Quote:
Originally Posted by Bingo
No Bingo thinks it's highly unlikely any particular team busts terribly far outside the averages for these models.
Listing turnovers for huge scoring chances by the Flames means nothing if you haven't looked at all 32 teams with the same lense and without a bias.
That's all I'm saying.
You have a goalie bias, you have for years, so yeah you seem to want to refute the Flames defense metrics in support of the Calgary goaltenders.
There really isn't any factual stats to back that up.
I'm not saying you're wrong. I'm saying it's unlikely you're right.
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Can you do me a favour?
Please stop with the ‘you’ve got a goalie bias’ as a way to dismiss my point of view. It is weak.
If I have a position on goalies, it’s generally that they get too much credit for their success and their failure. I’ve said before, a team can contribute +/- 10 or so points to sv%, a goalie can contribute maybe +5 or 10, and obviously lower on the minus side if they are really stinking.
And to discuss that, I point to things that aren’t captured in the data. What are reasonable expectations from a goalie, in various situations.
You know full well that the models don’t capture the things I mentioned.
It’s a cop out to say ‘well, to have the opinion that the Flames make more egregious costly mistakes than other teams, you have to watch every game of every team’. Technically, perhaps, but for practical purposes, I watch enough hockey that I am comfortable commenting.
I have seen the Flames lose many games due to bad goals on terrible coverage, and ill timed turnovers. This year, I have noticed massive poor decisions and brain farts that were not there last year.
There are two teams every time the Flames play. I watch all of the Flames games, so have those teams to compare, plus several of other teams. No, you can’t watch every game, but it’s a cop out to say ‘well, every team makes the same amount of mistakes’.
Go ahead and show me the fundamental mistakes by Chicago that resulted in high quality Flames chances. The two I mentioned were basic mistakes that pro players shouldn’t make, and gifted that game to a bad team.
There are several games where the Flames have out shot, but lost because they out-mistaked their opponent (yeah that’s a word now)
The goalies have had their stinkers, but the team D has left them hung out to dry more often than the good teams do to their goalies.
And again, these models and the capturing of the egregious mistakes I’m talking about are fully 100% independent.
It is not meaningful to point to the model, and say anything about the likelihood of teams busting outside them. Because I’m talking about something that the model doesn’t actually claim to measure
Just because it’s not measured does not mean it is not happening.
The Flames are exactly where they are in the standings because of costly mistakes. The models may show them being ‘better’ than they actually are. But they are right where they belong. Below expectations
