Are tanking and blowing it up worthwhile?

[dobbles]

I know you guys are pretty much full tilt at this point based on all the other threads. But something struck me while reading some of them. And that is the constant references to tanking, blowing it up, rebuilding etc. So I've been wondering if that strategy is even worthwhile at this point? Does a team really need to be awful for a few years to try and get the star power to succeed?

We saw a couple of great examples in the Hawks and Penguins that were super bad and turned all those picks into multiple cups. But were those just two lucky examples? Are there any other recent cup winners you guys would say employed that strategy? When I look at the other cup winners in the last decade or two, the rest seem to be teams that had been strong for some time before finally winning. (TB, WSH, BOS)

Conversely, aren't there enough cautionary tails against tanking? You guys obviously know how bad Edmonton is, but a team like the coyotes has been bad for a long time and never managed to get anywhere. And I think another good example in progress is Detroit. Since finally breaking their playoff streak, they have done a slow and terrible rebuild that has resulted in terrible teams, but no real plan to turn it around thus far.

So while I understand your frustration as a fan base over the lack of playoff success these last 30 years, do you guys think blowing it up is an effective strategy to try and come back again in 5 years and win some cups? To me, it feels like pie in the sky dreaming based off a couple lucky stories. But wanted to get your feedback.

[PepsiFree]

I think it's a huge mistake. We have a legitimate starting goaltender for the first time in a long time, we have multiple younger guys that are the exact type you'd want to gain from a rebuild, and we have at least a few prospects that have a legitimate shot of becoming NHL regulars.

A retool? Sure, but I wouldn't touch the scorched earth approach. Take the Colorado approach and shake up the core a bit, bring in a solid coach, and go from there.

[Monahammer]

I think you really need a harder shake than what Colorado did. We have been in futility a bit longer than they were.

I think it shakes out that we keep 2 out of these: Tkachuk-lindy-Gaudreau-Monahan (I would guess Lindy and Monahan)

Then keep: Andersson-Valimaki-Tanev

Then: Markstrom

Everyone else on the roster is fair game for a a good value trade. Not fire sale, but try to use the pieces to make it good.

It's difficult to define if that's a blow up. We would be trading a captain and an assistant captain at least. We keep very few of the current roster players, but hopefully dont throw out the proverbial baby in the bathwater.

[N-E-B]

At this point in time I highly doubt we see it happen, but generally I think yes it’s worth it if you do it right. That means multiple picks in the top three for consecutive years. Otherwise you end up with the Flames.

I also think you have to nail a few later 1st round picks like the Bruins with Pastrnak or Washington with Kuznetsov. Maybe Zary or Pelletier can be those guys for us?

But given that we just signed Markstrom I think a retool of the core is more likely, and honestly I think it could work. However that should also come with a change of management and coaching. I think this team could benefit from the vision of someone with no emotional attachment to these players. The third change I’d make is a change in captaincy, which could also be done through the retool but I don’t think Gio is tradable right now without massive salary retention.

I don’t think you go full scorched earth before trying to retool first.

[Igottago]

Needs a strong retool (not a complete blow up), but I think it needs someone else to orchestrate it. A fresh set of eyes in the GM chair might work better.

[TheRealPepman]

Honestly? Let's tank and get top talent.

We've never ever been the worst team in the league and it's not like we're coming off our most successful era, so I say give it a try.

[Coach]

Need a top line RW and a Coach.

I don't think you need to tank for that.

[mdubz]

I would be all for it, if it wasn't for this being an extremely weak draft class with much less scouting due to COVID.

[Poe969]

Yes. Keep the.young guys worth building around. This core doesn't need more time or yet another coach. Start all over.

[Joborule]

I only believe a rebuild/blow it up approach is necessary when you realistically have peaked in performance, have diminishing assets that aren't going to hold value for the team much longer, and you don't have a strong set of prospective piece coming through the pipeline. At that point you don't really have much of a choice since the natural trajectory is going to be downhill. But if you do have some young assets that can be part of the team for the long term, you can work around that, and move piece that aren't in the long term plan to bring in more future assets.

Retool is more what I think is ideal for majority of cases, since you're building on foundation.

Problem with the Flames is that if you're gonna do a rebuild, you need to commit to the patience in doing in, and don't rush things. Trust the process as Treliving would say. However, he didn't follow his own advice, and sacrificed the process of the rebuild to accelerate things quicker. As a result, some of those moves (namely Hamonic) didn't pan out in the players staying long term, and loss of rebuild capital wasn't replaced.

[nik-]

Just make sure we stockpile a bunch of picks for next year's draft and the year after that, not this one.

[Red]

The team is too close and too young to re-build. Improve on Monahan, get a good RW and couple better bottom 6 guys.

The D is decent and young so it may (should) improve and Markstrom is a great G.

Another thing would be to move a combination of Monahan, JG and Chucky for futures while going after some more veteran players to keep the boat afloat. Guys like Toffoli, JT Miller etc.

The results of such top line wouldn't be worse than we are getting now. Especially if the team still made the playoffs.

[powderjunkie]

Originally Posted by Monahammer

I think you really need a harder shake than what Colorado did. We have been in futility a bit longer than they were.

I think it shakes out that we keep 2 out of these: Tkachuk-lindy-Gaudreau-Monahan (I would guess Lindy and Monahan)

Then keep: Andersson-Valimaki-Tanev

Then: Markstrom

Everyone else on the roster is fair game for a a good value trade. Not fire sale, but try to use the pieces to make it good.

It's difficult to define if that's a blow up. We would be trading a captain and an assistant captain at least. We keep very few of the current roster players, but hopefully dont throw out the proverbial baby in the bathwater.

Agree, we don't have a MacKinnon to retool around.

I'd add at least of Dubé/Mangi to the keep list (or I'd make it a list of those 6F and say keep 3).

And for me I'd say keep at least one of Vali/Hanifin. Looks like Vali should be looking at a bridge deal, but if including him instead of Hanifin is necessary to put a major deal over the top, I'd do it.

[Harry Lime]

I don't think blowing anything up is possible during the lockdown.

[GioforPM]

Honestly, you need a lot of luck, especially now with the lottery. You need some draft luck (Point), often goalie luck (Binnington). You need to time your tank properly (Edmonton got crap 1OAs and then lcuked out at the lottery to get McDavid). And then you need PO luck - someone else taking out your biggest rival, or a rival losing their best player.

[madmike]

I'm all for blowing up the current core. I honestly can't think of any one player I'd like to build around. They have to keep some, but who? I really don't know.

I love Gaudreau, but I really don't see him wanting to re-sign in Calgary. The team is going nowhere and he's going to be a UFA. I'm not a fan of Monahan. He's a decent 2C but Lindholm is better overall. Tkachuk just seems immature to me. Every single Dman seems mentally soft.

I'm having a very hard time staying invested in the team. They're not a very likeable group.

[GranteedEV]

Pretty much every successful (conference finals+) team in the last decade had some key rebuild years where they built an elite core (nothing like our half-assed couple of years near the bottom that still don't qualify as bottoming out). Of course there are exceptions who simply hit jackpots in the draft (Boston's core of Bergeron, Lucic and Marchand come to mind) but technically, even the 2011 Bruins had a 2nd overall pick on their roster in Seguin, which I'm sure revitilized their confidence levels.

Do I believe the Flames have a rotten core the way some here do? No, I certainly do not. I actually believe in this core's character, commitment, and competitiveness.

I do think we have a deficit in talent at the two most important skater positions (#1 defenseman or lack thereof / #1 centre or lack thereof), but overall this is what should be a deep roster.

Now, teams sometimes just have bad years. Colorado finished last in the league in 2017, and by a large margin at that. This was a Colorado team that had the same core it has right now, even the same coach, but they finished dead ####ing last. The result was that Sakic not only added an elite talent in Cale Makar via the draft, but replaced some underwhelming periphery players with players better suited either to the style Bednar wanted to implement, or to the style Sakic believed was successful in the league.

What I do know is this - this team has had success playing a certain style which to some extent or another was implemented by both Bob Hartley and Bill Peters. We also know it hasn't had so much success playing what Glen Gulutzan dubbed "50/50 hockey" and what Geoff Ward has referred to as "better defensive hockey".

Personally, until we get back to playing that style, I don't believe we can really even evaluate the players on the roster. It's a style teams can certainly win with (and have won with) but it's not the style Treliving appears to favour. So there's a disconnect between the style that makes this a good team, and the style Treliving believes makes a good team.

I'd rather bring in a coach who coaches the style this team has success with, than bring in 20 other players who play the style this coach/management expects to have success with.

[Macho0978]

Originally Posted by dobbles

I know you guys are pretty much full tilt at this point based on all the other threads. But something struck me while reading some of them. And that is the constant references to tanking, blowing it up, rebuilding etc. So I've been wondering if that strategy is even worthwhile at this point? Does a team really need to be awful for a few years to try and get the star power to succeed?

We saw a couple of great examples in the Hawks and Penguins that were super bad and turned all those picks into multiple cups. But were those just two lucky examples? Are there any other recent cup winners you guys would say employed that strategy? When I look at the other cup winners in the last decade or two, the rest seem to be teams that had been strong for some time before finally winning. (TB, WSH, BOS)

Conversely, aren't there enough cautionary tails against tanking? You guys obviously know how bad Edmonton is, but a team like the coyotes has been bad for a long time and never managed to get anywhere. And I think another good example in progress is Detroit. Since finally breaking their playoff streak, they have done a slow and terrible rebuild that has resulted in terrible teams, but no real plan to turn it around thus far.

So while I understand your frustration as a fan base over the lack of playoff success these last 30 years, do you guys think blowing it up is an effective strategy to try and come back again in 5 years and win some cups? To me, it feels like pie in the sky dreaming based off a couple lucky stories. But wanted to get your feedback.

I don't feel that full rebuilds since the 2012-13 lockout have been as successful as they were when the salary cap was first introduced. Since they eliminated front loaded contracts and contracts for more than 8 years combined with the Oilers and Leafs signing the young stars to massive contracts the full rebuild still has potential but not fool proof for building a great team.

I believe being realistic about your team and taking advantage of opportunities is the way to go. I also think you need to plan the timing of your success.

If you look at this team contract expiring (Brodie) and Gio's age vs the rest of the core are holding this team back. Valimaki's progression due to injuries is hurting as well. Neal signing and Ryan's contract are hurting this team.

If you want to be successful more years than not and have a great team you can't over react to how bad they have been this year as this team does have good players. But they need to look at what this team looks like next year now and start to take advantage of opportunities at this deadline. If they sell even in a poor draft the outlook next year could be very much improved. If not sell again next year's deadline.

Rip the team completely apart is a terrible decision IMO

[CroFlames]

You retool, you don't rebuild when you have Markstrom under contract.

Johnny is likely gone anyway, so you start there. You tweak the lineup to try to find better players that can replace Leivo, Lucic, Nordstrom, etc.

There needs to be a captain change, which is going to happen anyway, so do it now and change his role to be the middle pair or bottom pair guy until he retires. You have solid defense in Hanifin, Vali, Andersson and Tanev.

That is all you can do at this stage, and you go for it. And for the love of God, if you are spending to the cap on players, invest in a top tier coach to lead them.

Trading Monahan is a bad idea.

[CaptainCrunch]

I am completely anti-tank as long as the team is charging full money for us to go and watch them play.



Putting in a piss poor lineup and not trying to win and charging a ton of money wouldn't sit well with me. To me a team has an obligation every year to win as much as possible. I think if a team is found to be deliberately tanking, then it should be relegated to the ECHL.