piece in Hamilton, but then flip him because he doesn't fit in with the established losing culture? Rush prospects into the league, pay for spare parts between the pipes. Treliving's process doesn't exist. It's literally "spend in free agency on whatever crap is laying around, bank on a core that isn't made up of elite pieces, and hire an AHL/ECHL quality head coach".

Babock's recent interview put some light on Toronto's process. It was all about tanking, and it actually worked for them in one season. That's crazy levels of luck - but had they not gotten Matthews, would they not have just kept on trying for Hischier/Patrick and then again on Dahlin?

Build an actual process. We've got a new arena on the horizon. Sell us on hope going into that building. Rip this thing down, communicate that the team sees it as a 3-year process, invest in a coach to be a cornerstone piece, and get the hell to work.

I just don’t agree with this at all. While I understand what you are saying you can’t turn this thing around in 3 years like you suggest and really expect it to be much better than it is now.

I also disagree about the process piece you say the Flames didn’t have. I have made the comparison that the “find a way Flames” team was similar to emergency recall Baertschi. The expectations were raised too high too quickly. When Hamilton was added and then moved it made perfect sense to me from a rebuilding perspective. Tkachuk’s rookie year they make the playoffs and Treliving made what I think was his worst personnel move as a GM which was the Hamonic trade. I know the organization viewed him as a top pairing Dman and basically wanted to roll out 2 top pairings especially since they were facing McDavid a bunch. Horrible pro scouting and the move crippled the rebuild. I thought pivoting after that year and moving Ferland and Hamilton for Lindholm and Hanifin was great as the team moved a 2 players aged 25/26 and a prospect who refused to sign for a 23 and 21 year old. Somewhat reset the rebuild and acquired arguably our best player in Lindholm.

Once the team responded with 107pts they were all in to win. This looks to be the second year they took a step back so maybe the Flames pick high this year, trwde Gaudreau and Monahan but I don’t want them to go into tank mode. They can pivot and still push forward with Lindholm, Tkachuk, Mangiapane, Dube, Hanifin, Andersson, Valimaki and Markstrom.

[ComixZone]

Originally Posted by Vinny01

I just don’t agree with this at all. While I understand what you are saying you can’t turn this thing around in 3 years like you suggest and really expect it to be much better than it is now.

I also disagree about the process piece you say the Flames didn’t have. I have made the comparison that the “find a way Flames” team was similar to emergency recall Baertschi. The expectations were raised too high too quickly. When Hamilton was added and then moved it made perfect sense to me from a rebuilding perspective. Tkachuk’s rookie year they make the playoffs and Treliving made what I think was his worst personnel move as a GM which was the Hamonic trade. I know the organization viewed him as a top pairing Dman and basically wanted to roll out 2 top pairings especially since they were facing McDavid a bunch. Horrible pro scouting and the move crippled the rebuild. I thought pivoting after that year and moving Ferland and Hamilton for Lindholm and Hanifin was great as the team moved a 2 players aged 25/26 and a prospect who refused to sign for a 23 and 21 year old. Somewhat reset the rebuild and acquired arguably our best player in Lindholm.

Once the team responded with 107pts they were all in to win. This looks to be the second year they took a step back so maybe the Flames pick high this year, trwde Gaudreau and Monahan but I don’t want them to go into tank mode. They can pivot and still push forward with Lindholm, Tkachuk, Mangiapane, Dube, Hanifin, Andersson, Valimaki and Markstrom.

Lindholm as our best player is not good enough. He’s not elite. If that’s the top-end of our roster, then all you have is a 15th-25th placed team, which is all we are now. It’s about getting to the top 1/3rd of the league consistently, and this team is nowhere near that with a roster constructed the way you have it put together. Those players aren’t good enough.

[Psytic]

They will probably fall ass backwards into a top 10 pick this year with out even trying so theres that.

[ComixZone]

Originally Posted by Psytic

They will probably fall ass backwards into a top 10 pick this year with out even trying so theres that.

hopefully we win the lottery, but even then - this draft doesn’t look like a great year draft-wise.