Calgarypuck Forums - The Unofficial Calgary Flames Fan Community
Old 03-04-2019, 02:22 PM   #1
SuperMatt18
Franchise Player
 
SuperMatt18's Avatar
 
Join Date: Feb 2007
Location: Calgary, AB
Exp:
icon57 Home Ice Disadvantage: Why are our goalies so bad on home ice?

Lots have been made about the Flames goaltending over this season, but I think that one aspect hasn't been getting enough attention: our goalies poor play on the Saddledome ice compared to their play on the road.

We are now in the second straight season where Rittich and Smith are both much better away from the Saddledome.

Going back to the start of the 2017-2018 season here are the home/road splits for Smith/Rittich.

Rittich
Home - GP: 21 SV%: 0.878 HDSV%: 0.782 AdjSv%: -1.86
Road - GP: 36 SV%: 0.924 HDSV%: 0.854 AdjSv%: 1.05

Smith
Home - GP: 53 SV%: 0.895 HDSV%: 0.775 AdjSv%: -0.59
Road - GP: 36 SV%: 0.926 HDSV5: 0.864 AdjSV%: 1.35

And from the team perspective it doesn't feel like we are giving up more quality on home ice than we do on the road - considering we give up fewer shot attempts, shots, and high danger chances at home than we do on the road. Yet somehow we have the 2nd best save percentage in the league on the road, and the worst home save percentage in the league.

Home
Record: 37-26-9
Corsi For %: 55.1%
Corsi Against Per 60: 52.3
Shots Against Per 60: 28.1
HD Corsi Against Per 60: 10.3
SV%: .888 (Last in the NHL)
Expected GA/60: 2.76 per 60

Away
Record: 41-26-8
Corsi For %: 51.3%
Corsi Against Per 60: 57.2
Shots Against Per 60: 31.4
HD Corsi Against Per 60: 11.5
SV%: .917 (2nd in the NHL)
Expected GA/60: 2.96 per 60

It really is an interesting, and very confusing case. Both goalies have played at least 20 games in each situation and yet the trend continues.

Are our goalies struggling to track the puck in the Saddledome? Is it a mental scenario where they are struggling with the pressure on home ice? Could it be the team in front of them plays a tighter game on the road and is more loose on home ice?

So what are your thoughts - why are the Flames goalies so much worse at home than on the road?

Because personally I'm not sure I've ever seen something like this and can't figure out the reason why.

Last edited by SuperMatt18; 03-04-2019 at 02:55 PM.
SuperMatt18 is online now   Reply With Quote
The Following User Says Thank You to SuperMatt18 For This Useful Post:
Old 03-04-2019, 02:25 PM   #2
Beninho
In the Sin Bin
 
Join Date: Oct 2016
Location: Victoria
Exp:
Default Home Ice Disadvantage: Why are our goalies so bad on home ice?

Could be due to high expectations playing in front of big crowds. I didn’t know Rittich’s home stats were that polarized, Smith has been terrible on home ice for two seasons. The home crowd definitely doesn’t have a loving relationship with smith.

I’ve said this before regarding Smith but he should really only be starting on the road unless he needs to start at home due to a back to back or congested schedule. He seems to lose focus way more on home ice after he makes an error.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

Last edited by Beninho; 03-04-2019 at 02:29 PM.
Beninho is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 03-04-2019, 02:26 PM   #3
Cleveland Steam Whistle
Franchise Player
 
Join Date: Oct 2011
Exp:
Default

Likely because they are afraid of getting jeered by the home town fans should they make a mistake and having to live up to inflated (and only so because the fans in this town are so extreme on it, not because he wasn't amazing) reputation that everyone must be Kipper like who plays in net for us.

Cleveland Steam Whistle is offline   Reply With Quote
The Following 5 Users Say Thank You to Cleveland Steam Whistle For This Useful Post:
Old 03-04-2019, 02:38 PM   #4
PeteMoss
Franchise Player
 
PeteMoss's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jun 2004
Location: SW Ontario
Exp:
Default

Games have been higher scoring at home:
127 GF vs 101 GA at home
105-85 on the road

Games have also tightened up at late and the Flames schedule has been road heavy lately.
PeteMoss is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 03-04-2019, 02:42 PM   #5
troutman
Unfrozen Caveman Lawyer
 
troutman's Avatar
 
Join Date: Oct 2002
Location: Winebar Kensington
Exp:
Default

Could be the players are not as conservative at home, wanting to put on a show.
__________________
https://www.mergenlaw.com/
http://cjsw.com/program/fossil-records/
twitter/instagram @troutman1966
troutman is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 03-04-2019, 02:43 PM   #6
Robbob
Franchise Player
 
Join Date: Jul 2003
Exp:
Default

Quote:
Originally Posted by Cleveland Steam Whistle View Post
Likely because they are afraid of getting jeered by the home town fans should they make a mistake and having to live up to inflated (and only so because the fans in this town are so extreme on it, not because he wasn't amazing) reputation that everyone must be Kipper like who plays in net for us.

Even Kipper got jeered. No one is safe.
Robbob is offline   Reply With Quote
The Following User Says Thank You to Robbob For This Useful Post:
Old 03-04-2019, 02:48 PM   #7
SuperMatt18
Franchise Player
 
SuperMatt18's Avatar
 
Join Date: Feb 2007
Location: Calgary, AB
Exp:
Default

Quote:
Originally Posted by troutman View Post
Could be the players are not as conservative at home, wanting to put on a show.
I think that potentially could be the case, players taking more risks and giving up more odd man rushes on home ice...but our expected goals against is actually higher on the road than at home...so the stats that take scoring chances and shot quality into consideration don't really seem to prove that out.

Last edited by SuperMatt18; 03-04-2019 at 02:51 PM.
SuperMatt18 is online now   Reply With Quote
Old 03-04-2019, 02:55 PM   #8
Bingo
Owner
 
Bingo's Avatar
 
Join Date: Dec 2001
Location: Calgary
Exp:
Default

Is it inactivity? Going cold?

Calgary allows the 2nd fewest shots against per 60 on home ice (26.81), though they do allow the 6th fewest on the road (29.95)

Scoring chance rates ...
Home 23.5
Road 27.3

High danger chances ...
Home 10.3
Road 11.5

They are middle of the pack in chances against on home ice ... maybe too little activity and then boom scoring chance.
Bingo is online now   Reply With Quote
The Following 3 Users Say Thank You to Bingo For This Useful Post:
Old 03-04-2019, 03:02 PM   #9
SuperMatt18
Franchise Player
 
SuperMatt18's Avatar
 
Join Date: Feb 2007
Location: Calgary, AB
Exp:
Default

Quote:
Originally Posted by Bingo View Post
Is it inactivity? Going cold?

Calgary allows the 2nd fewest shots against per 60 on home ice (26.81), though they do allow the 6th fewest on the road (29.95)

Scoring chance rates ...
Home 23.5
Road 27.3

High danger chances ...
Home 10.3
Road 11.5

They are middle of the pack in chances against on home ice ... maybe too little activity and then boom scoring chance.
That is an interesting one.

Would be neat to try and time the inactivity from the last shot to the goal for all the "soft" goals we've seen this season.

For example I looked back at the game Saturday and when Smith let in the soft goal to make it 4-2 he had not seen a shot for 5 minutes (goal went in with 1:42 remaining, last shot prior to that was 6:47)

And the goal to make it 2-1 was the first shot on goal (if you can even call it that) of the period for Minnesota in the third.

Last edited by SuperMatt18; 03-04-2019 at 03:06 PM.
SuperMatt18 is online now   Reply With Quote
Old 03-04-2019, 03:07 PM   #10
GioforPM
Franchise Player
 
Join Date: Oct 2014
Location: Springbank
Exp:
Default

Quote:
Originally Posted by SuperMatt18 View Post
That is an interesting one.

Would be neat to try and time the inactivity from the last shot to the goal for all the "soft" goals we've seen this season.

For example I looked back at the game Saturday and when Smith let in the soft goal to make it 4-2 he had not seen a shot for 5 minutes (goal went in with 1:42 remaining, last shot prior to that was 6:47)
The first goal (not a bad goal) was after a long long period in the other end.

I think Rittich's last 2 games (away) was the same. He had lengthy periods without a shot, and then he'd get a great chance on him. It was tough (but he handled it great IMO).
GioforPM is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 03-04-2019, 03:37 PM   #11
Flash Walken
Lifetime Suspension
 
Flash Walken's Avatar
 
Join Date: Sep 2005
Location: The Void between Darkness and Light
Exp:
Default

Quote:
Originally Posted by Bingo View Post
Is it inactivity? Going cold?

Calgary allows the 2nd fewest shots against per 60 on home ice (26.81), though they do allow the 6th fewest on the road (29.95)

Scoring chance rates ...
Home 23.5
Road 27.3

High danger chances ...
Home 10.3
Road 11.5

They are middle of the pack in chances against on home ice ... maybe too little activity and then boom scoring chance.
Is this perhaps suggestive of the flames maybe getting the matchups they want more frequently at home vs on the road?

It doesn't look like a huge discrepancy except for the scoring chance rate which makes me wonder if that's a factor of specific matchups vs a through the lineup type thing.

Is it possible to look at individual lines and see if there is a similar discrepancy in their possession rates or quality of competition home vs away?
Flash Walken is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 03-04-2019, 03:41 PM   #12
Manhattanboy
Franchise Player
 
Join Date: May 2004
Exp:
Default

Quote:
Originally Posted by Bingo View Post
Is it inactivity? Going cold?

Calgary allows the 2nd fewest shots against per 60 on home ice (26.81), though they do allow the 6th fewest on the road (29.95)

Scoring chance rates ...
Home 23.5
Road 27.3

High danger chances ...
Home 10.3
Road 11.5

They are middle of the pack in chances against on home ice ... maybe too little activity and then boom scoring chance.
That is going to key in the playoffs, managing shots against...

EDIT: I should say continue to manage - if that count goes up significantly we are hooped....

Last edited by Manhattanboy; 03-04-2019 at 03:44 PM.
Manhattanboy is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 03-04-2019, 03:54 PM   #13
Bingo
Owner
 
Bingo's Avatar
 
Join Date: Dec 2001
Location: Calgary
Exp:
Default

Quote:
Originally Posted by Flash Walken View Post
Is this perhaps suggestive of the flames maybe getting the matchups they want more frequently at home vs on the road?

It doesn't look like a huge discrepancy except for the scoring chance rate which makes me wonder if that's a factor of specific matchups vs a through the lineup type thing.

Is it possible to look at individual lines and see if there is a similar discrepancy in their possession rates or quality of competition home vs away?
Nothing jumps out ... Gaudreau and Monahan play firewagon hockey no matter where they play, but they do give up more on home ice (Gaudreau 108% of the road data)

Team rankings.

Home
Five on Five
Shots vs / 60 2nd
SC vs / 60 5th
HD vs / 60 12th

Road
Five on Five
Shots vs / 60 8th
SC vs / 60 16th
HD vs / 60 16th

Five on five there is a bigger discrepancy between shot rates and quality chance rates on home ice.

Home
PK
Shots vs / 60 4th
SC vs / 60 16th
HD vs / 60 18th

Road
PK
Shots vs / 60 5th
SC vs / 60 8th
HD vs / 60 17th

Once again a wider gap on home ice.
Bingo is online now   Reply With Quote
Old 03-04-2019, 03:57 PM   #14
GranteedEV
Franchise Player
 
GranteedEV's Avatar
 
Join Date: Mar 2009
Location: Calgary
Exp:
Default

It's the red pads
__________________

"May those who accept their fate find happiness. May those who defy it find glory."
GranteedEV is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 03-04-2019, 03:58 PM   #15
Flash Walken
Lifetime Suspension
 
Flash Walken's Avatar
 
Join Date: Sep 2005
Location: The Void between Darkness and Light
Exp:
Default

Quote:
Originally Posted by Bingo View Post
Nothing jumps out ... Gaudreau and Monahan play firewagon hockey no matter where they play, but they do give up more on home ice (Gaudreau 108% of the road data)

Team rankings.

Home
Five on Five
Shots vs / 60 2nd
SC vs / 60 5th
HD vs / 60 12th

Road
Five on Five
Shots vs / 60 8th
SC vs / 60 16th
HD vs / 60 16th

Five on five there is a bigger discrepancy between shot rates and quality chance rates on home ice.

Home
PK
Shots vs / 60 4th
SC vs / 60 16th
HD vs / 60 18th

Road
PK
Shots vs / 60 5th
SC vs / 60 8th
HD vs / 60 17th

Once again a wider gap on home ice.
Could you do the same for backlund/tkachuk?

I do buy the 'cold' argument as the likeliest explanation, but I want to figure out whether whether it's an argument that the flames are playing better defensively on home ice because of defensive matchups and thus fewer chances against/longer period of inactivity or if the flames are playing better offensively due to matchups and thus fewer chances against/longer period of inactivity.
Flash Walken is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 03-04-2019, 03:58 PM   #16
The Boy Wonder
First Line Centre
 
The Boy Wonder's Avatar
 
Join Date: Apr 2009
Exp:
Default

My guess is it has something to do with Sigalet... does he even go on the road with the team?
The Boy Wonder is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 03-04-2019, 06:29 PM   #17
Textcritic
Acerbic Cyberbully
 
Textcritic's Avatar
 
Join Date: Aug 2003
Location: back in Chilliwack
Exp:
Default

Quote:
Originally Posted by GranteedEV View Post
It's the red pads
It might be, and that would be a terrible shame because they are so beautiful.
__________________
Dealing with Everything from Dead Sea Scrolls to Red C Trolls

Quote:
Originally Posted by woob
"...harem warfare? like all your wives dressup and go paintballing?"
"The Lying Pen of Scribes" Ancient Manuscript Forgeries Project
Textcritic is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 03-04-2019, 06:46 PM   #18
DeluxeMoustache
 
DeluxeMoustache's Avatar
 
Join Date: Mar 2010
Exp:
Default

Quote:
Originally Posted by Cleveland Steam Whistle View Post
Likely because they are afraid of getting jeered by the home town fans should they make a mistake and having to live up to inflated (and only so because the fans in this town are so extreme on it, not because he wasn't amazing) reputation that everyone must be Kipper like who plays in net for us.

I got a kick out of this post existing at the same time as the ‘who is the third best goalie after Kipper and Vernon’ thread, which clearly illustrates that no one who has played is anywhere near Kipper.
DeluxeMoustache is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 03-04-2019, 07:03 PM   #19
Red
Lifetime Suspension
 
Join Date: Oct 2001
Exp:
Default

Flames play more open style at home and give up more high quality chances?
Wonder how odd man rushes and breakaways are broken up, road vs home.
Red is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 03-04-2019, 07:14 PM   #20
djsFlames
Lifetime Suspension
 
Join Date: Jun 2012
Exp:
Default

Because Smith.
djsFlames is offline   Reply With Quote
Reply

Tags
flames , goalies , saddledome

Thread Tools Search this Thread
Search this Thread:

Advanced Search

Posting Rules
You may not post new threads
You may not post replies
You may not post attachments
You may not edit your posts

BB code is On
Smilies are On
[IMG] code is On
HTML code is Off

Forum Jump


All times are GMT -6. The time now is 03:51 PM.

Calgary Flames
2022-23




Powered by vBulletin® Version 3.8.4
Copyright ©2000 - 2023, Jelsoft Enterprises Ltd.
Copyright Calgarypuck 2021