*Updated* Ongoing Bank of Canada Benchmark Rate Announcements

[Slava]

Originally Posted by Fuzz

The competition bureau must be listening to Whiteout's thoughts...
https://www.cbc.ca/news/business/com...627144?cmp=rss

Competition is a bit of a different factor though. It doesn't necessarily mean that the companies in the sector are gouging customers. That's the implication, of course, but the margins don't seem that insane.

[White Out 403]

https://www.epi.org/blog/corporate-p...akers-respond/

https://www.cbc.ca/news/business/inf...fits-1.6360277

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/corpo...173207569.html

https://www.theglobeandmail.com/busi...-up-costs-for/


Corporations have never been more profitable right now, the ones who are making money hand over fist for essential Goods can afford to make a little bit less while the inflation crisis is dealt with. Or I guess we can just throw people out of their homes, sure that's a good idea too

[opendoor]

Originally Posted by Slava

I'd love to see this journalism as well. The reality is that for Loblaws the long-term growth rate of the stock is 1.7%. I can already hear you saying that the share price is not indicative (I disagree, but we can dig a little deeper!)

What's your baseline for that figure? Over the last 30 or so years, Loblaws' stock has had total return (including dividends) of 11.14% per year. Over the last 10 years it has returned 16.14% per year. It has significantly outperformed the S&P 500 over both those stretches.

[Slava]

Originally Posted by White Out 403

https://www.epi.org/blog/corporate-p...akers-respond/

https://www.cbc.ca/news/business/inf...fits-1.6360277

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/corpo...173207569.html

https://www.theglobeandmail.com/busi...-up-costs-for/


Corporations have never been more profitable right now, the ones who are making money hand over fist for essential Goods can afford to make a little bit less while the inflation crisis is dealt with. Or I guess we can just throw people out of their homes, sure that's a good idea too

Well I think I addressed the point made by the Loblaws article here. The EPS rose, but the revenues aren't rising at the inflationary clip. The reason they're showing the improved bottom-line is because of other factors, obviously.

I know what you're trying to do here. You're saying that profits are higher, ergo the company is shafting people. But the revenues/sales are only up a few percent from the year before. That doesn't account for the increase. They've shown a better profit because there are less shares outstanding and because they've reduced costs. I'd also posit that they've increased their bottom-line selling products with better margins, and that's referenced in that article as well.

[Slava]

Originally Posted by opendoor

What's your baseline for that figure? Over the last 30 or so years, Loblaws' stock has had total return (including dividends) of 11.14% per year. Over the last 10 years it has returned 16.14% per year. It has significantly outperformed the S&P 500 over both those stretches.

I took it purely off my research system and just trusted it!

[PeteMoss]

Originally Posted by Slava

Well I think I addressed the point made by the Loblaws article here. The EPS rose, but the revenues aren't rising at the inflationary clip. The reason they're showing the improved bottom-line is because of other factors, obviously.

I know what you're trying to do here. You're saying that profits are higher, ergo the company is shafting people. But the revenues/sales are only up a few percent from the year before. That doesn't account for the increase. They've shown a better profit because there are less shares outstanding and because they've reduced costs. I'd also posit that they've increased their bottom-line selling products with better margins, and that's referenced in that article as well.

Seems like a good thing to investigate to see if there are issues. As mentioned - two companies - Loblaws and Empire (Sobeys) have a large percentage of control in the market (Metro being 3rd). They of course - rightly - want to add Walmart (and Amazon) to that list.

They've engaged in price fixing before - https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bread_...xing_in_Canada - so its not an outlandish claim.

[Slava]

Originally Posted by PeteMoss

Seems like a good thing to investigate to see if there are issues. As mentioned - two companies - Loblaws and Empire (Sobeys) have a large percentage of control in the market (Metro being 3rd). They of course - rightly - want to add Walmart (and Amazon) to that list.

They've engaged in price fixing before - https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bread_...xing_in_Canada - so its not an outlandish claim.

Yeah, and it should be investigated. I'm not claiming that they're all great from a consumer point of view and we should all trust them. But in Canada we have a few issues in this realm. The dairy cartel is notably an unchecked issue that we seem to be fine with, and we allow a lot of other oligarchies to run along and do their thing. Banks and telecom jump to mind in that area.

[PeteMoss]

Originally Posted by Slava

Yeah, and it should be investigated. I'm not claiming that they're all great from a consumer point of view and we should all trust them. But in Canada we have a few issues in this realm. The dairy cartel is notably an unchecked issue that we seem to be fine with, and we allow a lot of other oligarchies to run along and do their thing. Banks and telecom jump to mind in that area.

Telecom for sure. Dairy is more of a government regulations system than a monopoly.

[Firebot]

Originally Posted by PeteMoss

Telecom for sure. Dairy is more of a government regulations system than a monopoly.

Those government regulations happen with a little* (large) nudging from dairy lobbies. And it has their hands in the pockets of all political parties, which is why it may seem like a government thing.

This just got released a few days ago

https://hir.harvard.edu/canadas-dair...r-of-big-milk/

https://nationalpost.com/news/canada...ive-convention

Maxime Bernier likely lost the CPC leadership race for being anti-cartel. You simply don't mess with the dairy cartel.

Same reason why the Liberals are pushing for censorship bills right now with no visible benefit to Canadians but to the sole benefit of telecoms.

[Firebot]

https://openparliament.ca/debates/20...yves-perron-1/

Yves Perron Berthier—Maskinongé, QC

Mr. Speaker, today, June 1, we are celebrating World Milk Day. This year, again, I want to acknowledge the contribution of dairy farmers who take care of their herds and put high-quality milk on our tables, as well as precious milk products such as butter, yoghurt and cheese.

Today, milk was delivered to the lobby. It was a good opportunity to raise a glass to the health of our local farmers, which we did with pleasure, because milk and milk products are healthy and nutritious food.

Dairy farmers and farmers of other supply-managed products fared better than others during the pandemic. That is just more proof that they have an effective system. We need to quickly pass version 2.0 of our bill that seeks to protect supply management from any further breaches in future free trade negotiations.

Long live our dairy production here at home.

Yeah....The dairy industry has pretty turned homemade milk into a rallying point for nationalism.

[Roughneck]

I'd be more fine with supply management as our form of agriculture industry protection over subsidies if the quality was better. I mean, sure. I get it I guess. Why should everyone have to pay to subsidize an industry if they don't buy from it? But paying so much for mediocre product just isn't acceptable.

[you&me]

Originally Posted by Roughneck

I'd be more fine with supply management as our form of agriculture industry protection over subsidies if the quality was better. I mean, sure. I get it I guess. Why should everyone have to pay to subsidize an industry if they don't buy from it? But paying so much for mediocre product just isn't acceptable.

This is my main problem as well. Anecdotally, travelling through the US, I don't see an outsized disparity in dairy prices in Canada, relative to other grocery items. But the lack of selection and quality - that's the real kicker.

Regarding competition in the grocery business in general, I think it's a tough situation. Overall, the business has some pretty high barriers to entry (logistics, supply, real estate) and relatively thin margins... It's something that really requires scale to compete. I don't know how you encourage more competition in such a lack lustre business.

[Firebot]

Originally Posted by Roughneck

I'd be more fine with supply management as our form of agriculture industry protection over subsidies if the quality was better. I mean, sure. I get it I guess. Why should everyone have to pay to subsidize an industry if they don't buy from it? But paying so much for mediocre product just isn't acceptable.

How on earth we just accepted hard butter as a country is beyond me.

Breyers ice cream not melting goes viral (even though it's not true) yet our butter literally does not soften at room temperature in the past couple years, we had a few stories last year including on BBC for buttergate, and I guess the dairy cartel stepped in since we've had no new stories in over a year with no action occuring.

Meanwhile I ripped my toast last night trying to spread spreadable butter, which is also very hard

[calgarygeologist]

Originally Posted by Firebot

How on earth we just accepted hard butter as a country is beyond me.

Breyers ice cream not melting goes viral (even though it's not true) yet our butter literally does not soften at room temperature in the past couple years, we had a few stories last year including on BBC for buttergate, and I guess the dairy cartel stepped in since we've had no new stories in over a year with no action occuring.

Meanwhile I ripped my toast last night trying to spread spreadable butter, which is also very hard

Your butter doesn't soften? What are you buying? The butter we use is always soft at room temp and is easy to spread.

[V]

Originally Posted by MillerTime GFG

I had the absolute privilege of listening to Benjamin Tal speak yesterday at the National Mortgage Broker conference. He's the Deputy Chief Economist for CIBC, and one of the most respected economists in the country. Guy is brilliant, and a good speaker too.

Highlights:
- "If you give the BoC 2 options - recession vs. inflation, they will choose recession every time"
- Expect a 50bps increase to 3.75% this month, and potentially another 25bps later this year before leveling off, which he does expect to be the case.

I haven't tracked the BoC rate changes over the last year, but have they been that out of line with the Fed? The expectations for the Fed are 75bps in November and 50bps in December. I'm surprised BoC wouldn't try to keep pace with them.

[bizaro86]

Originally Posted by PeteMoss

Telecom for sure. Dairy is more of a government regulations system than a monopoly.

I mean, it's absolutely both. The quota (just for the right to sell milk) for an average dairy farm is worth over a million dollars.

Buyers aren't paying that much to get into the club because it feels good, they're paying those prices for quota because quota grants them extranormal profits.

[pseudoreality]

Originally Posted by calgarygeologist

Your butter doesn't soften? What are you buying? The butter we use is always soft at room temp and is easy to spread.

Same with me. I started keeping a stick of butter in a container at room temperature about a year ago and it has been a game changer.

[Locke]

Originally Posted by pseudoreality

Same with me. I started keeping a stick of butter in a container at room temperature about a year ago and it has been a game changer.

Dude...thats probably not good anymore.

[Nancy]

Originally Posted by V

I haven't tracked the BoC rate changes over the last year, but have they been that out of line with the Fed? The expectations for the Fed are 75bps in November and 50bps in December. I'm surprised BoC wouldn't try to keep pace with them.

The Fed probably has more room to increase rates without killing mortgagees, with just 10% of mortgages in the US being ARMs and the balance being mostly 25 year mortgages. In Canada, 32.5% of mortgages are variable and the balance are mostly 5 year mortgages... and with CMHC on the hook if they default.

[pseudoreality]

Originally Posted by Locke

Dude...thats probably not good anymore.