Matthew Tkachuk contract negotiations

[Huntsy]

4 years x 7M. No more than that. 8 years at 9 M would hold Flames in a bad spot for years..

[TheScorpion]

Originally Posted by Huntsy

4 years x 7M. No more than that. 8 years at 9 M would hold Flames in a bad spot for years..

I'd rather pay extra money to Tkachuk than to more unsuccessful UFAs.

[Macho0978]

Originally Posted by Erick Estrada

If Tkachuk wants $9.5 million a season I start shopping him around the league because he's not a $9.5 million player. He is a really good complementary player that does a lot of things well but one thing he doesn't is one of the most important things which is skating. Not going to get overly excited about this as we aren't privy to the negotiations and don't know what the team/player are looking at in regards to term, etc.

I agree. Tkachuk is a very good player but similar to Monahan hes neither fast or over physical. I can see it if he was a bit slow but an absolute beast to handle in front of the net or along boards. He doesn't have the size similar to rantanen has to push back against guys like zadorov. Lack of speed and size puts him outside elite level player. 6 years between 7 and 7.5 is fair imo. Not enough stock put into scoring being elevated across the league and 75 points this year is similar to 60 to 65 2 years ago.

[delayedreflex]

IMO, the Matthews and Nylander contracts are pretty inflated, and all of the other GMs in the league are probably cursing Dubas' name.

Teams that locked down core RFA players in 2016/2017 are laughing now. Barkov, MacKinnon, Scheifele, Monahan, Gaudreau, Pastrnak were all locked down to 6+year contracts at <10% of the cap (mostly between 8-9%). Tkachuk IMO will have a hard time convincing anyone that he is more important than these guys, so 9% of the upcoming cap hit (expected to be $83M) seems like the upper limit of what is reasonable. $7.3-7.5M for 5-6 years is what I think it will come in at, potentially structured to hold to the Gio cap for the next 3 years (eg. $6.75M for next 3 years, $8.25M for following 3 years to make it $45M over 6 years).

Also:

Originally Posted by transplant99

But isn't that the crux of the discussion?

What IS his value?

I believe that he will look for something between Matthews and whatever Laine/Marner get, and rightfully so.

That number is going to be 9 million or so...maybe a bit more. Matthews at 11.5 sort of set the bar although he scores more and is a C. Marner wont settle for 3 million less than his team mate that he has outpointed since they came in together. So that puts him at 9+. Laine had a weird year but again goal scorers get paid. All this is to say, that Matthew is going to get paid very very well.

So, are we OK with a 5/6 year $9.5 million per deal? Cause that will be the kind of money he is looking for.

Disagree that Tkachuk deserves more than Laine/Marner, or even the same. Marner outscores Tkachuk by a pretty significant margin (both regular season and the playoffs, and both this season and over the course of their careers so far), and Laine, while having a similar PPG to Tkachuk over his career is weighted pretty heavily towards goal scoring which is valued more. Tkachuk's intangibles (eg. better defensive play and agitator attributes) aren't enough to bring up his value to those two, IMO. I also think that $9M/yr should be the upper limit for Marner (otherwise you're making Draisatl look like a great deal), but who knows with Dubas.

[Harry Lime]

I think that Tkachuk played himself out of the 8Mx6 range during the playoffs and now is firmly in the 7Mx6 range.

Or I should be more specific and say that he could have played him into an extra million per year, the way that Bennett did.

Tkachuk isn't going to be too much more than Lindholm.

[Winsor_Pilates]

I think Tkachuk will argue he put up points largely carrying his line offensively and playing against the other team's top guys.
He'd have 2 OT playoff assists if his linemates could raise the puck.

How many points would he have got if he was 1st line with Johnny & Mony all season?

I'd be surprised if it's under $8M per, but depends on the term too.

[GioforPM]

Originally Posted by Winsor_Pilates

I think Tkachuk will argue he put up points largely carrying his line offensively and playing against the other team's top guys.

How many points would he have got if he was 1st line with Johnny & Mony?

I'd be surprised if it's under $8M per, but depends on the term too.

I'm betting not much more than Lindholm. That line was pretty much at their peak production.

[transplant99]

I would LOVE to see MT signed at 7M per...that seems exceedingly unlikely though....like...why would he?

He hasn't signed a big dollar deal before, so why would he give what would amount to a 10+ million dollar discount over 5 years, when his comparables (many TBD for sure) are all earning more?

This is business. Treliving is as good as it gets in the league when it comes to this part of the job, I'm not suggesting otherwise. That business has changed however...it started with the Draisaitl deal then was re-enforced a bit with the Nylander deal, got worse with the Matthews deal and we will see the fallout from all of it this summer. MT will be a part of that group and there is nothing Treliving can do to change it. The rules changed....for everyone.

If they can get Tkachuk signed to 8 per for 6 years...it will be a value deal in comparison to others IMO. We just wont really notice it until a couple years have passed.

[Vinny01]

People that want to keep the term short I have a question for you.

Are you happy that we signed Gaudreau to a 6 year deal as opposed to an 8 year deal that would have come in around $8M per? Based on where salaries have gone the 8 year deal would be a complete steal at $8M. The team would still have 5 years of term left. We are currently halfway through the Gaudreau contract and have 1 playoff win to show for it. The clock is ticking on either trading him, lose him for nothing, or get to pay him $10M+ for his 29-36 age seasons.

I think the Flames should go for the 8 year deal but knowing Treliving he loves that 6 year term (Gaudreau, Giordano, Backlund, Lindholm, Hanifin)

[GioforPM]

Originally Posted by Vinny01

People that want to keep the term short I have a question for you.

Are you happy that we signed Gaudreau to a 6 year deal as opposed to an 8 year deal that would have come in around $8M per? Based on where salaries have gone the 8 year deal would be a complete steal at $8M. The team would still have 5 years of term left. We are currently halfway through the Gaudreau contract and have 1 playoff win to show for it. The clock is ticking on either trading him, lose him for nothing, or get to pay him $10M+ for his 29-36 age seasons.

I think the Flames should go for the 8 year deal but knowing Treliving he loves that 6 year term (Gaudreau, Giordano, Backlund, Lindholm, Hanifin)

I'm not sure this is an argument in favour of a longer term.

[Vinny01]

Originally Posted by GioforPM

I'm not sure this is an argument in favour of a longer term.

Why is that? It’s all Johnny’s fault?

2 years wasted with Gulutzan so there goes 1/3 of the deal. Outside of the first year when he struggled he put up 84 and 99pts. Gladly pay $8M per season for that production.

I was never a fan of going only 6 years with Johnny. He is our franchise player they should have maxed him out. I don’t want the same thing to happen with Tkachuk. I would rather the Flames pay him $9.5M for 8 years than $7.5M for 6. I probably wouldn’t feel this way if I thought both Tkachuk and Gaudreau were locks to re-sign here.

[Dajazz]

Monahan/Gaudreau/Giordano money adjusted for cap inflation. So 6.75 and then some change for six years.

[GioforPM]

Originally Posted by Vinny01

Why is that? It’s all Johnny’s fault?

2 years wasted with Gulutzan so there goes 1/3 of the deal. Outside of the first year when he struggled he put up 84 and 99pts. Gladly pay $8M per season for that production.

I was never a fan of going only 6 years with Johnny. He is our franchise player they should have maxed him out. I don’t want the same thing to happen with Tkachuk. I would rather the Flames pay him $9.5M for 8 years than $7.5M for 6. I probably wouldn’t feel this way if I thought both Tkachuk and Gaudreau were locks to re-sign here.

How did I say it was all his fault? But he played his part in it. That said, does the result look better at $8M?

You also assume Johnny just signs an 8 year deal. I think he wanted the shorter term as well. So you might as well save money if that's the way it's going.

[oldschoolcalgary]

for a while i thought Tkachuk was treading to a 8.5-9 dollar range...

but he did tail off towards the end of the year.

I also believe that contracts are skewing shorter... so i think Tkachuk will fall into the 5 year range....

my guess is also 5years at 7.5 million, which skews low i realize, but hoping BT is able to continue his great record on contracts

[Corral]

The Flames have a thing for an 'internal' cap on salaries. I can't see why they would break that rule for Tkachuk, which means he will be limited by what the captain earns and will be offered something similar to the JG and SM deals. Keith Tkachuk won't like it, and Matthew will be sitting out in the Fall. One can see that on the horizon already with his comments this week. Or maybe some team throws him an offer sheet?

[Vinny01]

Originally Posted by GioforPM

How did I say it was all his fault? But he played his part in it. That said, does the result look better at $8M?

You also assume Johnny just signs an 8 year deal. I think he wanted the shorter term as well. So you might as well save money if that's the way it's going.

I didn’t say you said that I asked if that is what you meant by your one line comment I quoted.

The result is the result but the future certainly looks better with 5 years of term remaining on Johnny’s deal as opposed to 3. I do make the assumption that there was a possibility to go 8 years which may not have been the case. Considering the extra money Treliving has spent elsewhere over those 3 years on Brouwer and Neal it is not like those cap savings are helping the team.

[Vinny01]

Originally Posted by Corral

The Flames have a thing for an 'internal' cap on salaries. I can't see why they would break that rule for Tkachuk, which means he will be limited by what the captain earns and will be offered something similar to the JG and SM deals. Keith Tkachuk won't like it, and Matthew will be sitting out in the Fall. One can see that on the horizon already with his comments this week. Or maybe some team throws him an offer sheet?

You can’t believe the Flames are going to dig in on the internal cap do you?

Gio signed his deal 4 years ago that number has gone up. Tkachuk signs an offer sheet before accepting the Giordano/Gaudreau cap imo.

[Winsor_Pilates]

On Sportsnet or TSN yesterday, they were taking about his contact likely being based on % of cap.

That way it's less that Johnny's % was when he signed, more than Monahans, but a higher $$ value since the cap is higher.

That made a lot of sense and put him close to 9% or $7.5M.

[TurdFerguson]

Originally Posted by Winsor_Pilates

On Sportsnet or TSN yesterday, they were taking about his contact likely being based on % of cap.

That way it's less that Johnny's % was when he signed, more than Monahans, but a higher $$ value since the cap is higher.

That made a lot of sense and put him close to 9% or $7.5M.

I've always wondered why players are not looking for deals like that, based on % of cap. Is there a CBA rule against that? Why has this never happened?

[Flamenspiel]

Originally Posted by Winsor_Pilates

I think Tkachuk will argue he put up points largely carrying his line offensively and playing against the other team's top guys.
He'd have 2 OT playoff assists if his linemates could raise the puck.

How many points would he have got if he was 1st line with Johnny & Mony all season?

I'd be surprised if it's under $8M per, but depends on the term too.

Probably not too many if he joined after the all-star break. I think he is what he is, certainly the player will improve but these discussions always overstate the cap hit and then end with "what a bargain Tre negotiated". So I'll say between 6.5 and 7.5.