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Old 03-12-2019, 07:40 AM   #41
TorqueDog
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Originally Posted by OMG!WTF! View Post
Pretty sure I wouldn't fly on one. Two similar crashes in five months seems abnormal to me.
The problem is that the 737 Max 8 has such a small sample size relative to the previous model 737 that two crashes in ~500,000 makes it an outlier.

Still. That's 4 flights per million. Not quite lottery odds, but still nowhere near a statistical likelihood, or something that should influence an individual traveling somewhere.

Then again, this is coming from a guy who used to YouTube "World's Scariest Plane Landings" before he started flying for work, because I figured if a plane can land with its front landing gear turned sideways, then I felt a lot better about the chances of lesser anomalies being a concern.

Video for those who want to watch it inline:
Spoiler!
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Old 03-12-2019, 08:00 AM   #42
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Originally Posted by TorqueDog View Post
The problem is that the 737 Max 8 has such a small sample size relative to the previous model 737 that two crashes in ~500,000 makes it an outlier.

Still. That's 4 flights per million. Not quite lottery odds, but still nowhere near a statistical likelihood, or something that should influence an individual traveling somewhere.

Then again, this is coming from a guy who used to YouTube "World's Scariest Plane Landings" before he started flying for work, because I figured if a plane can land with its front landing gear turned sideways, then I felt a lot better about the chances of lesser anomalies being a concern.

I understand air travel is safe and 737 max planes are probably safer than my car. But the statistic behind two similar crashes in this number of flights is abnormal. That's why the plane is being grounded. Abnormality is much more important than overall odds. The odds relative to the norm is where the problem is.
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Old 03-12-2019, 08:10 AM   #43
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Well the trickle effect from other countries will most likely start impacting North American carriers using Max 8s as now the UK has banned them from landing and grounding them.

Quote:
The United Kingdom on Tuesday banned airlines from flying Boeing 737 Max 8 planes into or out of its airports as global pressure mounted to halt flights of the U.S. aircraft giant's hottest-selling model.
https://amp.usatoday.com/amp/3137819002
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Old 03-12-2019, 08:14 AM   #44
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Well the trickle effect from other countries will most likely start impacting North American carriers using Max 8s as now the UK has banned them from landing and grounding them.



https://amp.usatoday.com/amp/3137819002
Story I read was that the UK banned them from their airspace period.
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Old 03-12-2019, 09:20 AM   #45
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Good aviation journalist Jon Ostrower wrote about the MCAS system on the MAX last year:


https://theaircurrent.com/aviation-s...em-mcas-jt610/
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Old 03-12-2019, 09:26 AM   #46
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https://www.washingtonpost.com/busin...=.4479fb8ad517

https://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-46373125

These articles are from October and November, both blaming Boeing's software decision and that there were no override mechanism to stop the Lion Air plane from nosediving. Instead Boing blamed the reputation of Lion Air and training. Heck even though Ethiopian Airlines is very reputable and could be as safe to fly as Air Canada, because it is from a 3rd world country, people automatically stereotyped. Crashes in Indonesia and Ethiopia, general public automatically dismisses it, believing these planes are held up with bubble gum

Quote:
That end came after a battle between its flight crew and a computerized control system that repeatedly tilted the plane downward because of a malfunctioning sensor, according to the report.

Correcting the path of the plane would have required a multistep process, something that pilots and other aeronautics experts said may have been difficult to remember and execute during a life-threatening emergency.

Members of the Lion Air flight crew repeatedly attempted to manually arrest the plane’s dive, but the system reasserted itself each time. The crew lost control of the jet, which struck the water at 450 miles per hour, the report found.
Does that sound like an automated system you want to risk your life on?

How it it go on for 6 months before finally being forced to react after a 2nd crash is beyond me (and Boeing still hasn't grounded the 737 Max voluntarily).

And sorry, I don't trust full automation subject to malfunction over common sense.

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Old 03-12-2019, 09:46 AM   #47
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So it looks like in addition to UK and China, Australia has also grounded them. Australia doesn't operate any, but has some airlines that fly in using them. Will be interesting to see if any other countries join the list.
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Old 03-12-2019, 09:48 AM   #48
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From another thread, which may freak some, there are lots of incidents that never make the news, but only start coming out of the woodwork and show serious significance when crashes occur.

https://www.flightglobal.com/news/ar...cident-453805/

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It had been operating to Toronto from Punta Cana, in the Dominican Republic, when the incident occurred on 14 November.

Transportation Safety Board of Canada says the aircraft had been cruising at 35,000ft when the crew received “erroneous” indications on the captain’s side.

The first officer’s instruments, and the standby indicators, were functioning normally and the first officer took control of the aircraft.

It descended to 25,000ft as a precaution, in order to clear instrument meteorological conditions, but – as it passed 28,000ft – the weather radar and collision-avoidance system both failed. The aircraft was some 50nm north-west of Washington DC at the time.

The crew transmitted a ‘pan pan’ urgency call. The safety board says a left-side inertial reference system fault light also illuminated.
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Old 03-12-2019, 09:55 AM   #49
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This is the simulator training for it, from what I found elsewhere. Start at 2:50. It looks incredibly simple to fix if you know what to do.





And this is an article from November


https://theaircurrent.com/aviation-s...em-mcas-jt610/


Sorry, can't copy text, but at the end of the article Boeing explains why they didn't tell pilots about the new system. The reason being they didn't want to overwhelm them with info. Sorry, but that sounds like a really bad reason. They are pros. They should be able to handle this extra info. I wonder if that lands them in legal trouble.
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Old 03-12-2019, 09:56 AM   #50
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While I think Boeing should have informed pilots about the characteristics of the MCAS system, I'm also going to reference a post by Fuzz on the first page.

His brother (a pilot) said that it's easy to tell on the 737 if the stabilizer trim is out of whack. Whether it's a MAX with MCAS or an NG (737-700/800/900) without it, it doesn't matter. Runaway trim is runaway trim - the trim wheel on the 737 makes a lot of noise, and if it's doing something it's not supposed to, the automatic/electric trim can be disabled with the flick of two switches.

https://theaircurrent.com/aviation-s...em-mcas-jt610/

It's way too early to be jumping to conclusions and saying that JT610 and ET302 are identical incidents. The aircraft in the Lion Air crash was potentially not airworthy, and maintenance practices at Lion have come under scrutiny.

Not to mention the comments already made about pilot training and safety standards in third world countries, and how easy it is to disable the automatic trim. Until both investigations are completed, it's irresponsible to suggest grounding every 737 MAX in the world, or to suggest that the plane is a death trap.

https://www.cbc.ca/news/politics/eth...nada-1.5051663

(Disclaimer: I'm not a pilot, just an armchair aviation geek, so I can only give you what I interpret based on what I'm reading about the situation. I'm just getting a little tired of all the fear-mongering that the media is doing)
You're hilariously downplaying the importance of this. There's no way on god's green earth WestJet isn't concerned about this and aren't discussing grounding the fleet voluntarily before Transport Canada mandates they do. I guarantee all the communications are already written with press releases, internal memos and call center scripts explaining the decision behind grounding the fleet out of an abundance of caution, etc.

There has probably already been an internal memo about how WestJet offers its condolences to the families affected by this incident and to its colleagues in the industry for this horrible tragedy, but you are confident in your maintenance team and the safety of the aircraft. Scripts to allay guest fears if they're booked on a 737 Max 8 are being parroted in the call center and customer care right now, I'm sure.

The next memo will be about how even though the initial decision to keep flying the 737 Max 8 was the correct decision given the facts at the time, now the determination has been made to re-accommodate guests on other aircraft while we work with Boeing to ensure we continue to safely operate our aircraft. The scheduling team is working like mad trying to sort all this out right now, and the communications can't go out until a re-accommodation plan is made or Transport Canada forces their hand.

Until we know what caused both crashes, it's irresponsible to continue flying the aircraft.
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Old 03-12-2019, 10:21 AM   #51
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It probably doesn't feel too good to be on one of the planes that was turned back from British airspace for being unsafe!

Iceland, France and Germany have joined the airspace ban as well. You have to think that pretty much forces North America's hand at this point. The public is not going to feel safe flying on planes that are banned in other countries.
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Old 03-12-2019, 10:26 AM   #52
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Quote:
Originally Posted by jar_e View Post
Well the trickle effect from other countries will most likely start impacting North American carriers using Max 8s as now the UK has banned them from landing and grounding them.



https://amp.usatoday.com/amp/3137819002
It will happen very quickly as both WestJet and Air Canada fly the Max8 to the UK from the east coast. Maybe WestJet is seasonal only.

Air Canada showing cancellations today already on Flightaware.

I agree, not sure how Canada and the U.S. can hold out. This will inconvenience WestJet to some degree but really put a crimp on Air Canada and their domestic network.

Last edited by Lubicon; 03-12-2019 at 10:28 AM.
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Old 03-12-2019, 10:27 AM   #53
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Fuzz View Post
This is the simulator training for it, from what I found elsewhere. Start at 2:50. It looks incredibly simple to fix if you know what to do.





And this is an article from November


https://theaircurrent.com/aviation-s...em-mcas-jt610/


Sorry, can't copy text, but at the end of the article Boeing explains why they didn't tell pilots about the new system. The reason being they didn't want to overwhelm them with info. Sorry, but that sounds like a really bad reason. They are pros. They should be able to handle this extra info. I wonder if that lands them in legal trouble.
That article certainly doesn't help. It's basically saying the new system is there to compensate for what is effectively a hardware flaw on the 737 Max after moving the engine for better fuel efficiency. Boeing doesn't tell pilots this program even exists, and that is not cause for concern? I can bet you the existence would not have been mentioned if it wasn't for the crash. Boeing tried to sell 14% better fuel efficiency without the engineering to provide a full hardware solution, and built rushed software that hid this defect, with disastrous results.
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Old 03-12-2019, 10:46 AM   #54
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So ground the world fleet of a particular aircraft when there is no current evidence there is a fault with the design? That’s logical. China being China, who cares. Again, why not let the investigation play out before jumping to any conclusion?
China being China? Is this also UK being the UK now? Australia being Australia?
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Old 03-12-2019, 10:55 AM   #55
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From CNN

https://www.cnn.com/world/live-news/...ash/index.html

Quote:
The pilots of the doomed Ethiopian Airlines flight told air traffic control they were having “flight control problems” before the crash, airline CEO Tewolde GebreMariam told CNN’s Richard Quest Tuesday.

That suggests the plane was not responding to pilots’ inputs and they were losing control of the aircraft, Quest explains.

GebreMariam said the flight data recorders “will be sent overseas,” rather than being read in Ethiopia, which does not have the technical capability to do it. He did not say where, specifically, they would be read.

Pilots were aware of airworthiness directive issued after the Lion Air crash in October and had had additional training, he said.
So training wasn't the problem this time, what is Boeing going to blame it on? The fact the CEO is talking about it this candidly, there doesn't seem to be any indication of pilot or airline error.
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Old 03-12-2019, 11:00 AM   #56
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We will have to see what the recorder says. If it shows the override switches were never thrown, then pilot error looks to be a big part of it. I don't really think a sensor failure fail mode should be "auto-crash" though. That seems like a big oversight.
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Old 03-12-2019, 12:09 PM   #57
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Originally Posted by nfotiu View Post
It probably doesn't feel too good to be on one of the planes that was turned back from British airspace for being unsafe!

Iceland, France and Germany have joined the airspace ban as well. You have to think that pretty much forces North America's hand at this point. The public is not going to feel safe flying on planes that are banned in other countries.
Yup. I have a couple of flights on WestJet next weekend. Spent the last few minutes trying to verify the aircrafts haha. Looks like I'm on 737-700s. Still, I'm paranoid that they might switch the equipment to a MAX or something. I'm usually a pretty good flier considering I struggle with an anxiety disorder. General flying stats are enough to keep me level headed and carefree. However, the recent crashes seem unusual (from an average non av-geek view). New planes, crashed shortly after take-off, Ethiopian is pretty reputable as far as I know etc. Other countries are banning/grounding the models and Canada is just sitting on its hands. Not pleased. I wonder if there's any options should I find out they've switch the planes?
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Old 03-12-2019, 12:18 PM   #58
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Canada is not sitting on it's hands.

Those aircraft are still in the air because the companies involved have analyzed the risks and have come to the conclusion they are still safe to fly. To suggest no one is paying attention or doing anything about it is ignorance.

I'm sure every Max pilot is now well aware of the potential issues and how to override the system.
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Old 03-12-2019, 12:24 PM   #59
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Canada is not sitting on it's hands.

Those aircraft are still in the air because the companies involved have analyzed the risks and have come to the conclusion they are still safe to fly. To suggest no one is paying attention or doing anything about it is ignorance.

I'm sure every Max pilot is now well aware of the potential issues and how to override the system.
Who is saying Canada is sitting on its hands? And the risks haven't been analyzed and can't be until the data recorder is found and downloaded.

Nobody suggested no one is paying attention, though.
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Old 03-12-2019, 12:29 PM   #60
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Who is saying Canada is sitting on its hands? And the risks haven't been analyzed and can't be until the data recorder is found and downloaded.

Nobody suggested no one is paying attention, though.
The post directly above the one you quoted.
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