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Old 11-25-2022, 11:19 AM   #621
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Probably Top Gun, Avatar likely won't have enough time left in the year to beat it.

Bit of a sensational title, but it's probably not far off.

Avatar: The Way of Water Needs to Be 3rd or 4th Highest Grossing Film of All Time to Make Money
https://www.ign.com/articles/avatar-...ever-to-profit
That's downright misleading. They have invested money into all 4 Avatar sequels. Yes, the first would need to make $2 billion to make profits on the venture as a whole, but that ignore the box office the other 3 sequels would bring in.

The total budget is $1,000,000, but that doesn't even mean all that money has been spent.

Reports have the budget for Avatar 2 at anywhere from $250-$400 million, with the sequels being set up in a way that the other ones will be cheaper per film.

Avatar 2 also has a confirmed release in China, which should help greatly. The first one earned $200 million there, but the box office potential of China has expanded greatly since then.
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Old 12-13-2022, 03:27 PM   #622
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Old 12-13-2022, 07:42 PM   #623
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Interesting. Way less than Endgame, but also way more than the original Avatar. I don't see people going to see this sequel multiple times, like that did with the original.

I wonder where they've set the threshold for more sequels? Not a huge fan of this series, but having people back in theatres is great for movies overall.
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Old 12-13-2022, 10:13 PM   #624
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not exactly a lot of competition for big blockbuster movies in theater over the holidays...I bet they clean up

I plan on going and I haven't been to the theater since last winter
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Old 12-14-2022, 07:42 AM   #625
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It's really 3 hours and 10 min? Jeez. I was surprised my kids both want to see it. I think I'll let my mom take them while she's here.

The reviews sound like it is even more spectacle, but same bland storytelling and characters.

I imagine it has a decent run through the holidays, but business dries up a lot faster than the first one.

I am sort of curious to see what the high frame rate looks like. I fear it would look like the motion smoothing settings on tvs and I can't stand that look.
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Old 12-17-2022, 08:45 AM   #626
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Avatar looking like it’s going to come in at 450-500 world wide.

Christmas will give it a nice multiplier so should be somewhere in that 1.8-2.2 range.
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Old 12-17-2022, 09:44 AM   #627
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It has some major advantages on the original, in that movie tickets are way more expensive now and international markets are much bigger. Even so, yeah I'd say just north of 2 billion?
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Old 12-17-2022, 12:27 PM   #628
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Avatar looking like it’s going to come in at 450-500 world wide.

Christmas will give it a nice multiplier so should be somewhere in that 1.8-2.2 range.
Looks more like 130 domestic/270 international. 400 ww weekend is probably on the high end. I’d guess 1.5 billion for ww run.
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Old 12-18-2022, 03:42 PM   #629
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135 Dom, 300 Int with latest projections

So 435ish. That makes 2 Billion a long way away.
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Old 12-18-2022, 05:59 PM   #630
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No matter what it opened at $2B is a long ways away.
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Old 12-18-2022, 07:07 PM   #631
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I wonder where they've set the threshold for more sequels?
The sequels are already approved/started. They've actually filmed Avatar 3 already, it's scheduled to come out Dec 2024. Avatar 4/5 have release dates as well
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Old 12-18-2022, 07:17 PM   #632
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The sequels are already approved/started. They've actually filmed Avatar 3 already, it's scheduled to come out Dec 2024. Avatar 4/5 have release dates as well
3 is a no brainer because it has been shot and just needs post production so 100 mil plus marketing. 4 just has the first scenes shot so could be canceled if this was terrible.

I think if this does less than 1.5 there will be some budget constraints placed on number 4 but it still gets made.
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Old 12-18-2022, 11:23 PM   #633
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3 is a no brainer because it has been shot and just needs post production so 100 mil plus marketing. 4 just has the first scenes shot so could be canceled if this was terrible.

I think if this does less than 1.5 there will be some budget constraints placed on number 4 but it still gets made.
Iger coming back means Avatar 4 gets made imo. It was his deal, he will want to see it through. If this flops maybe Cameron gets less money for 4.

Agree 3 is a no-brainer since the majority of the money is already spent.
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Old 12-18-2022, 11:50 PM   #634
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The sequels are already approved/started. They've actually filmed Avatar 3 already, it's scheduled to come out Dec 2024. Avatar 4/5 have release dates as well
That makes sense. I was thinking about the numbers from the article above.

Sounds like they've cut a lot of costs by partially completing the other sequels already. If things are a total disaster box office wise, I can't see them making any less then 3.5 billion from all three sequel movies. Would should easily bring in profits of $500+ million, plus other revenue streams.
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Old 12-18-2022, 11:54 PM   #635
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135 Dom, 300 Int with latest projections

So 435ish. That makes 2 Billion a long way away.
It blew away the first Avatar's numbers.

A couple things to remember, the film's screen count is limited by the need for higher end screens and the runtime.

They purposely positioned the movie ahead of the holidays so that it would get lots of viewings during the holidays.

This movie is also more of an experience than a movie. People aren't rushing to the theaters to find out what happens. There are lots of people, me included, who intend to see this movie but don't need to see it opening weekend.
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Old 12-19-2022, 08:30 AM   #636
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3 is a no brainer because it has been shot and just needs post production so 100 mil plus marketing. 4 just has the first scenes shot so could be canceled if this was terrible.

I think if this does less than 1.5 there will be some budget constraints placed on number 4 but it still gets made.
Two years in post? I wonder if it needs that, or it's some marketing strategy? I'd think you would want one every year to maintain momentum.
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Old 12-19-2022, 08:49 AM   #637
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Two years in post? I wonder if it needs that, or it's some marketing strategy? I'd think you would want one every year to maintain momentum.
If all that’s actually complete is the motion capture and dive tank stuff that requires the actors to be present, I could see needing that long to finish. From here on out it’s all the visual effects that need doing, which is like the other 85%.
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Old 12-19-2022, 08:53 AM   #638
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It blew away the first Avatar's numbers.

A couple things to remember, the film's screen count is limited by the need for higher end screens and the runtime.

They purposely positioned the movie ahead of the holidays so that it would get lots of viewings during the holidays.

This movie is also more of an experience than a movie. People aren't rushing to the theaters to find out what happens. There are lots of people, me included, who intend to see this movie but don't need to see it opening weekend.
Avatar 1 was suppressed by a north east snow storm which kept it from doing 100 million and Avatar is no longer new IP so you’d expect it to open higher and have shorter legs. No comparison in this films legs should be made to Avatars either for good or bad.

I do agree that especially the PLFs will make this leg out more as you can see it if you just poke around theatres seat availability. Sold out IMAX and lots of room in conventional 2D. I also agree that the lack of social engagement relative to a MCU or Star Wars movie is much lower so that no spoiler mindset isn’t there. All these things plus Christmas should contribute to long legs.

I think an interesting movie to watch for comparison is Rouge one’s domestics performance. It opened on the same day in December had a similar open (155m) and did 3.43. Avatar needs to outperform this number to be successful. An equivalent performance gets it to about 1.5 billion. Both are not quite tier 1 IP and not spoiler driven.

Rouge 1 had a 53.3% Sunday to Monday drop and Monday was 11.3% of the weekend gross. So 17m by the first metric or 15m by the second. Compared to Rogue 1 it’s already having better Sat and Sunday drops so if today is closer to 17 than 15 I think we can safely say 1.5 is the floor.

Last edited by GGG; 12-19-2022 at 08:56 AM.
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Old 12-19-2022, 10:10 AM   #639
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Yeah, there's not really any way to call Avatar a hit or a disappointment until the end of December, at least. Then we'll see what kind of legs it's looking at having. The box office environment has definitely changed a lot since the first in 2009. $134m certainly isn't huge in a post-MCU world - in 2009 that would've been the #5 opening weekend of all time, in 2022 it's not even the #5 opening weekend of the year. It will come down to does Avatar play like a typical MCU movie / franchise movie or does it play like Top Gun did in the summer?
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Old 12-19-2022, 10:21 AM   #640
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I wonder if it’ll have the same word of mouth “you have to see this in the theatre in 3D” that the first one had. For me that’s a yes but I’m not sure how pervasive that’ll be. Will people be convinced or will they think 3D is now a novelty? The first one was so unique that way.

I think this one is a much larger leap forward from the original but I’m not sure FOMO will work as well this time around. Then again, it’s been so long since the original, I feel like there’s a whole new generation of kids who never got to experience the original and be wowed by a theatre experience like this.

I’m genuinely curious to see how it plays out.



As an aside, I fell kinda sorry for people who see this in theatres that don’t have recliners. Good lord that would suck.
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